In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF
- Can Nidec (6594) Ever Wake Up from Its Compliance Nightmare?
- Human Made IPO: Making A Fashion Statement With Premium Valuation
- KIOXIA (285A JP) — Q2 FY25 Update, Selldown Context, and Valuation
- Ohba (9765 Jp) – November 5, 2025
- D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP) – November 21, 2025
- A Global Portfolio Inflation-Stagflation Hedge: Gold and NK Index Volatility
- Who Benefits from Hoarding Cash Without Implementing Measures to Boost Profit Margins?
- Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Label Expansion Drives Leqembi Ahead; Competitive Landscape Turns Favorable
- Digital Hearts Holdings (3676 JP) – Gathering Earnings Momentum
[Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF
- Last week, before the long weekend, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
- The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It’s a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.
- They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.
Can Nidec (6594) Ever Wake Up from Its Compliance Nightmare?
- Until the latest accounting scandal, Nidec was just another stupidly over-valued company that chased too many rainbows and missed too many targets.
- Now, finally, it has fallen to interesting valuations and there is a real incentive to fix the things that need fixing.
- Nidec is a governance nightmare with poor oversight, a history of bad strategic decisions, and shoddy execution. If these are fixed, though, the upside is enormous.
Human Made IPO: Making A Fashion Statement With Premium Valuation
- Human Made (456A JP) raised US$116m in its Japan IPO.
- Human Made Inc. is a Japan-based apparel and lifestyle company. Its business model centers on producing high-value, limited-supply apparel and goods.
- In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.
KIOXIA (285A JP) — Q2 FY25 Update, Selldown Context, and Valuation
- Q2 results confirmed a clear earnings inflection, driven by strong enterprise SSD demand, improving ASPs, and recovering smartphone NAND volumes.
- Q3 guidance signals record revenue and further margin expansion supported by tight NAND supply and AI-linked storage demand.
- Despite near-term pressure from Bain’s selldown, long-term fundamentals remain intact; valuation discounts justify a ¥12,500 target and accumulate-on-weakness stance.
Ohba (9765 Jp) – November 5, 2025
- OHBA (hereafter, the Company) is a general construction consulting firm boasting a leading market share in the field of urban planning.
- In the construction consulting industry, there were 56 companies with annual sales of JPY 5 bn or more and 106 companies with JPY 2 bn or more in the 12 months from January to December 2024.
- The Company ranks 24th, positioning it as a mid-tier player. Over its century-long history, however, the Company has specialized in urban development fields such as city planning, and in this domain, it holds the top domestic market share, ahead of the runner-up, Nippon Koei Urban Space, by just under JPY 1 bn in annual sales.
D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP) – November 21, 2025
- SIR believes DWTI has entered an exciting new phase given significant advances in pipeline development achieved over the last year.
- Key advances included: 1) publishing favorable topline results of in-house developed glaucoma treatment [H- 1337] Phase IIb US trials (strong prospects as “first choice as a second-line drug”)
- 2) commenced joint development Japan Phase II clinical trials of regenerative cell therapy [DWR-2206] with ActualEyes, and successfully completed all transplants
A Global Portfolio Inflation-Stagflation Hedge: Gold and NK Index Volatility
- Gold’s outlook is strongly supported by a dovish Federal Reserve, structural de-dollarization trends, and increasing central bank demand for a strategic stagflation hedge.
- The Nikkei 225’s high is vulnerable to concentrated risk in the technology sector and geopolitical volatility, necessitating a tactical approach to portfolio protection.
- Deep dive into a two-part portfolio-defensive structure, pairing a strategic long-term inflation asset with a short-term volatility hedge on a key equity index.
Who Benefits from Hoarding Cash Without Implementing Measures to Boost Profit Margins?
- For years, overseas investors have raised concerns about management’s lack of awareness regarding fiduciary duty to fulfill corporate value growth and shareholder returns, which are integral to maximizing shareholder interest.
- While the weak yen has certainly increased the “foreign currency translation adjustment” and impacted ROE, it has also had a positive effect on profits.
- Among the three components of ROE, Net Profit Margin showed the highest correlation. There is a problem with accumulating cash on the balance sheet without investing to improve profit margins.
Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Label Expansion Drives Leqembi Ahead; Competitive Landscape Turns Favorable
- Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) recorded153% YoY revenue growth to ¥41B for Leqembi during H1FY26, driven by significant growth in Japan (+177% YoY) and Americas (+84% YoY).
- For FY26, Eisai has guided for Leqembi revenue of ¥77B, up 73% YoY. H1FY26 Leqembi revenue represents progress rate of more than 50%, thereby raising conviction of meeting full-year guidance.
- Recent clinical trial setbacks suffered by two large players, Johnson & Johnson and Novo Nordisk should act in favor of Leqembi.
Digital Hearts Holdings (3676 JP) – Gathering Earnings Momentum
- Q1-2 FY3/26 results were broadly in line with expectations, with OP reaching ¥1.44bn, the highest level at interim in the company’s history.
- The launch of Nintendo Switch 2 provided a strong tailwind to the DH Group, while AGEST Group returned to profitability as overseas restructuring neared completion.
- To further enhance group synergies and accelerate global expansion, the company divested identity last year and acquired HUWIZ SOLUTIONS this year, reshaping its portfolio toward higher-margin and growth-oriented opportunities.
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