In today’s briefing:
- Falling Exchange Inventories and Potential US Tariffs Lift Copper, Glencore Eyes ASX Listing
- Morning Market Notes: Indefinite Stalemate or Will President Trump Run Out of Patience?
- Middle East FX August 7th 2026
- Oil futures: Crude higher amid tense standoff over Strait of Hormuz
- TAC Index Weekly Air Cargo Bulletin 10 August 2026
Falling Exchange Inventories and Potential US Tariffs Lift Copper, Glencore Eyes ASX Listing
- LME and SHFE inventories have plunged 42% and 84% from their peaks, respectively, while COMEX stocks hit 653 kt as traders front-load shipments ahead of potential US tariffs.
- COPX attracted USD 62 Mn of inflows across two trading sessions following a USD 20.2 Mn outflow, as the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates revived investor confidence.
- Glencore’s adjusted copper EBITDA is expected to accelerate by 62% in FY26, while a potential ASX listing could strengthen capital access and unlock fresh M&A opportunities.
Morning Market Notes: Indefinite Stalemate or Will President Trump Run Out of Patience?
- Given yesterday’s rally, oil market participants may believe, correctly in our view, that the Strait of Hormuz will be “closed” indefinitely
- In addition, however, some funds also believe, also possibly correctly, that President Trump will lose patience with “waiting it out” and launch major military strikes down the road.
- We have pulled our recommendation to buy NYMEX CL calendar spreads because the market now believes that the stalemate will last longer than anticipated.
Middle East FX August 7th 2026
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Kuwait’s non-oil PMI jumps back over 50. Saudi’s a touch lower but will over 50.
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Aramco’s Q2 profits jump 42 %.
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97 % occupancy rate for office space in Riyadh.
Oil futures: Crude higher amid tense standoff over Strait of Hormuz
- Crude futures opened the week higher as Iran dug in on its conditions to open the Strait of Hormuz, while investors continued to face uncertainty around the wider geopolitical situation.
- Oct26 ICE Brent futures were 4.5% higher at $87.34/b (2029 BST), versus an intraday high of $87.93/b, while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $81.85/b , up 4.7% versus Friday’s settle.
- Prices firmed after Iran’s Supreme National Security Council set out a list of six conditions over the weekend it says must be met before the Strait of Hormuz can fully reopen.
TAC Index Weekly Air Cargo Bulletin 10 August 2026
- Global air freight rates edged slightly lower overall last week according to the latest data from TAC Index, the leading price reporting agency on air freight markets and calculating agent for the Baltic Air Freight indices.
- The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) eased down -0.2% over the seven days to August 10, leaving it still up +16.9% from 12 months earlier as hopes of a more lasting deal between the US and Iran and potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased some of the recent pressure on crude oil markets and jet fuel prices.
- Rates on the busiest lanes out of China were still slightly higher again WoW both to Europe and to the US.
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