In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Energy Squeezes Tighter
- Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 11 Sep 2026
- CX Daily: AI Distillation in China Leaves U.S. Tech Giants at Odds
HEW: Energy Squeezes Tighter
- Sunken Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi control of Bab-el-Mandeb are compounding the energy supply shock, squeezing prices to highs as hopes hit lows.
- Activity is still remarkably resilient, so the trade-off screams hawkish, causing the ECB to hike and probably go again in December. The BoE seemingly prays for a warm winter.
- Another 6-3 BoE vote to hold is likely, but with two more members open to a November hike. The BOJ is set to hike, and the Fed likely will too.
Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker
- We aggregate the published asset-allocation views of more than 50 asset managers across 70+ assets, highlighting where buy-side consensus is building or breaking down.
- Risk appetite: Four of five RoRo indicators rose, taking the aggregate to the third-highest level in Tracker history, while equity sentiment hit a record +81% net bullish.
- Still not all-in: EM equities, Tech and EM FX are very popular, but safe-haven positioning is less extreme; the Swiss franc is the least popular asset at -46% net bearish.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 11 Sep 2026
- It was with a large pang of sadness this week that we saw the news of the passing of Tung Chee-hua, the first chief executive of Hong Kong post 1997. We were sad not because he was a particularly good leader and that everything in Hong Kong was rosy under his administration, but because he was a perfectly good man with the territory’s best interests at heart.
- On the other hand, the current US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent simply leaves the impression of being arrogant and egotistical. He challenges the markets to take him on as regards what he’s going to do with the bond market and more so with the yen. He says “Don’t mess with my Yen agenda”, but seems to forget he is US Treasury Secretary, not the Finance Minister of Japan (or a hedge fund manager).
- We published a Peregrinations report earlier this week, called Japan: Through AI Glasses. It forms part of the argument behind our long yen call, which at the moment is working because markets are frightened of Bessent and intervention. But it won’t work long term unless the yield differential closes. In our view, the way that it will close is through an accelerated hiking pace by the BoJ, not the way that most analysts expected.
CX Daily: AI Distillation in China Leaves U.S. Tech Giants at Odds
- In Depth: AI Distillation in China Leaves U.S. Tech Giants at Odds
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The U.S. government has leveled sweeping new accusations against China’s leading AI developers, claiming that they are conducting systematic extraction of proprietary functionalities and capabilities of American-developed models through industrial-scale knowledge distillation campaigns.
- China’s Online Lenders See Profits Plunge as New Rules Bite
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