Daily Brief Macro: Iran Gives the US Another Chance at Peace and more

In today’s briefing:

Iran Gives the US Another Chance at Peace
Morning Market Notes: We Await The “End Game”; We Booked a Profit on Our Short RBOB Crack Position
Oil futures: Crude climbs higher as deal to reopen Hormuz stalls

Iran Gives the US Another Chance at Peace

Iran and Oman are completing an agreement on how they will administer the Strait of Hormuz. The US negotiating team has not been part of the discussions.
President Trump is in a weak negotiating position with high inflation and energy prices, declining poll numbers, reduced stockpiles of critical weapons, and elections in 90 days.
The US will need to accept Iran’s terms for administration of the SOH as the cost of delay now exceeds the cost of compromise.

While it appears part of our “implausible plausible” scenario may unfold as expected, the critical part, i.e. President Trump accepting it, has yet to unfold.
Iran indicated that a deal to “manage” the Strait with Oman is close to consummation, while Tehran has indicated that effectively the U.S. “has nothing to do with it.”
Otherwise, on the trading front, we closed out our short Sep NYMEX RBOB position, booking a near $572,000 gross profit for our model energy portfolio.

Crude futures climbed higher over the session on Thursday as investors waited for confirmation of a deal that would allow commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume.
Oct26 ICE Brent futures were 4% higher at $82.66/b (2030 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $77.55/b , up 3.1% versus Wednesday’s settle.
Prices rallied as doubts crept in over a new deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran and Oman reaching an understanding on the logistical coordinates of a proposed shipping route through the waterway.

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