In today’s briefing:
- JAPAN & US YEN SUPPORT: Speak Loudly and Carry a Small Stick
- Morning Market Notes: Perhaps Famous Last Words, But We Believe CL Prices To Be Rangebound From Here
- Global Base Oils Supply Falls To 13-Month Low In May
- Oil futures: Crude eases as US stock build offsets Hormuz risk
- Korea Sector ETFs Weekly #1 [Week Ending 14 August 2026]
- CX Daily: Dating Apps Build a Business Around Catfishing Older Men
- Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 14 August
- HEW: Sticky States
JAPAN & US YEN SUPPORT: Speak Loudly and Carry a Small Stick
- The historic Japan/US intervention to support the JPY at the end of July is already being tested as the yen falls back to the 160 level.
- Intervention methods are limited in scope, and jawboning threats carry limited weight. Each successive intervention since the BOJ began to normalize rates has required greater firepower.
- Hedge funds, traders, and even Japanese investors have already begun rebuilding short yen positions, taking advantage of the stronger yen to reposition.
Morning Market Notes: Perhaps Famous Last Words, But We Believe CL Prices To Be Rangebound From Here
- In the context of yesterday’s discussion, we are increasingly confident that our long-standing estimated trading range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain intact.
- Once again, our estimated peak has been around $88.00 per barrel with the trough at roughly $68.00 per barrel.
- In terms of the trough, our Base Case still expects the fourth quarter to average $68.25 per barrel, versus a temporary bottom during any period of volatility.
Global Base Oils Supply Falls To 13-Month Low In May
- Asia and China accounted for 55% of global supply, maintaining a share above 50% for the ninth straight month despite lower regional output.
- Global demand rose by more than 4% in May, but growth slowed to its weakest pace in 11 months as stock-building eased.
- The global surplus held below year-earlier levels for the eighth time in nine months, with the January-May surplus down by about 35% from the same period in 2025.
Oil futures: Crude eases as US stock build offsets Hormuz risk
- Oil futures were drifting lower on Thursday as a sharp increase in US crude inventories and weaker global demand forecasts offset continuing supply concerns linked to restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- At 2020 London time Oct26 ICE Brent was down 2.4% at $86.88 / b , while Sep26 NYMEX WTI dropped $2.6% to $81.09/b .
- The declines had narrowed from earlier in the Asian session after Brent and WTI fell by more than 2%.
Korea Sector ETFs Weekly #1 [Week Ending 14 August 2026]
- This is our first inaugural issue of Korea Sector ETFs Weekly. There are two main purposes of this weekly insight.
- This weekly report tracks share price performance for Korea’s 23 major sector ETFs. It helps investors identify market trends by revealing exactly which sectors are outperforming or underperforming.
- Second, tracking sector ETF performance reveals early clues about specific catalysts driving higher stock prices for the companies within those ETFs.
CX Daily: Dating Apps Build a Business Around Catfishing Older Men
- In Depth: Dating Apps Build a Business Around Catfishing Older Men A dating app that marketed itself as a way to meet people nearby used a “chat-to-earn” business model to weave female chat operators across China into an organized scam targeting middle-aged and older men.
- The People’s Bank of China signaled plans to diversify loan pricing benchmarks and further refine its short-term interest rate framework in its second quarter monetary policy report released Wednesday.
- U.S. Market Makers Narrow Futu, Tiger Insider-Trading Suit to 45 Individuals
Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 14 August
- Cargo loadings from Taiwan slowed, after a surge in shipments in late July and early August, with one cargo moving to China in recent days.
- A cargo loaded from South Korea in second-half June and reached Brazil in recent days, after a stop in South Africa.
- A large cargo loaded from Singapore in the past week before heading to Fujairah, UAE, set to arrive in second-half August; it is the first such shipment to the UAE since March.
HEW: Sticky States
- Market hopes for the Strait of Hormuz reopening proved premature, renewing energy price pressures even as rates and equities asymmetrically shrug off the hawkish shock.
- US disinflation further dampens the chance that the Fed hikes soon, while a strong end to Q2 challenges the BoE’s dovish assumptions, but probably not to a breaking point.
- UK data releases next week should lower the unemployment rate again to 4.8% and push CPI inflation back up to 3% on belated pass-through to energy utility bills.
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