In today’s briefing:
- Overview #72 – The Accelerant
- Priced in Barrels, But Bringing in Billions- Short USD/INR into the FCNR Window
Overview #72 – The Accelerant
- A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
- The dollar has maintained its breakdown, with positive implications for our themes
- We continue to look for investments not correlated with the AI trade
Priced in Barrels, But Bringing in Billions- Short USD/INR into the FCNR Window
- The market prices the rupee as an oil proxy; data describes capital inflows. The RBI’s swap facilities attracted $40.8bn in two months, fully covering net portfolio flight since late 2024.
- Warsh held against ~35% hike pricing in July. The curve steepened, the 30-year hit 5.27%, and the USD fell — pricing out hawkishness or demanding term premium. Either way, dollar-negative.
- Situational Awareness’s forced liquidation likely marked the low for risk: the Nasdaq is up 9% since, and copper never blinked. Bessent signals Hormuz reopens within days; Brent is below $80.
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