In today’s briefing:
- SNB: Franc Shifts the Balance
- Riksbank Holds Now to Hike Later
- Norway Defies the Doves
- Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (September 2026)
- Malaysia Politics: Ex-PM’s Partial Pardon Leaves Government in Quandary
- Morning Market Notes: Our Fourth Quarter Scenario for the U.S.-Iran Conflict Remains Intact Thus Far
- Oil futures: Crude extends rebound as diplomacy hopes fade
- Five Regimes, One Reaction Function- What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026
- CX Daily: How Paying for Likes Is Becoming a Crime in China
SNB: Franc Shifts the Balance
- The SNB held its policy rate at 0%, as unanimously forecast, judging that higher headline inflation does not yet warrant tightening.
- A weaker franc and elevated energy costs have lifted the inflation path, but forecasts of 0.8% in 2027 and 2028 still support a prolonged hold.
- Rate rises require broader, persistent inflation; renewed franc strength or weaker global demand would instead reinforce the 0% floor.
Riksbank Holds Now to Hike Later
- The Riksbank held at 1.75%, as unanimously expected, but its higher rate path confirms a 2026 increase in the base case, with more in 2027.
- Stronger demand, a weaker krona and higher energy costs raise second-round inflation risks, despite underlying inflation remaining near 2%.
- Future hikes hinge on adjusted inflation, demand and labour-market resilience, the krona, energy prices and fiscal policy.
Norway Defies the Doves
- The Norges Bank hiked by 25bp to 4.50% in a hawkish move relative to a dovishly split consensus that had leaned towards a hold after soft summer inflation.
- Policymakers looked through a CPI-ATE undershoot, citing sticky business costs, energy prices and global tightening; the rate path is to stay higher for longer.
- Risks are two-sided: further hikes if inflation persists, but a faster turn to cut if disinflation resumes; Norway is likely near its cycle peak.
Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (September 2026)
- The Hong Kong market continues to drift sideways this month, trading above its long-term support levels but unable to rally past strong resistance at 27100.
- The healthcare and materials sectors have been the only positive performers since August. Large-cap and value factors have consistently outperformed YTD.
- JOINN Laboratories (6127 HK) had an engulfing breakout earlier in the month. The H1 2026 backlog surged 61% to CNY 3.7bn, with newly signed orders nearly doubling.
Malaysia Politics: Ex-PM’s Partial Pardon Leaves Government in Quandary
- Malaysia’s king granted imprisoned ex-prime minister Najib Razak a conditional pardon reducing his sentence to house arrest, triggering a long-simmering flashpoint in the political scene.
- UMNO notches a symbolic win in securing its former leader’s release, but this risks reviving public memory of the corruption scandals that cost it in previous elections.
- Anwar’s coalition is on the back foot: the prime minister has to balance between his angry reform-leaning base and the coalition partners, adding strain heading into the 2028 election window.
Morning Market Notes: Our Fourth Quarter Scenario for the U.S.-Iran Conflict Remains Intact Thus Far
- Our view of the U.S.-Iran conflict remains that in terms of a “deal,” we will believe it when we see it in tandem with the possibility of renewed military strikes.
- In this context, we believed that once October NYMEX CL expired, we suggested support for the November contract at roughly $90.00-$92.00 per barrel.
- Thus far we have been effectively on the mark, but we fully concede there remains much uncertainty in either direction between now and the end of the year.
Oil futures: Crude extends rebound as diplomacy hopes fade
- Crude oil futures continued to pull away from weekly lows on Thursday as initial optimism around renewed talks between the US and Iran receded, with little progress made.
- Nov26 ICE Brent futures were 4.4% higher at $107.56/b (2030 BST), having peaked at $106.50/b, while Nov26 NYMEX WTI was at $95.47/b , up 3.6% versus Wednesday’s settle.
- Diplomatic hopes and improving supplies had been pressuring oil prices in the first half of the week, analysts said, with initial signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations and the partial restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline helping ease concerns over balances.
Five Regimes, One Reaction Function- What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026
- The dollar reacted to one macro factor all year, with a sensitivity statistically indistinguishable across five regimes; what changed was which driver moved the factor and whether others followed it.
- Gold led before the Iran war, VIX during it and again in the fiscal-dominance weeks; since Jackson Hole the dollar has traded the factor itself, led by the front end.
- A dollar factor and the same macro drivers explain 72%-85% of every G10 currency except the yen; beyond the dollar, NOK traded oil, CAD the BoC, NZD the RBNZ.
CX Daily: How Paying for Likes Is Becoming a Crime in China
- In Depth: How Paying for Likes Is Becoming a Crime in China
- China’s courts are grappling with how to punish the growing business of artificially inflating views, likes, comments and other engagement to make merchants and products appear more popular than they are.
- Chinese Fugitives Allegedly Faked Jewish Ancestry to Gain German Citizenship
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
