In today’s briefing:
- The Treasury Put, Financial Stability and the Road to Fiscal Dominance
- Asian Equities: Valuations Look Interesting Again, Forward Earnings Outstripping Several Markets
- Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins
- Trump’s Iran D-Day: Why “Operation Economic Outcast Is D.O.A.”
- Morning Market Notes: Oil Prices Are Telling One Story, Our Energy Equities May Be Telling Another
- Oil futures: Crude slides lower, muted reaction to new Iran sanctions
- Morning Market Notes: Impact Of “Economic Outcast” On Iran’s Resolve: Believe It When We See It
- TAC Index Weekly Air Cargo Bulletin 24.AUGUST.2026
- Energy Weekly (W/E 21/Aug): WTI Rallies on Hormuz, Skew Eases, TotalEnergies Builds Cash
- CX Daily Aug. 25: China Tech Firms Drive AI Data Center Boom in Southeast Asia
The Treasury Put, Financial Stability and the Road to Fiscal Dominance
- Three Treasury interventions in three weeks, EUR/JPY sales, FIMA request, doubled buybacks, read as term premium suppression. The Treasury put looks to have a higher strike than the Fed put.
- Rising term premium squeezes the Treasury twice: it inflates the interest bill, and it threatens equities, the one asset class keeping US financial conditions loose. Debt management becomes financial stability.
- Japan’s bill buffer is spent. The next yen defence sells coupons into the long end or borrows through FIMA. By 16 September the cap has moved or it hasn’t.
Asian Equities: Valuations Look Interesting Again, Forward Earnings Outstripping Several Markets
- In late May we argued that Asia was fully valued and awaited correction. That correction has happened over past two months with Asia’s forward PE declining from 15.1x to 12.7x.
- Some markets have corrected more and have had significant EPS upgrades. These markets should catch up with their earnings trajectory, Korea and Onshore China in particular. HK looks undervalued too.
- Indonesia, though affected by governance-related concerns and fiscal worries, seems cheaper than the headwinds warrant. Other Asian markets are in “no man’s land”: not too expensive, not egregiously cheap either.
Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins
- LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.
- Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.
- The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).
Trump’s Iran D-Day: Why “Operation Economic Outcast Is D.O.A.”
- The US unveiled new policies to impose secondary sanctions on countries that have trade or other relationships with Iran. These policies assert US control over any nation’s financial sovereignty.
- Iran’s most consequential trading partner is China, and the US has not sanctioned any major Chinese company or bank because of the risk of “blowing up the global economy.”
- As in the military conflict, the US is overplaying its hand and risks substantial global economic consequences by pursuing short-term, impulsive policies rather than proper negotiations to achieve long-term objectives.
Morning Market Notes: Oil Prices Are Telling One Story, Our Energy Equities May Be Telling Another
- The oil market continued its selloff under the belief that a return to the negotiating table is likely, but again, we will believe it when we see it.
- • Our energy equities may be telling a bit different story, however, generally holding up better than the commodity thus far.
- While the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract remains in our “no-man’s land,” we are buyers in December if October falls below $80.00 per barrel toward our $75.00 per barrel trough.
Oil futures: Crude slides lower, muted reaction to new Iran sanctions
- Crude oil futures retreated for a second session on Tuesday amid a relatively calm reaction to the latest round of US sanctions on Iran, although regional tensions remain high.
- Oct26 ICE Brent futures were 3.9% lower at $88.53/b (2030 BST), while Oct26 NYMEX WTI was at $82.24/b , down 3.3% versus Monday’s settle.
- The US Treasury Department has broadened the list of entities and tankers sanctioned by Washington as part of Operation Economic Outcast, which plans to isolate Tehran from the global financial system.
Morning Market Notes: Impact Of “Economic Outcast” On Iran’s Resolve: Believe It When We See It
- Scott Bessent’s “D-Day” did not offer much thus far in terms of the details of new sanctions against Iran and involving any nation that deals with Iran.
- Right or wrong, our Iranian sources are not concerned about any incremental economic or financial impact beyond that currently in effect.
- Yesterday’s oil market selloff appeared to reflect the belief that this “brinkmanship” will lead to a return to the negotiating table, but we will believe it when we see it.
TAC Index Weekly Air Cargo Bulletin 24.AUGUST.2026
- Global air freight rates edged slightly lower last week as the often quieter late summer season continued according to the latest data from TAC Index, the leading price reporting agency on air freight markets and calculating agent for the Baltic Air Freight indices.
- The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) declined narrowly by -0.2% over seven days to August 24, leaving it still higher by +21.0% from 12 months earlier
- With ongoing tensions in the Middle East, disruption to ocean traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and high jet fuel prices continuing to keep rates up at relatively elevated levels.
Energy Weekly (W/E 21/Aug): WTI Rallies on Hormuz, Skew Eases, TotalEnergies Builds Cash
- WTI rallied 6.6% last week as U.S.-Iran tensions kept a geopolitical premium embedded, before reversing on 24/Aug as markets priced in formally announced sanctions.
- Options positioning turned cautiously constructive as falling implied volatility unwound the risk premium, while energy ETF gains stayed concentrated in upstream names over utilities.
- TotalEnergies posted strong Q2 cash generation on higher prices and refining margins, strengthening its balance sheet while reshaping its portfolio toward LNG, power and reduced Russia exposure.
CX Daily Aug. 25: China Tech Firms Drive AI Data Center Boom in Southeast Asia
- Cover Story: China Tech Firms Drive AI Data Center Boom in Southeast Asia Inside the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre on a hot and humid day in July, the Data Center Asia event was packed.
- The crowd included Chinese data center operators, colocation providers and suppliers of energy and liquid-cooling systems.
- But Southeast Asian companies were just as visible.
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