Daily Brief Macro: Wintering Slows Ivory Coast Rubber Exports and more

Highlights

• 2026 Q2 exports fall 13% QoQ to 422,000 tons, but remained 1% above last year

• China imports dropped 24% QoQ, while Turkey boosted purchases by 29%

• AFR10 rallies on tight supply before macro-driven correction erases gains

• With the 60-day negotiating period now history, as we fully anticipated absolutely nothing has been accomplished between the U.S. and Iran.
• On the contrary, as we also have suggested in previous reports, there is a reasonably high probability that the stalemate could well continue through at least the end of 2026.  
• Despite no indication that traffic through the Strait will pick up significantly, we believe that the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain in a $75.00-$88.00 per barrel trading range.        

• Following the inception of the World Trade Organisation, working capital demands in the G7 fell as production was offshored. Higher investment rates could put upward pressure on G7 bond yields.
• National security concerns are increasingly driving international economic policy. The pivot towards onshoring the production of strategically important industries will drive investment rates higher.
• The large AI investment requirements of the hyperscalers will boost corporate credit demand, potentially putting upward pressure on US Treasury yields and could potential crowd out other corporate borrowers.       

• CPI ticks higher in July! CBE ought to leave rates unchanged next week.                                       
• Most analysts see the Pound ending the year firmer.       
• Summer heatwave hits the markets.

• In Depth: How Gamed AI Answers Can Lead Investors Astray
• When China Central Television used its annual consumer-rights program in March to show how artificial intelligence (AI) could be manipulated to present pure fiction as fact, the state broadcaster showed an industry insider conjuring a product out of thin air.
• Harry Chun Tak Yeh, a veteran cryptocurrency investor and founder of Quantum Fintech Group, died after falling naked from a luxury high-rise apartment in Paraguay’s capital early Aug.7, local media reported.

• US markets gyrated wildly beneath the surface in July and we recently found out a key reason why; a young, inexperienced and wildly over-leveraged trader from the West coast was in the process of being ‘taken out’ by the seasoned hunting dogs of Wall St.

• What we saw as software stocks surged and plunged while hardware stocks followed was the killing process.

• However, we see this as part of a much bigger turf war over who gets to create money. 

• Summer seasonality is providing some relief to the tight base oils market, with slower lubricant demand helping offset the loss of Middle East supply and allowing the market to operate with a thinner surplus

• The underlying supply position remains tight, with Middle East disruptions continuing to remove significant volumes and Group III availability still under the greatest pressure.

• Asia’s June supply fell faster than lubricant demand, cutting the regional surplus sharply and leaving less spare material to absorb stronger requirements later in the year.

• Crude futures initially were mixed but ultimately moved higher in a choppy trading session on Friday as the market priced renewed US threats against Iran and lingering pressure from a large build in US inventories and weaker demand forecasts.
• At 2024 London time, Oct26 ICE Brent was up 1.7%   at $88.55/b , while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was up 1.4% to $82.37/b .
• Brent had fallen to an Asian-session low of $86.20/b before recovering as trading progressed to a high of $88.69/b during the European session.

• Everyone is talking El Nino, but the textbook regional fingerprints in North and South America are nowhere to be found.
• That is not the thesis breaking down – it is the calendar. The Indian monsoon shows why.
• El Nino is everywhere in commodity conversation right now, and our own data points to this cycle running strong.