In today’s briefing:
- WEEKLY Tactical Recap: Samsung Electronics, CATL, Gold, Softbank Group, NetEase, BHP, POSCO Holdings
- SK Hynix (000660 KS): 2x Leveraged ETF Redemptions Compound 13% August Index Loss
- SK Hynix: CEO Sees Shortage Through 2030. Big Profits Continues, Yet Still Trades at ~6x PE
- Samyang Foods (003230 KS): The Capacity-Constrained Compounder; Initiate BULLISH
WEEKLY Tactical Recap: Samsung Electronics, CATL, Gold, Softbank Group, NetEase, BHP, POSCO Holdings
- Our WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
- We apply our quantitative models to each instrument’s trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.
- Most overbought: BHP Group Ltd, POSCO Holdings, Bank of China, Hitachi Ltd. Most oversold: NetEase Cloud Music, Samsung Electronics, Meituan, Gold, Softbank Group, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL)
SK Hynix (000660 KS): 2x Leveraged ETF Redemptions Compound 13% August Index Loss
- SK hynix (000660 KS) fell 3.8% in August MTD, while its 2x Leveraged Index declined 13.4% and combined KRX-listed ETF AUM fell 28% to KRW 3.8tn.
- The seven KRX-listed 2x long ETFs recorded combined net outflows of KRW 763bn, with units outstanding declining in six products and redemptions amplifying negative performance.
- Daily flows in the long and inverse ETFs were negatively correlated, causing associated hedge flows to reinforce rather than offset each other, although the larger long products dominate the effect.
SK Hynix: CEO Sees Shortage Through 2030. Big Profits Continues, Yet Still Trades at ~6x PE
- What he said. At the 27 Aug Indiana groundbreaking, CEO Kwak Noh-jung said the memory shortage runs through end-2030 with no downturn signal visible. He was serious on this.
- What it is worth. If right, FY2027E OP is ~KRW 295tn vs our KRW 250tn base, and FY2026-30 after-tax earnings exceeds its current MCAP.
- What to do. BULLISH, FV KRW 3,500,000 unchanged — it needs him right on 2027 only as the market is treating the stock as if earnings have peaked already.
Samyang Foods (003230 KS): The Capacity-Constrained Compounder; Initiate BULLISH
- Samyang has absorbed every capacity addition within months since 2022, and the July-2026 export slowdown to +8% YoY reads as the same ceiling recurring, not fading Buldak demand.
- A 15% US tariff was passed through as a 9% October-2025 price hike with no volume loss, proving pricing power; a Nov-2025 treasury-share sale still weighs on governance.
- We initiate BULLISH with a 12-month Fair Value of ₩1,880,000, 17x our FY2028E EPS of ₩110,792, for +22.7% upside from Samyang’s ₩1,532,000 spot.
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