In today’s briefing:
- Fujitsu (6702) – Earnings/Guidance OK, Margins Better, But New Quiddity Buyback Data Tool 🥳
- Kakao Corp Placement – Momentum Isn’t Great but It Is a Small Deal
- SK Hynix Earnings Highlights Strong AI Dependence and Tariff Concerns
- Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.
- UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations
- Intel 1Q25: Work in Progress, More Unknowns than Clarity
- SK Hynix: Record-High Profits, the Stock Gets Cheaper.
- UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?
- What’s News in Amsterdam – 24 April (ABN Amro | ASML | KPN | Fugro | SBM Offshore | Triodos Bank)
- Ono Sokki (6858 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
Fujitsu (6702) – Earnings/Guidance OK, Margins Better, But New Quiddity Buyback Data Tool 🥳
- Fujitsu Earnings. Revenues +2.1%, OP +77.5%, Pretax +65.1%, Net -13.0% (basis effect from FY23 one-offs). Forecast? Revs -2.8%, OP/adj +35.8%/+17.2%, Net/adj +77.4%/+3.7%. All guided measures shy vs the Street consensus.
- The company presented a progress update on its Medium-Term Management Plan. Core profits are better. Things are improving.
- The company also announced a big 11-month ¥170bn buyback. Last year’s was ¥180bn (completed 24 March). Worth checking out the details (and our brand-new buyback tool)
Kakao Corp Placement – Momentum Isn’t Great but It Is a Small Deal
- SK Telecom (017670 KS) plans to raise around US$280m via selling its 2%+ stake in Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
- Kakao’s recent performance hasn’t been particularly great and the stock has been suffering even since the Kakao Pay management scandal in 2021.
- In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.
SK Hynix Earnings Highlights Strong AI Dependence and Tariff Concerns
- SK hynix announced their second-highest revenue and operating profit for the first quarter of 2025
- Much of the company’s performance is the result of its first-mover advantage and excellent execution in the HBM market
- Two issues threaten the company: AI growth may stall, and tariff changes could interfere with the company’s global supply chain
Texas Instruments: Surprisingly Good 1Q25, Good 2Q Guidance. End-Markets Are Back to YoY Growth.
- Demand for Auto & Industrial Semis was weak in 2024, Semi inventories remain high. But TXN beats 1Q guidance handsomely, 2Q is above expectations. TXN is back to YoY growth.
- Critically, the Industrial market is recovering rapidly, Auto is back to modest growth. Management has some concerns that there could be re-stocking ahead of US import tariffs.
- Consensus is too low but the stock is not cheap, has deflated from bubble levels but still not cheap.
UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations
- 1Q miss on non-ops and it’s the bottom for margins. Strong 2Q guidance but very low visibility into 2H: tariff uncertainty.
- The JV with Intel for 12nm is proceeding well and demand is strong for Made in US 12nm. Some upside here for 2027
- Consensus is probably a tad too low but the stock trading at average PEx ~12x. No arbitrage here.
Intel 1Q25: Work in Progress, More Unknowns than Clarity
- 1Q better than guided, 2Q a bit better but margins and net income remain very low. Reiteration that 1Q25 is the trough. Mngt mentions concerns about “the macro” and “tariffs”.
- CEO emphasizes “it won’t be easy” to fix products, manufacturing, culture. Re-org is coming but no details. Lower Opex but “we have not yet identified what that means for headcount”.
- Consensus continues to expect a swift runaround into 2026. Based on this optimistic forecast, the stock trades at 18x 2026 EPS. Too many unknowns.
SK Hynix: Record-High Profits, the Stock Gets Cheaper.
- Same as last quarter: very strong AI / Server demand, capacity sold out for 12 months, HBM3E 12Hi becomes majority in 2Q25. HBM is the only driver.
- Everything else remains weak. The conundrum remains: there is only 1 driver: AI / HBM. SK Hynix is the leading vendor, 12-18 months ahead of competitors. Is it sustainable?
- The market thinks not sustainable and the stock is very cheap at 5x 2025 4x 2026 EPS. SK Hynix still trades like a cyclical stock – is it?
UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?
- UMC guides for 2Q25 rebound, expecting 5–7% QoQ wafer shipment growth and margin recovery to ~30%, though 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.
- Intel Corp (INTC US) 12nm project progressing; Initial client orders planned for 2026E, with management leaving the door open to future partnerships—including rumored GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) collaboration—amid strategic diversification efforts.
- Tariff-Driven pull-forward of orders IS happening but impact reportedly limited so far, with UMC noting mixed customer behavior; near-term demand strength appears broad-based. We have a Neutral rating for UMC.
What’s News in Amsterdam – 24 April (ABN Amro | ASML | KPN | Fugro | SBM Offshore | Triodos Bank)
- In this edition: • ABN Amro | new CEO will focus on costs and the risk management model • ASML | wants free passage for machine parts; no evidence that China cracked the EUV puzzle • KPN | continued to deliver on its promises in 1Q25 • Fugro | 1Q25 trading update does not really contain much news • SBM Offshore | completes EUR 130m share buyback; starts new program of EUR 141m • Triodos Bank | facing new setback in its attempts to settle claims
Ono Sokki (6858 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
- Ono Sokki’s FY12/24 sales rose 23.2% YoY, with operating profit up 266.7% YoY, despite a 12.0% YoY order decline.
- Measuring Equipment segment’s operating profit dropped 74.4% YoY due to increased personnel expenses for overseas sales expansion.
- Custom Order Test Equipment and Service segment’s operating profit surged 555.1% YoY, driven by increased sales and fixed cost absorption.
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