In today’s briefing:
- [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming?
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: Inflows Vs Outflows Positive So Far But Time For Caution
- Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook
- SmartPay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): 14th October Vote On Shift4’s Offer
- What Is the Real Prize in Nvidia’s $5B Intel Bet?
- Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Scheme Vote on 14 October
- EQT Partners – To Acquire a Controlling Stake In Douzone Bizon & A Tender Offer of Minority Shares?
- NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!
- IBM Just Took The Lead In The Quantum Arms Race—And It’s Only The Beginning!
- Apple iPhone 17 Frenzy: Preorders Shatter Records—Is Supply Already Maxed Out?
[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming?
- Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed too cheap in 2023 after a couple of years in the wilderness and an aborted private sale effort, blocked on antitrust grounds.
- It nearly tripled, there was an offering announced at ¥5,000+ priced ¥4,500+. Shares fell back to IPO price, then bounced, and we got a July follow-on offering at ¥3,000+.
- I suggested here the back end could be squeezy. It was for a hot minute, then it wasn’t. Now the stock is up 50% in 2 weeks. Watch out!
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: Inflows Vs Outflows Positive So Far But Time For Caution
- CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
- Currently, we see 11 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.
Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook
- China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.
- Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.
- If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.
SmartPay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): 14th October Vote On Shift4’s Offer
- Back on the 23rd June, eftpos terminal provider SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU/NZ) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed withShift4 Payments (FOUR US).
- Shift4 is offering NZ$1.20, a 90.5% premium to undisturbed. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards. Microequities with 13.3% of shares out, is supportive.
- The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 14th October, and expected implementation on or before the 4th November. The IE (Calibre) says “fair & reasonable“.
What Is the Real Prize in Nvidia’s $5B Intel Bet?
- Nvidia takes a $5B stake in Intel and will co-develop custom x86 CPUs for data centers and RTX-integrated SoCs for PCs.
- The phrasing of “fusion of two world-class platforms” signals ambitions beyond just product collaboration.
- Intel shares surged +30% on the news, while AMD and Arm slumped; toolmakers like ASML and Synopsys rallied on expectations of fresh CapEx.
Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Scheme Vote on 14 October
- The Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) IE considers Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)’s NZ$1.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.07 to A$1.43 valuation range.
- Microequities has provided an irrevocable, and the other substantial shareholders should be supportive, as the offer is attractive and no competing proposal has emerged.
- The scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for the 4 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.4%/31.0%.
EQT Partners – To Acquire a Controlling Stake In Douzone Bizon & A Tender Offer of Minority Shares?
- It was reported in Seoul Economic Daily today that EQT Partners is close to acquiring a controlling stake (31.4%) in Douzone Bizon (012510 KS).
- A 31.4% stake of Douzone is now worth 0.91 trillion won (with no premium or discount).
- Douzone’s chairman Kim has demanded up to twice the market cap of the company for the management rights premium.
NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!
- The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs.
- In a significant escalation, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an antitrust probe against Nvidia, claiming the chipmaker violated monopoly laws during its $7 billion acquisition of Israeli firm Mellanox Technologies.
- The regulator’s preliminary findings come at a delicate moment as U.S. and Chinese officials wrap up high-stakes trade talks in Madrid.
IBM Just Took The Lead In The Quantum Arms Race—And It’s Only The Beginning!
- The race toward quantum advantage is entering its most critical phase, and IBM has quietly positioned itself as the frontrunner in a highly competitive field dominated by tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon.
- In its Q2 2025 earnings call, IBM confirmed a major milestone: the deployment of IBM Quantum System Two in Japan, the first such system outside the United States.
- This isn’t just a milestone in hardware—it signals IBM’s intent to establish global leadership in quantum computing infrastructure.
Apple iPhone 17 Frenzy: Preorders Shatter Records—Is Supply Already Maxed Out?
- Apple shares are on the rise again, powered by stronger-than-expected demand for the newly launched iPhone 17.
- After stumbling below $230 in the wake of a lukewarm launch event, Apple stock rebounded to $236.57, up 1.1% on the day, outpacing the S&P 500’s 0.5% gain.
- While initial reactions to the iPhone 17 were muted, investors are now reassessing their expectations in light of robust preorder volumes and significantly extended delivery times — both of which suggest consumer enthusiasm is running high, particularly in key markets like the U.S., China, and the U.K. This dynamic mirrors — and in some metrics, surpasses — what was seen during last year’s iPhone 16 cycle.
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