In today’s briefing:
- STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations
- Meta Scores Big with PlayAI Acquisition—Here’s What It Means for AI’s Future!
- Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25
- Figma Inc (FIG): High Profile Software IPO Sets Terms, Expecting Major Attention Next Week
- Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semiconductor Solutions Company Sets Terms for IPO
- Figma (FIG US): Delayed US & Global Index Inclusion Despite Aimed $13.7B Valuation
- Infosys (INFO IN) Q1 Results: What Options Markets Are Pricing In
- McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH): Caution Needed for Upcoming PE-Backed Legacy Education IPO
- Figma IPO (FIG.US): Investor Interest Remains Strong, Likely To Price IPO at Top of Range
- Q4 Follow-Up: Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – July 7, 2025
STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Outright Changes & Migrations
- Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index in September.
- We estimate turnover of 1% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 3.6% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 5bn (US$700m).
- Near term performance for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) changes has been great, while the performance of the outright STAR100 Index changes has been far from satisfactory.
Meta Scores Big with PlayAI Acquisition—Here’s What It Means for AI’s Future!
- In the fast-moving world of artificial intelligence, Meta has doubled down on voice-driven innovation by snapping up PlayAI, a nimble startup renowned for its natural-sounding speech synthesis and user-friendly voice-creation platform.
- With more than 3.4 billion daily users across its apps and nearly one billion monthly users of its Meta AI service, the company is eager to integrate PlayAI’s specialized talent directly into Meta Superintelligence Labs.
- This move arrives just after Meta rolled out Llama 4 models and launched its stand-alone Meta AI app, signaling an all-in push toward multimodal, conversational AI.
Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25
- A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 21 – July 25.
- OVERSOLD: Meta (META US) , HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) , NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)
- OVERBOUGHT: Alphabet (GOOG US) , Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) , NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Taiwan Semiconductor (2330 TT) , CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) , KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)
Figma Inc (FIG): High Profile Software IPO Sets Terms, Expecting Major Attention Next Week
- Figma is offering 36.9mm shares at $25.00-$28.00 equating to a market cap of $12.2bn-$13.65b and is scheduled to debut on July 31st.
- They estimate their total revenue to increase by 39% to 41% for the three months ended June 30, 2025 compared to the three months ended June 30, 2024.
- This company is highly regarded in the software sector and we believe that there will be ample interest in this IPO.
Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semiconductor Solutions Company Sets Terms for IPO
- Ambiq Micro is offering 3.4mm shares at $22.00-$25.00 equating to a market cap of $375m-$426m and is scheduled to debut on July 30th.
- The company is currently undergoing a “shift” from a customer base that relies heavily on mainland China to other parts of the world.
- The updated prospectus further outlines the ownership percentages and lists Kleiner Perkins and EDB Investments Ptd Ltd as owners of 14.8% and 6.0% prior to this offering.
Figma (FIG US): Delayed US & Global Index Inclusion Despite Aimed $13.7B Valuation
- Figma (FIG US) targets a valuation of $13.7bn, aiming to raise $1.2bn given it reaches the top of its pricing range.
- Inclusion in US and Global indices is delayed until 2026 due to failing free float and public voting rights eligibility before lock-up expiries.
- Figma (FIG US) is expected to be added to US TMI at the September 2025 review.
Infosys (INFO IN) Q1 Results: What Options Markets Are Pricing In
- Infosys (INFO IN / INFY US) reports Q1 FY26 results on Wednesday, 23 July 2025 at 15:45 IST; earnings days historically triggered outsized price moves.
- Highlight: Analyzing historical post-earnings price movements, along with forward-looking options-implied volatility, provides valuable insights for event-driven strategies.
- Why Read: Access the data and insights to take advantage of anticipated price moves and volatility crush. Potential option strategies explained.
McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH): Caution Needed for Upcoming PE-Backed Legacy Education IPO
- McGraw Hill (MH US) , is offering 24.39mm shares at $19.00-$22.00 equating to a market cap of $3.6b-$4.2b and is scheduled to debut on July 24th.
- We were pleasantly “surprised” to hear that the deal’s channel checks came in strong. According to guidance, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed with continued long-only conversions.
- Bringing the IPO at a valuation that is a down-round is a “positive”, however the sector in which this company operates in “may” prove to be a difficult sell.
Figma IPO (FIG.US): Investor Interest Remains Strong, Likely To Price IPO at Top of Range
- Figma Inc., a fast-growing design software maker with strong VC backing, is expected to price the offering this week.
- The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $25.00 to $28.00, implying a market cap of roughly $13B at the midpoint.
- I have a positive view of upcoming Figma IPO and expect a strong first trading-day performance. The stock will begin trading on the NYSE on July 28, 2025.
Q4 Follow-Up: Japan System Techniques (4323 JP) – July 7, 2025
- Japan System Techniques (hereafter, the Company) announced its full-year FY2025/3 results: Key consolidated figures included net sales of JPY 29,324 mn (+12.0% YoY), operating profit of JPY 3,188 mn (+14.2% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 3,264 mn (+14.1% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 2,443 mn (+17.1% YoY).
- The Company achieved a record high increase in net sales for the 14th consecutive year and operating profit for the 10th consecutive year, with ROE reaching 17.8%.
- The dividend per share for FY2025/3 was JPY 27.0, an increase of JPY 4.5 compared to JPY 22.5 in FY2024/3, an increase for the 4th consecutive year.
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