In today’s briefing:
- TSMC 2Q25: A Number of Very Positive Messages, Plus a Major Contradiction on 4Q25 Revenue
- TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.
- CoreWeave (CRWV US): Forecasted Addition to Nasdaq100 Replacing Ansys Post-Acquisition
- Square Enix (9684) | Turnaround in Motion
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep25: Three Changes Likely; US$364mn One-Way Flows
- NEXTDC Ltd – Rudi’s View: Aussie Broadband, oOh!media, Paladin Energy, Seek, Xero & More
- Computershare Limited: Initiation of Coverage- How Smart Hedging & Rate Moves Are Driving a $1.8 Billion Windfall!
- Podcast EP297: An Overview of sureCore’s New Silicon Services with Paul Wells
- BE Semiconductor – Why Hybrid Bonding Could Be Its Billion-Dollar Breakthrough!

TSMC 2Q25: A Number of Very Positive Messages, Plus a Major Contradiction on 4Q25 Revenue
- NT$ appreciation large impact on revenue / margins but TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance is in-line. FX impact is partially neutralize by other factors (utilization, cost control) .
- This will be controversial: management increase 2025 US$-revenue growth from mid-20 to 30%. Yet, this implies that 4Q25 US$-revenue growth will collapse to 9% YoY and NT$-growth will be negative.
- At same time, mngt gives a long list of very positive messages on AI demand, N2 ramp, full utilization of EUV nodes. This could lead to short-term stock price weakness.
TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise
- TSMC Beats, Raises, and Confirms AI Ramp Is Real, Despite FX Drag
- Conclusion — Maintain Structural Long View, 2026 Growth Likely Underappreciated
- TSMC ADR Premium Rebounds to 23.6% — US Investor Positioning Skewed Toward TSMC’s Unique AI Exposure
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): FX Could Make an Impact; Full Year USD Revenue Raised to ~30% YoY.
- 3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.
- Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%
- Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.
CoreWeave (CRWV US): Forecasted Addition to Nasdaq100 Replacing Ansys Post-Acquisition
- The acquisition of Ansys Inc (ANSS US) by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) has been completed today, 17 July and Ansys is expected to be deleted from Nasdaq100.
- CoreWeave (CRWV US) is forecasted to be added to Nasdaq100 as the replacement because it is the highest ranked eligible non-constituent following its recent listing on 28 March 2025.
- Top addition candidate for the December 2025 annual review is now Kimberly Clark (KMB US) following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 30 May 2025.
Square Enix (9684) | Turnaround in Motion
- Square Enix holds globally recognized IP with monetization upside across platforms, and recent pipeline discipline signals a shift toward higher-margin, high-quality titles that can stabilize earnings and restore growth.
- Activist involvement is intensifying, creating strong pressure for capital returns, governance reform, and strategic clarity – unlocking shareholder value in a business that remains structurally underleveraged and undervalued vs peers.
- With operating margins improving, digital sales accelerating, and cost structures being realigned, Square Enix is positioned to re-rate meaningfully as investor confidence rebuilds and management delivers on core turnaround objectives.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep25: Three Changes Likely; US$364mn One-Way Flows
- The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
- In this insight, we take a look at the final rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event.
- We see three ADDs/DELs and one float percentage revision which could collectively trigger roughly US$364mn in one-way index flows in September 2025.
NEXTDC Ltd – Rudi’s View: Aussie Broadband, oOh!media, Paladin Energy, Seek, Xero & More
- Update on changes to and revisions of analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions
Computershare Limited: Initiation of Coverage- How Smart Hedging & Rate Moves Are Driving a $1.8 Billion Windfall!
- Computershare presented a robust performance in its first-half FY ’25 results.
- The company reported Management Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.653, an 18.7% increase over the previous period, driven by strong business momentum despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate changes.
- The company’s management aims to build a simplified, high-quality, and capital-light business model, as evidenced by their recent divestment of the U.S. Mortgage Services business.
Podcast EP297: An Overview of sureCore’s New Silicon Services with Paul Wells
- Surecore offers a one-stop shop for SoC and IP design, from architecture to test, chip evaluation, and more
- Surecore’s team of highly experienced memory and mixed signal designers differentiate them from other design services providers
- Surecore’s expertise in low power design helps customers overcome challenges in advanced nodes, such as leakage and thermal management, ensuring sustainable next generation silicon solutions
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BE Semiconductor – Why Hybrid Bonding Could Be Its Billion-Dollar Breakthrough!
- BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (Besi) recently reported its first quarter 2025 results, underlining a mixed performance amidst a challenging market environment.
- The company achieved revenues of €144.1 million, marking a slight decline of 1.5% compared to the same quarter last year.
- This reduction reflects continued weaknesses in the mobile and automotive markets, although there was some compensation from a surge in demand related to hybrid bonding and AI-related computing applications.
