In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Activism] – KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share
- Korea Short Selling: Off to the Races
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Close to Long Level; UMC & ASE Deep Discounts
- ECM Weekly (31st Mar 2025) – Xiaomi, NIO, FCT, Gigabyte, DN Sol, Nanshan Al, Zenergy, LXJ, Veeda
- CoreWeave (CRWV US): Global & US Index Exclusion Over Low IPO Float & Public Voting Rights
- Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive
- SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL.US): Overall Growth Is Slowing Down, But FCF Will Turn Positive in FY26
[Japan Activism] – KKR and JIC Buy Out Topcon (7732 JP) At ¥3,300/Share
- The difference between an LBO (Leveraged Buy Out) and an MBO (Management Buy Out) is that an MBO is usually just an LBO where the buyers don’t replace the CEO.
- After 4+mos of speculation/noise since a Bloomberg article said Topcon was weighing takeover bids, we have a deal. KKR and JIC will buy out Topcon in an “MBO” at ¥3,300/share.
- Unusually, the lower limit is 50.1%. This is an OK exit for the “Bad Cops” but not a great one. It should be higher. Start delayed for 4 months.
Korea Short Selling: Off to the Races
- Short selling in Korea resumes in a couple of hours. Expect heightened volatility for a few days before things settle down.
- Foreign investors have increased their holdings over the last five weeks and there could be further buying in select stocks on stock price drops.
- The KOSPI 200 INDEX has outperformed the KOSDAQ 150 Index, and the forecast index deletes have underperformed the indices indicating that there will be positioning for the short-sell resumption.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Close to Long Level; UMC & ASE Deep Discounts
- TSMC: +14.9% Premium; Spread Has Fallen Close to Long Levels
- UMC: -2.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread
- ASE: -3.2% Discount; Spread at Extreme Low, Good Level to Go Long
ECM Weekly (31st Mar 2025) – Xiaomi, NIO, FCT, Gigabyte, DN Sol, Nanshan Al, Zenergy, LXJ, Veeda
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, DN Solutions (298440 KS)‘s range looks a little pricey, while Eco-Shop Marketing (ECO MY) could trade ahead of its listed peers, in our view.
- On the placements front, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) matched BYD (1211 HK) in size, but couldn’t do so in returns.
CoreWeave (CRWV US): Global & US Index Exclusion Over Low IPO Float & Public Voting Rights
- CoreWeave (CRWV US) is forecasted to be added to snp TMI at the June 2025 review after failing the fast-entry fcap threshold of $2bn.
- CoreWeave (CRWV US) is ineligible in 2025 for inclusion to Global-F and rasel due to public voting rights below 5%.
- Lock-Up expiry causes free float thus public voting rights to increase above 5%. Addition to Global-F SmallCap and R1000 is expected in March and June 2026, respectively.
Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive
- Delta Thailand Has Dramatically Underperformed Delta Taiwan — Delta Thailand Now Finally Trading at a Less Extreme Level vs. Delta Taiwan
- Latest Relative Growth Profiles — Delta Taiwan Has Higher Growth Profile in 2025E
- Even After the Major Pricing Reversion Since Mid-February, Delta Thailand Remains Overvalued Relative to Delta Taiwan
SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL.US): Overall Growth Is Slowing Down, But FCF Will Turn Positive in FY26
- SailPoint, a pioneer of enterprise identity governance market with industry leadership position, returned to the public markets in 2025.
- American technology company has raised ~$1.4B in US IPO and paid down all outstanding debt in 1Q FY26, according to Brian Carolan, CFO of SailPoint, Inc.
- The company reported mixed 4Q FY25 results with ~78% y/y increase in customers with ARR˃$1M and a bullish tone on AI agent identity management.
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