In today’s briefing:
- Waiting for the Sell Signal
- 2022 = Twenty-Twenty, Too?
- India’s Trade-Led Acceleration in GDP Unlikely to Lose Momentum in 2022
Waiting for the Sell Signal
- While we have become more cautious in the past few weeks, technical indicators have not flashed any intermediate-term sell signals just yet.
- Long-Term investors should position themselves cautiously by reducing equity weights.
- Traders should not be overly eager to turn bearish. Wait for the tactical sell signal first.
2022 = Twenty-Twenty, Too?
- Investors should position for slower growth in the first half of 2022.
- Fixed income: Prepare for a flattening yield curve and long bond duration.
- Equities: Long defensive sectors and large-cap growth stocks as duration plays for their interest rate sensitivity.
India’s Trade-Led Acceleration in GDP Unlikely to Lose Momentum in 2022
- India’s goods exports grew 41.4% in 2021, outpacing most of the world (including Taiwan, Korea and China). Services exports stayed robust too, and both will boost growth in 2022.
- Fixed investment spending was up 11% YoY in Q2-FY2021/22, and will likely strengthen further on the back of accelerating corporate profits (evident in surging corporate tax revenue).
- Despite renewed disruptions from India’s Third Wave of Covid, we expect real GDP to grow over 10% in FY2021/22 and 8%+ in FY2022/23, boosted by robust exports.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
