In today’s briefing:
- CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go
- KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows
- 7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
- [Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
- CoreWeave (CRWV US): Forecasted Addition to Nasdaq100 Replacing Ansys Post-Acquisition
- Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?
- Nanjing Leads Biolabs IPO: Lead Asset Targets Niche Market; Path to Success Still Long
- HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom
- Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside
CATL (3750 HK) H-Share IPO: Fast Entry to Global Indices Is Touch & Go
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) could raise up to US$5.1bn in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
- There is a huge allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That significantly reduces float and the probability of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
- CATL (3750 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 16 June following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.
KOSPI Size Indices: Overlaps Between Active & Passive Flows
- The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
- Nearing halfway in the review period, we forecast 53 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 1 to SmallCap.
- Two potential downward migrations could be deleted from a global index in August. The new listing that is a potential LargeCap add could be added to a globalindex in September.
7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
- Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
- The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
- The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.
[Japan Activism] Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Buyback Tender – Surprising Results and Implications
- Today, Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) announced the results of its Buyback Tender Offer to repurchase up to 3,999,999 shares (35.8% of shares out ex-Treasury) at ¥5,000/share.
- Murakami-San owned 42% of the voting rights at announcement, then bought more on the dip just below ¥5,000/share.
- The Tender Offer Buyback was “successful” in that it bought back 3.3mm shares. But the result was FAR more interesting than I expected. Surprising Results with Surprising Implications
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)‘s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
- There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.
CoreWeave (CRWV US): Forecasted Addition to Nasdaq100 Replacing Ansys Post-Acquisition
- The acquisition of Ansys Inc (ANSS US) by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US) has been completed today, 17 July and Ansys is expected to be deleted from Nasdaq100.
- CoreWeave (CRWV US) is forecasted to be added to Nasdaq100 as the replacement because it is the highest ranked eligible non-constituent following its recent listing on 28 March 2025.
- Top addition candidate for the December 2025 annual review is now Kimberly Clark (KMB US) following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 30 May 2025.
Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?
- Founder Kim reportedly looking to offload his 21.5% stake, with EQT eyeing a ~30% control block including Shinhan’s. No succession plans, deal said to be under serious review.
- Kim’s control premium ask could trigger Korea’s first test case of expanded fiduciary duty, with minority holders potentially suing if tender terms aren’t seen as fair under new rules.
- Buyer likely prepping a Q3 tender offer; key watch is how minority premium stacks vs control block — could be Korea’s first de facto test case of mandatory tender mechanics.
Nanjing Leads Biolabs IPO: Lead Asset Targets Niche Market; Path to Success Still Long
- Nanjing Leads Biolabs has launched HK$1.1B IPO to fund its ongoing and planned clinical development and regulatory affairs of pipeline assets. The company has fetched cornerstone investment of ~HK$ 542M.
- Lead product candidate, LBL-024 is being evaluated for extra-pulmonary neuroendocrine carcinoma. Leads Biolabs expects to file the first BLA for LBL-024 by 3Q26 and anticipate obtaining conditional approval by 2Q27.
- Positive investor sentiment toward Chinese biotech companies and near-term catalyst being Phase 3 data readout for LBL-024 in early 2026 are the main reasons to subscribe.
HEW: Inflation Persists, But Cuts Loom
- Persistent upside inflation surprises and sticky wage growth are lifting hawkish market narratives, defying central bank and consensus hopes for a quick return to target.
- UK inflation jumped well above forecast in June, strengthening the hawkish case, while US core inflation shows tariffs adding to excessive underlying price pressures.
- Next week, attention turns to the ECB decision, July flash PMIs, and UK public finances, as markets weigh central banks’ willingness to ignore resurgent inflation.
Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside
- Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.
- The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi’s simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.
- With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.
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