In today’s briefing:
- CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
- Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In
- [Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
- Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Four Changes; US$5.6bn Trade
- AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings
- Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting
- Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): A US$0.8 Billion Secondary Offering
- Toyoda Gosei Placement – Somewhat Expected but Relatively Large with Delayed Buyback
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion in 2026
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
CATL (3750 HK): Cornerstone Lock-Up Expiry, Passive Flows, H/A Premium
- CATL (3750 HK) listed in May by selling 135.579m shares (including the Offer Size Adjustment Option) at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised in full.
- Nearly 50% of the IPO shares were allotted to cornerstone investors. The lock-up on those investors ends on 19 November. That increases float and will bring in passive flows.
- CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a big premium to CATL (300750 CH) and that could start to move lower as the number of free float shares increases.
Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In
- Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)‘s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
- The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.
- Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.
[Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
- A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
- At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
- The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Four Changes; US$5.6bn Trade
- Following multiple amendments to the methodology, there could be 4 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
- Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 18.1% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 173.2bn (US$5.56bn).
- There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan indices and present some interesting trading opportunities.
AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings
- We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
- From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
- With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.
Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting
- Back on the 24th October, Ray Zage (director) and James Lu (chairman), collectively holding ~60% in Grindr (GRND US), proposed to take the company private in a US$3.5bn deal.
- The non-binding cash Offer of $18/share, is a 51% premium to undisturbed. A condition to a firm Offer may incorporate a majority of minority vote.
- While the Special Committee considers the proposal, James Lu has unusually opted to step down. Currently trading at a ~30% gross spread to indicative terms.
Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): A US$0.8 Billion Secondary Offering
- Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 29.7 million shares (34.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.7 billion (US$0.8 billion including overallotment).
- Toyoda Gosei’s primary goal with the secondary offering is to reduce Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s shareholding to around 20% of outstanding shares.
- The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.
Toyoda Gosei Placement – Somewhat Expected but Relatively Large with Delayed Buyback
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) plan to raise around US$700m via selling down some of their stake in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
- The deal is a large one to digest at over 20% of the company and 90 days of ADV.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Tekscend Photomask (429A JP): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion in 2026
- Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) went public on 16 October 2025 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and has a current market cap of $2bn.
- Inclusion in Global indices is expected in February and June 2026, as the security meets Global eligibility criteria.
- A slight free float increase is anticipated at a subsequent review following the lock-up expiry of Qatar Holding.
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion. The primary/secondary split is 40%/60%.
- I discussed the investment thesis in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case.
- In this note, I discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is fairly valued at the IPO price of JPY1,440 per share.
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