In today’s briefing:
- Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance
- [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT
- Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎
- [Japan Event/Buyback] The Sony Financial Spinoff – ‘Maybe’ BUYBACK Complicates Planning
- [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses
- Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case
- A Flow Play on the Market-Missed Reshuffle in KRX Bio Top 10
- Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): A Done Deal at an Attractive Spread
- TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2025)
- Uranium’s Shortfall And Nuclear Viability
Metaplanet Placement: A Look at Other Treasury Play Issuances and Performance
- Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
- The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 22.8% of total shares outstanding.
- In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT
- Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses.
- That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
- It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎
- Shift Inc (3697 JP) will replace Citizen Watch (7762 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) after the close of trading on 30 September.
- BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF will double from 0.5 to 1 and Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) will be deleted from the NKY INDEX following the spin-off from Sony Corp (6758 JP).
- The index committee has decided not to add Kokusai Electric to the index despite the stock ranking within the top 75. The deletion of Citizen Watch points to sector balance.
[Japan Event/Buyback] The Sony Financial Spinoff – ‘Maybe’ BUYBACK Complicates Planning
- The Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) (now called Sony Financial Group Inc (“SFGI”)) spinoff approaches. It will start trading 20 days from now.
- Yesterday, the TSE confirmed approval (outline, Securities Report (J), Corporate Governance Report (J). The company provided details of a possible ToSTNeT-3 buyback on Day 2 pre-open. That complicates things.
- The introduction of that type of buyback flexibility indicates that supply overhang may be managed better than buyers would hope. Means other strategies may be necessary.
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses
- Today, in the latest announcement in 17 years, the Nikkei Index Committee announced there would be only one change to the Nikkei 225 at the 30 Sep close.
- Shift Inc (3697 JP) is IN. Citizen Watch (7762 JP) is OUT. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is uplifted. Sony Financial Spin is out 29 Sep. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)? MIA.
- In dollar terms it is smallish. In ADV terms there are some big changes. And this puts Kokusai Electric back possibly years.
Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case
- Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is seeking to raise US$3 billion.
- Zijin Gold hold interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.
- The investment case is bullish due to a diversified mine portfolio, strong growth, an attractive margin profile, robust cash generation, and modest leverage.
A Flow Play on the Market-Missed Reshuffle in KRX Bio Top 10
- KRX BBIG Sept review: Mother index BBIG, four kids. Only Bio (adds: Peptron, PharmaResearch; deletes: Hanmi Pharm, SK Bioscience) and Game saw changes. Battery, Internet unchanged.
- Game’s tiny AUM won’t move flows; Bio may see meaningful passive impact. Index AUM ~20B KRW: additions ~0.2x DTV inflow, deletions ~0.3–0.4x DTV outflow.
- Clean trade setup: index flying under radar, seemingly no pre-positioning. PharmaResearch seems to have moved solo. Thursday likely sees strong ETF-driven price action; enter late morning pullback, exit before close.
Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): A Done Deal at an Attractive Spread
- On 5 September, Shenge increased its minimum scheme consideration for Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) to A$0.443, a 23% premium to the previous minimum cash consideration.
- The IE considers the offer fair and reasonable. The key conditions are approval from the Fair Competition Commission of Tanzania and shareholder approval (vote scheduled for 16 September).
- This is a done deal, as Tanzania approval and the vote are low-risk. At the last close and for a 30 September payment, the gross/annualised spread is 5.5%/147%.
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2025)
- Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
- Our long-term TOPIX Inclusion pre-event candidate Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) has experienced a sharp price decline and has moved further away from the required thresholds for Section Transfers.
- Separately, Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) has announced a potential move to the Prime market which could result in a TOPIX inclusion in late-October 2025.
Uranium’s Shortfall And Nuclear Viability
- Back in April 2022, around six weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I touched on the disruption to the uranium supply chain in Uranium: Fuelling Fears.
- The war spurred renewed interest in nuclear energy as a source of domestic power. Uranium prices have tripled since the invasion.
- A recent report from the World Nuclear Association forecast a significant step-up in demand for uranium for reactors, together with a material output drop from mines “as deposits are exhausted”.
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