In today’s briefing:
- TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade
- NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade
- Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion
- 2026 High Conviction Idea: SK Inc
- Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation
- [Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh
- ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?
- BoE Survey Says Stagflation Survives
- Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint
- Fresh Intel: Kosdaq Stimulus Drop Date & Key Targets
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade
- The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 403bn (US$12.8bn).
- We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of 30.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7.9bn.
- The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks and we expect the adds to continue outperforming the deletes over the next few days.
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade
- There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
- If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
- The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.
Aspen Group (APZ AU): Global Sector Index Inclusion
- Aspen Group (APZ AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close 19 December. The stock is also a potential inclusion to a global index in March.
- Estimated passive buying in Aspen Group (APZ AU) is U$21m and positioning in the stock could continue to build in the next few days.
- Positioning in the stock has been increasing over the last few months with a jump that started at the beginning of November.
2026 High Conviction Idea: SK Inc
- Three main reasons why SK Inc is our high conviction in 2026 include mandatory cancellation of treasury shares, deep discount to NAV, and the end of divorce for Chairman Chey.
- SK Inc has 17.98 million shares in treasury, representing 24.8% of outstanding shares. Among the stocks included in KOSPI200, this is one of the highest percentage of treasury shares.
- Our NAV valuation analysis suggests NAV of 28 trillion won or NAV per share of 386,469 won. This represents a 46% upside to its current price.
Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation
- Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
- In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25. The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It’s now ~1.2x.
- Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x.
[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh
- The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.
- I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, “neither here nor there.”
- But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for 2021, 2022, and 2023 and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.
ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?
- The consortium has decided NOT to exercise its right to increase the ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares.
- The positive read-across is that it signals the consortium’s confidence that the vote will pass, as reflected in the quick decision not to lift the cap (deadline was 12 December).
- The negative readacross is that shareholders requesting the scrip option likely exceeded the 7.5% upper threshold, and the consortium is hoping that these shareholders will instead take the mix option.
BoE Survey Says Stagflation Survives
- CFOs keep telling the BoE their prices will rise by 3.5% in 2026, with wage increases similarly substantial. There has been no significant break lower in over 18 months.
- Employment plans have also deteriorated, lending some support to the dovish case as well. But this side is an unreliable signal, while inflation has proved brutally accurate.
- Doves need the employment aspect to be true, but the transmission to prices not to be. This survey signals upside inflation risks that should discourage rate cuts in 2026.
Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint
- First, EQT, then CVC joined, in a A$45/share NBIO for AUB (AUB AU), an insurance “matchmaker”: CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU). Talks ceased this week.
- Reportedly, AUB’s larger insurance rival, Steadfast (SDF AU), is now attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.
- Steadfast is down ~25% from its recent high following a workplace complaint towards CEO/MD/founder Robert Kelly – now concluded on “a confidential basis”, with Kelly resuming his roles.
Fresh Intel: Kosdaq Stimulus Drop Date & Key Targets
- Fresh intel hit at lunch. Official rollout is penciled for the 11th or 12th, sourced straight from a key gov’t operator and pushed to Hankyung.
- The package basically boils down to two levers: juiced tax perks for retail in Kosdaq venture funds and a structural bump-up in pension-fund allocation.
- Street sees this as constructive: tax tweaks to pull retail, pension weight-ups to juice flows, and focus on 300bn+ Kosdaq names that beat Q3 consensus 10%+.
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