In today’s briefing:
- 7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
- Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon
- SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook
- Curator’s Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector and Asian Ports in Focus
- Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks
- Sichuan Kelun Biotech (6990 HK): Price Surge & Global Index Inclusion
- Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Krungthai Card, GMO Internet, Jardine Matheson
- NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes, Impact, Positioning
- Reece (REH AU): Positioning Increases as Global Index Deletion Nears
7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
- Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
- The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
- The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)‘s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
- There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.
Dickson Concepts (113 HK): A Necessary HK Arbageddon
- Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) shareholders have voted against Sir Poon’s HK$7.20 per share offer. The vote marginally failed the <10% of all disinterested shareholders’ rejection threshold.
- While painful, this deal break was arguably the correct outcome as the offer was below the net cash and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis.
- Unlike the last HK deal break (Soundwill), the price action over the last two days indicated a done deal. My estimated break price is HK$5.00 (30% downside to last close).
SK Hynix Single-Stock ETF Scheduled for 3Q: Watch for a Repeat of the Samsung ETF Playbook
- When the SK Hynix ETF drops, expect meaningful physical buying shaking up supply-demand. Arb desks and alpha shops could pile in early, pushing the stock higher on flow.
- Going long Hynix near listing could pay off if demand mirrors Samsung’s—ETF flows, NAV arb, and delta hedging drove a 4% jump with a noticeable increase in program buying.
- Get in around the listing, watch flows, and take profits quickly. This is a short 2–3 day tactical play, with sharper front-running expected based on the Samsung ETF template.
Curator’s Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector and Asian Ports in Focus
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
- In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next
Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Sep25: BeOne, TME, and Pop Mart Among Our Top Picks
- The Hang Seng Index is the main benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
- In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in September 2025.
- The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 22nd August 2025.
Sichuan Kelun Biotech (6990 HK): Price Surge & Global Index Inclusion
- The recent placement and price surge in Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK) could result in the stock being added to a global index in August.
- Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm has outperformed its peers as the entire industry has been trading well. There is a small increase in short interest in the stock.
- Positioning has increased steadily over the last month. Momentum in the stock and its peers could lead to further upside before profit taking kicks in.
Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, Krungthai Card, GMO Internet, Jardine Matheson
- Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) walks away from Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), and accuses 7&i’s Board, management, and the Special Committee of bad faith and bad governance.
- Buy Krungthai Card (KTC TB) with both hands as pledged sharesfall to 3.5% of shares outstanding from 16.3% the previous month.
- If you have borrow on GMO Internet (4784 JP), use it. Otherwise, avoid like the plague. It would not be surprising if the TSE were to ding someone on manipulation.
NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes, Impact, Positioning
- InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) should replace Indusind Bank (IIB IN) and Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) in the NIFTY Index in September.
- The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented at the close of trading on 29 September.
- While there has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN), there could be more room to run in the stock.
Reece (REH AU): Positioning Increases as Global Index Deletion Nears
- Reece Ltd (REH AU)‘s stock price has dropped a lot over the last year, and the significantly lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August.
- Short interest started to pick up early this year and has accelerated over the last couple of months. There are indications of positioning in the stock.
- Reece Ltd (REH AU) has underperformed its peers but still trades at a higher EV/EBITDA and forward PE compared to most of its peer group.
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