In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A] YAGEO Extends Shibaura TOB Limbo at FSA/METI/BOJ Request on FEFTA
- WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) Placement: Strong Momentum & Index Flows
- Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds
- Denso (6902) Buys Large Rohm (6963 JP) Stake – Register Gets Squeezier
- Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion & The Risks
- [Japan M&A] Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP) Gets the Deal Done – Nice Process, Nice Price
- ECB Job Tightened By Jobs
- Samsung Earnings Call Signals Samsung-Hanmi HBM4 Talks: Catalyst Brewing for Both Stocks
- Ricoh (7752 JP): Potential Global Index Deletion in August
- MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): 29th August Vote On Harmony’s Offer
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Extends Shibaura TOB Limbo at FSA/METI/BOJ Request on FEFTA
- YAGEO’s deal for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) had been extended a couple of times – once for Shibaura’s yuho, and once for Taiwan Investment Commission Approval.
- YAGEO had re-filed its notification for FEFTA on 2 June, and the “normal” 30 day waiting period expired 1 July. YAGEO extended by 4 business days to 15 July.
- The TRS amendment was less informative than the TDNET release today. That’s worth reading. More waiting ahead. But the timing may be politically strategic.
WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) Placement: Strong Momentum & Index Flows
- WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) is looking to raise US$650m at a price range of HK$104.16-106.4/share, a 5-7% discount from last close.
- There will be passive buying from global index trackers around the time of settlement of the placement shares. Then there will be some Hang Seng Index buying in August.
- Short interest in WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) has spiked and some shorts could cover into the placement. The AH premium could move higher following the placement.
Prosus Is Elevated Vs. Tencent As The Accretion Trade Unfolds
- Since unwinding the Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus (PRX NA) circularity, Prosus has been selling Tencent shares, and buying back its share. Separately, Tencent is buying its shares to offset Prosus’ selling.
- Prosus’ stake in Tencent has now edged below 23%, a little over seven months since dipping below 24%.
- On an implied stub and relative value, Prosus is elevated to Tencent, suggesting an unwinding of the stub.
Denso (6902) Buys Large Rohm (6963 JP) Stake – Register Gets Squeezier
- Today after the close, a Nikkei article said Denso Corp (6902 JP) had recently lifted its stake in ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) from “about 0.3%” to “just under 5%.”
- Given the recent buy of 28mm shares of Rohm into the Nikkei 225, that means ~11.5% or perhaps more has been taken out of the public’s hands.
- Some may have come from cross-holders, but it’s not clear there are that many. This renders the stock more squeeze-able going forward. Rohm reports next week.
Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion & The Risks
- PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) could be added to a global index in August but there are multiple risks for the stock.
- PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) trades at significantly higher multiples compared to its peers and the recent price spike raises the risk of addition to the UMA list.
- PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) has outperformed its peers and positioning is big, raising the risk of the stock moving lower over the next few weeks.
[Japan M&A] Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP) Gets the Deal Done – Nice Process, Nice Price
- This family-owned dispensing pharmacy business saw the founding family decide to bail a year ago. So the company decided to set up a sales process.
- This process was a model for how this kind of sale process should be conducted. Multiple parties. Easy accommodation. Getting experts in.
- This should be a done deal because the family and cross-holders/insiders get them to the minimum.
ECB Job Tightened By Jobs
- The EA labour market proved tighter than the ECB expected in Q2 as the unemployment rate held at a downwardly revised 6.2%. That is hawkish news to its neutral stance.
- Most countries still face falling unemployment, suggesting monetary conditions were slightly loose, and avoiding pressure to lower underlying inflation further.
- A hawkish domestic surprise should keep the ECB on hold, especially with the US trade policy risk fading. Passthrough of past cuts may mean the ECB needs to hike later.
Samsung Earnings Call Signals Samsung-Hanmi HBM4 Talks: Catalyst Brewing for Both Stocks
- Samsung confirmed PRA sign-off for 1c HBM4, shipped samples to NVIDIA, went full redesign on base die, and is in talks with vendors like Hanmi for hybrid bonding gear.
- From a trading POV: Samsung pivoting to Hanmi signals “speed over pride”—a clear tell they’re serious about ramping HBM4 fast, even if it means breaking from vertical integration.
- For the move to stick, yields and customer wins matter — but Hanmi’s stepping up, and this could give Samsung’s HBM4 story a real leg up if it plays out.
Ricoh (7752 JP): Potential Global Index Deletion in August
- The slide in Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)‘s stock price over the last few months could lead to the deletion of the stock from a global index in August.
- Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) has underperformed its peers over the last couple of months and trades cheaper than the average of its peers.
- There are indications of positioning in the stock. However, positioning is likely smaller than the estimated passive selling and there could be more downside for the stock near-term.
MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): 29th August Vote On Harmony’s Offer
- Back on the 27th May 2025, dual-listed MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US), a NSW copper miner, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ).
- Harmony offered US$12.25 for each MAC Share, a 20.7% premium to last close. The A$ consideration for MAC CDIs pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate around the Record Date.
- A copy of the Circular is now available, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. Barrenjoey, the FA, says fair & reasonable. 22.54% of shares out are supportive.
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