In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Overhang Hangs Over, Company Buys Back, ADR Selldown Awaits?
- Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping
- Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH’s Updated Financials
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?
- TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2025)
- WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade
- FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case
- Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics
- Tekscend Photomask IPO: Market Leader with Strong Prospects Ahead
- US: Steady As She Shuts
[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Overhang Hangs Over, Company Buys Back, ADR Selldown Awaits?
- Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) listed on Monday with a “Reference Price of ¥150. It opened at ¥205, quickly running to ¥210, then fell to ¥198 by lunch. Close? ¥173.8.
- That got a big ToSTNeT-3 buyback at ¥173.8. It traded lower on Day 2, closing at ¥164. Then lower still on Weds with another TN-3 buyback now ¥159.4.
- Neither buyback was full. SFGI has bought back 124mm shares. But the stock has fallen hard. ADRs/ADSs start trading Tuesday. That could see more selling.
Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping
- Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
- A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.
- Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.
Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH’s Updated Financials
- On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
- Dongfeng has now released the application proof for VOYAH, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.
- The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.
Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.
- Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.
- For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2025)
- Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
- Section-Transfer name Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) is expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of October 2025.
- New listings Orion Breweries (409A JP) and Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) are expected to be included in TOPIX at the end of October 2025 and November 2025 respectively.
WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.3bn Round-Trip Trade
- The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
- The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 6 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 15 October.
- There are 217 adds and 224 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.
FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case
- FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.
- FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 1H25 revenue.
- The investment case rests on top-tier revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, peer-leading FCF generation and manageable leverage.
Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics
- KRX may preemptively adjust KOSPI 200 screening, switching from full market cap to market cap excluding treasury shares for index inclusion.
- With treasury-share cancellation likely this quarter, KRX may act before June ’26. For December KOSPI 200, we should run both full-cap and ex-treasury screens; flows could behave unusually.
- Focusing on Hanssem (009240 KS) and Taekwang (003240 KS); borderline, high treasury shares, potential KOSPI 200 exclusion, making them key flow-sensitive setups for December reshuffle.
Tekscend Photomask IPO: Market Leader with Strong Prospects Ahead
- Established in 2022, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) (previously Toppan Photomask) is the world’s leading semiconductor photomask supplier, holding a global market share of 38.9%.
- Tekscend provides a diverse portfolio of high-precision photomasks for semiconductors, displays, MEMS, and R&D, including cutting-edge EUV masks, leveraging its expertise in microfabrication.
- The company is planning for a listing on TSE on 16th October and plans to raise proceeds of around US$800m through a combination of existing and new share issues.
US: Steady As She Shuts
- The US government shutdown causes vital economic data to go dark, leaving the Fed facing market pressure to blindly cut rates as priced, creating risks of policy error.
- Both parties see strategic value in prolonging the shutdown, risking disruption that lasts well beyond historical norms. But levels will rebound when it inevitably ends.
- In the interim, private surveys signal weakness, and this picture is unlikely to improve significantly enough to block cuts in 2025, but that won’t drive more Fed cuts in 2026.
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