In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?
- KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete
- [Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share
- NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes Announced; US$1.4bn Trade in Tranches
- HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges
- TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade
- Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Offer Closes As New York Casino Licence Awarded
- Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900
- UltraGreen.ai IPO Trading: Attractive Pricing, Strong Tailwinds
- HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)
[Japan M&A] Possible Partial TSURUHA (3391 JP) Tender Changes – More Accretion! Smaller Tender?
- Today, post-close of its first day of trading as MergeCo, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced 12 different investors who had voted against the deal filed for dissenting shareholder share repurchase.
- This covers 27.154mm shares – a bit more than what Orbis owned when they last filed (25.5mm shs) and is just over half the AGM dissension.
- This creates some weirdness. A 5+% buyback is strong accretion, but “fair price” is a question, and it could mean smaller tender offer quantity and larger eventual index selldowns.
KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete
- The December rebalance of the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) will take place at the close of trading on 12 December.
- Alibaba Pictures, East Buy Holding, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, XD Inc. and CaoCao (2643 HK) will be added, while iQIYI Inc (IQ US) will be deleted.
- Short interest has increased in most adds recently and there could be some short covering following the announcement of the index inclusion.
[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share
- Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) had been planning to release a Medium Term Management Plan this month BUT stock prices are higher, goodwill effects changed, so they announced a “Vision” instead.
- Today post-close, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced its Partial Tender Offer on TSURUHA (Japanese) at ¥2,900/share. Slightly lower than hoped. Much better than before.
- AEON obviously really did not want to bump, but they did, considering synergies and the desire to consummate the deal. The Tender Offer shrinks so minimum pro-ration is lower.
NIFTY Bank Index: Methodology Changes Announced; US$1.4bn Trade in Tranches
- NSE Indices has announced the methodology changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) that will be implemented in 4 tranches starting in December.
- Yes Bank (YES IN) and Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) will be added to the index to increase the number of constituents from 12 to 14.
- Passives need to sell HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) while buying all the other stocks in the index.
HEM: Dec-25 Views & Challenges
- Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.
- Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.
- Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.
TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade
- The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 403bn (US$12.8bn).
- We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of 30.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7.9bn.
- The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks and we expect the adds to continue outperforming the deletes over the next few days.
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Offer Closes As New York Casino Licence Awarded
- Genting Bhd (GENT MK)‘s unconditional Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) closed yesterday, the 1st December, with GENT holding 73.13%, up from 49.99% initially.
- The IFA previously opined the Offer to be NOT fair, and NOT reasonable. A bump in terms, long rumoured, failed to unfold.
- Yesterday, GENM was one of three applicants selected by New York’s Gaming Facility Location Board for a full commercial casino license in downtown New York.
Tsuruha (3391 JP): Aeon (8267 JP) Bumps Its Partial Tender Offer to JPY2,900
- Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) announced a partial tender offer from Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) at JPY2,900, a 27.2% premium over the previously stated offer price of JPY2,280.
- Aeon will acquire a maximum (upper limit) of 43.2 million shares (9.52% ownership ratio) such that it attains a 50.90% ownership ratio. There is no lower limit.
- The offer is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and marginally below the JPY3,100 price Aeon paid in 2024 to acquire Oasis’ stake.
UltraGreen.ai IPO Trading: Attractive Pricing, Strong Tailwinds
- UltraGreen.AI (2594794D SP) raised around US$400m in its Singapore IPO.
- UltraGreen is a global leader in Fluorescence Guided Surgery (FGS), a surgical approach that helps doctors see things inside the body that are normally invisible under regular white light.
- We have looked at the company’s background and pricing in our earlier note, in this note we talk about the trading dynamics.
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)
- The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
- The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
- Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.
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