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Daily Brief China: Onewo Space-Tech, Meituan, Aier Eye Hospital Group, CPMC Holdings, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Onewo Space-Tech IPO – Appears Digestible Even on Conservative Assumptions
  • Meituan (3690 HK): User Base Beating Competitor, Industry Recovering, Upgrade to Hold
  • Aier Eye Hospital (300015.CH) 22H1 – More Downside Ahead; The Long Logic Doesn’t Exist
  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Good Time to Re-Visit
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, Country Garden Holdings Co

Onewo Space-Tech IPO – Appears Digestible Even on Conservative Assumptions

By Sumeet Singh

  • Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK) (OST) aims to raise upto US$784m in its Hong Kong IPO. OST is a property management service provider primarily owned by China Vanke (2202 HK)
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, amongst the residential community service providers in China, OST ranked first. It also ranked first in the commercial space integrated services market in China.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.

Meituan (3690 HK): User Base Beating Competitor, Industry Recovering, Upgrade to Hold

By Ming Lu

  • In July, Meituan’s user base exceeded Ele.me and Ele.me’s active user base decreased by 24% YoY.
  • In China, Monthly active user bases of local life and food delivery recovered from May to July.
  • We believe Meituan’s stock has only a downside of 6% for year end 2023.

Aier Eye Hospital (300015.CH) 22H1 – More Downside Ahead; The Long Logic Doesn’t Exist

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The fundamental changes in the population structure will lead to a decline in the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods. The long logic doesn’t exist.
  • Aier has hit a growth ceiling. As the endogenous demand will be stepped downward gradually, the performance of Aier will further decline. The downward elasticity of valuation is greater.
  • It is still difficult for healthcare sector to have its own independent growth logic. The bottom of healthcare sector would appear after the collapse of Aier’s valuation.

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Good Time to Re-Visit

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Underpinned by higher ASP and sequentially lower input costs, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) should achieve better margin in 2H22. Its 17% fall in share price YTD makes it appealing.
  • Average aluminum price was down 14% so far in 2H22, vs. 1H21, good to its costs. Well-controlled selling and administrative costs will help to support profitability recovery.
  • New two-piece can capacity will grow by 54% over the next three years as 5 production lines are expected to be added. Most of them already have demand lined up.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, Country Garden Holdings Co

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Times Neighborhood, Onewo Space-Tech, Tencent, Road King Infrastructure and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, PCOMP, SET50, AMFI, ALX
  • Takeaways from the Times Neighborhood Investment Debacle
  • Onewo IPO: Valuation Insights
  • China Internet Weekly (19Sep2022): Tencent, NetEase, Meituan, Trip.com
  • Morning Views Asia: China Fortune Land, Fosun International, Road King Infrastructure

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, PCOMP, SET50, AMFI, ALX

By Brian Freitas


Takeaways from the Times Neighborhood Investment Debacle

By Sameer Taneja

  • Times Neighborhood (9928 HK) has been a disastrous call since we first highlighted it. In this insight, we reflect upon the red flags we could have done well to spot. 
  • We cover red flags ranging from the level of precise guidance, pivot in strategy, and the parent’s poor financial health, to the effect on receivables sucking cash from the company. 
  • Everyone makes mistakes (we are human, after all). We would like to share our experience to educate readers to become better investors and sidestep investments in such names.  

Onewo IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


China Internet Weekly (19Sep2022): Tencent, NetEase, Meituan, Trip.com

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent and NetEase received new licenses from the authorities more than a year.
  • Meituan’s car-hailing service joined Tencent WeChat’s traffic platform, Tencent Passenger Traffic.
  • Express parcels and their revenue continued to recover in August.

Morning Views Asia: China Fortune Land, Fosun International, Road King Infrastructure

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Keda Industrial Group, Genuine Biotech, CALB, Leapmotor and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Keda Industrial (600499 CH): Lithium Play Backed by Multi-Pronged Growth Strategies
  • Keda Industrial Group: Concerns About Downturn in Ceramics Machinery Market & Uncompelling Valuation
  • Genuine Biotech (GBL HK): COVID Pill No Longer Attractive Opportunity; Thin Pipeline Mars Conviction
  • ECM Weekly (18th Sep 2022) – CALB, Onewo, Leapmotor, WCP, Biogene, Socionext, Prop Guru, PayMate
  • Weekly Deals Digest (18 Sep) – Leapmotor, Onewo, WCP, Link, Ramsay, Giordano, VNET, FHT, Moya

Keda Industrial (600499 CH): Lithium Play Backed by Multi-Pronged Growth Strategies

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Through its 43.58% ownership in lithium carbonate producer Lanke Lithium Industry, Keda Industrial Group (600499 CH) is well placed to benefit from the increase in lithium demand.
  • Lanke’s capacity has recently been upgraded to 30,000 tonnes. Also, Keda is adding capacity to its own integrated anode materials factory in Fujian to capture the ever-rising demand. 
  • Overseas ceramic business will see solid growth from key markets in Africa as Keda raises capacity by 65% by FY23. The stock’s valuations are inexpensive relative to peers. 

Keda Industrial Group: Concerns About Downturn in Ceramics Machinery Market & Uncompelling Valuation

By Douglas Kim

  • We are Negative on Keda Industrial over the next year due to a potential downturn in the ceramics machinery market, uncompelling valuations, and concerns about expansion into lithium battery materials. 
  • Keda Industrial Group is one of the world’s leading suppliers of building ceramic machinery and equipment.
  • Its A-Shares listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange and it completed a private placement of GDRs listing the shares in SIX Swiss Exchange in July 2022. 

Genuine Biotech (GBL HK): COVID Pill No Longer Attractive Opportunity; Thin Pipeline Mars Conviction

By Tina Banerjee

  • Genuine Biotech (GBL HK) has filed for HK listing. Its Azvudine received NMPA approval for the treatment of COVID-19 in July 2022 to become the first China-made oral COVID-19 drug.
  • Azvudine was conditionally approved by the NMPA for the treatment of HIV infection in July 2021. However, the drug is yet to be commercialized.
  • Genuine Biotech plans to use the IPO proceeds for the commercialization of Azvudine. The company’s current cash balance can maintain its financial viability for approximately 20 months.

ECM Weekly (18th Sep 2022) – CALB, Onewo, Leapmotor, WCP, Biogene, Socionext, Prop Guru, PayMate

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, a few large Hong Kong IPOs are rumoured to be aiming to launch their bookbuild next week.
  • There was only the Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) mega entitlement offer this week, on the placements front.

Weekly Deals Digest (18 Sep) – Leapmotor, Onewo, WCP, Link, Ramsay, Giordano, VNET, FHT, Moya

By Arun George


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Daily Brief China: Hang Seng H Share Index ETF, Sino-Ocean Group, Agile Property Holdings, Onewo Space-Tech, S.F. Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 September 2022)
  • Weekly Wrap – 16 Sep 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 16 Sep 2022
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 16 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 16 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Onewo Space-Tech IPO (Part II): Margins to Remain Under Pressure in the Near-Term
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 September 2022)

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 September 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


Weekly Wrap – 16 Sep 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Fosun International
  2. China SCE
  3. CIFI Holdings
  4. Vedanta Resources
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 16 Sep 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Fosun International
  2. China SCE
  3. CIFI Holdings
  4. Vedanta Resources
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


Chinese Property Weekly – 16 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 16 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Onewo Space-Tech IPO (Part II): Margins to Remain Under Pressure in the Near-Term

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK) is a leading property management service provider in China looking to raise US$2bn through an IPO on the HKEx.
  • This is the Second of a series of reports on Onewo IPO and we will be discussing the company’s Commercial and Urban Space services and AIoT and BPaaS solution segments.
  • We expect Onewo’s margins to remain under pressure in the medium-term as the company focuses on customer acquisition which would likely impact margins in the near-term.

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 September 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief China: Dongzheng Automotive Finance, CALB, Lepu Medical Technology A, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Xinyi Solar Holdings, Sino-Ocean Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SAIC’s Unconditional Offer For Dongzheng Now Open
  • CALB IPO: Updates Support the Bull Case
  • Dongzheng’s Unconditional MGO at HK$1.2430 Opens
  • Lepu Medical GDR Listing – Financials Improved Sequentially, However, Price Momentum Has Been Weak
  • CALB Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • EQD | HSI (HSI Index): Use Derivatives to Play Tactical Long and Relative Value Vol Trade Vs SPX
  • Xinyi Solar, BYD, and Bank of China
  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings, Fosun International, Sino-Ocean Service

SAIC’s Unconditional Offer For Dongzheng Now Open

By David Blennerhassett


CALB IPO: Updates Support the Bull Case

By Arun George

  • CALB (CALBLZ CH), a leading EV battery manufacturer, is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion through an HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
  • We previously discussed the IPO in CALB IPO: The Bull Case and CALB IPO: The Bear Case. This note updates our view for the PHIP and recent developments.
  • The 1Q and truncated 1H numbers outline the highest growth among peers, customer diversification and sequential improvement in gross margin. The IPO is worth a look.

Dongzheng’s Unconditional MGO at HK$1.2430 Opens

By Arun George

  • Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)‘s composite document is out with the offer open from 15 September to 6 October. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable.
  • SAIC Motor (600104 CH), which acquired a 71.04% stake, has launched an unconditional MGO at HK$1.2430 per H Share. SAIC intends to maintain Dongzheng’s listing status.
  • At the last close and the 17 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the MGO price is 1.1% and 13.3%, respectively.

Lepu Medical GDR Listing – Financials Improved Sequentially, However, Price Momentum Has Been Weak

By Clarence Chu

  • Lepu Medical Technology A (300003 CH) is looking to raise up to US$550m in its Swiss GDR listing. Bookrunners on the deal are CICC, Citic Securities, and Credit Suisse.
  • The firm has earlier secured CSRC’s approval to list a maximum 36.09m GDRs (or 180.46m A-shares, at a 1:5 conversion). 
  • As per media reports, Lepu Medical will look to launch its Swiss GDR offering soon and the eventual deal size might amount to US$300m.

CALB Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • CALB aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products.
  • In our previous note, we undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

EQD | HSI (HSI Index): Use Derivatives to Play Tactical Long and Relative Value Vol Trade Vs SPX

By Simon Harris

  • HSI INDEX is trading back down to recent lows and support levels. It looks oversold and there are potential catalysts for a bounce
  • Implied vols are low and options offer a great way to play a tactical long
  • We highlight a relative value vol trade vs the SPX

Xinyi Solar, BYD, and Bank of China

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.
  • Hang Seng Index and most of its constituents continue to read like bear porn. Without a meaningful reversal/impulse rally, it is hard to call for a reversal.
  • I hear and agree the case is so bad that it must be a buy signal. The sentiment is precious, BUT it needs a price action supporting the exhaustion thesis.

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings, Fosun International, Sino-Ocean Service

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: 21Vianet Group, CALB, Eva Precision Industrial Holdings, 4Paradigm, Jenscare Scientific, First Pacific Co, China Conch Venture Holdings, Modern Dental Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • VNET: Management’s Low-Balled Non-Binding Proposal
  • CALB Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Top Growth, Bottom Margins, Fastest Expansion Plans
  • EVA Precision: Poor Mans Tesla/ EV Play/ Onwards and Upwards from H1 2022
  • 4Paradigm IPO: Is Third-Time a Charm?
  • CALB IPO: Solid PHIP Results Offset by Further Market Downturn
  • Pre-IPO Jenscare Scientific – Difficult to Achieve Expected Commercialization Results
  • First Pacific – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) Pre-IPO: Product Differentiation Is the Key Reason to Subscribe
  • Conch Venture (586 HK): An Overlooked Value Play
  • Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) 22H1- Share Price May Remain Tepid Due to Lack of Core Competitiveness

VNET: Management’s Low-Balled Non-Binding Proposal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 11 April, Chinese internet data center services provider VNET (VNET US) announced a non-binding proposal from Hina Group and Shanghai’s Industrial Bank at an utterly underwhelming US$8.00/ADS.
  • Then crickets. A reported tilt from MBK Partners failed to materialise.
  • VNET has now announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from founder Josh Sheng Chen, at a similarly underwhelming price of US$8.20/ADS. 

CALB Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Top Growth, Bottom Margins, Fastest Expansion Plans

By Sumeet Singh

  • CALB aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products.
  • In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and talk about the company’s expansion plans.

EVA Precision: Poor Mans Tesla/ EV Play/ Onwards and Upwards from H1 2022

By Sameer Taneja

  • Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) is a beneficiary of EV penetration globally and in China, trading at 9.4x /5.6x FY22/23e and 3.2%/5.3% dividend yield (30% payout ratio).
  • H1 2022 was groundbreaking for the company as it commenced strategic cooperation with  BYD (1211 HK) on products and bagged orders from Huwaei and Tesla, with more coming in H2.
  • There is additional room for buybacks as the stock price is < 2HKD and the company only completed 3-4% of its 200 mn HKD buyback.

4Paradigm IPO: Is Third-Time a Charm?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • 4Paradigm (1764934D HK) is a pioneer and leader in enterprise AI. Company offers platform-centric AI solutions to enterprises that can be deployed on a large scale to support decision making.
  • The company was ranked the largest player in the platform-centric decision-making AI market in China in 2021 and has filed for a HKEx listing for the third-time this month.
  • 4Paradigm’s top line and margins have improved since we last wrote on the company.

CALB IPO: Solid PHIP Results Offset by Further Market Downturn

By Douglas Kim

  • CALB’s revenue surged by 266% YoY to reach 3.9 billion RMB in 1Q 2022. Its  operating profit also increased by 43.5% YoY in 1Q 2022, respectively. 
  • CALB also had the highest sales growth rate of 266.5% YoY in 1Q 2022 versus 154% growth YoY for CATL and 63% growth YoY for BYD in 1Q 2022.
  • CALB is one of the most interesting large cap IPOs globally in 2022. Despite horrible market conditions, the company is trying to complete its IPO in the next several weeks.

Pre-IPO Jenscare Scientific – Difficult to Achieve Expected Commercialization Results

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The main bottleneck in this market in China is the severe shortage of doctors and limited qualified hospitals to carry out such surgery, leading to lower-than-expected market penetration/sales performance.
  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK)’s products have to face fierce competition, without obvious advantage of development progress, or the progress has already lagged behind the competitors. 
  • Overall, good valuation cannot be supported without promising commercialization outlook. We are not sure whether Jenscare can finally achieve the ideal return in the case of unfriendly external environment.

First Pacific – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

We view First Pacific (FIRPAC) as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. This is primarily due to the group’s strong assets and tight control over key investee companies, which ensure reliable dividend streams to service debt. The investment holding company has a reasonable track record. Its key assets include Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company, Indofood and Metro Pacific Investments Corp. The group’s asset concentration is offset by the strength of these companies, which are: [1] leaders in their market segments; and [2] stable non-cyclical businesses. Leverage is moderate (measured as Net Debt at Holdco/Market Value of Assets). The investment portfolio has high transparency, with almost all assets (based on NAV) being listed.

Our fundamental Credit Bias is “Stable”​, due to the subsidiaries’ robust performance.

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. As an investment holding company, FIRPAC does not face substantial regulatory, geopolitical or ESG risks.


Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) Pre-IPO: Product Differentiation Is the Key Reason to Subscribe

By Tina Banerjee

  • Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) is developing interventional products for the treatment of structural heart diseases. Its core product LuX-Valve is expected to become the first commercialized TTVR product in China.
  • With its comprehensive portfolio and early mover advantage, Jenscare is well-positioned to capitalize on large and underpenetrated China’s structural heart diseases treatment market worth of RMB20.3 billion in 2030.
  • Jenscare Scientific plans to raise $30 million (HKD234 million) in its third application for a Hong Kong IPO, with CICC and Citigroup being the joint sponsors.

Conch Venture (586 HK): An Overlooked Value Play

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) is now at negative stub value, the low-end since 2020. This is despite a 16.4% growth in 1H22 core earnings to Rmb542m.
  • The company’s waste-to-energy (WTE) capacity will increase by 25% in FY23 and its internal target calls for an earnings CAGR of 33% between FY21 and FY25 for WTE segment.
  • We should not underestimate the potential from new business initiatives including cathode and anode materials and lithium battery recycling. They have good medium-to-long term exposure to China’s new energy industry.

Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) 22H1- Share Price May Remain Tepid Due to Lack of Core Competitiveness

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to better-than-expected VBP results, we saw a decent rally of MDG’s share price last Friday. However, all the medical products that are covered by VBP begin to lose logic. 
  • Backwardness in R&D is a bottleneck restricting MDG’s future growth. MDG is more like a manufacturing/processing plant relying on labor dividends than a technology company with high product added value.
  • Multiple risks (e.g.pandemic, depreciation of exchange rate against US dollar, economic downturn, etc.) will add more uncertainties to MDG’s 2022 performance. MDG’s share price could remain tepid after temporary rally. 

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Daily Brief China: Giordano International, 21Vianet Group, CALB, 111 Inc, Netdragon Websoft, Genscript Biotech, Tencent, Kwg Property Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Giordano’s VGO Lapses
  • VNET’s Opportunistic US$8.20 Bid from the Founder
  • CALB Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Growth Picking up Further, Margins Turnaround
  • Arb Carnage As Giordano’s Offer Also Fails
  • 111 Inc’s Low-Balled Homecoming Is A Done Deal
  • Netdragon Websoft – Ms Tang Yu Becomes World’s First Virtual Humanoid Robot CEO
  • Genscript Biotech (1548.HK) 22H1 – The Outlook and the Risks Behind
  • Tencent: Excluded Again from New Game Approvals as NetEase Makes into the Approved List
  • Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, KWG Living Group, Sino-Ocean Service

Giordano’s VGO Lapses

By Arun George

  • The offeror and acceptances reached 46.04%, just short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. The offeror has decided to let the Giordano International (709 HK) offer lapse.
  • The offer fell short of the 50% threshold as the Cheng family mistakenly assumed that shareholders behind Halycon’s stake were friendly shares, which would support the offer.
  • The downside will be muted as the shares are trading in line with the 1-year average forward P/E, minorities thought the offer was low, and David Webb is a buyer.

VNET’s Opportunistic US$8.20 Bid from the Founder

By Arun George

  • 21Vianet Group (VNET US) disclosed a privatisation proposal from the founder at US$8.20 per ADS, a 2.5% premium to The Hina Group/Industrial Bank’s offer of US$8.00 (disclosed on 11 April).
  • The data centre industry continues to be a hotbed for M&A. Bloomberg reported on 27 July that MBK Partners is mulling an offer for VNET. 
  • The offer is unattractive, and Mr Cheng, with 28.79% of voting rights, will need the support of other substantial shareholders. This latest offer underlines the current mispricing of the shares

CALB Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Growth Picking up Further, Margins Turnaround

By Sumeet Singh

  • CALB aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • CALB undertakes design, R&D, production and sales of EV batteries and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) products. 
  • In this note, we talk about the updates from the company’s recent PHIP filings.

Arb Carnage As Giordano’s Offer Also Fails

By David Blennerhassett


111 Inc’s Low-Balled Homecoming Is A Done Deal

By David Blennerhassett

  • 111 Inc (YI US), an online healthcare platform operator in China, announced an unsolicited preliminary non-binding proposal from Gang Yu and Junling Liu – both co-founders and co-chairmans.
  • Yu and Liu are offering US$3.66/ADS, a 20% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • Yu and Liu control 92.1% of the votes. There is no shareholder vote on this transaction should a firm Offer unfold.

Netdragon Websoft – Ms Tang Yu Becomes World’s First Virtual Humanoid Robot CEO

By Douglas Kim

  • NetDragon Websoft announced that it has appointed Ms. Tang Wu (a virtual humanoid robot powered by AI) as its new CEO which would be the first ever in the world. 
  • The company’s education revenue increased by 71.2% YoY to reach 2.4 billion RMB in 1H 2022. Profitability of the edtech business is also improving.
  • Despite the company’s lower valuation multiples than its peers combined with catalysts including improving edtech business, we are cautious on its shares mainly due to the overall market related risks. 

Genscript Biotech (1548.HK) 22H1 – The Outlook and the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Genscript’s four business segments are the horizontal and vertical extension based on gene synthesis technology. There is also synergy between Genscript and its subsidiaries, which can promote each other’s development.
  • If only from the business level, GenScript is a worthy target for investment. It has the exponential growth potential in valuation and could reach a new high in the future.
  • However, our biggest worry lies in the “black swans events” . We don’t know what “new surprises” GenScript will bring us in the future. 

Tencent: Excluded Again from New Game Approvals as NetEase Makes into the Approved List

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • China’s gaming regulator granted publishing licenses to 73 online games on Tuesday, including one for NetEase Inc (NTES US) . However, Tencent (700 HK) was excluded for the fifth time.
  • Though the 9-month long new game approval freeze was lifted in April, it has been more than a year since Tencent received approval for a new title.
  • Tencent’s online game revenue declined YoY for two consecutive quarters and we expect online game revenue to decline further in 3Q2022E.

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, KWG Living Group, Sino-Ocean Service

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Tencent, Onewo Space-Tech, China Longyuan Power, Simcere Pharmaceutical Group, Health And Happiness (H&H), Tower Bersama Infrastructure and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four or Five Changes in December
  • Tencent : A Long but Use Options to Mitigate Any Broader Market Risks
  • China’s Real Estate Crisis: Threatening Headwinds on Onewo IPO
  • China Longyuan (916 HK): Brightened Prospects
  • Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096.HK) 22H1 – Gloomy Outlook and Risks in Profits
  • H&H International – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Longfor Properties, Tower Bersama Infrastructure

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four or Five Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly 90% of the way through the review period, we see 4 changes using a 12 month minimum listing history, and 5 changes using a 6 month minimum listing history.
  • There are overlaps in the inclusions using 6/12 month minimum listing history, so there is less risk if the index committee switches from 6 to 12 months at the review.
  • Using a 6 month minimum listing history, one-way turnover is estimated at 5.07% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 2,795m.

Tencent : A Long but Use Options to Mitigate Any Broader Market Risks

By Simon Harris

  • Derivative trade ideas to maintain upside/protect downside in Tencent. Stock is cheap but risks remain 
  • Take advantage of a retracement in implied vols and depressed skew levels to improve payoffs and protect against broader market risk
  • We look at 3 alternative trades depending on your position and outlook

China’s Real Estate Crisis: Threatening Headwinds on Onewo IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK) is getting ready to complete an IPO in Hong Kong in the coming weeks. The company is seeking to raise nearly US$2 billion in this IPO.
  • Onewo is one of the leading property management service providers in China with a market share of 4.3% in the US$16 billion industry in China. 
  • The major real estate downturn in China is one of the biggest headwinds on the Onewo IPO. 

China Longyuan (916 HK): Brightened Prospects

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • With concerns on weaker 1H22 profit and lower industry return (due to Lianjiang offshore project) now behind us, China Longyuan Power (916 HK) is well set for better 2H22.
  • Utilisation hours should see improvement while new capacity growth is another major driver. The upgrades of aged and small-sized units will almost double its existing capacity. 
  • Receipt of Rmb11.4bn subsidies clearly represented an acceleration in collection. This will stay as contributor to better cash flow and enhance financial position. 

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096.HK) 22H1 – Gloomy Outlook and Risks in Profits

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Simcere’s profit was mainly driven by the income of non-recurring items (investment business). Due to unfriendly external environment, investors are recommended to be prepared for further decline in net profit. 
  • The overall quality of Simcere’s pipeline is not high, which would be difficult to bring decent revenue in the next few years. Simcere’s transformation is not as smooth as expected.
  • In fact, over the years, Simcere’s strongest capability lies in the sales rather than R&D. Since the game rule changes, we are bearish on Simcere.

H&H International – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Shu Hui Woon

We view Health and Happiness International (H&H) as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. The company has a sound business profile, with stable branded products in the Baby Nutrition and Care​ (BNC) and Adult Nutrition and Care (ANC) markets. The acquisition of Zesty Paws in 2021 allowed H&H to expand into the Pet Nutrition and Care ​(PNC) business. The company’s strong distribution channels support cross-border and e-commerce sales strategies. That said, the positive factors are balanced by the risk of entering new markets and selling new products, along with the fragmented and competitive Chinese market. We like H&H’s solid business fundamentals, strong market positions and healthy financial profile. In particular, it has a sound liquidity profile and steady CFO.

We note that the acquisition has impacted H&H’s financial profile and weakened its leverage metrics. That said, PNC is part of the company’s sustainable growth plan. We expect it to work on deleveraging in the near term, in order to maintain a healthy credit profile.

The USD bondholders suffer material structural subordination. The issuing entity is a Cayman Islands company with no operating assets, and the PRC operating subsidiaries do not guarantee the USD notes. The level of priority creditors is high at the Australian subsidiary. Bondholders would have very limited access to assets in a liquidation scenario.

Our Credit Bias on H&H is “Stable”, given the company’s solid business fundamentals, strong market positions and moderate financial profile. The ANC and PNC segments are expected to deliver stronger performance, while BNC should continue facing challenges. As a result, ANC and PNC will likely be H&H’s key growth segments, offsetting the competitive BNC business. The company aims to expand into other business segments and markets outside China, in order to compensate for muted growth in the country.

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”.


Morning Views Asia: Longfor Properties, Tower Bersama Infrastructure

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: 111 Inc, Tencent, Innovex Medical, China SCE and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 111’s Opportunistic US$3.66 Bid from the Co-Founders
  • ECM Weekly (12th Sep 2022) – Onewo, CALB, YSB, Medanta, Beneunder, JMDC, SH Holdings, Indigo
  • China Internet Weekly (12Aug2022): Tencent, JD.com, Meituan, NetEase, Inkeverse
  • Pre-IPO Innovex Medical – A Comprehensive Product Portfolio Underpins Future Growth Prospects
  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Yuexiu Property
  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Yuexiu Property

111’s Opportunistic US$3.66 Bid from the Co-Founders

By Arun George

  • 111 Inc (YI US), the largest virtual pharmacy network in China, disclosed a privatisation proposal from a co-founder-led consortium at US$3.66 per ADS, a 20.0% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • For privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. The co-founders represent 92.04% of the total voting power.
  • The offer price is unattractive but this is a done deal. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a January 2023 completion is 11.6% and 33.4%, respectively. 

ECM Weekly (12th Sep 2022) – Onewo, CALB, YSB, Medanta, Beneunder, JMDC, SH Holdings, Indigo

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, a few large Hong Kong IPOs are lining up to launch soon.
  • Placements picked up this week in Japan and India with most being secondary deals.

China Internet Weekly (12Aug2022): Tencent, JD.com, Meituan, NetEase, Inkeverse

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent invested more in Ubisoft Entertainment, a French game developer.
  • The monthly active users of local life recovered in China in June and July.
  • NetEase will close Music Street, the social networking-oriented karaoke app.

Pre-IPO Innovex Medical – A Comprehensive Product Portfolio Underpins Future Growth Prospects

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • As one of the few companies in the world that could provide one-stop solutions including all major medical devices used in non-vascular interventional surgery, Innovex’s outlook is promising.
  • About 30% overseas revenue indicates that the Company’s internationalization is on track, which could help to “hedge” negative domestic policy risks.
  • In terms of the valuation, Innovex’s valuation should be higher than Scivita but lower than Aohua. However, Innovex has the potential to surpass Aohua in the future.

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief China: Soho China, Giordano International, CALB, Onewo Space-Tech, Tianqi Lithium and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Nikkei 225 Review, SK Chemicals, SingTel, Porsche, Tyro
  • Weekly Deals Digest (11 Sep) – Giordano, DTAC/True, Link Admin, Nitro, Tyro, Ramsay, CALB, Onewo
  • CALB IPO Preview
  • Onewo IPO: Trade-Offs Vs Peers
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, HSCEI, REMX, GDXJ, Link Admin

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Nikkei 225 Review, SK Chemicals, SingTel, Porsche, Tyro

By David Blennerhassett


Weekly Deals Digest (11 Sep) – Giordano, DTAC/True, Link Admin, Nitro, Tyro, Ramsay, CALB, Onewo

By Arun George


CALB IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • China Aviation Lithium Battery (CALB) is getting ready for an IPO in Hong Kong.
  • In the past several days, CALB received the approval from the Hong Kong stock exchange for an IPO.
  • In the next two years, CALB expects its production capacity for lithium batteries to increase to about 55 GWh which is more than 6x the capacity at end of 2021. 

Onewo IPO: Trade-Offs Vs Peers

By Arun George


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, HSCEI, REMX, GDXJ, Link Admin

By Brian Freitas


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
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  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars