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China: Zhihu Technology, Simcere Pharmaceutical Group, Zai Lab Ltd, China Jinmao Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Zhihu Dual-Primary Listing: A Question of Judgment
  • Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK): Double-Digit Topline Growth; Margin Deteriorating Spoils the Party
  • Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB.US/9688.HK) – Will Zai Lab Go into a Vicious Circle?
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, China Jinmao Holdings, Country Garden Holdings Co

Zhihu Dual-Primary Listing: A Question of Judgment

By Arun George

  • Zhihu Technology (ZH US) has launched an HKEx dual-primary listing to raise $150-200 million. Zhihu will not receive any of the net proceeds as it is offering from selling shareholders.
  • Zhihu shares are down 73% from the IPO price of $9.50 per ADS (March 2021) largely due to the tech sell-off and regulatory uncertainty on ADR listings.  
  • While a loss-making Chinese tech name is not everybody’s cup of tea in the current environment, Zhihu has delivered resilient performance and the valuation is undemanding. 

Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK): Double-Digit Topline Growth; Margin Deteriorating Spoils the Party

By Tina Banerjee

  • Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) reported an 11% y/y revenue growth to RMB5 billion, mainly driven by 54% y/y revenue growth from innovative pharmaceuticals.
  • However, gross margin contracted 160 basis point to 78.4%, reflecting pricing headwind. Heavy R&D and selling and distribution expenses are taking toll on operating profit.
  • During 2021, Simcere has added six registered clinical trials for phase 3, two trails for phase 2, three trails for phase 1, and obtained 12 clinical trial approvals for drugs.

Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB.US/9688.HK) – Will Zai Lab Go into a Vicious Circle?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to its early involvement in license-in mode, Zai Lab could in-license many high-quality candidates at a low price in the early stage, thus leading to today’s achievements.
  • However, the increasingly low cost performance of in-licensed products has made the capital “reconsider”, because it is increasingly difficult to maintain high growth as before based on license-in mode.
  • Zai Lab could be a good short-term trade,especially when it reaches licensing deals or launch new products,but doubts about long-term prospects could discourages investors from holding it for long term.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, China Jinmao Holdings, Country Garden Holdings Co

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: Tencent, Hansoh Pharmaceutical and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, MSCI, ASX200, CSI300, HDFC/HDFCB, PPT/PDL
  • Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Bottom-Fishing Idea; Market Is Overlooking Innovative Portfolio

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, MSCI, ASX200, CSI300, HDFC/HDFCB, PPT/PDL

By Brian Freitas


Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Bottom-Fishing Idea; Market Is Overlooking Innovative Portfolio

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) is increasingly focusing on innovative drug, with revenue from such drugs contributing 42% of total revenue in 2021. R&D accounted for 18% of revenue in 2021.
  • Thus far, in this year, Hansoh received approval for one more new rare-disease drug. Its rich pipeline has 25+ clinical programs of innovative drugs.
  • With its proven execution on innovative portfolio, sound financial positions, and recent business collaboration effort to enrich the pipeline, Hansoh seems to be an undervalued business.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: Tencent, JD.com Inc (ADR), Dongfang Electric, China Treasury, OneConnect Financial Technology, PC Partner, Hopson Development and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI May Index Rebalance Preview: Potential FIF Changes & Impact
  • JD.com (JD): Layoff Plan Covers Only Minor Businesses, Still a Buy
  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Beaten Down Too Excessively
  • Rates in Asia Underperform Following the Fed Hike and Russia’s Invasion
  • OneConnect Files for Secondary Listing; Not Yet a Convincing Story
  • PC Partner (1263) 7.50 Buy Zone for New Chart Highs
  • Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Hopson Development, Times China

MSCI May Index Rebalance Preview: Potential FIF Changes & Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • MSCI comprehensively evaluates the free float for stocks at the May SAIR. The changes will be announced on 12 May and implemented at the close on 31 May.
  • We expect an increase in the FIF for some stocks. Largest inflows are expected on Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), JD Health (6618 HK) and KakaoBank (323410 KS)
  • There is reasonably large short interest on some of the stocks and there could be some short covering on stocks where there could be large passive inflows.

JD.com (JD): Layoff Plan Covers Only Minor Businesses, Still a Buy

By Ming Lu

  • JD dismissed employees in many businesses, such as Retail, International, and Jingxi.
  • However, we believe the layoff only covers minor businesses and functions.
  • We believe the stock still has a upside of 48%.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Beaten Down Too Excessively

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We think the recent price weakness of Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is overdone, and there is strong value proposition on the stock based on its current multiples.
  • DEC’s orderbook has well covered in the next two years, while we see cost management measures will help mitigating the pressure on margin. 
  • It is well positioned to capture the wind power boom (26% of FY21 revenue) and remains the prime beneficiary of China’s hydrogen economy and pumped storage demand in the longer-term.

Rates in Asia Underperform Following the Fed Hike and Russia’s Invasion

By Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

  • Financial markets are dominated by uncertainties being created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the potential economic impact of the Fed raising rates and unwinding its balance sheet simultaneously.
  • The volatility and level of rates in EM are rising with the US but with differentiation: Asia and Central Europe are underperforming, while Latin America is outperforming.
  • The possibility of binary economic scenarios playing out as a result of the current uncertainties makes me pause for more clarity before making new trade recommendations.

OneConnect Files for Secondary Listing; Not Yet a Convincing Story

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US) is a leading technology-as-a-service provider for financial services industry in China.
  • The company is currently listed in the US and recently filed for a secondary listing in Hong Kong in an attempt to boost the liquidity of its shares.
  • OCFT still relies on its parent Ping An to generate most of its revenues and despite seeing strong growth in top line, the company is still far from profits.

PC Partner (1263) 7.50 Buy Zone for New Chart Highs

By Thomas Schroeder

  • PC Partners has solid bull base line support to stage a fresh bull cycle. Old high support and key lows rest at the 7.50 level. 
  • RSI is due to rally off of the bull wedge breakout support. Buy volumes are constructive on strength with weak sell volume on recent weakness (underlying bullish).
  • 12.50 and 14 bull targets with the later the hurdle to clear to open the way higher.

Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Hopson Development, Times China

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: Baidu, Yanzhou Coal Mining, Medlive Technology, China Longyuan Power Group Corp, JD Health, ABM Investama, First Pacific Co, Logan Property Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI May Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Listing Switches & Implications
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Maxing Out the 30 Changes
  • Medlive – High Conviction Update 2022
  • China Longyuan (916 HK): It Deserves the Premium
  • JD Health (6618.HK) 2021 Results – The Logic and the Outlook
  • Asia HY Monthly – LARA Transition Study – Lucror Analytics
  • First Pacific – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Jingrui Holdings, Tata Steel Thailand, Times China

MSCI May Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Listing Switches & Implications

By Brian Freitas


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Maxing Out the 30 Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • With a few weeks to the end of the review period, we see 30 potential changes (the maximum allowed at a review) to the index in June.
  • Most of the changes are high probability ones. We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.48% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn.
  • The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last couple of months. There could be more to go here as positions are built in the next few weeks.

Medlive – High Conviction Update 2022

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Medlive’s shares are currently trading at HK$8.15 per share and lost almost 70% YTD which we think was due to the ongoing regulatory crackdown on tech platforms in China.
  • Medlive’s 2021 revenues grew 33.2% YoY to RMB284m while adjusted OP grew 19.0% YoY to RMB123m. Shares reacted negatively due to slowdown in top line growth.
  • Medlive is currently trading at FY2 EV/Revenue of 0.97x compared to 34.3x when we last wrote. We think shares are extremely cheap and offers a good entry point.

China Longyuan (916 HK): It Deserves the Premium

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK) is expected to see an exciting year on the back of faster capacity growth, increase in utilisation hours and higher average tariff.
  • Potential asset injection from its parent CHN Energy remains a wild card. It may grow its capacity by an average of 30% over the next three years if materialises.
  • Lower funding costs and the return to A-share are positive to Longyuan’s expansion. We think consensus forecasts for next 2 years are too low and represent potential upside surprises.

JD Health (6618.HK) 2021 Results – The Logic and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The 2021 performance of JD Health (6618 HK) beat market expectation. The scale of annual active users, commodity SKU, warehouse, logistics, medical resources, etc. all had breakthroughs.
  • The growth rate and gross margin of service revenue were higher than that of product revenue. So, the performance of service sector can better determine JD Health’s future outlook.
  • The outlook of online healthcare service is uncertain.Whether successful or not, JD Health still has other businesses to support future development, and is therefore our top pick in this sector.

Asia HY Monthly – LARA Transition Study – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

This month, we undertake a study of movements in the Lucror Analytics Risk Assessment (LARA) for issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index over the last five years.

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.


First Pacific – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

First Pacific’s FY 2021 results were robust, with good performance across the investee companies. Management’s guidance is positive for FY 2022 and beyond. The financial risk profile remains stable, with no real improvement as excess cash flows are mainly returned to shareholders. Liquidity is adequate.


Morning Views Asia: Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Jingrui Holdings, Tata Steel Thailand, Times China

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: Alibaba Group, JD Health, Smoore International, JCET Group, Times China, Country Garden Holdings Co, China SCE, Wuxi Biologics and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China ADRs Delisting – Tide Is Turning with CSRC Showing Signs of a Compromise
  • JD Health (6618 HK): Revenue Accelerated in 2H21, Demand from Lockdown, But Overvalued
  • Smoore (6969 HK): Harsher E-Cigarette Law and Lower Growth Rate in 2H21
  • JCET (600584.CH): The Demand Was Strong in 2021, but 1Q22 Should Be a Seasonal Decline.
  • Times China – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Guangzhou R&F Properties, KWG Living Group
  • China SCE – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) 2021 Results – The Highlights and the Concerns

China ADRs Delisting – Tide Is Turning with CSRC Showing Signs of a Compromise

By Sumeet Singh

  • On 2nd Apr 2022, CSRC put out a draft for public comments on the revision of certain provisions which would allow easier access by overseas regulators to China ADRs audits.
  • On 8th Mar 2022, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) had added five China ADR names to its provisional list of issuers under HFCAA, which set the clock ticking for their delisting.
  • In this note, we’ll talk about the latest developments and its implications.

JD Health (6618 HK): Revenue Accelerated in 2H21, Demand from Lockdown, But Overvalued

By Ming Lu

  • The YoY growth rate of product revenue accelerated in 2H21, compared to 1H21.
  • In China, many cities are locked down; therefore, we believe people need online medical shopping.
  • However, the stock is overvalued compared with other online and offline medical stores.

Smoore (6969 HK): Harsher E-Cigarette Law and Lower Growth Rate in 2H21

By Ming Lu

  • The new draft of the e-cigarette law will crack down the domestic market.
  • The revenue growth rate plunged in 2H21 despite the fact that the growth rate accelerated for the whole year 2021.
  • We set a downside of 27% and a price target of HK$13.90 for 2022.

JCET (600584.CH): The Demand Was Strong in 2021, but 1Q22 Should Be a Seasonal Decline.

By Patrick Liao

  • JCET has reported 2021 annual results, and there was RMB$8.59bn/9.5% of revenue/NM percentage in 4Q21. JCET 2021 grew 6.0% QoQ and 11.5% YoY respectively.
  • Despite US-China trade war, the revenue from US clients are taking 50.2% in 2021, which is growing 23% from 2020 to 2021. 
  • Given the 5G and China Automotive are developing actively, we believe these two applications shall be keeping the energetic momentum.

Times China – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Times China’s top line strengthened in FY 2021, owing to higher ASP and an increase in property sales. We note that H2 sales remained resilient against the negative headwinds in the industry, with aggregated contracted sales amounting to CNY 96 bn in FY 2021 and H2 contracted sales to CNY 51 bn.


Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Guangzhou R&F Properties, KWG Living Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


China SCE – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

SCE’s FY 2021 results were satisfactory, with sustained contracted sales and revenue despite weaker margins. The pace of property delivery remained decent, reflecting the company’s efficient execution and good access to financing to support construction works. The softer margins stemmed from price controls and increasing land prices. Going forward, management’s strategy includes progressing steadily to deal with the volatility in the industry.


Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) 2021 Results – The Highlights and the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The continuous increase of backlog and CMO projects would provide high visibility and certainty for the growth of Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) in 2022.
  • Given the complex international relations, it is possible that the US may add WuXi Biologics to any sanctions list again in the future, which means large stock price volatility.
  • There could be some short-term rally, but due to the lack of clear positive “signals” in the industry, we do not think it means a complete “reversal” for WuXi Biologics. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: Lenovo, NIO Inc, China Communications Construction, Innovent Biologics Inc, Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited, Health And Happiness (H&H) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Lenovo Could Replace Hansoh Pharma; Great Wall In/Sunac Out?
  • Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact as NIO (9866) Could Replace ASM Pacific (522)
  • China Comm Const (1800 HK): Takeaways from Post-FY21 Result Call
  • Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) – Capable of Surviving “this Winter”
  • Jin Jiang Capital (2006 HK): Composite Doc Out. 26 April H-Class Meeting
  • Morning Views Asia: Honghua Group, Hopson Development, Tata Motors ADR

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Lenovo Could Replace Hansoh Pharma; Great Wall In/Sunac Out?

By Brian Freitas


Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact as NIO (9866) Could Replace ASM Pacific (522)

By Brian Freitas


China Comm Const (1800 HK): Takeaways from Post-FY21 Result Call

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Communications Construction (1800 HK) targets for at least 6% growth in revenue with slight operating margin expansion for FY22; and these should sustain its stable growth trend. 
  • It will increase focus on “big city” projects where there are more opportunities. We think its target of at least 11.8% new contract value growth in FY22 is conservative.
  • Reduction in losses at concessionary projects, improvement in operating cash flow and lowering of gearing levels all indicate that CCCC is moving in the right direction.

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) – Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The biggest characteristic of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.
  • If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent’s upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. 
  • Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. 

Jin Jiang Capital (2006 HK): Composite Doc Out. 26 April H-Class Meeting

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hotel operator Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited (2006 HK)‘s Composite Doc is out. The H-Class meeting on the 26 April, with expected payment on the 17 May.
  • The IFA considers the Offer to be fair and reasonable. 
  • This is done and trading tight at a gross/annualised spread of 1.6%/14%. 

Morning Views Asia: Honghua Group, Hopson Development, Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: JD.com Inc., Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd., Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (3rd Apr 2022)- JD, Tencent, Prosus, One Store, SK Shieldus, FWD, Ferretti, Recbio, Belle
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, KOSDAQ150, HSCEI, KT Corp, JD.com, Tabcorp
  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval
  • Jin Jiang Capital’s H Share Class Meeting on 26 April, IFA Opinion
  • SMIC (981.HK): Local Demand Is Very Strong, but EUV Embargo Is Constrained Technical Growth Still.

ECM Weekly (3rd Apr 2022)- JD, Tencent, Prosus, One Store, SK Shieldus, FWD, Ferretti, Recbio, Belle

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • Placements continued to flow in, at a slower pace than last week, with Malaysia and ANZ chipping in.
  • While the HK IPO scene failed to produce anything noteworthy with its two listing, South Korea appears to be leading the charge, once again.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, KOSDAQ150, HSCEI, KT Corp, JD.com, Tabcorp

By Brian Freitas


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)’s oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.
  • However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.
  • PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.

Jin Jiang Capital’s H Share Class Meeting on 26 April, IFA Opinion

By Arun George

  • Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited (2006 HK)‘s H Shareholders’ class meeting is scheduled for 26 April. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. 
  • The 10% blocking stake is 2.50% of outstanding shares (10.00% of H Shares). The two H Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive. There is no minimum acceptance condition.
  • At last close and for a 17 May payment date, the gross and annualised spread to the total offer is 1.6% and 15.7%, respectively.

SMIC (981.HK): Local Demand Is Very Strong, but EUV Embargo Is Constrained Technical Growth Still.

By Patrick Liao

  • SMIC will spend ~US$5bn in Capex in 2022, of which only the Beijing Fab is 12”, and Shenzhen and Tianjin are 8” Fabs.
  • SMIC has three major trends: 1) the local demand is booming rapidly, 2) Auto, industry and others have developed actively, and 3) Huawei’s event had made a great impact.
  • We note SMIC’s capacity of each Fab is an estimation because 1) the local governments’ subsidies are somewhat complicated, and 2) it is involved with three local governments in 2022.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: Vipshop Holdings, China Conch Venture Holdings, Seazen (Formerly Future Land), Shimao Property Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Vipshop: With Net Cash at Nearly 50% of Market Cap, Is It a Value Trap or a Takeover Target?
  • China Conch (586 HK): Post-Spinoff Blues
  • Seazen Group – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 01 Apr 2022

Vipshop: With Net Cash at Nearly 50% of Market Cap, Is It a Value Trap or a Takeover Target?

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Vipshop has underperformed, on a 12-month basis, due to a slowdown in active user growth, which has spilt over into slower revenue growth and contracting earnings.
  • Material equity investments, accompanied by strategic cooperation agreements, by Tencent and JD.com in December 2017 catalysed significant user growth over the subsequent 3 years.
  • The recent de-rating once again flags Vipshop as an attractive takeover target for its current strategic shareholders and broader eCommerce rivals, including nascent disruptors and live-streaming operators.

China Conch (586 HK): Post-Spinoff Blues

By David Blennerhassett

  • In my last note, I thought China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) (CCV) appeared fully-priced. If I had been long CCV, I recommended getting out. 
  • CCV shed HK$11.35/share after going ex- the China Conch Environment Protection Holdings (587 HK) (CCEP) water treatment in-specie spin-off. CCEP closed at HK$9.77/share on its first day of trading.
  • CCV is trading back to around levels prior to the announcement of the spin-off. Separately, CCEP appears to be trading rich relative to waste treatment peers.

Seazen Group – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Seazen’s FY 2021 results were in line with our expectations, with the company accelerating the pace of property delivery and maintaining a reasonable pace of debt growth to facilitate expansion during H1. It halted land acquisitions and focused on building up liquidity amid market volatility in H2.

We view the company’s refinancing risk as moderate, with Seazen having access to onshore funding. ​Seazen is likely to slow its expansion in the commercial property segment, given the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and poor market sentiment. We believe the company will resume land acquisitions in 2022, in order to replenish the land bank. Going forward, Seazen is committed to maintaining stability in its operations and having strong liquidity, so as to weather the volatile market conditions.


Weekly Wrap – 01 Apr 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. First Pacific Co
  2. Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H
  3. Indika Energy
  4. Lippo Karawaci
  5. Agile Property Holdings

and more…


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: 51 Job Inc Adr, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Jiangsu Recbio Technology, Sinotrans, Shenzhen International, V3 Brands Asia, Anton Oilfield, Central China Real Estate, Greenland Hong Kong Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 51job (JOB US): EGM On The 27 April
  • 51job’s Privatisation Offer to Be Voted for on 27 April
  • HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments
  • RecBio (江苏瑞科) IPO Trading: Fairly Valued for Vaccine Hype
  • Sinotrans (598 HK): Record FY21, Takeaways from Post-Result Call
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): More Room to Realise Underlying Asset Value
  • V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO – The Positives – Margins and Revenue Have Grown
  • Anton Oilfield – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Central China – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, CIFI Holdings, Greenko Energy Holdings, Honghua Group

51job (JOB US): EGM On The 27 April

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 1 March, 51 Job Inc (JOBS US) said it had entered into a revised merger agreement at US$61.00/share, 22.8% down from the initial terms. 
  • 51job has now announced that it has called an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders to be held on April 27.
  • Despite regulatory opacity, this transaction appears done. Separately, 51job’s FY21 financials will be released tomorrow.

51job’s Privatisation Offer to Be Voted for on 27 April

By Arun George

  • The EGM to approve the 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US)’s privatisation offer of $61.00 in cash per ADS will be held at 9 am (Shanghai time) on 27 April.
  • The transaction is expected to close during the second quarter of 2022. The continuing shareholders represent 56.2% of the voting rights according to the proxy statement.
  • Based on 67.5 million ADS entitled to vote at the EGM, around 21% of disinterested shareholders are required to vote in favour to meet the two-thirds voting threshold.

HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

By Brian Freitas

  • Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.
  • CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)‘s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. 
  • Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.

RecBio (江苏瑞科) IPO Trading: Fairly Valued for Vaccine Hype

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Jiangsu RecBio raised HKD 672m (USD 86m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Thursday, March 31st.
  • In the previous note, we looked at the company’s core products, including its HPV portfolio and the COVID-19 vaccine. 
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

Sinotrans (598 HK): Record FY21, Takeaways from Post-Result Call

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Sinotrans (598 HK) has a record year in FY21 with recurring earnings increased 44% YoY. Margin for 4Q21 has shown some improvements against 9M21. 
  • Management is generally cautiously optimistic for this year, but also highlighted weaker visibility for the outlook given high base, sporadic COVID-19 outbreak and geopolitical uncertainties. 
  • We expect slower earnings growth in FY22, with e-commerce segment being the best-performing. We see lesser credit and asset impairments, and it is cheap at 3.7x PER and 10% yield. 

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): More Room to Realise Underlying Asset Value

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Shenzhen International (152 HK) posted 11% profit decline for FY21, with Shenzhen Airlines the main drag. Stripping this and one-off items out, its bottom line would have grown by 46.6%.
  • Logistics growth pipeline is highly visible, and this adds to potential gains from logistics park transformation and strategic offload of matured and suitable projects through REIT or private fund.
  • The stock remains a deeply undervalued asset play at just 0.48x P/B. Its willingness to share gains with investors has put its dividend yield at 10.4% on current share price.

V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO – The Positives – Margins and Revenue Have Grown

By Clarence Chu

  • V3 Brands Asia (V3 HK) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It was previously listed on the SGX between 2000-2016.
  • V3 Brands Asia is a lifestyle and wellness firm, it is most known for its flagship massage chairs which are sold under the OSIM brand.
  • It has also recorded a bounce back post-COVID as average revenue per store surged. Margins have expanded as well owing to operating leverage and the firm’s partnership with Daito-OSIM.

Anton Oilfield – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Anton Oilfield’s FY 2021 results were in line with expectations, with higher profitability offsetting a revenue decline as the company focused on quality and profitable orders. The financial risk profile has improved and guidance for 2022 is very positive. Liquidity appears to be adequate, considering that the company may have just enough cash to pay back the USD 2022 notes (USD 177 mn outstanding). Once the notes have been repaid, leverage should improve significantly.

We move our recommendation to “Buy” from “Hold” on the ANTOIL 7.5 22.


Central China – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Central China Real Estate’s (CCRE) FY 2021 results remained weaker than expected, albeit slightly improved from H1. The company’s net debt deteriorated y-o-y, and it has now breached all of the regulator’s Three Red Lines thresholds. Moreover, liquidity is inadequate and Cash/ST Debt has fallen below 1x.

Going forward, we expect CCRE to focus on reducing leverage and increasing cash flows. We view positively Chairman Wu Po Sum’s intention to receive his dividends in shares instead of cash, as well as management’s improved transparency and disclosures over the last six months. CCRE is optimistic that it can generate sufficient cash collections to repay the USD 500 mn bonds due in August, on the back of supportive measures recently implemented by the Henan government.


Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, CIFI Holdings, Greenko Energy Holdings, Honghua Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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China: Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited, Kunlun Energy, Belle International Holdings, Shougang Fushan Resources, Kuaishou Technology, West China Cement, JD Health, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, AAC Technologies Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Jin Jiang Capital (2006 HK): Tardy, But Pre-Con Approvals Were Never In Doubt
  • Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Better FY21 than Peers
  • Belle Fashion Pre-IPO – The Positives – Try Walking in My Shoes
  • Fushan Resources: Swimming in Cash
  • Kuaishou (1024 HK): 4Q21, Strong Data, Both Financial and Operating
  • West China Cement – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • JD Health 2H2021: Healthy Results with More Than 60% Top Line Growth
  • CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093.HK) – Conservative About the Business Transformation Outlook
  • AAC Technologies – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Kuaishou 4Q2021: Strong Quarter with Recovery in Livestreaming and Improvement in Profitability

Jin Jiang Capital (2006 HK): Tardy, But Pre-Con Approvals Were Never In Doubt

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hotel operator Shanghai Jin Jiang Capital Company Limited (2006 HK) announced yesterday that all pre-conditions to the Offer from Shanghai SASAC have been satisfied.  
  • The Composite Document is expected to be dispatched on or before the 1 April.
  • Based on precedents for the privatisation of PRC incorporated companies, absent a tendering condition, payment is expected around the third week of May, on the assumption the vote gets up.

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Better FY21 than Peers

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Kunlun Energy (135 HK) posted a 43.6% YoY growth in net profit for FY21, which is ahead of peers like ENN Energy (2688 HK) and CR Gas (1193 HK)
  • While 2H21 gas sales segment is weaker, the contraction of dollar margin for Kunlun is light at 3.8% YoY. The other gas utilities companies are seeing 12-15% decline.
  • Its net cash reached Rmb3.3bn at end-FY21, and number of new city gas projects reached 17 in 2H21, vs. 13 only in 1H21, indicating good pick-up in momentum. 

Belle Fashion Pre-IPO – The Positives – Try Walking in My Shoes

By Sumeet Singh

  • Belle Fashion (BF) aims to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing, which would mark its return to the stock market after five years.
  • Belle Fashion is the largest China-based fashion footwear and apparel group based on 2020 retail sales value, according to Frost & Sullivan (F&S). 
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Fushan Resources: Swimming in Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) is in deep value territory with coking prices averaging over 2600 RMB/ton for the year ( Vs. last years average of 2000 RMB/ton)
  • The stock trades at 2.6x PE, 0.8x EV-EBITDA with a 22% dividend yield at current spot prices of 2950 RMB/ton, making this an extremely cheap value play. 
  • Further buffer is provided by net cash of 6.7 bn HKD, representing 44% of the market capitalization. Fushan can trade up to 3.50 HKD (20% upside) in the near term.

Kuaishou (1024 HK): 4Q21, Strong Data, Both Financial and Operating

By Ming Lu

  • Both monthly active users and time on site grew strongly in 4Q21.
  • Live streaming revenue recovered quarter over quarter in 3Q21 and 4Q21.
  • Operating loss decreased in 4Q21, compared to the first three quarters in 2021.

West China Cement – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

WCC’s FY 2021 results were somewhat weak, due to the gross margin contraction amid high coal costs. That said, we do not foresee much room for further margin compression, given the already high base for coal prices. Meanwhile, the weaker leverage was within expectations, given that the company continues to invest heavily for its expansion in Africa.

In our view, WCC’s expansion in Africa will improve geographical diversification and profitability, as management highlighted that the projects in this region can fetch high margins. That said, leverage is likely to continue deteriorating, as the projects will take time to ramp up. The company may also be exposed to geopolitical and execution risks in the frontier markets. In addition, there is a development lead time of c. 2 years before the projects can generate meaningful earnings.


JD Health 2H2021: Healthy Results with More Than 60% Top Line Growth

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • JD Health (6618 HK) reported results on Monday. Revenue grew 60.7% YoY to RMB17.0bn (vs consensus RMB14.9bn) while OP losses expanded to RMB808m from RMB48m a year ago.
  • Similar to 1H2021, huge share-based payment expenses were the reason for increase in Operating losses, excl. these, JDH made a healthy OP of RMB1.8bn, an OPM of 10.4%.
  • JDH’s online healthcare business is still at an early stage and the company has taken several initiatives to explore more opportunities and capitalise on digital transformation in the healthcare sector.

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093.HK) – Conservative About the Business Transformation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to the lack of differentiated and frontier enough target layout, the commercialization potential would be more easily questioned, with high uncertainty of having the next NBP level products.
  • CSPC has made easy money from a few large varieties/generic drugs for many years, but is destined to make the business transformation more difficult, because the “opportunity cost” is high.
  • CSPC’s products have lost their pricing power. Therefore, when its valuation is very low or the entire sector is moving upward, this stock could be traded due to positive momentum.

AAC Technologies – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

We view AAC Technologies as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale, mainly due to the company’s market position in the acoustics segment, healthy financial profile and diversified product range. AAC is a supplier to reputable brands such as Apple, Samsung, Lenovo, LG Electronics, Huawei Technologies and Xiaomi Corp. The acoustics business is the company’s key profit centre. That said, AAC will need to further diversify its products to keep up with clients’ needs, as well as expand the customer base to boost revenue. The company’s operations and expansion plans could be disrupted by the resurgence of COVID-19 cases.

Our Credit Bias on AAC is “Stable”, given the company’s leading position in the acoustics segment, solid business fundamentals and healthy financial profile. That said, AAC may face supply disruptions due to the resurgence of COVID-19 cases, especially since Greater China is one of the company’s largest markets.


Kuaishou 4Q2021: Strong Quarter with Recovery in Livestreaming and Improvement in Profitability

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Kuaishou reported 4Q2021 results yesterday. Revenue grew 35.0% YoY to RMB24.4bn (vs consensus RMB23.1bn) while operating losses for the quarter dropped to 23.7% of revenues to RMB5.8bn (vs consensus RMB5.72bn).
  • The company’s operating losses widened to 36.1% of revenues in 3Q2021 while revenue from livestreaming further declined during the last quarter.
  • In our previous insight, we highlighted Kuaishou’s cost cutting measures to help improve operating efficiency and forecasted operating losses to be in the range of 22-25% of revenues in 4Q2021

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma