Equity Bottom-Up Archives | Page 23 of 222 | Smartkarma

• On 12 May 2025, Sankyo Co Ltd (6417 JP) announced earnings (Revenue -3.7%yoy, OP +1.5%, Net Profit +0.4%) with guidance for March 2026 showing Revs, OP, and NP all falling.
• OP and NP would fall 14.4% and 18.5% respectively. The dividend is expected to fall ¥10 to ¥90/share which would be a 41.6% payout ratio.
• The company also announced a BIG BUYBACK – Up to ¥60bn buying up to 30.0mm shares (13.66%), starting today and going through 31 March 2026.

• The 1Q25 result is quite healthy, but the shrinking minor business, social entertainment, covers the fact.
• The main businesses grew by two digits and the operating margin continued to grow by 28% YoY in 1Q25.
• We believe the stock has an upside of 83% and a price target of US$26 for the yearend 2025.

• Revenues are hitting the bottom in 1Q25, most firms mention sequential growth in 2Q, sometimes YoY growth. Trends depend on specific firms, mentions of both Auto and Industrial recovering.
• Gross / operating profit recovery could take a bit longer as inventory and price concessions could negate revenue growth for a couple of quarters.
• 2 categories of stocks: the cheap ones (NXP, Onsemi, Renesas, STMicro) and the expensive stocks (Analog Devices, Infineon, Microchip, Texas Instruments). I’d go with Renesas and Texas Instruments.

• SMBC, a major Japanese bank, is buying a 20% stake in Yes Bank for INR 13,483 crore, marking a significant move towards strengthening Yes Bank’s recovery and future growth.
• It provides SMBC direct access to India’s growing banking sector and potential for strategic collaboration.
• The partnership enhances Yes Bank’s stability, governance, and access to global markets, positioning it for further growth. SMBC’s involvement could pave the way for future capital support and operational improvements.

• In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between LG Electronics (066570 KS) (long) and LG Display (034220 KS) (short). 
• LG Display is likely to face greater margin pressures than LG Electronics this year, which could lead a bigger consensus estimates downward revisions for LG Display than LG Electronics. 
• Both LG Electronics and LG Display are trading at 0.6x P/B multiples. Given LG Electronics’ much higher ROE vs LG Display, LG Electronics should be trading at higher valuation multiples. 

• Revenue up 7% Y on Y basis.  PBT and PAT up 19% 
• Operating profit of both consumer and healthcare business was up 15 & 18% respectively
• Cash flow from operations up by 11% and working capital improved

• China Hongqiao has delivered steady ~6 Mt volumes, ~25% EBITDA CAGR, and 15–27% ROCE over the last three years, supported by integration and energy transition gains.
• China Hongqiao is relocating 4 Mt of capacity to Yunnan to tap low-carbon hydropower, advancing its green aluminium transition.
• China Hongqiao offers strong earnings visibility backed by low-cost operations, while trading at attractive valuations relative to peers.

• Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)  delivered a decent operational performance in Q4 FY25, with a flat topline and margin recovery, led by robust performance in the Jaguar Land Rover business.
• While the Q4 FY25 performance was steady, we expect near-term results to remain muted.
• Therefore, we present a case for shorting Tata Motors in the near term and outlook on individual segments.

• In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Delhaize aims for market leadership in online groceries in Belgium • ASM International | looking for bolt-on acquisitions • Heineken | row with Jumbo not only on price gap but also on lower discount • InPost | signs contract with ASOS for D+1 OOH delivery in the UK • TKH Group | slow start of the year as expected, reiterates FY25 guidance • Alfen | revises both FY25 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance downward • Kendrion | Mobility continues its strong growth, Industrial mixed performance

• From FY03/22 to FY03/24, Q4 revenue accounted for over 30% of full-year revenue, with Q4 operating profit over 80%.
• In FY03/25, the company reported revenue of JPY57.7bn (+22.2% YoY) and operating profit of JPY4.9bn (+75.4% YoY).
• For FY03/26, the company forecasts revenue of JPY59.6bn (+3.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY3.9bn (-19.9% YoY).

• Strong Execution: 3-yr PAT CAGR of ~22% with ₹80,354 Cr order book offers 2–4 years of revenue visibility from high-margin defence programs.
• Growth Levers: Expanding in seekers, EW, AI, and smart infra; 5 new units and key contracts like Akash, LRSAM, and Shakti drive forward pipeline.
• Valuation Stretch: Trading at ~45x FY25E P/E vs 3-yr average of 32x; pricing reflects peak sentiment and leaves little room for error.

• Trades below Cash and liquidation value and has a profitable operating business
• Operations have been consistently profitable and free cash flow generating
• Industry is not growing but getting consolidated. Market is pricing in a business to become zero

• KDDL’s precision engineering division, Eigen, is expanding its manufacturing capacity with a new facility and further upgrades planned, aiming to capture high-growth sectors like aerospace, automotive, and medical devices.
• This expansion enhances KDDL’s competitive edge in precision engineering, a high-margin segment, and aligns with the company’s goal of making Eigen a significant revenue contributor, targeting 40-50% of manufacturing revenue.
• The focus on precision engineering and premium retail through Ethos positions KDDL for sustained growth, balancing stable manufacturing revenue with high-margin luxury retail.

• Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.
• The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.
• We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers. 

• Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)  reported 4Q and Full-year FY03/2025 results on Friday which fell below consensus estimates. However, earnings were in line with the company’s guidance.
• Labour markets have begun to cool off with concerns over potential impact of trade wars and economic uncertainty, and the company expects top line to decline in FY03/2026E.
• Though the company’s monetisation efforts have paid off, we expect Recruit’s earnings to remain under pressure and think there’s opportunity to gain on the Short side.

• In a surprising turn of events, the management of Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) has cancelled earnings call for Q4FY25 citing Indo-Pak conflict after posting bad quarterly numbers.
• Receivable cycle has further elongated to all time high since the company became public.
• Revenue growth yet remains muted post company became public in 2022.

• Green Dot Corporation’s latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 illustrate both positive momentum and areas requiring focus.
• The company reported an impressive 24% increase in adjusted revenue and a 53% rise in adjusted EBITDA, outperforming internal expectations.
• Growth was observed across all three operating segments, indicating a cohesive and forward-moving strategy.

• “In the next 50 years… we won’t give a thought to selling those [Japanese trading companies]…. Japan’s record has been extraordinary.” (Warren Buffett)
• In this insight, we provide detailed comparisons of the five major Japanese trading companies and five major Korean holdcos/trading companies. 
• Japanese trading companies have higher points for market cap, ROE, DPS increase, and shares cancellation. Korean holdcos have higher points for dividend yield, deb/equity ratio, ROIC, and valuations. 

• Apple reported strong financial results for Q2 of the fiscal year 2025, achieving revenue of $95.4 billion, which represents a 5% increase compared to the previous year.
• This growth was at the high end of the company’s guidance range, and the diluted earnings per share stood at $1.65, marking an 8% year-over-year increase and setting a record for the March quarter.
• The company’s Services segment achieved an all-time revenue high, with a 12% growth year-on-year, indicating robust performance across Apple’s diverse service offerings.

• Taiwan’s Giant Manufacturing (9921 TT — US$1.7 billion) is the world’s largest bicycle manufacturer.

• It’s based in the Taiwanese city of Taichung, which has become somewhat of the center of the global bicycle industry.

• From there, it controls nine factories around the world, selling about 6 million bicycles a year via many thousands of distributors in 50 countries. 

• 5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&A and low-cost execution.
• Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.
• Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x

• TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs
• ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long
• CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR

• MediaTek and Nvidia expected to unveil joint ARM-based AI PC SoCs at Computex May 19 – 23; a major milestone for Mediatek expanding into the massive Windows PC market.
• We will be looking to see how the new chips are positioned; To highlight full local LLM inference; enabling private, real-time AI at the edge for PCs?
• We maintain our Structural Long view for Mediatek shares; MediaTek is evolving from mobile SoC leader to full-stack AI compute player across smartphones, PCs, and data centers.

• Intel Down But Not Out — Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
• AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate — Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
• Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected

• Onshore Chinese investors’ purchases of HK equity through the Southbound Connect accelerated rapidly after China’s September stimulus. Despite net selling in early May, the onshore bullishness seems sustainable for now.
• Onshore investors prefer internet platforms (Tencent, Alibaba), technology and consumer discretionaries (Xiaomi, SMIC, China Mobile), and lately EVs (Li Auto, XPeng). High dividend SOE banks were bought earlier, not recently.
• Our “China Twelve” stocks and focus themes closely align with onshore investors’ preferences. 6 out of 12 figure in the “top bought” Southbound list – reaffirming our bullishness on them.

• The privatization failed due to the inability to balance the interests of public shareholders. There is a gap between the current Offer and the expectations of small and medium-sized investors.
• Some shareholders may think Goldlion still has the potential for strategic adjustments/value reassessment, and are inclined to continue holding this stock. A cash reserve of HK$1.05 has given imagination space.
• We are not sure what strategies Goldlion will adopt to address the current negative situation. The outlook is vague. 9-14x P/E could be reasonable valuation due to the short-term headwinds.

• Tam Jai International (2217 HK)‘s net profit dropped 32.7% in FY25, but the 2H earnings have seen a recovery to an 18.2% YoY growth, vs. -55.8% in 1H. 
• Net cash stayed intact at HK$1.33bn, or 65.1% of its market capitalisation. Management looks cautiously optimistic in the outlook, and will push for expansion of two Japanese brands.
• There has been minimal further noise from the minority shareholders. With the privatisation PER at over 60% premium to the sector average, we think most shareholders will give in.

• TransMedics Group stock surged ~20% on blowout 1Q’25 earnings on Friday after the company beat earnings expectations and hiked 2025 revenue guidance.
• I launched coverage of the stock in November 2024 and added TransMedics Group to my high conviction list of ideas.
• TransMedics Group shares have massively outperformed in 2025 with shares up ~79% over the year. I acknowledge limited upside and lower my PT to $118 on peer-group multiple compression.

• Positioned for Long-Term Growth: Backed by strong industry tailwinds in EVs, clean energy, and exports, Sundram Fasteners (SF IN) is strategically expanding beyond its core auto portfolio into high-potential sectors.
• Near-Term Risk-Reward Balanced: With the stock trading at 33x P/E on FY26E earnings, valuations appear stretched, and near-term headwinds from tariff uncertainties may limit upside.
• Proven Management & Governance: Backed by the reputable TVS Group, the company’s disciplined execution and transparent governance inspire long-term investor confidence.

• Domestic Tractor Volume Underperformance: Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)‘s domestic tractor volume growth lagged the industry in Q4 FY25, impacted by an adverse geographical mix & increased competitive intensity.
• Construction Equipment Faces Near-Term Pressure:The CE segment saw a 12.2% YoY volume decline, impacted by weak demand and cost inflation from BS-V emission norms; management expects recovery in H2 FY26.
• Valuation Remains Elevated: Despite a stable operating profile and long-term growth potential, the stock trades at a forward P/E of ~30x, limiting near-term upside amid execution and demand uncertainties.

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s 2nm process is said to be comparable to Intel Corp (INTC US)’s 18A technology.
• It is reported that Intel has placed orders for TSMC’s 2nm capacity, as we previously highlighted, due to its timely availability.
• Nonetheless, Intel continues to invest in its own manufacturing roadmap, targeting risk production of the 14A node around 2027.

• A core investment thesis of Shinyoung Wacoal is that its market cap is 94 billion won but its real estate properties in Seoul/Daejeon account for more than 500 billion won. 
• Shinyoung Wacoal’s net cash as a percentage of market cap is 99%. If the real estate is revalued to market values, it would be trading at P/B of only 0.1x.
• Shin Young Wacoal (005800 KS) is one of the largest companies in Korea that specializes in women’s underwear.

• The Company posted strong Q1 2205 results with adjusted EPS (incl. share-based comp) growing 9.3% YOY, adjusted operating margin expanding 70 bps YOY.  Excl. share-based comp, adj. EPS was $2.82.
• The Company expects margin expansion and double digit adjusted EPS growth for FY 2025.
• Sale of Issuer Solutions segment and acqusition of Worldpay will simplify operations and enhance growth. GPN trades at a significant discount to the peer group average.

• Spotify reported its first-quarter 2025 results with decent metrics, yet the numbers failed to satisfy market expectations, leading to a sharp drop in its stock price.
• Despite posting a 12% year-over-year increase in premium subscribers to 268 million—exceeding analyst estimates of 265 million—Spotify shares fell 8.7% in early trading to $545.77.
• The company also registered 678 million monthly active users, up 10%, broadly meeting expectations.

• Trump announced actions to reduce regulatory barriers to domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing, with the core intention to open regulatory “green light” for manufacturing in US, which will change the industry pattern.
• With the promotion of VBP and the implementation of medical insurance price comparison system, there’s a trend of accelerated pharmacies closures. The entire pharmacy industry will face performance headwinds.
• BeiGene’s BRUKINSA recorded negative QoQ growth in 25Q1, which seems below expectations. However, this is temporary headwinds, since the 2025 full-year revenue guidance remains unchanged. Bottom-line valuation  is US$24.5-26.5 billion.

• YETI Holdings reported its first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, revealing mixed results.
• During this period, the company focused on three main areas: accelerating product innovation, transforming supply chain logistics to minimize exposure to China, and enforcing operational discipline to maintain a strong financial position.
• Despite a generally positive performance in some aspects, notable challenges were encountered, impacting the company’s financial outlook for the year.

• Nihon Denkei’s FY03/25 consolidated sales grew 11.7% YoY, with a gross profit of JPY16.9bn and operating profit up 6.9% YoY.
• The company announced FY03/26 earnings forecast with sales at JPY124.0bn, operating profit at JPY4.5bn, and EPS of JPY263.21.
• INNOVATION2030 Ver.2.0 aims for growth by expanding into growth markets and enhancing global business amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

• In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP.
• This comes amid a backdrop of declining oil prices, which have recently hit a four-year low due to increased OPEC+ production and global demand uncertainties.
• Shell, with a market capitalization of approximately £149 billion, is nearly twice the size of BP, whose shares have fallen nearly 30% over the past year, reflecting investor concerns over its strategic direction and financial health.

• Pfizer recently reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, providing an overall positive snapshot of its performance within a challenging market environment.
• Revenue was reported at $13.7 billion, marking a 6% operational decline largely driven by lower Paxlovid sales, partly reflecting a one-time Paxlovid revenue credit from the prior year.
• Despite this, some of its core products such as the Vyndaqel family, Nurtec, and Padcev demonstrated strong growth, reinforcing the company’s focus on prioritizing key growth drivers.

• Altria Group reported its first-quarter performance for 2025 amidst varying market dynamics.
• The company, known primarily for its tobacco products, emphasized robust operations in its Smokeable Products and Oral Tobacco Products segments.
• Altria CEO Billy Gifford highlighted that the core traditional tobacco business remained profitable in a challenging environment, and the company’s flagship brand, Marlboro, continued to show resilience despite economic pressures.

• Auto ICs over 50% of revenue and maintaining market share leading position, but 2Q25 guidance reflects China auto industry caution as China stimulus repeat impact fades and inventory stays lean.
• Himax advances in co-packaged optics (CPO) shipping samples; to supply TSMC and NVIDIA; Separately, Himax’s AR display tech may align with META’s needs.
• Strong auto positioning with 200+ Tcon design wins and CPO opportunity in AI/HPC supply chain reinforce long-term upside, despite soft near-term visibility. Maintain our Structural Long view on Himax.

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (9 to 23 May 2025).
• Our top 10 picks in the past two weeks were up on average 5.0% (from 25 April to 9 May), outperforming KOSPI which was up 1.2% in the same period.
• Our top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include HD Hyundai, Hyundai Elevator, KT Corp, Shinsegae, Coway, Hanwha Aerospace, F&F Co, SM Entertainment, and SK Inc. 

• 1H25 strong revenue growth continues as capacity increase, “production shifting back domestically”, but weakening ASP and clearly demand pull-in in 1H due to US tariffs and China domestic consumer subsidies.
• “2H not clear, especially after late 3Q”. Management mentions the usual macro / US tariffs unknowns. 2025 Capex similar to 2024 (US$7.7bn, 80% revenue), D&A increasing, ASP down, margins muted.
• The stock is as expensive as always. 49x 2025 EPS, 41x 2026. Consensus is not expecting a negative tariffs shock or weaker China domestic demand.

Wheaton announced record revenue, earnings and operational cash flows in Q125, posting adjusted net EPS that was 10.5% better than our forecast and at the top of the range of analysts’ expectations. The main reason for the outperformance was an 18,616oz (20.1%) oversale of gold relative to production, which drove a US$40.1m positive variance in revenue, partially offset by an US$8.6m negative variance in costs, US$3.6m lower-than-expected interest income and US$2.3m higher tax to result in a US$23.9m positive variance in earnings. As a result, we have upgraded our FY25 adjusted net EPS forecast by 7.5c per share (3.4%). Note that, at current metals prices, our FY26 EPS estimate rises by 73.0% to US$2.63/share.

• Revelation Biosciences is a life sciences company whose development of immunologic-based therapies is based on the well-established biology of phosphorylated hexaacyl disaccharide (PHAD) and its effect on the innate immune system.
• The company announced its 1Q2025 financial results after recently revealing that it is targeting a new target indication with its Gemini treatment, the prevention of infection in burn patients.

• Operating loss in 1Q25 will persist in 2Q25 – I expect throughout 2025. Hua Hong rapid capacity increase is supposedly sold out but D&A is increasing much faster than revenue. 
• Consensus is not expecting an end-demand slowdown resulting from US import tariffs, or sluggish China domestic consumption. Consensus expects Hua Hong to sell its capacity increase fully. 
• Given losses in 1H25, Consensus EPS forecast is too high for 2025, probably for 2026 as well. Stock is expensive at 43x 2025 EPS, EPS forecasts looks too high.

• Unusual Machines (NYSE American: UMAC) reported another record quarter with revenue of approximately $2.04 million and a gross margin of 24% with some impact from tariffs, which the company expects to be short lived.
• This growth was achieved even though US government purchases have paused recently. Margins took a slight hit from the tariffs.
• The company raised $40 million at $5.00 a share to bolster its balance sheet (customers and suppliers need to see the ability to work large orders), and to build out its Orlando motor manufacturing facility.

BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust’s (BRLA’s) lead co-manager Sam Vecht reiterates his enthusiasm for a region that is out of favour with other investors. He recognises that returns in Latin America can be volatile, so takes a longer-term view, seeking companies with the potential for stable growth that are trading on reasonable valuations. The manager has developed an in-depth knowledge of the region because of his frequent visits, which include travel to the smaller countries as well as to Brazil and Mexico, the economies of which dominate Latin America. Vecht believes that meeting a wide network, including corporate executives, government officials and community members, allows him to uncover interesting opportunities that may be overlooked by other investors.

• Soluna just published its monthly update, which includes signing of term sheets for two new wind- powered data centers (Project Hedy for 120MW and Project Ellen for 100 MW), securing land for 166MW of Project Kati, and a new partnership with Blockware for hosting capacity at Project Dorothy 2.
• For April Soluna’s hosted hashrate was a record 1,727 PH/s, and it mined 10 Bitcoins
• Project Dorothy 1A/1B: Dorothy 1A (25 MW hosting) is fully deployed, and Dorothy 1B (25 MW prop-mining) has achieved strong hashrate growth and met Q1 2025 ancillary service requirements.

• Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) is acquiring Torii Pharmaceutical, as well as the pharmaceutical business of Japan Tobacco and U.S. group company Akros Pharma (sub-subsidiary of Japan Tobacco) for ~¥160B.
• With minimum overlap in focus areas, Shionogi believes that the transaction will create a leading company that delivers innovative pharmaceuticals. However, R&D expenses of the combined company will remain elevated.
• Considering the promising pipeline, we are hopeful on the long-term growth prospect of the combined company. Shionogi is scheduled to announce FY25 result on May 12.

• Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)‘s 1Q25 results were in line, while the 2Q25 guidance appears somewhat cautious.  
• The Americas continued to contribute a low-teens percentage to revenue, accounting for 12.6%, while China and Eurasia made up the remaining majority.  
• Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)’s top priority remains its strategic focus on core business and near-term execution.

• We interact with local business owners and our channels in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir with an objective to understand the current sentiment on the ground. 
• Srinagar, Kashmir’s summer capital, remains strategically vital in the current conflict as a military hub and political flashpoint between India and Pakistan.
• Local business owners are hopeful that the escalating conflict and the media attention surrounding it will ease by the 10th of May.

• HK inno.N (195940 KS) announced positive topline result from the U.S. Phase 3 trial evaluating K-CAB in gastroesophageal reflux disease. U.S. filing is expected in 4Q25.
• HK inno.N has reported strong 1Q25 result, with double-digit growth across all key parameters. Revenue increased 16% YoY, while operating profit grew at a faster pace of 47% YoY.
• The U.S. filing and approval are the major catalysts. However, HK inno has other growth engines as well. Innovative pipeline is also progressing, ensuring long-term growth prospect.

• EBITDA loss of $174M, net loss of $483M, driven by weak auto demand, high costs, and continuing drag from AMNS slab contract; EBITDA/ton fell sharply to –$42.
• Idling six facilities, exiting loss-making operations, $300M cost savings targeted in H2; slab contract expiry to add ~$500M EBITDA annually from 2026.
• Deep value: Trading at 4.4x EV/EBITDA (2026E), 7.1x P/E, 0.55x P/B, and $653 EV/ton of full steelmaking capacity, reflecting deep cyclical pessimism.

• F&F is one of the key beneficiaries of the exploding popularity of Jung Hoo Lee in the MLB (Major League Baseball) in the United States.
• The surging popularity of Jung Hoo Lee could lead to higher demand for F&F’s core products (MLB baseball caps and apparel products), which could lead to higher sales and profits.
• F&F recently provided new shareholder return plans including providing at least 25% of net profit as dividends/buybacks/cancellations (including buyback at least 60 billion won from 2025 to 2027).

• Panache DigiLife Limited is an ICT & IoT devices design, manufacturing, distribution and services company.  
• Company’s accounting policy for non-provisioning of old receivables seems to be aggressive. Poor capital allocation resulted in fragile financial health. 
• Concentration risk with sales from single customer accounting for 55% of revenue to be major areas of concern.

• Occidental’s Q1 2025 revenue rose by 13.9% YoY but missed estimates by 0.3%. Its net income rose by 6.7% YoY, and its EPS beat estimates by 12.1%.
• Occidental’s earnings beat was fueled by robust oil and gas segment growth, underpinned by stronger price realisations that offset volume softness and reinforced its upstream momentum.
• Occidental closed USD 1.3 billion in asset sales in Q1 and repaid USD 2.3 billion in debt YTD, underscoring its continued focus on debt reduction.

• BoJ’s lower GDP growth forecasts add weight to the rate hike deferral; we focus on big-cap banks that have more in the tank than high gearing to rising benchmark rates
• An increasingly important factor, in our view, is the share of strategic equity holdings relative to market capitalization; Kyoto is top on this metric, followed by Shizuoka, Resona and Mizuho
• With the lack of the rate hike catalyst in the near term, we remove SMFG from the buy list and would look to lighten holdings selectively in other Japanese banks

• Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)

• Revenue decreased by 1.8% YoY to JPY143.2bn, with IT business revenue up 13.6% and Food business down 43.9%.
• Operating profit increased by 242.7% YoY to JPY8.9bn, driven by IT segment’s OPM rise and cost ratio decline.
• Dividend per share for FY03/25 remained JPY120, with a total payout ratio of 117.7% including treasury stock repurchase.

• AMD yesterday reported Q1 2025 revenues of $7.4 billion, up 36% YoY, down 3% QoQ and $300 million above the guided midpoint. Non-GAAP Gross margin was 50%, precisely as guided
• AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $7.4 billion, flat sequentially, together with gross margin of 43% incorporating the impact of an $800 million charge related to the latest China restrictions
• Enterprise server momentum, both cloud and on premise, is a major tailwind for AMD in 2025, far more so than any traction from its Instinct Accelerators. That comes in 2026.

• As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding ways to cash in on that “insight”, the caveat being you have to be right about the trend of course.
• Fad cycles may or may not have legs – see Funko in US and PopMart in HK.
• Not too long ago, I noticed PopMart replacing a local major bank outlet in a central shopping mall near to where I live and heedlessly dismissing it with a mere “wth is this?”, to my chagrin of course as the stock has gone parabolic ever since.

• LIFENET is a pure-play online life insurance company with a solid track record, revamping its strategy to revitalize growth.
• The company has initiated a three-pronged strategy, encompassing tech & services, rebranding, and an ‘embedded’ strategy to integrate life insurance products seamlessly into partner digital ecosystems with engaged customers.
• Key partnerships with KDDI Group (9433) and SMBC Group provide a competitive advantage, and the group credit life insurance offered to mortgage customers of au Jibun Bank, KDDI Group’s online banking subsidiary, has the hallmarks of a new earnings pillar. 

• Occidental’s Q1 revenue and EPS are projected to rise 14.4% and 23.8% YoY, driven by strong Permian production and improved oil and gas price realisations.
• Occidental’s average realised global oil price rose 1.9% QoQ, while NGL and natural gas prices surged 19% and 63.1%, respectively.
• Occidental’s average index prices for WTI and Brent rose 1.6% and 1.2% QoQ, respectively, while natural gas prices saw a sharp 36.1% increase.

• American Airlines Group recently reported its first quarter 2025 financial results amid challenging economic conditions which affected the overall industry demand.
• Throughout the conference call, management conveyed both challenges faced and strategic initiatives undertaken to navigate the difficult environment.
• The company reported a first-quarter GAAP net loss of $473 million, or an adjusted loss of $386 million excluding special items, marking a noteworthy setback.

• Revenue increased 33.6% YoY to JPY5.2bn, with HENNGE One business revenue at JPY4.9bn (+35.2% YoY).
• Operating profit rose 72.6% YoY to JPY1.1bn, with a margin of 21.5% (+4.9pp YoY).
• Gross profit was JPY4.5bn (+36.8% YoY), and SG&A expenses increased to JPY3.4bn (+28.0% YoY).

• Colgate-Palmolive’s latest earnings reveals a mixed performance for the first quarter of 2025, underscoring both opportunities and challenges that the company faces in its strategic operations.
• The company’s management approached the volatile economic environment with a sense of preparedness, though consumer behavior and global economic pressures have presented some difficulties.
• One of the significant challenges highlighted is the impact of a weaker consumer market, particularly evident in volume growth struggles.

• 2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.
• 100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the  TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.
• 2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.

• FTI Consulting delivered a mixed set of results for the first quarter of 2025 with both positive highlights and some areas of concern.
• The company’s revenues stood at $898.3 million, representing a 3.3% decrease compared to the same quarter last year.
• On a sequential basis compared to the previous quarter, revenues saw a marginal increase.

• Cadence Design Systems, Inc. presented a robust performance in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing guidance across all major financial metrics.
• The company’s revenue grew by 23% year-over-year, with a notable 34% increase in non-GAAP EPS, prompting an upward revision of the annual financial forecast.
• This performance was primarily driven by sustained demand for Cadence’s innovative technologies and solutions.

• Last year in August, Nihon Parkerizing (4095 JP) announced a large buyback – up to 12.0mm shares (9.6%) spending up to ¥15.0bn over the next 11.5mos.
• So far, they have spent ¥9.1bn buying back 7.3mm shares. That’s ¥5.9 left to spend in 3mos.
• It’s worth a look to see how this has evolved and how it might evolve into the end of the buyback. And it’s cheap, though tariff uncertainty exists.

• The recent spike in Asian currencies is driving foreign institutional flows into Asian equities. Currency appreciation is usually a lead indicator of FII flows, implying that this enthusiasm may continue. 
• The markets that were sold down the most are attracting the most flows and could continue to do so. India, Taiwan and to a lesser extent, Korea qualify.
• Domestic sectors like Chinese internet, restaurant chains, athleisure; Indian private banks, consumer discretionary, hospital chains could gain. So could defensives with high dividend yields, e.g. Korea and Chinese utilities, telecom.

• The Trump administration proposed a new 100% tariffs at movies produced outside the United States. Korean contents account for about 8-9% of total viewing hours on Netflix globally.
• Top three listed film/drama production companies in Korea including Studio Dragon, CJ ENM, and ContentreeJoongAng are likely to be negatively impacted by the new major tariffs imposed by the U.S.
• Economics of making a movie is much cheaper in South Korea versus the U.S. Producing a film in South Korea can cost 30–70% less than in the United States.

• TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node is Experiencing Unprecedented Customer Demand
• Showdown Heats Up Between Qualcomm & Mediatek’s Next Generation of Mobile Phone SoCs — And All Roads Lead to TSMC’s Process Technology
• Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

• Adani Power delivered strong FY25 earnings and plans to expand capacity to 30.7 GW by FY30 through brownfield, greenfield, and acquisition-driven growth.
• Godda, Jharkhand (110km from Bangladesh) project supports high realisations, but Bangladesh receivable buildup (~USD 900 million) remains a working capital risk, with gradual collections ongoing.
• Adani Power offers strong margins, improving ROCE, and trades at ~16.6× FY25 P/E.

• K-Beauty ODM segment appears positioned both to ride the secular growth of Korean skincare in the U.S. and to tide over tariff turbulence given their US based manufacturing facilities.
• By contrast to OEM/ODM players, major legacy consumer beauty brands like AmorePacific, LG Household & Health Care have been slower to localise production leaving them exposed to reciprocal tariffs.
• With American cosmetic imports from Korea hitting all-time highs, Korean ODMs with local facilities could see demand growth and profit recovery as clients onshore production to avoid tariffs.

• 2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments are expected to grow +3~5% QoQ, ASP is expected to increase +0~2% QoQ and Gross margin is projected at 27~29%.
• 2Q25 by platform: PMIC to see significant growth; discrete to grow in low single digits; DDIC to remain flat.
• The 2024 annual dividend policy is maintained at NT$4.5 per share.

• TAL Education Group’s latest quarter and fiscal year performance presents a mixed picture, with notable expansions alongside challenges in profitability.
• Key areas such as Learning Services and Content Solutions have shown significant revenue growth, demonstrating the company’s efforts to broaden its educational offerings.
• In fiscal 2025, TAL Education Group recorded a considerable increase in net revenues, reaching USD 2.3 billion, a 51% rise from the previous year.

• Good 1Q25, revenue +36% YoY, EPS +55%. Complicated 2-3Q ahead due to US export restrictions cutting down revenue by 1.5bn. This is a one-off. Ignoring this, underlying growth looks strong.   
• AMD is gaining share in PC and Server, incl enterprise. GPU offering is still behind Nvidia but improving with MI350 in mid-25, MI400 mid-26. MI400 should be on-par with NVDA.
• The stock is down -45% from Jan-24. Trading on low multiples versus historicals: 17x 2026 EPS or more than -1 stdev below avg. Buy!

• Nuvoco reported improved volumes, margins, and deleveraging in FY25, with continued focus on cost optimization and operational efficiency.
• The Vadraj Cement acquisition expands capacity to 31 MTPA, diversifying regional exposure and strengthening presence in Gujarat and Maharashtra – west region.
• Valuations are reasonable at ~16x FY27E earnings and ~Rs5,100/ton EV/ton, but upside depends on timely integration and ramp-up of new assets.

• In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) (go long) and Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) (go short).
• Hanwha Ocean faces bigger overhang risk of KDB continuing to sell additional shares of the company as compared to Hanwha Aerospace’s rights offering shares dilution risk. 
• Hanwha Aerospace/Hanwha Ocean price ratio (5 year period) is near the 2 standard deviation (STD) mark which could suggest a reversion to the mean.

• TSMC: +15% Premium; Trading Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
• UMC: -1.8% Discount; Also Near a Level to Go Long the Spread
• CHT: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread

• Gravita reported steady FY25 results with ~10% EBITDA margins, strong cash generation, and maintained a net cash position despite ongoing capex.
• Business mix is evolving with increasing aluminium recycling, higher Africa contribution, and new verticals like lithium-ion, aiming to double capacity by FY27.
• Valuations appear elevated but are supported by strong ROIC, clear growth visibility, and alignment with global ESG trends.

• Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) will benefit from Ant Financial’s technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.
• With Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years. 
• We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.  

• Last week Temu confirmed dramatic changes to its business model in the US
• Temu won’t sell Chinese goods directly to US consumers, & will rely on local fulfillment
• The moves seem to put Temu into direct competition with Amazon, Walmart.com

• Strong Core Performance:Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) delivered robust growth in Auto &Farm segments in Q4FY25,with SUV volumes up 20% &tractor volumes up 12%,alongside market share gains in both segments.
• Strategic Expansion & Capital Allocation: The company outlined a clear roadmap for scaling EV and ICE capacities to 85K/month by FY27.
• Valuation Upside from Growth Platforms:With scalable and emerging “growth gems” across real estate, hospitality,renewables, and EVs, M&M’s Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation pegs fair value at INR 3,437/share, including the EV business.

• Q1 showed resilient performance; Q2 EBITDA to rise on European spread recovery, healthy orders, and stable North America.
• Over 60% of future capex targets India; Hazira and Visakhapatnam expansions drive sharp volume and margin growth.
• Stock trades at deep 60–70% discount to Indian steelmakers despite growing India focus and structurally stronger EBITDA.

• In April 2025, S-REITs recorded a total net institutional selling of S$90.3 million and retail selling of S$54.6 million.
• ParkwayLife REIT, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, and Frasers Hospitality Trust were the top three year-to-date gainers in 2025.
• Stoneweg European REIT obtained unitholders’ approval for stapling to form Stoneweg European Stapled Trust, enhancing tax efficiency and investment scope.

• As HIT continues to expand services and enhance its platform, the company aims to broaden its target market, as it believes that organizations of all sizes can benefit from its AI-driven technology platform, which is designed to streamline and facilitate the process of researching and obtaining healthcare insurance.
• HIT began development of a large-group third-party AI-powered underwriting solutions for mid-sized and larger businesses and, in 1Q25, delivered solutions to large employers, including one that employs 1k+ people.

• Share prices are gradually stabilizing, influenced by news reports suggesting that Trump may eventually reduce tariffs on China (although trust overhang with Trump statements remains an issue).
• Besides Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK), most companies have halted capital allocation decisions like buybacks till more clarity emerges.
• Stella International (1836 HK)  has the highest US revenue exposure at 47%, followed by Crystal International (2232 HK) at 38%, and Lever Style (1346 HK)  at 58%.

• Strong FY25 growth, but bulk cargo (~90%) dominates, keeping revenue per ton lower versus peers.
• Targeting 10% volume and 50% logistics growth by FY27, with heavy CAPEX and Navkar integration focus.
• Trades at ~28x EV/EBITDA, ~40x P/E — far higher than Adani Ports; promoter dilution likely to meet public float norms.

• We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
• The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.
• Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 

• SIMO beat 1Q25 EPS estimates by 20%, with strong gross margins (47.1%) driven by PCIe Gen 5 SSD controller mix and tight cost control.
• SIMO’s MonTitan confirmed as boot SSD supplier for NVIDIA’s BlueField-3 DPU, marking SIMO’s formal entry into NVIDIA-linked enterprise AI storage.
• Management maintains $1bn revenue run-rate target for 4Q25, supported by PCIe 5, UFS 4.1, and MonTitan ramps. We maintain our Structural Long rating.

• The HKD hit its upper limit of 7.75/USD. Capital inflows are expected post–Labor Day, likely boosting Hong Kong stock prices.
• Mindray faces headwinds. A turnaround may come in 25Q3–Q4, but the market seeks a new growth story. A 20–25x TTM P/E reflects fair value, not undervaluation.
• Akeso’s high valuation leans on HARMONi-3 and HARMONi 7 over HARMONi-2. Final OS data raises concerns, as MRCT is challenging and the safety margin is lower than expected.

• SF Hldg had slowest Q125 revenue growth among China-listed express companies, STO fastest
• Only these two express firms reported margin expansion in Q125 — how’d they do it?
• Q125 results suggest two very different paths toward improved express profitability

• Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
• The company has announced it has signed a five-year, exclusive supply agreement with US-based metal additive manufacturing technology company Velo3D (OTC:VLDX) for mission-critical parts in the defence, space and aviation industries (ASX release 29 April).
• Amaero said, based on demand estimates from Velo3D, revenue from C103 and titanium alloy powder sales over the five-year agreement are expected to equal approximately US$22m (A$35m).

• Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
• ART has reported its Q3 FY25 trading update with key RaaS KPIs all heading in the right direction.
• Another quarter of positive cash flow was achieved, resulting in a stable net cash position of $18.3m.