Equity Bottom-Up Archives | Page 9 of 222 | Smartkarma

• Equity-Funded Bitcoin accumulation stalls, as Metaplanet’s share price and mNAV collapse, closing the window for reflexive BTC yield growth
• BIG trading desk delivers outsized returns, but sustainability remains uncertain amid falling Bitcoin volatility and rising funding obligations.
• Phase II pivots toward platform ambitions, signalling a shift from accumulation to architecture, and potentially, from treasury to Bitcoin bank.

• Rocket Lab has taken a significant strategic step toward becoming a fully vertically integrated space company with its intent to acquire a controlling stake in Mynaric AG, a German-based laser communications provider.
• The deal, still subject to regulatory and restructuring approvals, comes on the heels of Rocket Lab’s Q2 2025 earnings, where the company reported $39.6 million in revenue and reiterated its commitment to expanding across the entire space value chain.
• If completed, the acquisition will give Rocket Lab access to Mynaric’s production capabilities, intellectual property, and workforce of over 300 engineers.

• Macbee Planet is a high-growth marketing technology company specializing in data-driven LTV (Lifetime Value) marketing, a niche that offers significant upside within Japan’s large internet advertising market.
• The company has demonstrated an exceptional track record of revenue and net income growth, driven by its performance-based consulting and proprietary technology platforms. However, this growth has been accompanied by significant cash flow volatility and recent margin compression.
• Key risks include a high dependency on a few key industries, particularly finance and wellness, increasing competition, and the challenge of maintaining profitability while scaling. The recent negative operating cash flow is a primary concern for investors.

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• Northwest Biotherapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company whose value is almost entirely dependent on the regulatory approval and commercial success of its lead product candidate, DCVax-L, for glioblastoma (GBM), an aggressive form of brain cancer.
• The company has completed a Phase III trial for DCVax-L, which it reported met its primary and secondary endpoints for extending survival in both newly diagnosed and recurrent GBM patients. A Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) was submitted to the UK’s MHRA in December 2023, making the regulatory decision a critical near-term catalyst.
• Financially, the company is in a precarious position, characterized by a history of significant net losses, consistent cash burn, and a reliance on dilutive financing to fund operations. Future capital raises are a near certainty, posing a significant risk to current shareholders.

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• USG 1:1 domestic / import ratio for semi manufacturing not a clear positive for Intel. Intel needs a 14A node very quickly. But it’s positive to TSMC, increase pricing power.
• The 1:1 rule is potentially positive for Intel and Samsung but only if they fix yield problems and offer complete design and IP tools to their customers. Long road ahead.
• TSMC could increase US Capex and lower Taiwan Capex. But TSMC plans to make 30% of its advanced chips in the US from 2027. Capex increase would be mild.

• Context: The Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU) vs. Ampol (ALD AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Woodside Energy (WDS AU) and short Ampol (ALD AU) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2025.
• This was a STRONG REVERSAL of the relative share price performances of these 38 pairs in 3Q 2025 versus in 2Q 2025.
• We provide four holdco/opco pairs that have experienced noticeable divergence in the past three months and we expect closing of their gaps could occur in the next several weeks

• Occidental Petroleum Corporation is on the verge of its largest-ever divestment: the sale of its OxyChem petrochemical unit, in a deal that could fetch at least $10 billion.
• According to recent reports, the company is deep in discussions, though no buyer has been named yet.
• If finalized, this move will mark a pivotal shift in Occidental’s corporate structure—transforming the Houston-based energy giant’s strategic outlook and positioning it as one of the leanest and most carbon-focused companies in the sector.

• Context: The ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) vs. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: The combination of going long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) and short HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has traded profitably in July and is now flagged again as a fresh opportunity.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility
• But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months
• USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument

• Blink Charging is navigating a high-growth phase, marked by significant revenue increases over the past several years, driven by both organic expansion and strategic acquisitions. However, this growth has been accompanied by substantial and persistent net losses and negative cash flow, raising concerns about its path to profitability.
• The company operates with a flexible business model, offering equipment sales (host-owned), a turnkey owner-operator model, and hybrid variations. There is a strategic shift towards the owner-operator model to build a recurring revenue base from charging services, which command higher margins than hardware sales.
• The Electric Vehicle (EV) charging industry is intensely competitive and capital-intensive. Blink faces significant competition from larger, better-capitalized players. The company’s success is heavily reliant on the continued growth of EV adoption, favorable government policies and subsidies, and its ability to manage high operational costs and secure ongoing funding.

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• Zijin Mining Group is a leading global mining company with a significant presence in gold, copper, and zinc production. The company is strategically focused on expanding its international footprint through acquisitions and organic growth, particularly in gold and copper.
• The company is capitalizing on high commodity prices, especially for gold, to fuel its growth and is undertaking a significant corporate action by spinning off its international gold assets into a separately listed entity, Zijin Gold, in Hong Kong to attract global investors.
• While demonstrating strong financial performance and production growth, the company faces challenges related to geopolitical risks, resource nationalism, and the inherent volatility of commodity markets. A key focus for the future is balancing its aggressive expansion with sustainable and responsible mining practices.

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• In Q1FY26, Edelweiss reported 20% YoY PAT growth.  Edelweiss is growing from strength to strength with its businesses scaling up well. Its insurance and asset management businesses are growing rapidly. 
• During Q1FY26, Edelweiss divested 15% stake in its Mutual Fund business, Edelweiss Asset Management, to WestBridge Capital for INR 450cr, valuing the business at INR 3000cr. 
• YoY, Edelweiss has reduced its consolidated net debt by INR 4845cr (down 31% YoY) and corporate debt by INR 2260cr (down 26% YoY). Corporate debt is now at INR 6350cr.

• GB10 Brings Nvidia AI Performance From Data Center to the Desktop
• GB10 PCs Will Be “True” AI PCs, Their Capabilities Will Be More Evident
• From Niche to Market Driver; Maintain Structural Long for Mediatek, Asustek, Acer

• The Pinkfong Company, creator of the global phenomenon ‘Baby Shark’, is poised for a KOSDAQ IPO in Q4 2025, aiming to raise capital for content development and global expansion.
• While the company possesses an immensely powerful and globally recognized IP in ‘Baby Shark’, it faces significant challenges related to revenue concentration and recent declines in sales, which have fallen from a peak in 2022.
• The company’s strong balance sheet, characterized by a net cash position, and its strategic shift towards higher-margin digital content sales are key strengths, but its future success hinges on its ability to replicate its hit-making success and diversify its IP portfolio.

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• US as the world’s largest service economy means artificial general intelligence (AGI) saves cost by replacing knowledge workers. 
• China’s AI monetization is today 1/3 of US but will improve to 1/2 by 2030. 
• We reiterate our TOP PICKS of Alibaba, HESAI, CATL and Kuaishou. BIDU stays as SELL.

• Taste Gourmet is a fast-growing, multi-brand restaurant operator in Hong Kong, demonstrating a remarkable growth trajectory with a 3-year net income CAGR of 53.6%.
• The company is an attractive income play, offering a high dividend yield of approximately 8.6%, supported by robust free cash flow generation.
• Valuation appears compelling at a significant discount to peers, with a potential rerating catalyst from its proposed migration from the GEM to the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

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• Strategic Repositioning Through Spin-Off: KBR is undergoing a significant transformation by spinning off its Mission Technology Solutions (MTS) segment. This strategic move aims to create two distinct, publicly-traded companies, allowing for greater focus, tailored capital allocation, and potentially unlocking significant shareholder value through a valuation re-rating for both the government-focused MTS and the technology-centric Sustainable Technology Solutions (STS) businesses.
• Favorable End-Market Exposure: The company is well-positioned in attractive, high-growth sectors. The STS segment is a key player in the global energy transition and sustainability movement, providing proprietary technologies for clean energy and petrochemicals. The MTS segment benefits from stable, long-term government contracts in defense, space, and national security, areas with consistent and growing budget allocations.
• Solid Financial Performance and Growth Outlook: KBR has demonstrated robust financial health, with consistent revenue growth, margin expansion, and strong cash flow generation. The company has a strong track record of earnings growth and has been consistently increasing its dividend, signaling confidence in its future prospects. Management has reiterated ambitious 2027 financial targets, projecting double-digit revenue CAGR for both of its core segments.

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• Shift to Asset-Light Model: Mandarin Oriental is strategically pivoting to an asset-light model, focusing on lucrative hotel management and branding fees while selectively disposing of owned assets, such as its Paris property. This transition aims to enhance financial flexibility and accelerate growth.
• Aggressive Expansion Pipeline: The Group has a robust growth strategy, aiming to more than double its portfolio over the next decade from its current 41 hotels. The pipeline is geographically diverse, with a strong focus on key capital cities and resort destinations in the Middle East, Japan, North America, and Europe.
• Resilient Post-Pandemic Recovery: The company is demonstrating a solid recovery, with a 13% increase in combined total revenue and a 15% growth in hotel management fees in its latest results, driven by strong RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) increases across all regions. This signals robust demand for luxury travel and the power of the Mandarin Oriental brand.

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• Nippon Life India Asset Management (NAM IN) is a leading asset manager in India, well-positioned to capitalize on the structural growth of the country’s financialization of savings, driven by rising incomes and financial literacy.
• The company has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory, consistently gaining market share in high-margin equity AUM and rapidly growing its Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) book, which provides a stable and recurring revenue stream.
• While the outlook is positive, key risks include intense competition from existing players and new entrants, potential pressure on yields from the growing share of lower-fee passive products, and market volatility impacting AUM growth and investor sentiment.

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• TSMC: +28.3 Premium; Historically Extreme Level, Can Short the ADR Premium
• UMC: +3.3% Premium; Historically Extreme Level, Short the ADR Premium 
• CHT: -0.7% Discount; Near Lower Bound, Consider Going Long the Spread

Key points (machine generated)

• Bloom Energy is trading at approximately $22 per share with a price target of over $50 in one year and over $100 in five years.
• The company produces energy servers that convert natural gas or biogas into electricity with higher efficiency than traditional fossil fuels.
• Projected non-GAAP earnings per share for 2026 are around $2, with a compounded growth rate exceeding 30% and competitive electricity costs of $0.09-0.12 per kWh.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Latest Signals Continue to Indicate N2 Is Emerging as TSMC’s Blockbuster Node
• N2 Commercialization Timing Aligns With Major AI HPC Platform Roadmaps
• TSMC Market Share Over 70%… Could N2 Drive This Number Even Higher? Maintain Our Structural Long Rating for TSMC

Key points (machine generated)

• Didi’s stock price is stable at $4.90, adhering to management guidance for eight months.
• Concerns about autonomous driving in China arise due to low labor costs and a deflationary environment, impacting regulatory responses.
• Didi is well-positioned for partnerships with AV companies, while Tesla faces regulatory challenges in operating a ride-hailing service in China.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Apple, Intel, and Nvidia may be converging on a shared AI infrastructure vision that would have consequences for the global chip supply chain.
• Intel’s systems foundry pivot is about controlling the stack, and Apple might see value in that despite moving away from the former’s products.
• TSMC remains dominant in process tech, but the competition in the future might be about more than building silicon.  

• Dominant Market Leader with Strategic Assets: IPCC is the pioneering and largest operator of specialized vehicle terminals in Indonesia, holding a dominant market share (approximately 80%) in new vehicle handling at its primary location, the Port of Tanjung Priok, which is Indonesia’s busiest port. Its strategic position is reinforced by its status as a subsidiary of the state-owned port authority Pelindo, providing a significant competitive advantage.
• Strong Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns: The company exhibits a robust growth trajectory with a 3-year net income CAGR of 52.31% and consistently high margins. IPCC maintains a strong, debt-free financial position, enabling it to consistently distribute high dividends, as evidenced by a dividend yield exceeding 13% in the latest fiscal year.
• Favorable Industry Tailwinds and Expansion Strategy: IPCC is well-positioned to capitalize on the long-term growth of the Indonesian automotive market, including the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and government initiatives to boost exports. The company is pursuing a clear expansion strategy, focused on integrating its services, expanding its network to other Pelindo-operated ports, and digitalization to create a comprehensive vehicle logistics ecosystem.

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• Verisure is the leading provider of professionally monitored security services in Europe and Latin America, poised for a significant IPO on Nasdaq Stockholm with a potential market capitalization of €12.9–€13.9 billion.
• The company’s business model is built on a highly resilient, subscription-based revenue stream, with approximately 90% of its €3.4 billion in 2024 revenue coming from recurring subscriptions, driving strong, consistent cash flow.
• Significant growth potential exists due to the low penetration of monitored security services in Verisure’s core European markets (around 4%) compared to the U.S. (around 23%), providing a long runway for customer acquisition and expansion.

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• Evergrande is a defunct Chinese property developer that was once the second-largest in China by sales. Its collapse in 2021 triggered a major crisis in the country’s real estate sector.
• The company is currently undergoing liquidation after a Hong Kong court order in January 2024, following its failure to present a viable restructuring plan for its massive debt, which exceeded $300 billion.
• The future for Evergrande‘s stakeholders is highly uncertain, with offshore creditors facing a bleak outlook for recovery. The company’s situation highlights significant corporate governance failures and systemic risks within China’s property market.

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• Netdragon is a prominent player in China’s online gaming and mobile internet sectors, with a growing international presence in the education technology market.
• The company is strategically pivoting towards the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in both its gaming and education segments, aiming to enhance user experience and operational efficiency.
• Despite recent revenue declines and market volatility, Netdragon maintains a strong dividend yield and has an active share buyback program, signaling management’s confidence in its long-term strategy.

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• Punjab National Bank (PNB) is demonstrating a significant financial turnaround, marked by robust growth in net income and revenue over the past three years. This is supported by a strategic focus on improving asset quality and diversifying its lending portfolio.
• As the second-largest public sector bank in India, PNB benefits from extensive government backing and a vast branch network, providing a stable, low-cost deposit base. The bank is leveraging this position to push for digital transformation and expand into high-growth sectors like renewable energy and infrastructure.
• Key challenges remain, including managing historical non-performing assets (NPAs), navigating intense competition from private sector banks and fintech companies, and mitigating cybersecurity risks. Sustained execution of its strategic initiatives will be crucial for long-term value creation.

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• Netdragon Websoft (777 HK) stock has begun to rerate on the back of its deal with with Zhongke Wenge to integrate and launch AI applications outside of China.
• NetDragon will integrate Wenge’s LLM, YaYi, with its education products.  In August 2025, Cherrypicks and Wenge jointly launched AI applications, including social listening and multimodal content creation tools globally.
• NetDragon has consistently enhanced shareholder returns through substantial dividends and since its earnings announcement in August has begun buying back shares in the market.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• IPO catalyst already priced in – Tekscend Photomask IPO (¥300 bn base case) crystallizes hidden value, but with TOPPAN at ~¥3,900, the upside to bull case (~¥4,100) is limited.
• Core execution the swing factor – Information & Communication (~54% sales) and BPO/Digital DX must expand margins (target 10% by FY2030 vs. ~5% today) for further re-rating.
• Balanced risk–reward – Strong balance sheet and shareholder returns (2.5% equity cancelled FY25) support valuation, but high capex and legacy print drag keep FCF and ROE volatile.

• Netdragon is a prominent player in China’s online gaming and mobile internet sectors, with a growing international presence in the education technology market.
• The company is strategically pivoting towards the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in both its gaming and education segments, aiming to enhance user experience and operational efficiency.
• Despite recent revenue declines and market volatility, Netdragon maintains a strong dividend yield and has an active share buyback program, signaling management’s confidence in its long-term strategy.

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• Scarce exposure to EUV photomasks – one of only three global leaders (with Hoya, DNP) in a concentrated oligopoly.
• IPO at ¥250–400 bn (Oct 16, 2025) implies ~12–16× EV/EBITDA, offering rare pure-play access.
• Execution risks – capex intensity turns FCF negative; overhang from Integral (~14% post-IPO) may weigh.

• NAV crystallization from Tekscend IPO – ~¥108 bn cash proceeds plus a ~14% residual stake; base NAV ~¥150–160 bn vs. ¥129 bn market cap (15–20% discount).
• Upside capped without payout shift – modest base case (¥3,900–4,100/share, flat to +7%); bull case (¥4,400, +15–20%) requires high-end IPO pricing and explicit return policy.
• Persistent structural discount – low dividend (~0.9% yield), no buyback track record, and opaque residual portfolio (e.g., Golf Digest) keep holdco discount entrenched.

• We visited two manufacturing plants of Nelcast Ltd (NELC IN) located in the southern part of India. In this insight we present the key takeaways from visit.
• Specifically the Pedapariya plant which was facing low capacity utilization is seeing signs of steep ramp up.  Insights on this are provided in the note.
• With no significant capex coming up, the ramp of capacity could make Nelcast Ltd (NELC IN)a dark horse in terms of investor returns. We highlight our projections in this note.

• Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU) entered into a commercial manufacturing agreement with SpectronRx for 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA. SpectronRx is capable of producing up to 400K patient-ready doses of 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA annually.
• Clarity’s Targeted Copper Theranostic products and clinical development programs will remain unaffected by the U.S. imposed 100% tariff on imports of branded pharmaceutical products.
• In July, Clarity completed A$203M institutional placement, resulting in a pro-forma cash balance of approximately A$288M. This will help fund ongoing clinical trial programs, including the pivotal Phase 3 trials.

• Roborock’s margins are expected to bottom-out after a tough four quarters of strategically prioritizing market share at the cost of margins. 3Q-4Q25 will mark the start of new margin cycle.
• Margins stabilizing at the new normal of 12-14% NPM will mean earnings will track revenue growth going forward. Meanwhile, revenues can surprise on the upside with >25% CAGR in medium-term.
• HK-Listing into 2H25/ 1H26 is a strong catalyst which can bring in fresh money, and improve disclosure standards – a key concern. We expect 70% upside in our bull case.

• Genky Drugstores is one of three hybrid food & drug chains, all of which target the discount end of the market. 
• Unlike rivals, Genky’s blends in-house control of both store and product development, and logistics.
• This level of control and discipline is making Genky a growing threat to competitors in central Japan.

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the next two weeks (26 September to 10 October 2025).
• Top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include S&T Dynamics, Samsung Electronics, KT&G, Samsung Life Insurance, Hana Financial, Hyundai Elevator, SK Inc, Lotte Tour Development, Naver, and Douzone Bizon. 
• There have been some signs of shipbuilding and shipping services related stocks (such as HMM, SK Oceanplant, and HJ Shipbuilding) experiencing some weakness in the past couple of weeks. 

• Federal Signal Corporation has made a strategic move with its definitive agreement to acquire Scranton Manufacturing Company, doing business as New Way Trucks, for an initial consideration of $396 million.
• This deal, announced on September 25, 2025, includes an additional $30 million earmarked for real estate tied to New Way’s manufacturing facilities in Iowa and Mississippi.
• Further, a performance-based earnout of up to $54 million could be paid over the next two years.

• Accenture’s most recent earnings discussion reveals significant insights into their fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025 performance, as well as their strategic outlook for 2026.
• The narrative reflects a blend of robust financial achievements, strategic realignments, and forward-looking initiatives centered around their ongoing investments in AI, digital transformation, and global footprint expansion.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Laser wireless power transmission technology opens new defense, dual-use and civilian market opportunities. 
• Japanese politicians inclined to spend more on defense, but worried about the national budget. Likely to split the difference between 2% of GDP and Trump’s demands. 
• Aircraft, Defense & Space to drive sales and profit growth through 2030. Buy on dips for the long term.

• Micron Technology’s recent earnings provided insights into its performance and strategic outlook.
• The company appears to be navigating industry dynamics effectively, particularly within the NAND and DRAM markets.
• The call highlighted several critical areas of development and potential challenges facing Micron.

• Trump said he will place import taxes on 100% of pharmaceutical drugs, which will begin on Oct.1. Below, we shared our views on this new policy.
• Some companies continue to repurchase/increase their holdings despite the industry’s significant rise this year, indicating that major shareholders truly have confidence in the outlook. We specifically listed these companies.
• The fluctuations in Duality’s stock price are obviously driven by capital after being included in HK Stock Connect. we suggest that investors pay attention to risks as Duality faces correction.

• Q1FY26 pre-sales came in weak led by delayed launches; however, KPDL’s management has guided to do INR 3500cr+ (25% YoY growth) in pre-sales for the full-year FY26.
• During Q1FY26, KPDL completed allotment of 14.3% equity stake to Blackstone bringing in INR 417cr of capital that is earmarked to be predominantly used as growth capital. 
• Due to ongoing transition phase with Blackstone (BX US) being added as a promoter, the business development activity has been slow. However, more clarity and visibility is expected post Q2.

• Jabil Inc. has reported its fiscal year 2025 results, showcasing solid financial performance against a backdrop of varied market dynamics.
• The company reported approximately $8.3 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, exceeding earlier forecasts by $800 million.
• This revenue increase was broad-based across its three segments: Regulated Industries, Intelligent Infrastructure, and Connected Living & Digital Commerce.

• KB Home’s third quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025 reflect a nuanced picture of its current market position, with both strengths and challenges evident.
• From a financial standpoint, the company managed to deliver over $1.6 billion in total revenues, a figure that met or exceeded its own guidance across key operational metrics.
• This solid performance translates into a diluted earnings per share of $1.61 and an impressive gross margin of 18.9%, excluding inventory-related charges — both of which underscore the company’s ability to effectively manage costs and drive profitability amidst changing market conditions.

• O’Reilly Automotive has been one of the top-performing retail stocks in 2025, rising over 30% yearto-date and recently trading at $103.47.
• While this rally might make the stock appear expensive relative to peers such as AutoZone, Advance Auto Parts, and Genuine Parts, a closer look at the company’s fundamentals justifies its elevated valuation.
• Sales are projected to grow more than 6% annually over the next two years—significantly ahead of peers struggling with stagnation or outright declines.

• Micron delivered a blowout Q4, with $11.3B revenue and $3.03 EPS, led by DRAM’s 27% QoQ growth and an HBM3E run-rate nearing $8B.
• Data centre accounted for 56% of FY2025 sales, driven by LPDDR5 shipments for Nvidia’s GB chips and early HBM4 sampling.
• Management sees 2026 as a tight DRAM supply environment by design, with slower node transitions and deliberate capacity discipline supporting pricing.

• Axon Enterprise, best known for its Tasers, body-worn cameras, and cloud-based evidence management tools, has made headlines yet again.
• The company announced it will acquire Prepared, a U.S.-based emergency communications platform that integrates 911 call data across audio, video, GPS, text, and translation tools into one unified interface.
• Though Axon has not disclosed the official price, media outlets suggest a range of $800 million to $900 million.

• Spin-Off unlocks scale: Sony Financial (~¥23 tn assets) carved out from Sony, with ~¥250 bn market cap and ~¥200 bn free float.
• Balance-Sheet heavy, rate-sensitive: Core life insurance business (~80–85% of profits) supported by strong solvency (ESR 189%).
• Catalysts: Forced selling post-listing, earnings delivery, 40–50% payout policy, and likely TOPIX inclusion within 6–12 months.

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) 2Q25 growth likely reaches ~39% YoY with upside risk if 4Q25 outperforms.  
• Apple (AAPL US) remains the anchor customer driving N2 ramp in 2026.
• Since 2nm technology will be widely adopted starting in 2026, revenue growth is projected to be around 25% YoY.  

• Pacific Textiles is a major knitted fabric manufacturer facing significant headwinds, evidenced by a multi-year decline in revenue and profitability. The company’s performance is closely tied to the cyclical nature of the global apparel market and the inventory management of its key customers.
• The company maintains a high dividend yield, which may appeal to income-focused investors. However, the sustainability of this payout is questionable given the sharp decline in net income and free cash flow, and the dividend per share has already been reduced.
• Strategically, the company is shifting production capacity to its Vietnam facilities to capitalize on lower costs and changing trade dynamics. This move is crucial for future competitiveness but also entails execution risk and underutilization of its China-based assets.

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• Info-Tech Systems is a rapidly growing, profitable provider of cloud-based Human Resource Management (HRM) and accounting software, primarily targeting Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Southeast Asia.
• The company’s growth is underpinned by the strong digitalization trend among SMEs, supported by government initiatives. Its strategy is focused on geographic expansion from its core Singapore market into Malaysia, Hong Kong, and India.
• While the company boasts a high-margin, recurring revenue model and a debt-free balance sheet, it faces risks from high market concentration in Singapore and increasing competition from larger, established players like Zoho and SAP.

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• Global oil majors are slashing jobs and investments as weak demand, OPEC+ supply hikes, and rising costs drive the sharpest industry retrenchment since the 2020 collapse.
• U.S. producers face added strain from tariffs, cost inflation, and consolidation, forcing capex cuts, layoffs, and highlighting the slowdown of shale-driven growth that once powered record output.
• ExxonMobil emerges strongest among peers, supported by low debt, robust free cash flow, advantaged low-cost assets, and global diversification, giving it unmatched resilience in a prolonged low-price environment.

• Zijin Mining is a rapidly growing global mining powerhouse, having recently become the world’s third-largest mining company by market capitalization, driven by surging gold and copper prices.
• The company exhibits a strong growth trajectory, underpinned by a successful strategy of aggressive international acquisitions and superior operational capabilities that enable faster mine development.
• Despite robust financial performance and a positive commodity outlook, the company’s valuation appears stretched, with high short interest suggesting significant market skepticism.

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• Nuvama Wealth is capitalizing on India’s burgeoning financialization trend, with its re-branding and strategic focus on affluent and ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNIs) driving strong growth in client assets and profitability.
• As India’s wealth management market matures and faces increasing regulatory scrutiny, Nuvama’s differentiated model position it uniquely to capture a larger share of the shifting landscape.
• Nuvama’s integrated platform and execution-focused management team are navigating industry-wide challenges, from tightening regulatory framework to sustain a growth trajectory that is outperforming peers and creating long-term value.

• Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, a three-decade-old full-service brokerage house, is set to go public with a fresh issue to fund its working capital and expansion.
• The offering provides a window into a mature, brand-led brokerage with an industry-leading Average Revenue per Client (ARPC) and a strong presence across Tier I, II, and III cities.
• The company’s structural strengths, including its Margin Trading Facility (MTF) business and client vintage, position it for sustained growth in India’s evolving capital markets.

• OpenAI and NVIDIA announced an audacious alliance under which the latter will invest $100 billion in the former
• That investment will be staged to coincide with each completed gigawatt of compute capacity, up to ten gigawatts in total, which the two companies are planning to jointly install
• Is this NVIDIA cutting out the middleman and setting up their very own private hyperscale enterprise to lease their GPUs directly to OpenAI? Uh oh!

• A significant production impact from the suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, following a deadly mud rush incident, could lead to a spike in copper prices.
• The force majeure in the Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) mine will take out 700,000 tons of annualized production in the foreseeable future (>2.5% of global copper production).
• Copper players like Southern Copper (SCCO US), Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), and Teck Resources (TECK US) would be beneficiaries, while Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) could be significantly affected.

• Copper & Gold Torque: Zijin has crossed US$100bn market cap as copper tops US$10,300/t and gold nears US$3,770/oz, with shares up ~60% in 3M and ~83% in 12M.
• Spin-Off Catalyst: Zijin Gold International IPO raised US$3.2bn at HK$71.6/sh; on our quality-weighted view, fair value is ~US$38.5bn EV vs ~US$24bn at IPO.
• Valuation Upside: 2027E SOTP points to HK$34.8/sh base (+12%), HK$38–39/sh spot (+25%), and HK$39–41/sh bull (+30%); detailed Zijin Gold valuation in our companion report.

• Alibaba Group has announced an aggressive expansion of its artificial intelligence ambitions, earmarking over $50 billion in new AI and cloud investments over the next three years—an amount greater than its entire spending over the last decade.
• This significant push is aimed at positioning the company at the forefront of Asia’s generative AI and cloud infrastructure race.
• Central to this effort is the launch of its next-generation large language model, Qwen3-Max, following the success of Qwen2.5, which already has over 90,000 derivative models globally.

• Manulife Financial’s second-quarter 2025 earnings call provides a comprehensive view of the company’s performance and strategic direction.
• The quarter was marked by promising growth in several areas, alongside some challenges that need addressing.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• China announced game approval for the September batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game in September. 

• Glencore’s dual role as competitor and gatekeeper shifts bargaining leverage, making deal terms contingent on a rival’s consent.
• Cross-Continental reviews across Canada, Chile, and beyond create compounding risks of serial delays, amplified by political sensitivities over copper’s strategic importance and public opposition to foreign takeovers.
• The option of counterbids or merger breakup invites activists and bidders, fuelling uncertainty and volatility 

• FactSet Research Systems delivered strong fourth quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 results, reflecting its continued resilience and capability to navigate shifting market conditions.
• The firm reported a 5.4% revenue growth rate to $2.3 billion for the fiscal year, and highlighted a significant increase in organic Annual Subscription Value (ASV), with the fourth quarter seeing the largest ASV addition in its history at $81.8 million.
• This ASV growth, especially notable at 5.7% sequentially, signals robust demand for FactSet’s offerings, particularly in wealth and asset management sectors, driven by an increasing appetite for data solutions.

• Earnings Growth: Non-resource engines (Food, FamilyMart, ICT, Textiles) compounding at double-digit rates; mid- to high-single-digit EPS growth outlook.
• Valuation: Trades at ~13× FY2026E P/E, in line with peers, offering steady TSR without a valuation premium.
• Capital Returns: ¥200/share dividend + ¥150 bn buybacks underpin 40–50% payout; EPS uplift from share reduction.

• Volume growth: Capacity rising from 3 mtpa to 4 mtpa by early 2026 supports double-digit EPS growth.
• Margin strength: >50% gross margins and net-cash balance sheet provide resilience despite alumina cyclicality.
• Valuation appeal: Trades at 7–8× FY25E P/E and ~5× EV/EBITDA, a discount to regional peers.

• Alibaba (9988 HK) launched Qwen3-Max, its largest LLM to date, along with a suite of Qwen3 models and technical upgrades at its annual flagship conference, reinforcing its full-stack AI ambitions.
• The stock has surged nearly 50% month-to-date, fueled by investor optimism over AI-related upside, since the August 29 investor call.
• Investors now await proof that execution and performance will deliver on Alibaba’s bold technical claims and high market expectations.

• Copper earnings leverage: Equity-method stakes in Collahuasi and Anglo Sur mean every +10% copper move adds ~¥25–30 bn net income (~3% EPS), giving Mitsui underappreciated upside torque.
• LNG stability & cash flows: Long-term contracts in Mozambique, Cameron, Qatar, and Sakhalin underpin resilient earnings and support ¥400 bn annual buybacks (~5% equity).
• Valuation: P/B discount vs Itochu has closed (~1.1× each), but Berkshire’s ≥10% stake enforces capital discipline; TSR outlook is 6–9% CAGR through FY28, with copper strength providing double-digit upside.

• Shiga Bank is well-leveraged to Japan’s rate hike cycle and regional revitalization strategy, with higher market-rate loan exposure than peers, enabling stronger earnings sensitivity to rising rates.
• Core profitability is improving, driven by double-digit NII growth and rising NIMs. A CET1 ratio of 14.0% supports capital returns, selective M&A, and ¥700bn in planned loan growth through 2029.
• Despite a +63% YTD rally, shares remain undervalued at 0.7x P/B. Our target of ¥7,850/share implies ~+20% upside, supported by improving RoE, operational efficiencies, and capital deployment.

• Cycle turning: Q1 FY25 marked the trough; Q2 guidance implies +30% revenue and +46% OP rebound, with Q3 set to extend the recovery.
• Enterprise SSDs anchor profits: ~70–75% of EBITDA tied to AI/cloud workloads, cushioning volatility in PCs and smartphones.
• Even after a ~50% rally since September, Kioxia trades at ~5–6× EV/EBITDA vs. peers at 9–12×; sponsor selldowns and NAND ASP volatility could test the rally.

• Context: The Toyota Motor (7203 JP) vs. Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Suzuki and short Toyota targets a 9% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Tokai has sold its lossmaking German electrode unit, cut global electrode capacity by 25%, and acquired Bridgestone’s 180ktpa Thai carbon black plant — actions that remove EBIT drag 
• These moves could lift FY27 EPS from ~¥92 (base case) to ¥125–130 (+35–40%), with margins rising toward 9–10% versus 5.5% in FY24. Q1 FY25 already (OPM 8.9%).
• Shares remain flat at ~¥1,000 (0.8× P/B, 19.6× FY25E P/E falling to 8.8× FY28E), leaving room for re-rating if Tokai delivers sustained >8% margins over the next 2–3 quarters.

• AEM is a key solutions provider in the semiconductor back-end testing process, with a strong historical reliance on its main customer, Intel. The company is currently at a pivotal point, aiming to diversify its customer base and capitalize on the growing demand for advanced semiconductor testing, particularly in the AI and HPC sectors.
• Recent financial performance has been mixed, with a significant revenue and net income decline from a 2022 peak, but showing signs of recovery in the first half of 2025. The company’s ability to successfully ramp up production for new customers and manage its reliance on Intel will be critical for future growth.
• Leadership changes, including the recent appointment of a new CEO, introduce both opportunities for strategic shifts and risks related to management stability. Investor confidence will likely hinge on the new leadership’s ability to execute on the diversification strategy and deliver consistent financial results.

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• Big Tech is throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at the AI boom and neocloud providers, who are building AI data centers, are central players.
• I wrote a Research piece about Nebius two months ago. Since then, its stock has doubled, thanks in part to a $17.4 billion contract with Microsoft.
• I took a close look at the deal, ran some scenarios, and came across IREN, a promising but lesser-known company that’s trying to follow the same playbook

• LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) holds a strong position as one of India’s largest housing finance companies, benefiting significantly from the brand equity and extensive network of its parent, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC).
• The company has demonstrated robust growth in net income and operating cash flow over the past three years, driven by strong demand in the Indian housing market and a strategic focus on the salaried customer segment.
• While facing intense competition from banks and other housing finance companies, which puts pressure on margins, LICHF is strategically diversifying into higher-yielding segments like project finance and Loan Against Property (LAP) to support future profitability.

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• M Dias Branco is the undisputed market leader in Brazil’s cookies and pasta segments, possessing a vast portfolio of well-recognized brands and an extensive nationwide distribution network.
• The company is exposed to significant commodity price volatility, particularly wheat, and currency fluctuations, which can pressure margins. However, a vertical integration strategy, including its own mills, helps mitigate some of this risk.
• After a period of margin compression, recent financial performance shows signs of recovery driven by price adjustments and cost control measures. Future growth is expected to come from organic expansion in underpenetrated regions, product innovation, and potential acquisitions.

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• Last week NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) announced a 5 billion USD investment into Intel Corp (INTC US). 
• If the collaboration between the two tech giants is successful, it could lead to a revival of the entire Intel supply chain.
• AEM (AEM SP) has historically been closely linked to Intel, so any revival of Intel has the potential to benefit AEM substantially.

• Press reports indicated that China could temporarily suspend purchases of BHP’s iron ore from Jimblebar, which could account for a mid-single digit percentage of revenue
• The UK press reported Geraldine Slattery will likely be BHP’s new CEO, who currently heads BHP’s Australian operations and has over three decades with the company
• BHP is 4% above our DCF, its 2.8x P/B is not clearly excessive or attractive, and we see risks to iron ore, copper and coal prices from a broad slowdown

• Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company operating as a service provider, owner and franchisor of second-hand goods and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
• CCV is currently executing a clearly stated growth strategy involving the reshaping of its personal finance business complemented by growing its corporately-owned store network through acquisition.
• The recent FY25 result was a strong representation of a business that is successfully transitioning and a good leading indicator of the changing business mix which should ultimately result in a business that is geographically broadened yet operating a simplified lending business, with a lower risk profile and improved growth funding optionality.

• Exide Industries is doubling down on lithium-ion cell and pack manufacturing with huge committed capex, while sustaining its dominant lead-acid franchise.
• The company’s strong cash flows from lead acid batteries are funding high-risk, high-reward bets on EV and renewable storage, positioning it as India’s only dual-chemistry energy storage leader.
• Execution risk in lithium-ion scale-up is high, but Exide’s brand equity provide a buffer. The story now hinges on whether early-mover advantage in Li-ion can translate into sustainable returns.

• Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.
• Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).
• Valuation & Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.

• Historical Context is Crucial: This report analyzes Xilinx Inc. as a standalone entity prior to its acquisition by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which was announced in October 2020 and completed in February 2022. Xilinx ceased trading on the NASDAQ post-acquisition. Therefore, this primer serves as a historical analysis of a foundational semiconductor company.
• Dominant FPGA Market Leader: Xilinx was the inventor of the Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) and the market leader, consistently holding over 50% market share. Its primary competitor was Altera, which was acquired by Intel. The company’s core strength was its highly flexible and adaptive processing platforms that enabled rapid innovation across diverse, high-growth markets like data centers, 5G communications, automotive, and aerospace & defense.
• Strategic Pivot to Platform Company: Under the leadership of CEO Victor Peng, Xilinx successfully transitioned from a chip supplier to a platform-centric company, focusing on high-growth areas like data center acceleration and AI inference. This strategy involved significant R&D investment and acquisitions to bolster its software and IP portfolio, leading to strong revenue growth in its targeted markets prior to the acquisition.

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• China Satellite Communications (China Satcom) is a core professional subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, holding a national basic telecommunications business license. It is the primary operator of satellite communications in China, with a fleet of geostationary satellites covering China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and the Pacific.
• The company’s revenue streams are primarily derived from satellite resource leasing and value-added services, including broadcasting, telecom, corporate, and government applications. While revenue has seen a slight decline in recent years, the company maintains a strong market position within China.
• The global satellite communication market is projected to experience significant growth, driven by the increasing demand for high-speed internet, particularly in remote areas, and the expansion of applications in the military, aviation, and maritime sectors. This presents both opportunities and challenges for China Satcom as the industry landscape evolves with the rise of LEO constellations and new technologies.

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• Transformation into a Diversified FMCG Major: Tata Consumer Products (TCPL) is aggressively diversifying beyond its core tea and salt businesses, moving into higher-growth categories like packaged foods (Tata Sampann), snacks (Tata Soulfull), and ready-to-drink beverages. Recent acquisitions of Capital Foods (Ching’s Secret, Smith & Jones) and Organic India significantly expand its total addressable market and enhance its presence in high-margin segments.
• Strong Brand Equity and Distribution as Key Moats: The company leverages the immense trust associated with the ‘Tata’ brand, providing a significant competitive advantage. Its extensive distribution network, reaching millions of retail outlets, combined with a growing e-commerce presence, creates a formidable barrier to entry and a platform to scale new product launches and acquisitions effectively.
• Focus on Premiumization and Innovation Driving Growth: TCPL is strategically focused on premiumizing its portfolio across categories, such as value-added salts and premium tea variants, to capture evolving consumer preferences and improve margins. A consistent pipeline of new product launches, particularly in health and wellness, caters to modern consumer trends and is a key driver of future growth.

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• Leading Digital Bank and Auto Financier: Ally Financial holds a strong position as the largest all-digital bank in the U.S. and a dominant player in the automotive finance market. This dual focus provides diversified revenue streams and a solid customer base.
• Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns: The company has demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns through consistent dividend payments. Recent financial performance shows a significant rebound in Q2 2025, with adjusted EPS beating analyst expectations, driven by an expanded net interest margin and disciplined cost control.
• Navigating a Challenging Environment: Ally faces headwinds from intense competition in the financial services industry, potential economic downturns impacting loan performance, and a dynamic regulatory landscape. The company’s reliance on the auto lending market also exposes it to risks associated with this specific sector.

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• Everbright Securities is a prominent, state-affiliated financial services firm in China with a comprehensive business model spanning wealth management, investment banking, and asset management.
• The company’s financial performance is inherently tied to the volatility of China’s capital markets, as evidenced by recent declines in revenue and net income following periods of strong growth. Regulatory shifts and intense domestic competition are key factors influencing its operational landscape.
• Strategically, the firm is focused on optimizing its capital structure and expanding into higher-margin businesses like institutional brokerage and wealth management to navigate the highly fragmented and competitive domestic market.

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• The one-week lemon shortage did not impact the stock price.
• The stock price has plunged for three months to HK$395 from the peak HK$618.
• The revenue growth and the margin were healthy in 1H25.

• Market Leader with Robust Order Book: Larsen & Toubro is a dominant player in India’s engineering and construction (E&C) sector with a record order book of ₹6.1 lakh crore as of June 2025, providing strong revenue visibility. A significant 46% of this order book is from international markets, particularly the Middle East, indicating successful geographical diversification.
• Diversified Business Model Mitigates Risk: The company operates a well-diversified model across Infrastructure, Energy, Hi-Tech Manufacturing, IT & Technology Services (through LTIMindtree and L&T Technology Services), and Financial Services. This structure allows L&T to capture growth across various economic sectors and mitigate risks associated with the cyclicality of the E&C industry.
• Strategic Focus on High-Growth Areas: L&T is strategically positioning itself for future growth by focusing on high-margin areas like green hydrogen, smart city technology, defense manufacturing, and digital services. The company’s new five-year plan emphasizes deepening its strengths in India and the Middle East while exploring these new, technology-driven opportunities.

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• The Trump administration’s announcement of U.S. $100,000 fee for new H-1B petitions  triggered anxiety, travel confusion, and immediate negative market reaction for Indian IT names.
• Tech workers in the US report heightened hostility, reluctance to travel, and SMB clients unable to absorb fees risk reduced sponsorship, higher attrition, and retention challenges.
• While there may be limited short-term P&L impact, but structural threats — including the HIRE Act — could reshape delivery models, near-shoring, and pricing over 6–18 months.

• MetaOptics is a vertically integrated, early-stage company specializing in metalens technology, a revolutionary approach to optics with the potential to disrupt various industries by replacing traditional bulky lenses with ultra-thin, lightweight, and efficient alternatives.
• The company recently debuted on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) Catalist board, making it the first pure-play metalens company to go public. The IPO proceeds are intended to fund research and development, business expansion, and strategic partnerships.
• While MetaOptics holds a strong global market position, ranking 5th by revenue among metalens companies, it faces significant risks, including a history of losses, reliance on a limited number of suppliers, and the nascent stage of mass production for its metalens prototypes.

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• With a 50% tariff imposed on India by the US, Vietnam’s factories have now become the busiest in the region. Our textile stocks have rallied slightly in response to this. 
• Corroborating Vietnam’s strength was Dream International (1126 HK) Post Results Call: Moving Into A Great Peak Season, and now recently Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) and Stella International (1836 HK) 
• Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) trades at 6x PE trailing with a 13% dividend yield. However, as we enter peak season with busy factories, we believe the situation could improve significantly. 

• Context: The Westpac Banking (WBC AU) vs. VanEck Australian Banks (MVB AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average.
• Highlights: The dislocation highlights the recent outperformance of Westpac vs. some of its peers, pointing to a potential underweight in a portfolio context.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Nvidia and Intel have announced a $5 billion deal to collaborate on designing CPU GPU systems for data centers and chiplets for PCs.
• Jensen Huang surprisingly praised Intel during a press conference, marking a significant shift in Nvidia’s history of enmity towards Intel.
• The collaboration aims to address the scalability limitations of current systems by offering x86 head nodes with NVLink for data centers, filling a market gap for both companies.

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• Altona Rare Earths is the successor to Altona Energy, which listed on AIM in 2005.
• A new management team has wisely shifted the focus to critical minerals and decided to focus on the Monte Muambe Rare Earth Project, as it could quickly move into production.
• Altona is being led by Africa-based CEO Cédric Simonet, who has an in-depth knowledge of the continent’s resources projects and is a trained geologist.

• Weak travel growth getting weaker, now years out from steepest part of recovery
• Most airlines & hotel chains have benefitted little from improved travel demand
• In recent months, appears momentum shifting back to travel intermediaries 

• AvePoint is a dominant software provider for data management within the Microsoft ecosystem, capitalizing on the global shift to cloud-based collaboration and increasingly stringent data governance requirements.
• The company has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory, marked by consistent double-digit revenue growth and a significant shift towards a recurring SaaS model, which now constitutes the majority of its revenue.
• After a history of net losses, AvePoint has recently achieved quarterly profitability and is generating robust operating and free cash flow, signaling a pivotal inflection point in its financial performance.

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