Event-Driven Archives | Page 4 of 186 | Smartkarma

Back on the 30th April 2025, Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) (“Meilan Airport”) announced a potential change of control, via its domestic shares.
In principle, this situation involves the re-arrangement of Meilan Airport shares under the same ultimate beneficiary. Nevertheless, the share transfer will trigger an unconditional MGO at HK$10.62/share.
Yesterday, H-class shareholders approved a “Special Deal” at an EGM. And the share price closed above terms. That vote has nothing to do with the share transfer. Perhaps …

Douzone Bizon Situation: TOB Setup Looks Weak; Risks Remain, but Still a Tactical Angle in Play

EQT appears to be focused on IRR, prioritizing integration over equity; TOB looks low-return, rights issue chatter spooked markets today, so TOB-driven positioning isn’t realistic near term.
EQT also faces risks: FSS cap raise approval and a relatively light 34.85% stake limiting exit flexibility. Still, there’s a tactical angle in play.
EQT skipping TOB, but stealthy on-screen buys could spark a flow bounce; local market still eyes short-term setup trade on gradual stake-building.

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Nov 07

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting / ASX Relisting Index Event and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting / ASX Relisting Index Event
Cathay (293 HK) Takes Out Qatar Airway’s Stake
Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): A Day Before Close, Effissimo Increases Its Stake Further
Japan Infrastructure Fund (9287JP): Mizuho Leasing (8425 JP)’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely Done
What’s Up – Or Rather, Down – With ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)?
Sotherly Hotels Merger: Preferred Shares Arbitrage Opportunity with 12-14% Spread Amid Buyout Conditions
Sidara / Wood Group – Audit Cleared, One Gate to Close

[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting / ASX Relisting Index Event

In August, Light & Wonder (LNW AU) / Light & Wonder (LNW US) announced that the company would give up its US listing and move to an ASX Primary Listing.
The NASDAQ delisting has been confirmed (as expected) for 12 November. October saw significant CDI conversions. More have come in the last few days.
This creates a significant, and interesting set of index events to track.

Cathay (293 HK) Takes Out Qatar Airway’s Stake

Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) has announced plans to acquire Qatar Airways’ 9.57% stake at HK$10.8374/share, or an outlay of HK$6.96bn (~US$890mn).
Qatar Airways acquired this stake in November 2017 at HK$13.65/share.
Upon approval from the SFC (mainly granting a MGO waiver), Swire Pacific (19 HK)‘s stake in Cathay increases to 47.69% (from 43.12%); and Air China’s stake to 31.78% (from 28.74%).

Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): A Day Before Close, Effissimo Increases Its Stake Further

On 23 October, the MBO price for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) was increased by 42.4% to JPY2,919 per share. The offer closes on 7 November.
Today, Effissimo further increased its stake to 8.6 million shares, representing 13.97% of outstanding shares and a 14.82% ownership ratio. The implication is that Effissimo remains unsupportive.
The shares trade above terms, and the close is likely to be extended. Another bump is possible, but likely, the Ogawas will first try to lower the minimum acceptance condition.

Japan Infrastructure Fund (9287JP): Mizuho Leasing (8425 JP)’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely Done

Japan Infrastructure Fund Investment Corporation (9287 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Mizuho Leasing (8425 JP) at JPY65,000, a 21.5% premium to the last close price.
The offer is light, as it is below book value (implying a P/NAV of 0.82x) and is below the midpoint of the IFA-adjusted book valuation range.
However, a dispersed shareholder register with no substantial shareholders suggests that it is an uphill struggle for an activist to agitate for a bump. This is likely a done deal.

What’s Up – Or Rather, Down – With ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)?

On the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced US$7.07/share NBIO. The bidding consortium subsequently bumped terms to US$8/share on the 3rd July.
After shares traded through terms for a week, the Consortium increased (best & final) non-binding terms to US$8.15/share, a 29% premium to undisturbed. The Offer is via a UK Scheme.
That last bump was on the 10th October. JERA, with 11.7% of shares out, and 25.7% of minorities, is supportive, IF terms are firmed. The Special Committee is still mulling.

Sotherly Hotels Merger: Preferred Shares Arbitrage Opportunity with 12-14% Spread Amid Buyout Conditions

Sotherly Hotels is being acquired by Kemmons Wilson Hospitality Partners and Ascendant Capital Partners, with common shares priced at $2.25 each.
Preferred shares SOHOB, SOHOO, and SOHON have a 12-14% spread to offer price, with conversion options post-merger.
The merger isn’t subject to financing conditions, with funding commitments from Apollo and Ascendant-affiliated entities.

Sidara / Wood Group – Audit Cleared, One Gate to Close

Two gates cleared: Borrowing-limit and FY24 audit milestones complete; Sidara’s 30 p bid now hinges solely on A&E execution by 31 Dec 2025.
Market discount persists: At 22 p, shares imply 30–35 % failure probability; downside largely priced, upside to 30 p offers 36 % absolute return.
Event-Driven focus: Binary risk now procedural, not strategic—spread likely to tighten toward high-20s once A&E documentation confirmed.

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Nov 06

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Market Movements Support the Case of a Higher Offer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Market Movements Support the Case of a Higher Offer
StubWorld: Sumitomo Chemical/Sumitomo Pharma, Hyundai Motor/ Kia Corp, Ecopro Co/Ecopro BM
[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917 JP) – Murakami at 20% and Mandom Offers A Sweet Poison Pill
Reading the Latest Flow Patterns to Time a SK Square NAV Squeeze Trade
Physicswallah IPO: Index Inclusion Possibilities & Timing
Australia’s Big Banks: Options Flash Mixed Signals Ahead of Earnings
ABF – Primark Separation: Governance Reset or Value Catalyst?

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Market Movements Support the Case of a Higher Offer

Last month, nearly two dozen global asset managers, through ACGA, submitted a joint letter to the boards of Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Toyota Motor regarding the tender offer.
The letter outlined five issues, which distilled down to concerns about a low-balled offer. Their cause is increasingly supported by market movements, which support the case for the bump.
Recent activism against several low-balled tenders signals that TICO, despite its size, is not immune. My SoTP valuation is JPY19,607, which is 20.3% above the offer price.

StubWorld: Sumitomo Chemical/Sumitomo Pharma, Hyundai Motor/ Kia Corp, Ecopro Co/Ecopro BM

For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco’s trading at extreme levels, in both “set-up” and “unwind” territory.
Preceding the chart/table-heavy insight are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917 JP) – Murakami at 20% and Mandom Offers A Sweet Poison Pill

Mandom Corp (4917 JP) yesterday decided to launch a question-response effort for the Murakami-san Group ownership of Mandom shares up to and above 20%. This is a Poison Pill precursor.
There’s a drawn out set of questions, answers, etc, at the end of which, the Independent Committee will decide that Murakami is a Bad Person and the Poison Pill proceeds.
Murakami Group is apparently now over 20%. That’s a little tricky. But this looks like a Good Poison Pill.

Reading the Latest Flow Patterns to Time a SK Square NAV Squeeze Trade

Retail flow drove the ratio: selling pushed it higher, buying dragged it lower. Pre‑Sept they dip‑bought and flipped; since late Sept they’ve chased longs, fueling Hynix’s rally.
Instos joined retail chasing Hynix, juicing momentum; KRX’s investment‑alert acts as a speed bump, likely cooling hot‑money flows and tilting the ratio in Square’s favor.
But retail still drives Hynix; until they cool off, Square NAV squeeze is early. A sector‑wide AI pivot cooling retail frenzy is the real catalyst, bigger than KRX’s alert.

Physicswallah IPO: Index Inclusion Possibilities & Timing

By Brian Freitas

Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 319.26m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$392m at a valuation of US$3.5bn.
The price band has been set at INR 103-109/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
The stock will be added to the AMFI Smallcap segment and inclusion in the Nifty Smallcap 250 index is likely in March. Global index inclusion could commence in June.

Australia’s Big Banks: Options Flash Mixed Signals Ahead of Earnings

By Gaudenz Schneider

Australia’s largest banks are due to report within the next four trading days. Collectively, they account for 23% of the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
A beat or miss of expectations can result in a strong move, up or down. This Insight analyzes options to provide an indication of how big a move to expect.
Option traders price in outsized moves for several but not all banks, with ANZ (ANZ AU) as the largest outlier.

ABF – Primark Separation: Governance Reset or Value Catalyst?

ABF’s structural review could separate Primark from Food, unlocking value through clearer governance and capital allocation focus.
Our SOTP yields £26/share base case, implying ~17% upside to current price.
Event-Driven setup favours long ABF vs discretionary peers into April 2026 review conclusion.

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Nov 05

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Matheson’s Motive For Avoiding MAND’s Dissentient Shareholders and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Matheson’s Motive For Avoiding MAND’s Dissentient Shareholders
[Japan Activism] DeNA Attracts Murakami Group – Potentially Squeezable With Reason
Mandom (4917 JP): Countermeasures Ostensibly to Buy Time for a Higher Offer
D’Alba Global – End of Lockup Period For 10% of Outstanding Shares
TTSH Plans Delisting via Reverse/Forward Stock Split Amidst Potential Privatization and Shareholder Dynamics
Current Active Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Potential Buyouts
Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: Arbitrage, SPACs, Mergers, and Litigation Opportunities in 2025
DuPont Completes the Spin-Off of Qnity Electronics Inc.; Regular Way Trading Commences

Matheson’s Motive For Avoiding MAND’s Dissentient Shareholders

Back in 2021, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) took 84.89%-held Jardine Strategic (JS SP) private by way of an Amalgamation. As Matheson was permitted to vote, the outcome was assured.
Less clear are “fair value” appraisal rights afforded Strategic’s dissentient shareholders, the outcome of which navigates the Bermuda/UK courts. To date, dissenters have mostly had their way.
Which may have precipitated Matheson opting for a (full value) Scheme for Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), in which appraisal rights are not afforded.

[Japan Activism] DeNA Attracts Murakami Group – Potentially Squeezable With Reason

Last week, “Murakami Group” (a group of investors who jointly file large shareholder filings) announced a 5+% stake in DeNA (2432 JP). The stock popped. Then they filed again.
This was not surprising. It has long been known as a “value” name (and has the requisite short balance to prove it). The question is how much value IS there
The question is how much value IS there. And to whom? It’s an interesting question which deserves a look, so we take a look.

Mandom (4917 JP): Countermeasures Ostensibly to Buy Time for a Higher Offer

Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has proposed countermeasures in response to Murakami’s 18.87% voting stake and to ostensibly secure time for an alternative, viable (higher) offer.
The read-across from the proposal is that CVC’s offer at current terms will fail, CVC is unwilling to match Murakami/Hibiki’s expectations, and there could be genuine interest from third-party bidders.
Nevertheless, countermeasures are unnecessary as the share price and presence of activists provide the time needed for the Board’s purported aim to secure a higher offer.

D’Alba Global – End of Lockup Period For 10% of Outstanding Shares

There is an end of a lock-up period for 1.3 million shares (10% of outstanding shares) for d’Alba Global starting 22 November 2025.
This could potentially result in additional selling by insiders which could negatively impact its share price in the coming weeks. We remain Bearish on d’Alba Global.
The overall proportion of freely tradable shares, which was only 32.7% right after listing, will increase to 83.9% one year later.

TTSH Plans Delisting via Reverse/Forward Stock Split Amidst Potential Privatization and Shareholder Dynamics

TTSH plans to delist from Nasdaq using a reverse/forward stock split, cashing out fractional shareholders at $6.60/share.
Management owns 37% of TTSH, while Fund 1 Investments holds 29%; approval of the proposal is likely.
Historical precedents show similar reverse/forward split transactions mostly succeed, with only 2 out of 11 failing.

Current Active Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Potential Buyouts

Challenger Energy Group’s merger with Sintana Energy offers a 15% actionable spread, with easy hedging options via Sintana borrow.
WonderFi Technologies’ acquisition by Robinhood awaits Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization consent, with a buyout expected in H2 2025.
Falcon Oil & Gas asset sale to TBN involves a fluctuating spread of 30%-50%, with minimal risk of deal collapse.

Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: Arbitrage, SPACs, Mergers, and Litigation Opportunities in 2025

Bel Fuse’s Class A and B shares have a 25% price spread; historical trends suggest eventual price convergence.
Lennar’s divestiture of MRP stake offers a 6.38% premium; government shutdown delays SEC approval, affecting exchange timeline.
LakeShore Biopharma’s privatization offer faces widened spread due to Nasdaq delisting; liquidity issues persist despite 18% upside potential.

DuPont Completes the Spin-Off of Qnity Electronics Inc.; Regular Way Trading Commences

On November 1, 2025, DuPont (NYSE: DD) completed the separation of its Electronics business as Qnity Electronics, Inc. (NYSE: Q), into a separate public company.
Regular-Way trading commenced on November 3, 2025.DD gained 2.97%, while Q lost -1.02% on the first day of regular way trading.
On an overall basis, DD (consolidated) gained 5.91% since the spin-off announcement on May 22, 2024, underperforming S&P 500 which gained 29.1% during the same period.

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Nov 04

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach
Weekly Update (WDC, AAF, LBTYA, LEN)
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October 2025 Report

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach

Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC’s expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.
The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week’s reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.

Weekly Update (WDC, AAF, LBTYA, LEN)

By Richard Howe

This week we had a busy week of earnings (WDC, AAF, LBTYA), and it will continue next week.
Honeywell (HON) spun off 100% of its Advanced Materials business, Solstice (SOLS), on October 30, 2025.
Solstice was added to the S&P 500 and performed well on its first day of trading before selling off on Friday.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October 2025 Report

GBL: discount 28.6% (Oct 31). Selling €1.7bn GBL Capital NAV for €1.5bn cash (+€0.4bn deferred); €0.6bn commitments transferred. Simpler, more liquid, greater buyback firepower—supports discount narrowing.
Sweden: Industrivärden discount 5.8% (near lows). Investor AB resilient; NAV SEK 1,024bn, TSR +5%. Quality ballast, limited discount alpha now.
Vivendi: 33.2% discount to €4.67 NAV; AMF-driven OPA path intact. Scenario-weighted value ~€4.17; prefer outright long or stub vs UMG/Banijay/MFE; trim if discount narrows to 10–15%.

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Nov 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (03 Nov) – ANE and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Nov) – ANE, Dongfeng, Mayne, AUB, Digital Holdings, Makino, Soft99, SCSK
Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results – Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year – Likely More To Come
HK CEO/Director Dealings (31 Oct 2025): Shanghai Chicmax, AuGroup (Shenzhen), Twintek, Rongzun
Pine Labs IPO: Slashed Offering Size & Lower Valuation
(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Nov) – ANE, Dongfeng, Mayne, AUB, Digital Holdings, Makino, Soft99, SCSK

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Brainpad Inc (3655 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).

Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results – Strong Upward Revisions Like Last Year – Likely More To Come

In the days approaching H1 results in 2024, Japanese banks raised H1 guidance. Among the top 50 banks outside the top 10, the increase was significant.
This year, out of those 50 banks, 12 have either reported (2) or raised guidance (10) for H1 in the past five weeks by an average of 47% (median 43%).
Higher loan income, core business profits, and lower credit costs are the main culprits. Expect lots more guidance revisions in the next 10 days.

HK CEO/Director Dealings (31 Oct 2025): Shanghai Chicmax, AuGroup (Shenzhen), Twintek, Rongzun

The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors.
However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.

Pine Labs IPO: Slashed Offering Size & Lower Valuation

By Brian Freitas

Pine Labs (0568874D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 176.5m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$439m at a valuation of US$2.86bn.
The price band has been set at INR 210-221/share and could price at the top end of the range. The IPO raise and valuation are sharply lower than earlier reports.
Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in May but flow will be small given the low float and the Smallcap indices that it is added to.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

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Nov 02

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Last Week In Event SPACE: Nidec/Ibiden and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Last Week In Event SPACE: Nidec/Ibiden, LG Chem, Mayne Pharma, Jardine Matheson
Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SCSK Corp, AUB, Brainpad, ANE Cayman, Sumitomo Densetsu, Sumitomo Densetsu
POSCO: Signs a Strategic Partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs

Last Week In Event SPACE: Nidec/Ibiden, LG Chem, Mayne Pharma, Jardine Matheson

Nidec (6594 JP)‘s deletion is a LOT of stock to sell. The Ibiden (4062 JP)‘s Nikkei 225 inclusion is huge. It’ll make the stock enormously squeezy for a long while.
Palliser has a point. LG Chem (051910 KS) should pare down its LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) stake, and buy back shares. Yet, would/will management stubbornly swat away any such proposal?
The latest twist in the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) saga as FIRB looks set to ding the transaction if there is a possibility Cosette closes a manufacturing site in Adelaide.

Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SCSK Corp, AUB, Brainpad, ANE Cayman, Sumitomo Densetsu, Sumitomo Densetsu

I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Six new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: AUB (AUB AU), ANE (9956 HK), SCSK (9719 JP), Brainpad (3655 JP), Sumitomo Riko (5191 JP), and Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Humm Group (HUM AU), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ).

POSCO: Signs a Strategic Partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs

POSCO has signed a strategic partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs. POSCO is likely to invest more than 1 trillion won to purchase at least a 10% stake in Cleveland-Cliffs by early 2026.
Local media have mentioned that POSCO is likely to invest more than 1 trillion won (US700 million) to purchase at least a 10% stake in Cleveland-Cliffs by 2026.
Overall, we believe that a potential US$700 million investment in Cleveland-Cliffs for about 10% stake in the company could have a positive impact on POSCO.

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Nov 01

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Intel on Today’s SK Square Price Action: Rotation Flow Triggered by Hynix’s 10% Fund Cap Removal and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Intel on Today’s SK Square Price Action: Rotation Flow Triggered by Hynix’s 10% Fund Cap Removal
SK Innovation – End of Lockup Period For 33% of Outstanding Shares
LG Chem: Considering Higher Dividend Payout Using Sale Proceeds from LGES
SK D&D: Delisting Tender Offer by Hahn & Co Fails – What’s Next?
Sintana Energy’s Acquisition of Challenger Energy: Merger Arbitrage Opportunity with 15% Spread and Minimal Regulatory Risks
Update – Honeywell Completes the Spin-Off of Solstice; Regular-Way Trading Commences
Ercros: Regulatory Green Light, Shareholder Hurdles Ahead
DuPont De Nemours, Inc. (NYSE: DD) To Separate Its Electronics Business on Nov 1

Intel on Today’s SK Square Price Action: Rotation Flow Triggered by Hynix’s 10% Fund Cap Removal

KOFIA says Hynix hit 10.89% weight in October vs 8.37% in September, lifting the 10% fund cap — now local funds can size up like Samsung Electronics.
SK Square might have been dumped today as locals unwound proxy trades; with Hynix freed from the 10% cap, funds rotated directly into Hynix, front‑running the shift.
Key now is rotation size; SK Square’s beta‑plus trade to Hynix is fading, and near term we should expect relative underperformance as flows migrate.

SK Innovation – End of Lockup Period For 33% of Outstanding Shares

There is an end of a lock-up period for 55.3 million shares (33% of outstanding shares) for SK Innovation (096770 KS) starting 20 November 2025.
This could potentially result in additional selling by insiders which could negatively impact its share price in the coming weeks.
SK Innovation is currently trading at relatively high valuation multiples. We remain Bearish on SK Innovation.

LG Chem: Considering Higher Dividend Payout Using Sale Proceeds from LGES

LG Chem is considering on paying higher dividends using sale proceeds from LG Energy Solution.
This breaks the company’s principle of using only ordinary income from operating activities as a source for dividends.
If indeed LG Chem goes ahead with this plan, this would be as a result of heightened demands from major activist investors including Palliser Capital.

SK D&D: Delisting Tender Offer by Hahn & Co Fails – What’s Next?

SK D&D announced the results of the delisting tender offer by Hahn & Co. SK &D mentioned that the subscription reached only 40% of the planned tender offer amount.
Post failed tender offer for SK D&D by Hahn & Co, we expect this to have a positive impact on SK D&D’s share price.
The major reason for this is that there are still many investors that believe that SK D&D’s shares are significantly undervalued at P/B of only 0.4x.

Sintana Energy’s Acquisition of Challenger Energy: Merger Arbitrage Opportunity with 15% Spread and Minimal Regulatory Risks

Sintana Energy is acquiring Challenger Energy at a 0.4705x exchange ratio, with a 15% actionable spread.
Charlestown Capital Advisors orchestrates the merger, holding significant stakes in both companies and providing financial support.
Merger approval requires 75% of Challenger votes, with 34% already committed, and regulatory approvals expected smoothly.

Update – Honeywell Completes the Spin-Off of Solstice; Regular-Way Trading Commences

Honeywell completed the spin-off of Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. on October 30, 2025.
Both the parent and the spin-off commenced regular-way trading from October 30, 2025. On the first day of trading, parent lost 0.84%, while spin-off gained 0.29%.
On an overall basis, HON (consolidated) gained 2.6% since the spin-off announcement on October 8, 2024, underperforming the S&P 500’s which gained 18.6% gain over the same period.

Ercros: Regulatory Green Light, Shareholder Hurdles Ahead

CNMC approval with commitments de-risks the regulatory leg, shifting focus to shareholder acceptance and the Ministry’s decision; the spread has compressed but still offers short-dated, event-driven upside.
Ercros’s weak H1 performance and cyclical trough distort multiples; the €3.505 offer equates to ~9x EBITDA today but nearer 6× on normalized levels, consistent with control transaction benchmarks.
Base-Case IRR exceeds 100% annualized if settled by December; downside anchored by €2.56 break price, while any price bump toward €4.40 adds optionality without being part of the base case.

DuPont De Nemours, Inc. (NYSE: DD) To Separate Its Electronics Business on Nov 1

DuPont will separate its Electronics unit as Qnity Electronics Inc. on Nov 1, 2025, creating two focused platforms – a high-growth semiconductor materials business and a steadier diverfied industrial company
Qnity launches with ~$4.3B sales, ~29% margins, strong semiconductor exposure but higher leverage and cyclicality
We value Qnity at $106/share (17.2× FY26E EBITDA) and DuPont (ex-Qnity) at $47.5/share (13.0× FY26E EBITDA).

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Oct 31

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Sumitomo Corp To Buy Out Minorities in SCSK (9719 JP) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Sumitomo Corp To Buy Out Minorities in SCSK (9719 JP)
[Japan M&A] Sumi Elec Buys Out Minorities in Sumitomo Riko (5191 JP) For ¥2,600 – Low Price/Multiple
Jardine Matheson’s Underperformance Post Mandarin Offer
[Japan M&A] Daiwa House Buyout of Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP) At ¥9,760 – A Good Exit
Hyosung Heavy — Ceiling Reversion Setup, ~0.7x DTV Outflow. Totally off the Market’s Radar
[Japan M&A] Fujitsu Buys Out Brainpad (3655) At Near 100% Premium
BrainPad (3655 JP): Fujitsu (6702 JP)’s 100% Premium Tender Offer
Samsung Electronics: Block Deal Sale of 1.8 Trillion Won for Inheritance Tax Payment by Lee Family
Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP): Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP)’s Attractive Tender Offer at JPY9,760
Sumitomo Riko (5191 JP): Sumitomo Electric (5802 JP)’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely Done

[Japan M&A] Sumitomo Corp To Buy Out Minorities in SCSK (9719 JP)

Yesterday after the close, Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) announced it would buy out minorities in Scsk Corp (9719 JP) at ¥5,700/share.
As a “parent takes out subsidiary” deal, this was not unexpected at some point in time. The register looks like there may be a number of people who expected that.
This gets done pretty easily. It is not a bad price.

[Japan M&A] Sumi Elec Buys Out Minorities in Sumitomo Riko (5191 JP) For ¥2,600 – Low Price/Multiple

Today with the earnings announcement, Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) announced it would buy out minorities in Sumitomo Riko Company (5191 JP), its rubber products subsidiary.
The price is low, and especially so when one considers the significant net receivables and inventory number (about 2mos of revenue, but one turn of annual EBITDA).
Crossholders and insiders, however, own nearly 15% of the company, and that makes blocking this deal difficult, despite its low price, and lack of synergies considered in the price.

Jardine Matheson’s Underperformance Post Mandarin Offer

Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) announced on the 17th October an Offer for Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)‘s minorities at US$3.35/share.
This is a clean, full, “dull” Offer. And MAND is trading super tight to terms at ~2.1% gross, with possible payment (my estimate) late Feb 2026.
Proceeds from the OCB sale will be US$925mn. And taking out MAND’s minorities will set Matheson back ~US$1bn. Yet the market is now assigning US$2.1bn less for Matheson’s stub ops.

[Japan M&A] Daiwa House Buyout of Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP) At ¥9,760 – A Good Exit

Today partway through the day, Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP), Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP), and Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP) announced Daiwa House would buy out Sumitomo Densetsu for ¥9,760/share.
Sumitomo Electric will sell its stake to the company ¥6,877/share. Minorities get 11.9x Mar26 EBITDA. The Bidder is buying at 9.9x.
At an ATH, and a nice premium, and 3x book, this looks like a pretty good takeout price. Daiwa House has plans for it.

Hyosung Heavy — Ceiling Reversion Setup, ~0.7x DTV Outflow. Totally off the Market’s Radar

Hyosung Heavy (298040 KS) near 29% weight; 10ppt ceiling cut = ~0.6–0.7x DTV outflow. Unlike other ETF heavies, flows here bite — real tradeable setup.
Hyosung Heavy ceiling cut hits Dec 12 rebalance unless >30% earlier; iSelect enforces next‑day, as seen with Isupetasys (right today) breach in KODEX AI Semicon ETF clipped to 20%.
Hyosung Heavy again ripping today; watch 30% breach — triggers next‑day ceiling cut. Play the reversion, hedge with other hot AI power basket names.

[Japan M&A] Fujitsu Buys Out Brainpad (3655) At Near 100% Premium

Today after the close, Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP), with 110,000 employees, announced a buyout of a small “labour-intensive” AI/ML sysdev business with 200+ data scientists.
Brainpad Inc (3655 JP) is being bought out from its co-founders and others at a near-100% premium. Not an all-time high, but not a low price.
Somewhat heavily shorted, this will trade tight, but I expect nobody will come over the top.

BrainPad (3655 JP): Fujitsu (6702 JP)’s 100% Premium Tender Offer

Brainpad Inc (3655 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) at JPY2,706, a 100.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and is above the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range.
The huge takeover premium resulted from an auction. The tender offer runs from 31 October to 15 December (30 business days). This is a done deal.

Samsung Electronics: Block Deal Sale of 1.8 Trillion Won for Inheritance Tax Payment by Lee Family

It was announced today that Samsung’s Lee family members are selling about 1.8 trillion won worth of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) through an after-hours block trade.
The purpose of the block trade is for the Lee family members to pay for inheritance taxes and repay stock-backed loans.
The block trade selling level is between 102,200 won and 104,100 won, representing a discount of 0% to 1.8% compared to the closing price of the day.

Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP): Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP)’s Attractive Tender Offer at JPY9,760

Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Daiwa House Industry (1925 JP) at JPY9,760, a 28.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
The process is deficient due to the lack of an auction and the offeror’s reliance on less than 100% voter turnout to pass the EGM share consolidation vote.
Nevertheless, the offer is attractive, as it represents an all-time high and is above the high end of the IFA DCF valuation range.

Sumitomo Riko (5191 JP): Sumitomo Electric (5802 JP)’s Tender Offer Is Light but Likely Done

Sumitomo Riko Company (5191 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) at JPY2,600, a 20.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is arguably attractive as it is above the midpoint of the special committee/target IFA DCF valuation range and represents an all-time high.
The offer is light as it implies a discount to peer multiples. However, the significant cross-holders on the register suggest that the minimum tendering condition should be met.

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Oct 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: ANE (9956 HK): Centurium/Temasek’s Clean Offer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

ANE (9956 HK): Centurium/Temasek’s Clean Offer
SCSK Corp (9719 JP): Sumitomo (8053 JP)’s Attractive Tender Offer at JPY5,700
Sanil Electric Poised for Pop on Nov 20 KOSPI200 Ad‑Hoc (HD Hyundai Merger)
AUB Group (AUB AU) Opens Books To EQT’s NBIO
SK Square: Selling Its Stake in 11st to SK Planet
SCSK Corp (9719 JP): Sumitomo (8053 JP)’s Rumoured Privatisation Offer
Groww IPO: Growwing Fast; Index Inclusions Will Be Sloww; Small Floww
Cipla-Eli Lilly Deal: Strategic Masterstroke or Margin Mirage?
Bavarian Nordic: Final Offer, Tight Math
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) To Spin Off Orthopaedics Business

ANE (9956 HK): Centurium/Temasek’s Clean Offer

After ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, an Offer from PE outfit Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, was expected.
And this is what unfolded. Centurium, together with Temasek and Singapore-based asset manager True Light, are offering HK$12.18/share (best & final) via a Scheme, a 48.54% premium to undisturbed.
A scrip alternative is present (mix & match). This is a pre-conditional Offer: it requires SAMR signing off. The FA is JPM. This should help smooth over the reg process.

SCSK Corp (9719 JP): Sumitomo (8053 JP)’s Attractive Tender Offer at JPY5,700

In response to the Nikkei report, Scsk Corp (9719 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) at JPY5,700, a 31.5% premium to the last close.
The offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions, is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and represents an all-time high.
An attractive offer facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 30 October to 12 December, with payment commencing from 19 December.

Sanil Electric Poised for Pop on Nov 20 KOSPI200 Ad‑Hoc (HD Hyundai Merger)

HD Hyundai merger: both legs in index, Mipo delists, slot opens — one new name gets added to KOSPI200 via ad‑hoc.
Sanil Electric (062040 KS) to replace HD Mipo pre‑Dec review. If DTV settles back into the 500–600k range, then KS200 ETFs will need to scoop ~0.3–0.4x DTV on Nov 26.
Better to front‑run KRX; with AI power trade still hot, Nov 20 announcement likely sparks outsized price action vs waiting for rebalance print.

AUB Group (AUB AU) Opens Books To EQT’s NBIO

AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), which operates a network of insurance “matchmakers”, has announced a NBIO, via a Scheme, from EQT @ A$45/share, a ~40% premium to undisturbed.
That indicative price is up from $43/share proposed on the 13th September (but not made public).
AUB’s board has opted to open its books to EQT, on an exclusive basis, for six weeks. Tentatively, that expires on or around the 9th December.

SK Square: Selling Its Stake in 11st to SK Planet

On 29 October, SK Square announced that it is selling its stake in 11st to SK Planet. This is likely to have a slightly negative impact on SK Square.
Given SK Planet’s limited financial resources, it is likely that SK Square will provide funding to SK Planet through a capital increase.
However, the biggest factor driving SK Square’s share price right now is the continued surge in SK Hynix’s share price.

SCSK Corp (9719 JP): Sumitomo (8053 JP)’s Rumoured Privatisation Offer

Today, the Nikkei reported that Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) plans to privatise Scsk Corp (9719 JP) through a tender offer. Both shares were placed on a trading halt.
The Nikkei states that the total acquisition cost would be around JPY800 billion, based on an arbitrary assumption that the offer will be around 20% above the undisturbed price.
The privatisation is strategically sensible. The rumoured offer price of JPY5,109.60 is attractive compared to peer multiples and would represent an all-time high.

Groww IPO: Growwing Fast; Index Inclusions Will Be Sloww; Small Floww

By Brian Freitas

Groww (1573648D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 663.23m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$752m at a valuation of US$7bn.
The price band has been set at INR 95-100/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices. Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in June 2026 but flow will be small given the low float.

Cipla-Eli Lilly Deal: Strategic Masterstroke or Margin Mirage?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) signed an exclusive distribution and promotion agreement with Eli Lilly on 23 October 2025 to market tirzepatide under the brand name Yurpeak in India.
The deal positions Cipla as a first mover in India’s nascent GLP-1 obesity care segment, projected to grow 40x by 2030.
Financially modest but strategically transformative, the deal anchors Cipla’s entry into obesity therapeutics and sets the stage for a broader GLP-1 platform spanning branded and generic drugs.

Bavarian Nordic: Final Offer, Tight Math

Bidders Nordic Capital and Permira raised their offer to DKK 250/share (from DKK 233), but ATP’s 10% block and limited irrevocables complicate closing.
Gross spread has widened to 5.71% (DKK 236.5 close on 28 Oct), reflecting rising uncertainty. Implied success probability is now ~76.5%.
High upside if completed, but downside risk remains to pre-deal levels (DKK 192.5). Time to settlement is short, pushing annualized return to ~151%.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) To Spin Off Orthopaedics Business