In today’s briefing:
- Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s NBIO Was Rightly Rejected, but This Is Not Done Yet
- Pacific Current (PAC AU)’s Reverse Merger With River Riles Roc Capital
- Quiddity ASX Sep26 Results: 92% of Predictions Correct; More Changes for ASX 300 than We Expected
- Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (8 Sep 2026)
- Pacific Current (PAC AU): A Strategic Review as Roc Partners Emerges as a Jilted Suitor
- Mineral Resources’ Ambition Raises Concerns
- WRKR Ltd – Contracted user adoption delayed but happening
Ingenia (INA AU): Warburg’s NBIO Was Rightly Rejected, but This Is Not Done Yet
- Ingenia Communities (INA AU) has rejected a non-binding proposal from Warburg Pincus at A$4.75, a 30.1% premium to the last close and a 11.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The timing is opportunistic, and the offer is light as it implies no control premium and is below the 52-week high and sell-side price targets.
- The proposal is conditional on abandoning the Peet Ltd (PPC AU) offer, which is facilitated by a fiduciary-out clause. An offer around A$5.15 is needed to test the Board’s resolve.
Pacific Current (PAC AU)’s Reverse Merger With River Riles Roc Capital
- Back in 2023, asset manager Pacific Current (PAC AU) fielded Offers from Regal and GQG, neither of which gained traction: GQG Mulls Offer As Pacific Current Balks At Regal’s NBIO
- River Capital, which initially teamed up with Regal, steadily mopped up shares, and currently holds ~43%. Late-August, River and PAC announced a backdoor merger via new shares at A$13/share.
- ROC Capital pitched an Offer for PAC back in May. Apparently River sat in on negotiations. Roc reckons River used those discussions to its advantage. PAC sees it otherwise.
Quiddity ASX Sep26 Results: 92% of Predictions Correct; More Changes for ASX 300 than We Expected
- The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 4th September 2026.
- There are 24 ADDs and 21 DELs collectively for ASX 20, ASX 50, ASX 100, ASX 200 and ASX 300.
- In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.
Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (8 Sep 2026)
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlights: In Australia, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
Pacific Current (PAC AU): A Strategic Review as Roc Partners Emerges as a Jilted Suitor
- In response to an AFR article, Pacific Current (PAC AU) belatedly disclosed that it rejected a non-binding proposal from Roc Partners in May 2026.
- PAC is currently undergoing a strategic review to consider River Capital’s proposal alongside a sale or delisting/liquidation of holdings.
- Both offers are unattractive. PAC is a cash box (A$9.23 per share) with the boutique portfolio providing option value (boutiques valued at FV P/NAV of 0.27x at last close).
Mineral Resources’ Ambition Raises Concerns
- Mineral Resources’ FY26 profit, a turnaround from an FY25 loss, beat expectations, but the market responded poorly to talk of expanding into another commodity and perhaps geography.
- Mineral Resources’ FY26 performance beat expectations The recommencement of dividends was the major surprise Possible move into copper, maybe offshore, spooked the market One broker’s valuation raises eyebrows
WRKR Ltd – Contracted user adoption delayed but happening
- Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
- WRK has released its FY26 result which was recently flagged in a quarterly update with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.4m (reported -$6.0m, RaaS was -$4.6m).
- Revenue was a touch higher than RaaS’s estimate at $16.2m, driven by higher Platform product development fees.
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