In today’s briefing:
- This Week in APAC ECM (Oct 4-10): Firmus Pulls ASX IPO; Moonshot Eyes USD 5bn; Jio Sets Price Band
- October 7 MTD Reply: A Paradoxical Setup for Hynix
- BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In
- Merger Arb Mondays (12 Oct) – Skyworth, Z Fin, OFX, Ingenia/Peet, Cleanaway, Reliance, Kakaku
- Transsion Holdings H Share Listing (2636 HK): Valuation Insights
- TSMC 3Q26 Preview: 2027 Price Increases Should Hold Margins; Further Share Upside from Here
- Jio Platforms IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Flow for India’s (Possibly) Largest IPO
- Aequitas ECM Weekly (12 October 2026)-Wuxi Bio, CIG, CKD, Infroneer, JIO, ESWIN, Tinci, Transsion
- Samsung Elec (005930 KS): Long 2x ETF Outflows Persist as Inverse Product Attracts Assets
- The Blade Weekly: AI Chip Financings Pass US$150bn as OpenAI’s Revenue Lands US$20bn Below Reports
This Week in APAC ECM (Oct 4-10): Firmus Pulls ASX IPO; Moonshot Eyes USD 5bn; Jio Sets Price Band
- Firmus pulled its USD 5.5bn ASX IPO. AS Watson’s USD 30bn dual listing was reportedly delayed to 2027, and Moonshot reportedly eyes an HK IPO of up to USD 5bn.
- ESWIN, the week’s only HK listing, raised USD 319m and fell 1.0% on day one. Eight listings in the past month have a median return of -2.5% since IPO.
- On HKEX, one company filed an AP and three posted PHIPs. Transsion’s USD 428m A+H IPO lists on 15 Oct.
October 7 MTD Reply: A Paradoxical Setup for Hynix
- The MTD Reply may help Hynix secure dismissal, but its arguments on quarterly pricing upside and HBM’s outsized margins could reinforce peak out concerns and increase antitrust risk.
- Chey appears to be pushing back against HBM peak out concerns by accelerating capex and reinforcing management’s confidence in sustained HBM and AI demand.
- Hynix may accelerate ADR expansion ahead of the Solidigm IPO, using deeper US market ties as a shield against regulatory risk.
BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In
- Maki-San likely holds around 28% of BASE Inc (4477 JP), targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.
- SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.
- At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.
Merger Arb Mondays (12 Oct) – Skyworth, Z Fin, OFX, Ingenia/Peet, Cleanaway, Reliance, Kakaku
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations covered across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Skyworth (751 HK), OFX Group (OFX AU), Peet Ltd (PPC AU), Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU), Z Fin (1168 HK), Xin Yuan Enterprises (1748 HK), EQT Holdings (EQT AU).
- Lowest spreads: Kadoya Sesame Mills (2612 JP), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), FleetPartners Group (FPR AU), Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), Accent Group (AX1 AU), Gunma Bank (8334 JP).
Transsion Holdings H Share Listing (2636 HK): Valuation Insights
- Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (2636 HK), Africa’s largest smartphone seller, is seeking to raise up to US$429 million at an H Share offer price range of HK$35.30-HK$38.80.
- I discussed the H Share listing in Transsion Holdings H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
- While I have concerns around the fundamentals, the proposed AH discount is attractive on several fronts.
TSMC 3Q26 Preview: 2027 Price Increases Should Hold Margins; Further Share Upside from Here
- 3Q26 revenue is already reported at NT$1,494.2bn, about US$46.7bn, 2% above the top of the guide; the 15 October release turns on margins, the 4Q guide and 2027.
- We expect January 2027 price increases to roughly offset wider 2nm and overseas dilution, holding gross margin near 65-67%; 2027 capex is the bigger unknown.
- Target price NT$2,920 (15% upside): 26.9x 2026 EPS, reflecting what we see as a permanent re-rating since 2019; TSMC trades at 17.9x 2027 earnings versus 23.0x for big US tech.
Jio Platforms IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Flow for India’s (Possibly) Largest IPO
- Jio Platforms is looking to list later this month by selling 270m shares at up to INR 1119/share, raising INR 302bn (US$3.1bn) and valuing the company at INR 10,305bn (US$106.5bn).
- The small float (2.93% of shares out) will result in the stock missing Fast Entry to global indices. The pre-IPO lock-up expiry in April could result in global index inclusion.
- Jio Platforms Ltd (1797135D IN) will be added to some local indices in March, though inclusion in the headline indices will need to wait till at least June.
Aequitas ECM Weekly (12 October 2026)-Wuxi Bio, CIG, CKD, Infroneer, JIO, ESWIN, Tinci, Transsion
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, Jio Platforms is set to launch its US$3bn+ offering this week, while some listings continue to trickle through in Hong Kong.
- On the placement front, the HK flows picked up post the holidays and we had a look at a few of the upcoming lockup expiries.
Samsung Elec (005930 KS): Long 2x ETF Outflows Persist as Inverse Product Attracts Assets
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) gained 3.3% in September and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 4.6%, while combined long-ETF AUM remained broadly steady, declining 0.9%.
- All seven long-leveraged ETFs recorded unit redemptions, with net outflows reaching KRW 200bn in September and continuing in early October.
- In contrast, the inverse ETF’s unit count rose 90% and AUM increased 62%, despite the product losing 14.7% in September.
The Blade Weekly: AI Chip Financings Pass US$150bn as OpenAI’s Revenue Lands US$20bn Below Reports
- Financing plans for Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI chip orders totaled more than US$150bn, as the FT put OpenAI’s revenue run rate at about US$50bn.
- Laminate and power chip prices rose, and Nanya told customers DRAM prices will rise up to 20% as Micron’s Taiwan union won a strike vote.
- Foxconn booked Taiwan’s first NT$1tn revenue month and TSMC beat its 3Q guidance, while Samsung reportedly plans to cut 4Q phone output by up to 30%.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
