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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: Kum Yang, ALT Semicon, Samsung C&T and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX’s Revised CFD Oversight Guidelines & Ongoing Suspicious Incidents
  • ALT Co IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023


KRX’s Revised CFD Oversight Guidelines & Ongoing Suspicious Incidents

By Sanghyun Park

  • The important point is that the regulations also incorporate a provision mandating the disclosure of the actual end traders’ identities when brokerages engage in CFD transactions disguised as proprietary trading.
  • Recent suspicious incidents raise concerns because they are carried out through brokerages’ proprietary trading practices, making them relatively more difficult for local regulatory authorities to detect and monitor.
  • We need to closely monitor the market’s abnormal volatility following the strengthened new rules on CFDs and carefully consider the setup for responding to these changes.

ALT Co IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • ALT’s IPO price has been determined a 25,000 won, which is 22% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • A total of 1,937 institutional investors participated in the IPO offering with a competition demand ratio of 1,836 to 1.
  • Our base case valuation of ALT is market cap of 299 billion won or 33,365 won per share, which represents 33% higher than the IPO price range of 25,000 won.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 3Q 2023.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 22 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 16 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
  • We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.

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Daily Brief India: ReNew Energy Global , Azure Power Global Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Renew Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 14 Jul 2023
  • Azure Power – Event Flash – Auditor Change, New CEO/CFO And Delisting – Lucror Analytics


Renew Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

We view ReNew Energy Global as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. The company is India’s largest renewable power producer (13.7 GW of total capacity and 8 GW of operating capacity at end-March 2023), and enjoys good access to capital. It benefits from stable cash flows and priority dispatch to the grid (e.g. solar), resulting in a robust business profile. The key risk is counterparty payments (DISCOMs). The merger with RMG Acquisition Corp II, a Nasdaq-listed SPAC, has increased ReNew’s transparency, reporting standards, checks and balances as well as cash proceeds to fund capex. The credit is weighed down by high leverage and the company’s aggressive expansion plan to triple its capacity by FYE 2024-25, with capex expected to surge 3-4x to USD 1.5-2.4 bn.

Our Credit Bias is “Stable”, due to the robust nature of the utilities business.

Controversies are “Immaterial”. The ESG Impact on Credit is “Moderately Positive” in our view, due to the nature of ReNew’s business (renewable energy). This should facilitate better access to capital, especially from ESG-minded institutional investors.


Weekly Wrap – 14 Jul 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Central China Real Estate
  2. Anton Oilfield
  3. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  4. Agung Podomoro Land
  5. Hopson Development

and more…


Azure Power – Event Flash – Auditor Change, New CEO/CFO And Delisting – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Azure Power’s change of auditor, appointment of new CEO and CFO, and the company’s delisting are credit negative in our view. The company had previously informed onshore lenders that the audit of FY 2021-22 results was nearly completed, and that Azure might be able to avoid being delisted. However, auditor SR Batliboi & Co’s resignation does not bode well for the company. The new auditor and new management will take time to get up to speed on Azure and the results. 


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Daily Brief Indonesia: Siloam International Hospitals, Azure Power Global Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) – Harnessing Outward Tourism with Greater Complexity
  • Weekly Wrap – 14 Jul 2023


Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) – Harnessing Outward Tourism with Greater Complexity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • The recent announcement that Indonesia will allow foreign doctors to operate in Indonesia should benefit listed healthcare players with Siloam International Hospitals being a key beneficiary of the move.
  • The company has come out of the pandemic stronger and more profitable with an ongoing focus on increasing the complexity of treatments and the efficiency of operations. 
  • Siloam International Hospitals will continue to open 1-2 new hospitals each year but it only utilises 3,000 out of 7,000 bed capacity leaving room for organic growth. Valuations are attractive.

Weekly Wrap – 14 Jul 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Central China Real Estate
  2. Anton Oilfield
  3. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  4. Agung Podomoro Land
  5. Hopson Development

and more…


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: Tencent Music, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, Azure Power Global Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Tencent Music (TME US, SELL, TP US$6) Preview]: Competition Is Still a Concern, Maintain SELL
  • [Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$35) Preview]: Retail and Summer Travelling Are Two Catalysts
  • Weekly Wrap – 14 Jul 2023


[Tencent Music (TME US, SELL, TP US$6) Preview]: Competition Is Still a Concern, Maintain SELL

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect the 2Q23 online music revenue growth to be 34.4% YoY, driven by more promotions to drive up users’ retentions;
  • We anticipate the 2Q23 social entertainment growth rate to be (12.9%) YoY, due to intense competition and strengthened regulatory in live streaming. 
  • We expect TME’s 2Q23’s rev./non-GAAP net income to be (1.8%)/ (3.9%) vs cons. We maintain SELL because of continuous pressure from Bytedance’s Soda Music, Wechat Video Account and Kuaishou.

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$35) Preview]: Retail and Summer Travelling Are Two Catalysts

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect Atour to report 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 94% YoY and 259% YoY, which is 22% and 20% above BBG consensus respectively. 
  • We expect Atour’s RevPAR in 3Q23/2023 increase to 110%/114% of corresponding 2019 level from previous estimate at 105%/112%. 
  • We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and maintain TP at US$35 because the operational gains has been mitigated by FX loss in terms of valuation

Weekly Wrap – 14 Jul 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Central China Real Estate
  2. Anton Oilfield
  3. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  4. Agung Podomoro Land
  5. Hopson Development

and more…


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 7th): Lynas Rare Earth and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 7th): Lynas Rare Earth, Northern Star Re, Iluka Resources, Worley
  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 14th): Tencent, AIA, Xiaomi


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 7th): Lynas Rare Earth, Northern Star Re, Iluka Resources, Worley

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Lynas Rare Earth, Northern Star Re, Iluka Resources, Worley, Csl, ANZ, Aurizon.

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 14th): Tencent, AIA, Xiaomi

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 14th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), CK Asset (1113 HK).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 3Q 2023.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 22 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 16 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
  • We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief TMT/Internet: ALT Semicon, Kinatico and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • ALT Co IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • Kinatico Ltd – Maiden FY23 Profit of $0.2m, Ahead of Forecast


ALT Co IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • ALT’s IPO price has been determined a 25,000 won, which is 22% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • A total of 1,937 institutional investors participated in the IPO offering with a competition demand ratio of 1,836 to 1.
  • Our base case valuation of ALT is market cap of 299 billion won or 33,365 won per share, which represents 33% higher than the IPO price range of 25,000 won.

Kinatico Ltd – Maiden FY23 Profit of $0.2m, Ahead of Forecast

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People” regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • KYP has announced in a flash update that it expects to report FY23 NPAT greater than $0.2m, marking its first profitable full year since listing.
  • This is ahead of our FY23 NPAT forecast of $0.14m. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 3Q 2023.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 22 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 16 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
  • We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Utilities: ReNew Energy Global , Azure Power Global Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Renew Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 14 Jul 2023
  • Azure Power – Event Flash – Auditor Change, New CEO/CFO And Delisting – Lucror Analytics


Renew Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

We view ReNew Energy Global as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale. The company is India’s largest renewable power producer (13.7 GW of total capacity and 8 GW of operating capacity at end-March 2023), and enjoys good access to capital. It benefits from stable cash flows and priority dispatch to the grid (e.g. solar), resulting in a robust business profile. The key risk is counterparty payments (DISCOMs). The merger with RMG Acquisition Corp II, a Nasdaq-listed SPAC, has increased ReNew’s transparency, reporting standards, checks and balances as well as cash proceeds to fund capex. The credit is weighed down by high leverage and the company’s aggressive expansion plan to triple its capacity by FYE 2024-25, with capex expected to surge 3-4x to USD 1.5-2.4 bn.

Our Credit Bias is “Stable”, due to the robust nature of the utilities business.

Controversies are “Immaterial”. The ESG Impact on Credit is “Moderately Positive” in our view, due to the nature of ReNew’s business (renewable energy). This should facilitate better access to capital, especially from ESG-minded institutional investors.


Weekly Wrap – 14 Jul 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Central China Real Estate
  2. Anton Oilfield
  3. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  4. Agung Podomoro Land
  5. Hopson Development

and more…


Azure Power – Event Flash – Auditor Change, New CEO/CFO And Delisting – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Azure Power’s change of auditor, appointment of new CEO and CFO, and the company’s delisting are credit negative in our view. The company had previously informed onshore lenders that the audit of FY 2021-22 results was nearly completed, and that Azure might be able to avoid being delisted. However, auditor SR Batliboi & Co’s resignation does not bode well for the company. The new auditor and new management will take time to get up to speed on Azure and the results. 


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Kum Yang and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX’s Revised CFD Oversight Guidelines & Ongoing Suspicious Incidents


KRX’s Revised CFD Oversight Guidelines & Ongoing Suspicious Incidents

By Sanghyun Park

  • The important point is that the regulations also incorporate a provision mandating the disclosure of the actual end traders’ identities when brokerages engage in CFD transactions disguised as proprietary trading.
  • Recent suspicious incidents raise concerns because they are carried out through brokerages’ proprietary trading practices, making them relatively more difficult for local regulatory authorities to detect and monitor.
  • We need to closely monitor the market’s abnormal volatility following the strengthened new rules on CFDs and carefully consider the setup for responding to these changes.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars