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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief United States: Terra, Triumph Bancorp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Fighting for the Soul of Crypto
  • 90: Adventures In Accounting: Triumph Bancorp ($TBK) Charge-Off Analysis

Fighting for the Soul of Crypto

By Michael McCarty

  • FTX collapsed causing the crypto market to fall into shambles.
  • FUD (Fear, uncertainty, and doubt) are spreading like wildfire throughout the industry and people have every right to be scared.
  • The fallout of the FTX collapse will be the battle for the soul of crypto. 

90: Adventures In Accounting: Triumph Bancorp ($TBK) Charge-Off Analysis

By Watchlist Investing

  • Included in bank earnings is a provision for loan losses.
  • In a perfect world, management would know exactly which loans would go bad and how much money they would lose on those loans.
  • In reality, estimates are required. Like insurance companies, banks typically apply a statistical model based on the risk rating classification of their loan book plus any specific reserves.


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Daily Brief Financials: JPY, Agile Property Holdings, Terra, Triumph Bancorp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • USD/JPY Target Undershoot
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 02 December 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Fighting for the Soul of Crypto
  • 90: Adventures In Accounting: Triumph Bancorp ($TBK) Charge-Off Analysis

USD/JPY Target Undershoot

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our high conviction USD sell call at DXY 114/113 comprised the AUD, ZAR, Euro, KRW and JPY. Our focus today is the USD/JPY undershooting our 135 target.
  • AUD is near our 0.6850 but could stretch to 0.69. USD/ZAR met the 17.10 PT. Euro target remains at 1.0650 just under the 1.07 MT resistance. USD/KRW 1,298 PT met.
  • DXY 103 downside target with risk to 102 while aligning the US 10yr yield target of 3.50%/45%. NFP is the swing factor for yield today.

Chinese Property Weekly – 02 December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Fighting for the Soul of Crypto

By Michael McCarty

  • FTX collapsed causing the crypto market to fall into shambles.
  • FUD (Fear, uncertainty, and doubt) are spreading like wildfire throughout the industry and people have every right to be scared.
  • The fallout of the FTX collapse will be the battle for the soul of crypto. 

90: Adventures In Accounting: Triumph Bancorp ($TBK) Charge-Off Analysis

By Watchlist Investing

  • Included in bank earnings is a provision for loan losses.
  • In a perfect world, management would know exactly which loans would go bad and how much money they would lose on those loans.
  • In reality, estimates are required. Like insurance companies, banks typically apply a statistical model based on the risk rating classification of their loan book plus any specific reserves.


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Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, JPY and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba Privatisation In Trouble
  • USD/JPY Target Undershoot

Toshiba Privatisation In Trouble

By Travis Lundy

  • After a few successive rounds of Management and Board Proposals were shot down, last March Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) embarked on a process to generate a privatisation proposal.
  • The result has ended up with one, maybe two privatisation proposals in the offing. The “leading” candidate’s proposal will not fly as proposed. The other is MIA for the moment.
  • That leaves a complicated situation. Activists+active holders are stuck with Toshiba and vice versa. They want change, and out, and financiers do too. Change happens. The question is how.

USD/JPY Target Undershoot

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our high conviction USD sell call at DXY 114/113 comprised the AUD, ZAR, Euro, KRW and JPY. Our focus today is the USD/JPY undershooting our 135 target.
  • AUD is near our 0.6850 but could stretch to 0.69. USD/ZAR met the 17.10 PT. Euro target remains at 1.0650 just under the 1.07 MT resistance. USD/KRW 1,298 PT met.
  • DXY 103 downside target with risk to 102 while aligning the US 10yr yield target of 3.50%/45%. NFP is the swing factor for yield today.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 25th): Mineral Resource and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 25th): Mineral Resource, QBE Insurance, Rio Tinto, South32
  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Dec 2nd): Tencent, AIA, PetroChina

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 25th): Mineral Resource, QBE Insurance, Rio Tinto, South32

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 25th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resource, QBE Insurance, Rio Tinto, South32, Westpac, ANZ, Woodside.

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Dec 2nd): Tencent, AIA, PetroChina

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Dec 2nd based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), China Petroleum & Chemical (386 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), China Petroleum & Chemical (386 HK).

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Daily Brief ESG: Again and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Again, It Is the BOJ’s ETF Issue that Makes Us Think

Again, It Is the BOJ’s ETF Issue that Makes Us Think

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Although the stock split doesn’t raise the intrinsic value of the stock, the stock price is likely to rise on the speculation that future purchases into the NISA are expected.
  • As cross-shareholdings decline, the companies are actively engaging in IR activities with individual investors to secure shareholders who share the company’s position against foreign shareholders who are increasing their presence.
  • Some believe that NISA will be used as receptacle for the disposal of BOJ’s ETF holdings, but companies may hope that the silent shareholder hold ETFs as long as possible.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Volume and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas

Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Volume picked up on Tuesday, 29th November, just slightly below the 15th November volume, the previous buying climax.
  • Wednesday’s Volume fell 10% with new price highs.
  • The erratic rather than trending Volume without capitulation volume on the 31st October price lows are hallmarks of a bear market rally.

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Daily Brief Private Markets: HuffPost Investor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • HuffPost Investor, Binance Join US$15.5M Series A+ Round of Fraud Detection Startup FrankieOne
  • Igloo Scores US$27M More to Extend Series B Financing Round to US$46M

HuffPost Investor, Binance Join US$15.5M Series A+ Round of Fraud Detection Startup FrankieOne

By e27

  • FrankieOne, a global platform connecting customers to multiple identity verification and fraud detection vendors via one API, has added US$15.5 million to its Series A+ round.
  • The new tranche will allow FrankieOne to expand its business across Asia Pacific and North America.

  • Founded in 2019 by Simon Costello and Aaron Chipper, FrankieOne is an identity and fraud detection engine helping companies onboard and protect their customers.


Igloo Scores US$27M More to Extend Series B Financing Round to US$46M

By e27

  • Igloo provides “competitively-priced” insurance for delivery riders in Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines, and Vietnam
  • Singapore-headquartered insurtech startup Igloo announced an additional US$27 million to close its Series B round at US$46 million
  • The additional funds will provide Igloo with a comfortable multi-year runway

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Daily Brief ECM: Skymark IPO – Valuation and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Skymark IPO – Valuation
  • Pre-IPO MedSci Healthcare Holdings – The Investment Logic, the Business Analysis and the Risks
  • Analog Devices Inc: New SPoE PESE & PD Solutions & Other Drivers
  • Gap Inc: Gap Store On Amazon & Other Developments
  • Ross Stores: Store Additions & Other Drivers

Skymark IPO – Valuation

By Mio Kato

  • Skymark is a little difficult to value given wide dispersions in peer multiples and earnings recovery trajectories. 
  • However, on balance we believe the issue looks to be on the cheap side. 
  • In addition, there are several quirks to the balance sheet, not all of which are negative.

Pre-IPO MedSci Healthcare Holdings – The Investment Logic, the Business Analysis and the Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The large physician network is actually the cornerstone for MedSci Healthcare (MHH HK)’s precision omni-channel marketing solutions and RWS solutions, and also the key to support the overall investment logic.
  • In fierce competition, how to retain physician network for a long time, convert them into business value continuously and achieve the high growth trend expected by the market is challenging.
  • In terms of valuation, MedSci’s valuation could be higher than Medlive due to its stronger physician platform solutions business and medical professional network, but could be lower than HUAYIWANG. 

Analog Devices Inc: New SPoE PESE & PD Solutions & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Analog Devices delivered another all-around beat in the recent quarterly result.
  • In Communications, Analog Devices expanded its 5G radio systems leadership with its transceiver portfolio, winning some additional share at key suppliers.
  • We provide the stock of Analog Devices with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Gap Inc: Gap Store On Amazon & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Gap delivered a strong set of results in the quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The company has taken steps to maximize profitability and cash flow while rebalancing and lowering inventory to drive short-term and long-term improvements across its entire business.
  • However, the company is proving strength in lifestyle segments, which are growing at an accelerated rate in the current market.

Ross Stores: Store Additions & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ross Stores’ results were well above market expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings as it increased storewide values.
  • On the other hand, given their third-quarter sales growth and enhanced holiday assortments, they face their easiest sales and earnings comparisons in the fourth quarter.
  • We maintain our ‘Hold’ rating on Ross Stores with a revised target price.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Medco Energi

Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy, Medco Energi

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Stocks Holds Gains Head of Jobs; Samurai Blues – Giant Killers (Again !) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Stocks Holds Gains Head of Jobs; Samurai Blues – Giant Killers (Again !)
  • Covid Lockdowns Set to Snap China’s Car Sales Winning Streak
  • China’s Property Support Seen as Helping State-Owned, Quality Private Developers

Good Morning Japan | Stocks Holds Gains Head of Jobs; Samurai Blues – Giant Killers (Again !)

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: Stocks consolidated ahead of Jobs; UST yeild down, USD weaker; Fed’s favorite inflation indicator slows; China showing COVID-19 flexibility; TESLA delivers 1st Semi Truck
  • JAPAN: World Cup: Samurai Blues slay another European giant defeating Spain.  This is the news in Japan today; Foreigners are now buyers in Japan; KDDI hooks up with Starlink

Covid Lockdowns Set to Snap China’s Car Sales Winning Streak

By Caixin Global

  • Factory sales to distributors of passenger cars in China, the world’s largest automobile market, are on track to decline in November
  • Retail sales of passenger cars also fell during the first twenty days of November, dropping 4% year-on-year to 859,000 units, according to the association
  • Last month, factory sales of passenger cars rose 11% year-on-year, extending a deceleration from June when growth hit 42.3% due to easing of Covid outbreaks and government tax benefits

China’s Property Support Seen as Helping State-Owned, Quality Private Developers

By Caixin Global

  • China’s latest helping hand to the property market is expected to benefit state-owned and quality private developers.
  • Allowing developers to raise money on the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stock markets could help firms get their hands on fresh cash and acquire assets from their peers that have defaulted
  • The new measures, announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) in a Monday Q&A, allow such share sales for purposes including debt repayments and acquisitions

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