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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 09
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 7th): ZTE and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 7th): ZTE, Pharmaron Beijing, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Kingsoft, Fe Horizon, Smic
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 7th): ICBC, Tencent, Xiaomi

A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 7th): ZTE, Pharmaron Beijing, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 91.6% as of Feb 7th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -0.5ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, consumer staples, communication services and offset by real estate, utilities, health care.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for ZTE, Pharmaron Beijing, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Shandong Gold Mining.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Kingsoft, Fe Horizon, Smic

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 28th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
  • We highlight short changes in Kingsoft/3888 HK, Fe Horizon/3360 HK, Smic/981 HK.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 7th): ICBC, Tencent, Xiaomi

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 7th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for ICBC/1398 HK, Tencent/700 HK, Xiaomi/1810 HK.

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): APAC Healthcare Weekly (Feb 9)- Daiichi Sankyo and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • APAC Healthcare Weekly (Feb 9)- Daiichi Sankyo, Astellas, SanBio, IHH, Henlius Biotech, Dr. Reddy’s

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Feb 9)- Daiichi Sankyo, Astellas, SanBio, IHH, Henlius Biotech, Dr. Reddy’s

By Tina Banerjee

  • Daiichi Sankyo has announced that Dato-DXd has been recommended for approval in EU. Astellas Pharma has submitted new drug application for conditional approval of Izervay for Geographic Atrophy in Japan.
  • SanBio has successfully secured the planned production yield for the second commercial production run to meet the approval conditions for the shipment of Akuugo suspension for intracranial implantation.
  • IHH Healthcare is seeking compensation of INR109.3B from Daiichi Sankyo for its stake buy in Fortis Healthcare. Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories entered licensing agreement with Shanghai Henlius Biotech for Darzalex biosimilar.

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief ESG: Investors Are Disappointed that ROE Is Not Improving and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Investors Are Disappointed that ROE Is Not Improving, yet Companies Can’t Disclose to Improve It

Investors Are Disappointed that ROE Is Not Improving, yet Companies Can’t Disclose to Improve It

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with high stock price valuations are often characterized by high foreign shareholdings and high return on capital, and valuations cannot be raised simply by disclosure without improving profitability.
  • Companies that proactively disclosed to TSE requests were those with large market capitalization and high foreign ownership. They usually try to use their cash effectively for investment and shareholder returns.
  • Raising profit margin is the best way to improve capital profitability. It’s clear that challenge lies in restructuring the business portfolio and reorganizing the industry, which few companies could do.

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief ECM: Guming Holding IPO Valuation Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Guming Holding IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Sionna Therapeutics Inc. (SION): RA Capital Backed Biotech IPO Booms in Debut
  • Titan America (TTAM): Spin-Off Successful as US Infrastructure Play Finds a Bid in IPO Aftermarket
  • Weekly Deals Digest (09 Feb) – Guming, Hexaware, Shibaura, Fuji Soft, Proto, Tohto, Pentamaster

Guming Holding IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Guming Holding is implied target price of HKD 13.70, which is 38%  higher than the high end of the IPO valuation range. 
  • Given the solid upside, we have a Positive view of this IPO. Our valuation sensitivity analysis suggests a range of HKD 11.09 to HKD 16.57 per share.  
  • Our base case valuation is based on 2025E P/S multiple of 3x, which is a 30% premium to the two closest comps (Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial and Helens International Holdings). 

Sionna Therapeutics Inc. (SION): RA Capital Backed Biotech IPO Booms in Debut

By IPO Boutique

  • Biopharmaceutical company on a mission to revolutionize the current treatment paradigm for cystic fibrosis opened its IPO 39% above issue.
  • The transaction was upsized from 8.8mm shares to 10.6mm shares and priced at the high-end of the range.
  • The IPOs that are more apt to see “follow-through” in the aftermarket are those with product candidates in later stage. This IPO does not meet that criteria. 

Titan America (TTAM): Spin-Off Successful as US Infrastructure Play Finds a Bid in IPO Aftermarket

By IPO Boutique

  • After the deal’s order book finished multiple-times oversubscribed, the company priced at the lower-half of the range and opened for a minimal gain. 
  • Buyers stepped in and rebounded the stock past its opening price and as high as $17.27 for a gain of 8% at its top-tick. 
  • Value investors found favor in the secular tailwinds of US infrastructure and the positives this company will be able to extract as a newly-formed company. 

Weekly Deals Digest (09 Feb) – Guming, Hexaware, Shibaura, Fuji Soft, Proto, Tohto, Pentamaster

By Arun George

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, Tecnos, Insignia Fin., Fosun Tourism, Fuji Soft, Shin Kong/Taishin
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, WH Group/Smithfield, CNBM, Japan Eyewear, Core Concept Tech
  • EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly (February 03 – 07): Implied Vol Does a Roundtrip

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, Tecnos, Insignia Fin., Fosun Tourism, Fuji Soft, Shin Kong/Taishin

By David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, WH Group/Smithfield, CNBM, Japan Eyewear, Core Concept Tech

By David Blennerhassett

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly (February 03 – 07): Implied Vol Does a Roundtrip

By John Ley

  • Implied vols rose 2.22 points in Monday’s sell off but round-tripped on the week, giving all the gains back by Friday. 
  • Rough start to the week amid tariff talk, Kospi dropping 2.64%.
  • At this level we expect implied vol to remain more reactive to price shocks than we have seen over the past two months.

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Feb-2025): TSMC tightens restrictions on Chinese IC firms. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Feb-2025): TSMC tightens restrictions on Chinese IC firms.
  • Clean Science and Technologies Ltd- Entering New Habitats
  • Sify Technologies – Exploring INR3,000 Crore Data Center IPO
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.9) – Vesync Is a High-Quality Company, VBP to Cover Retail Pharmacies
  • Spotify’s First Truly Profitable Year Was Great! But Will It Be EVEN MORE Profitable With The Expansion of Subscription Tiers & Monetization Of Video Content?
  • BRIS – Strong Numbers Just Out, Asset Growth High, Credit Costs Low, Fees Doing Well
  • Amgen: How Its $3.5 Billion Acquisition & Its High-Stakes Drug Pipeline Are Reshaping Its Growth Strategy
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill: Dealing With Digital Engagement Complexities & Other Key Challenges In Its Path!
  • ATI Inc.: Strategic Customer Partnerships & Capacity Utilization For Unmatched Impact!
  • Electronic Arts’ (EA) Plans to Capitalize on the Next Gaming Boom – The Live-Service Shift That Could Change the Industry Forever!

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Feb-2025): TSMC tightens restrictions on Chinese IC firms.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • TSMC implements restrictions on Chinese IC firms to follow US semiconductor controls, limiting access to advanced chip technologies.
  • Estonian defense delegation seeks collaboration with Taiwan on drones, highlighting growing partnership between the two countries.
  • ASE faces leadership uncertainty after chairman’s heir tragically passes away, impacting the future direction of the semiconductor giant.

Clean Science and Technologies Ltd- Entering New Habitats

By Nitin Mangal

  • Clean Science and Technology (CLEAN IN) is one of the leading chemical manufacturers globally of functionally critical specialty chemicals, Pharmaceutical Intermediates, and FMCG Chemicals.
  • It has embarked on a massive expansion by commissioning a new plant to manufacture HALS and is also spending additional capex to manufacture new products.
  • With forensics, we pay attention to excessive remuneration being paid to promoters, concentration risk from top customers, and increase in attrition of permanent employees.

Sify Technologies – Exploring INR3,000 Crore Data Center IPO

By Garvit Bhandari

  • Sify Technologies Ltd is planning to tap into the burgeoning demand for data centers in the India via a INR3,000 crore IPO
  • Sify has aggressive expansion plans in place with the aim to triple its data center capacity to more than 350 MW in the coming years.
  • We expect the value of standalone data center business to be more than the current market cap of Sify. In our view, IPO will unlock value for existing Sify shareholders.

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.9) – Vesync Is a High-Quality Company, VBP to Cover Retail Pharmacies

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Relevant departments are discussing the promotion of drugs included in VBP scope to enter retail pharmacies. However, the new business model will be detrimental to valuation performance for retail pharmacies.
  • The gap in the distribution of funds among biotech companies is rapidly widening. We suggest investors focus on leading biotech rather than take risks in areas with higher uncertainties.
  • Vesync is a good company. Due to the low liquidity, the Proposal presents a good opportunity for shareholders to exit. Considering its future growth potential, Share Alternative can be considered.

Spotify’s First Truly Profitable Year Was Great! But Will It Be EVEN MORE Profitable With The Expansion of Subscription Tiers & Monetization Of Video Content?

By Baptista Research

  • Spotify Technology S.A., a leading global audio streaming service, reported a strong conclusion to its fiscal year 2024, highlighted by record metrics across multiple fronts.
  • The company achieved its highest-ever fourth-quarter addition of Monthly Active Users (MAUs) and a substantial increase in premium subscribers, reflecting positively on its growth strategies and customer engagement efforts.
  • Positives from the performance include the notable growth in Spotify’s MAUs, adding 35 million users to reach 675 million, alongside 11 million new subscribers bringing the total to 263 million.

BRIS – Strong Numbers Just Out, Asset Growth High, Credit Costs Low, Fees Doing Well

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ) reported 11% QoQ net profit in 4Q24
  • Credit costs are down nearly 75% QoQ and annually, there are improving figures
  • Fee income growth is relatively new, ROA expansion can continue, to even >3% from this

Amgen: How Its $3.5 Billion Acquisition & Its High-Stakes Drug Pipeline Are Reshaping Its Growth Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • Amgen Inc. highlighted substantial achievements and growth potential for 2024 while outlining some challenges and strategies moving forward.
  • The company’s financial results reflected its success across various therapeutic areas, despite facing pricing pressures and patent expirations.
  • Revenue for the full year of 2024 reached $33.4 billion, reflecting a significant 19% increase year-over-year, driven mainly by a 23% volume increase across products.

Chipotle Mexican Grill: Dealing With Digital Engagement Complexities & Other Key Challenges In Its Path!

By Baptista Research

  • Chipotle Mexican Grill’s fourth-quarter 2024 results present a mixed picture of robust growth and operational challenges.
  • The company saw a 13% increase in sales, reaching $2.8 billion for the quarter, driven by a 5.4% increase in comparable sales and a notable 4% increase in transaction growth.
  • For the full fiscal year 2024, sales grew by 15% to $11.3 billion, with a 7.4% increase in comparable sales including over 5% transaction growth.

ATI Inc.: Strategic Customer Partnerships & Capacity Utilization For Unmatched Impact!

By Baptista Research

  • Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI) reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the full year.
  • Its performance highlights include a sequential revenue increase of 12% in the fourth quarter, reaching $1.2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA surpassing guidance at $210 million.
  • For the full year, ATI achieved nearly $4.4 billion in revenue, marking its highest since 2012, with a 5% year-over-year increase despite industry challenges.

Electronic Arts’ (EA) Plans to Capitalize on the Next Gaming Boom – The Live-Service Shift That Could Change the Industry Forever!

By Baptista Research

  • Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) had a mixed third-quarter fiscal 2025 performance, which presented both challenges and positive developments.
  • On the downside, the company faced a financial performance below expectations, notably with its key franchises.
  • The newly launched “Dragon Age: The Veilguard,” despite being well-received critically, did not perform as expected due to the competitive nature of the single-player RPG market.

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly (February 03 – 07): Implied Vol Does a Roundtrip

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly (February 03 – 07): Implied Vol Does a Roundtrip

By John Ley

  • Implied vols rose 2.22 points in Monday’s sell off but round-tripped on the week, giving all the gains back by Friday. 
  • Rough start to the week amid tariff talk, Kospi dropping 2.64%.
  • At this level we expect implied vol to remain more reactive to price shocks than we have seen over the past two months.

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • BRIS – Strong Numbers Just Out, Asset Growth High, Credit Costs Low, Fees Doing Well

BRIS – Strong Numbers Just Out, Asset Growth High, Credit Costs Low, Fees Doing Well

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ) reported 11% QoQ net profit in 4Q24
  • Credit costs are down nearly 75% QoQ and annually, there are improving figures
  • Fee income growth is relatively new, ROA expansion can continue, to even >3% from this

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief United States: Amgen Inc, Archer Daniels Midland Co, Enphase Energy, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Cummins Inc, Electronic Arts, Axalta Coating Systems, Estee Lauder Companies Cl A, Fox , Allegheny Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Amgen: How Its $3.5 Billion Acquisition & Its High-Stakes Drug Pipeline Are Reshaping Its Growth Strategy
  • Archer-Daniels-Midland: Strategic Simplification & Portfolio Optimization Fueling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!
  • Enphase Energy: Advancements in Inverter Technology to Reinforce A Robust Market Position!
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill: Dealing With Digital Engagement Complexities & Other Key Challenges In Its Path!
  • Cummins’ Efforts Towards Margin Expansion Paying Off? A Strategic Cost-Slaying Masterplan In Progress!
  • Electronic Arts’ (EA) Plans to Capitalize on the Next Gaming Boom – The Live-Service Shift That Could Change the Industry Forever!
  • Axalta Coating Systems: Can the Technological Advancements Strengthen Its Position In the Competitive Market?
  • Estée Lauder: Can Its Can Its Emerging Market Push & Portfolio Realignment Offset the China Slowdown?
  • Fox Corporation: Growth of Tubi Streaming As A Substantial Growth Driver!
  • ATI Inc.: Strategic Customer Partnerships & Capacity Utilization For Unmatched Impact!

Amgen: How Its $3.5 Billion Acquisition & Its High-Stakes Drug Pipeline Are Reshaping Its Growth Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • Amgen Inc. highlighted substantial achievements and growth potential for 2024 while outlining some challenges and strategies moving forward.
  • The company’s financial results reflected its success across various therapeutic areas, despite facing pricing pressures and patent expirations.
  • Revenue for the full year of 2024 reached $33.4 billion, reflecting a significant 19% increase year-over-year, driven mainly by a 23% volume increase across products.

Archer-Daniels-Midland: Strategic Simplification & Portfolio Optimization Fueling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!

By Baptista Research

  • Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) ended the fourth quarter and full year 2024 with adjusted earnings per share of $1.14 and $4.74, respectively.
  • Despite challenges, the company’s approach to operational efficiency has yielded some benefits across its network, reflected in fourth-quarter operating profit of $1.1 billion and $4.2 billion for the full year.
  • ADM achieved solid performance in particular segments, with increased crush volumes globally and operational efficiencies in North American soy processing.

Enphase Energy: Advancements in Inverter Technology to Reinforce A Robust Market Position!

By Baptista Research

  • Enphase Energy’s financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024 provides a comprehensive view of the company’s operational strengths and challenges.
  • Enphase reported quarterly revenue of $382.7 million and shipped approximately 2 million microinverters and 152 megawatt-hours of batteries.
  • These figures reflect strong sales, particularly of microinverters, although battery sales saw a decrease compared to the previous quarter.

Chipotle Mexican Grill: Dealing With Digital Engagement Complexities & Other Key Challenges In Its Path!

By Baptista Research

  • Chipotle Mexican Grill’s fourth-quarter 2024 results present a mixed picture of robust growth and operational challenges.
  • The company saw a 13% increase in sales, reaching $2.8 billion for the quarter, driven by a 5.4% increase in comparable sales and a notable 4% increase in transaction growth.
  • For the full fiscal year 2024, sales grew by 15% to $11.3 billion, with a 7.4% increase in comparable sales including over 5% transaction growth.

Cummins’ Efforts Towards Margin Expansion Paying Off? A Strategic Cost-Slaying Masterplan In Progress!

By Baptista Research

  • Cummins Inc. has delivered performance with a mix of achievement and challenge throughout the fiscal year 2024, as captured in the recent Q4 earnings discussion.
  • Cummins faces both tough industrial conditions and strategic evolutions but shows resilience with a solid financial footing and growth initiatives.
  • The company hit record highs in revenues, EBITDA, and earnings per share for the year.

Electronic Arts’ (EA) Plans to Capitalize on the Next Gaming Boom – The Live-Service Shift That Could Change the Industry Forever!

By Baptista Research

  • Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) had a mixed third-quarter fiscal 2025 performance, which presented both challenges and positive developments.
  • On the downside, the company faced a financial performance below expectations, notably with its key franchises.
  • The newly launched “Dragon Age: The Veilguard,” despite being well-received critically, did not perform as expected due to the competitive nature of the single-player RPG market.

Axalta Coating Systems: Can the Technological Advancements Strengthen Its Position In the Competitive Market?

By Baptista Research

  • Axalta Coating Systems reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, achieving record net sales and adjusted EBITDA levels.
  • Net sales for the fourth quarter amounted to $1.3 billion, marking a notable performance amid challenging macroeconomic conditions and foreign currency fluctuations.
  • This growth was predominantly driven by gains in the company’s Refinish and Light Vehicle segments, alongside contributions from strategic acquisitions like CoverFlexx.

Estée Lauder: Can Its Can Its Emerging Market Push & Portfolio Realignment Offset the China Slowdown?

By Baptista Research

  • The Estée Lauder Companies’ second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings highlighted several key elements of the company’s current performance and strategic directions.
  • On the performance front, the company reported a 6% decline in organic net sales, which fell at the higher end of its guidance.
  • Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were reported at $0.62, which exceeded expectations due to a better-than-anticipated gross margin expansion driven by a favorable mix in the skincare category.

Fox Corporation: Growth of Tubi Streaming As A Substantial Growth Driver!

By Baptista Research

  • Fox Corporation recently announced its second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, showcasing significant growth across multiple fronts but also highlighting areas of concern for future investor considerations.
  • The company reported a record quarterly EBITDA of $781 million, representing a 123% increase from the previous year, alongside a 20% revenue growth reaching over $5 billion.
  • This promising financial performance was primarily driven by robust advertising and affiliate revenue growth, political advertising, strength in FOX News ratings, and impressive sports viewership.

ATI Inc.: Strategic Customer Partnerships & Capacity Utilization For Unmatched Impact!

By Baptista Research

  • Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI) reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the full year.
  • Its performance highlights include a sequential revenue increase of 12% in the fourth quarter, reaching $1.2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA surpassing guidance at $210 million.
  • For the full year, ATI achieved nearly $4.4 billion in revenue, marking its highest since 2012, with a 5% year-over-year increase despite industry challenges.

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief India: Clean Science and Technology, Sify Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Clean Science and Technologies Ltd- Entering New Habitats
  • Sify Technologies – Exploring INR3,000 Crore Data Center IPO

Clean Science and Technologies Ltd- Entering New Habitats

By Nitin Mangal

  • Clean Science and Technology (CLEAN IN) is one of the leading chemical manufacturers globally of functionally critical specialty chemicals, Pharmaceutical Intermediates, and FMCG Chemicals.
  • It has embarked on a massive expansion by commissioning a new plant to manufacture HALS and is also spending additional capex to manufacture new products.
  • With forensics, we pay attention to excessive remuneration being paid to promoters, concentration risk from top customers, and increase in attrition of permanent employees.

Sify Technologies – Exploring INR3,000 Crore Data Center IPO

By Garvit Bhandari

  • Sify Technologies Ltd is planning to tap into the burgeoning demand for data centers in the India via a INR3,000 crore IPO
  • Sify has aggressive expansion plans in place with the aim to triple its data center capacity to more than 350 MW in the coming years.
  • We expect the value of standalone data center business to be more than the current market cap of Sify. In our view, IPO will unlock value for existing Sify shareholders.

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