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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Nov 04
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Singapore Equity Strategy: October 2025 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore Equity Strategy: October 2025
  • Ohayo Japan | AI Deals Drive Gains
  • SA Listed Property Review – October 2025
  • Singapore Market Roundup (03-Nov-2025): UOB KayHian initiates ‘Buy’ on ASL Marine, target 33
  • Japan Morning Connection: AI Related Earnings from Fri and a Strong Tape Set to Send JP Higher
  • Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates
  • Thematic Report on PSB Consolidation 2.0: UBI-BoI Merger Signals India’s Push for Global-Scale Banks

Singapore Equity Strategy: October 2025

By Wealth Management Alliance

  • In this strategy update, we look at the two new stock indices – the iEdge Singapore Next 50 Index and the iEdge Next 50 Liquidity Weighted Index – released by the SGX on 22 September 2025.
  • The two new indices cover the next 50 largest companies listed on the SGX Mainboard, excluding the 30 largest companies by market capitalization (which are covered by the benchmark Straits Times Index, STI).
  • The 50 constituent companies are identical for both new indices, but the first is weighted by free-float market capitalization while the second is weighted by turnover to capture the relative liquidity of the constituents.

Ohayo Japan | AI Deals Drive Gains

By Mark Chadwick

  • AI deals drove Nasdaq +0.5%: OpenAI $38B AWS, Lambda/Microsoft multibillion, Iris Energy $9.7B Microsoft; Nvidia +2.2%.
  • Palantir Q3 beat: 21¢ EPS/$1.18B rev, Q4 guide $1.33B on AI; stock +1% AH
  • Kimberly-Clark buys Kenvue for $48.7B, merging 10 $1B brands; Kenvue +12%, KC -14%.

SA Listed Property Review – October 2025

By Garreth Elston

  • The South African listed property sector extended its recovery through October, supported by stabilising inflation, a softer global rate backdrop, and renewed capital inflows into income-yielding assets.
  • The J803 All Property Index delivered an 8.13% total return for the month, bringing year-to-date gains to 21.11%
  • Sector breadth remains the strongest in over two years, with 26 of 40 counters posting positive returns.

Singapore Market Roundup (03-Nov-2025): UOB KayHian initiates ‘Buy’ on ASL Marine, target 33

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • UOB KayHian starts ‘Buy’ on ASL Marine, targeting 33 cents.
  • Analysts optimistic on Wilmar after 3Q update and Indonesia cooking oil case resolution.
  • CGSI expects DFI’s management to prioritize medium-term goals and acquisitions.

Japan Morning Connection: AI Related Earnings from Fri and a Strong Tape Set to Send JP Higher

By Andrew Jackson

  • Decent Onsemi numbers point to a more broad-based recovery, but the end of the Nexperia disruption may be seen as negative for  Rohm and Renesas
  • Socionext +17% on Fri on Google’s Willow news but likely to give it all back on poor guidance
  • SEI, TDK, Lasertec and TEL all pointing up, Screen down on timing issue

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The government’s 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal’s newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.
  • This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.
  • While execution is accelerating, the sector’s profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.

Thematic Report on PSB Consolidation 2.0: UBI-BoI Merger Signals India’s Push for Global-Scale Banks

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The Indian government is actively considering a new wave of PSB consolidation, headlined by a potential merger of Union Bank of India and Bank of India, alongside selective privatisation.
  • This signals a strategic shift from post-NPA crisis management to building globally competitive banks, which could fundamentally alter the sector’s competitive landscape and credit capacity.
  • With PSBs on their strongest footing in a decade, this consolidation round has a higher chance of success, forcing investors to re-evaluate the long-term structure of Indian banking.

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief ECM: CNGR Advanced Material H Share Listing: The Investment Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • CNGR Advanced Material H Share Listing: The Investment Case
  • Northsand Pre-IPO: Strong Topline Momentum With Improving Margins
  • Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO): Profitable HCI Spinoff Insurtech Drawing Interest from IPO Investors
  • JD Industrials Pre-IPO – Re-Refiling Updates – More Hits than Misses
  • Central Bancompany, Inc. (CBC):Missouri Based Bank Sets Terms, Seeking $5.0b+ Valuation

CNGR Advanced Material H Share Listing: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH), a new energy materials company, has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$700 million.     
  • CNGR ranked first globally in 2024 in terms of sales value for all cathode active material precursors (pCAM) products, with a market share of 21.8%.
  • The fundamentals are solid, with good growth, a relatively stable margin profile, declining cash burn, manageable leverage, and an undemanding valuation. 

Northsand Pre-IPO: Strong Topline Momentum With Improving Margins

By Hong Jie Seow

  • Northsand (446A JP) aims to raise around US$121m in its Japan IPO.
  • Northsand is a consulting firm that provides both IT and business consulting services. Established in 2015, it helps organizations improve efficiency, modernize operations, and achieve sustainable growth.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO): Profitable HCI Spinoff Insurtech Drawing Interest from IPO Investors

By IPO Boutique

  • Exzeo Group (XZO US), a profitable spin-off from HCI Group, enters the market with exceptional financial discipline under CEO Paresh Patel.
  • With $195 million in annual recurring revenue, 51.6% EBITDA margins, zero debt, and $75 million in free cash flow, Exzeo stands out as a combination of scale and profitability.
  • Books are well oversubscribed heading into pricing, with a Thursday debut anticipated. However, Truist Securities’ role as lead left underwriter introduces some execution uncertainty given its limited IPO track record.

JD Industrials Pre-IPO – Re-Refiling Updates – More Hits than Misses

By Sumeet Singh

  • JD Industrial is now looking to raise about US$500m, down from earlier reported US$1bn, in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
  • We have looked at the company background and provided our initial thoughts on valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the refiling updates.

Central Bancompany, Inc. (CBC):Missouri Based Bank Sets Terms, Seeking $5.0b+ Valuation

By IPO Boutique

  • Central Bancompany (CBC) targets a late-November IPO with strong fundamentals—$19.1B in assets, $14.2B in wealth under advice, and consistent profitability across diversified Midwest banking operations.
  • The $5B–$5.7B Missouri-based bank’s offering seeks $374M in proceeds to support expansion and potential acquisitions, highlighting disciplined growth and a proven 123-year legacy of stability.
  • Despite the ongoing government shutdown, CBC’s IPO remains on track for November 21, marking one of the largest and most diversified bank debuts in 2025.

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Primer: Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP IJ) – Nov 2025

Primer: Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP IJ) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • CMNP is an established toll road operator in Indonesia with a portfolio of concessions primarily located in strategic, high-traffic urban areas, positioning it to benefit from the country’s continued economic growth and urbanization.
  • The company is embarking on significant expansion projects, notably the Harbour Road II, which is expected to drive future revenue growth. However, these projects also entail considerable execution and financing risks.
  • Valuation appears attractive, with a low price-to-book ratio and a high Smartkarma value score. This is contrasted by a lack of dividend payments and potential corporate governance concerns related to concession extensions that are under investigation.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief South Korea: FnGuide Inc, Robotis, Hanwha Aerospace, Daewon San Up, Hanmi Pharm, Kia Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Total Net Asset Value of ETFs Based on FnGuide Indices Exceeds 30 Trillion Won (US$21 Billion)
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Number of Changes Likely in December; Huge Outperformance
  • Hanwha Aerospace: Best Ever Results in 3Q 2025
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #48: Daewon Sanup
  • Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Flagship Drugs Boost 3Q25 Result Amid Obesity Pipeline Progress
  • Long Kia (000270 KS) Vs. Short Hyundai (005380 KS): Quant Model Hits Trigger Zone in Korean Autos

Total Net Asset Value of ETFs Based on FnGuide Indices Exceeds 30 Trillion Won (US$21 Billion)

By Douglas Kim

  • FnGuide is one of the key beneficiaries of the increased index investing in Korea. 
  • Total net assets of ETFs tracking FnGuide indices surged from about 14 trillion won at the end of 2024 to about 30 trillion won as of end of October 2025.
  • There has been a sharp increase in foreign ownership of FnGuide from 0.4% at the end of 2023 to 14.5% as of 3 November 2025.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Number of Changes Likely in December; Huge Outperformance

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period for the December rebalance complete, we highlight 17 potential changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
  • The estimated impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.1-3.2 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.7-11.2 days of ADV.
  • The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months with a big move higher in the last couple of months. Trim positions into strength.

Hanwha Aerospace: Best Ever Results in 3Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In 3Q25, Hanwha Aerospace reported sales of 6.5 trillion won (up 146.5% YoY and 1.6% lower than consensus) and operating profit of 856.4 billion won (up 79.5% YoY).
  • The company’s results in 3Q 2025 were its best ever in its history. The strong results were driven by its land defense business and its shipbuilding unit Hanwha Ocean.
  • Given the company’s excellent growth in sales and profits in the past several years as well as its strong order backlog, its valuationsremain attractive. 

Korea Small Cap Gem #48: Daewon Sanup

By Douglas Kim

  • Daewon Sanup’s net cash as percentage of market cap is 171%. This is one of the highest net cash/market cap ratios in the Korean stock market.
  • Daewon Sanup is one of the largest Korean automobile seat manufacturers. It is also one of the beneficiaries of the reduction in US auto tariffs to 15% (from 25% previously). 
  • The company is trading at dirt cheap valuations. It is trading at P/E of 2.3x and P/B of 0.4x based on LTM financials. 

Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Flagship Drugs Boost 3Q25 Result Amid Obesity Pipeline Progress

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) has reported mixed performance for 3Q25. Despite flat topline and high R&D investment, mid-single digit growth in operating profit is the key highlight of 3Q25 result.
  • Interim topline results of Phase 3 trials for efpeglenatide have raised expectations that the drug will establish itself as a “national obesity drug” based on excellent efficacy and proven safety.
  • The company submitted clinical trial application to FDA for HM17321. Hanmi received FDA approval to initiate a Phase 2 clinical trial with HM15275, which is expected to commence this month.

Long Kia (000270 KS) Vs. Short Hyundai (005380 KS): Quant Model Hits Trigger Zone in Korean Autos

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Kia (000270 KS) vs. Hyundai (005380 KS) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: Going long Kia (000270 KS) and short Hyundai (005380 KS) targets a 12% return.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief United States: Amazon, Confluent, Amkor Technology, Seagate Technology Holdings PL, Paypal Holdings, HNI Corp, Riley Exploration Permian, Corning Inc, Honeywell International, Booking Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update
  • Confluent: Real-Time Data Processing with Stream Processing & Flink Are Driving Growth!
  • Amkor Technology Doubles Down on Ultra-High-Density Packaging – Is This the Next Tech Revolution?
  • Seagate Technology Goes All-In on HAMR – Will 40TB Drives Change Everything?
  • PayPal’s BNPL Boom: How Is It Winning Over Gen Z Shoppers?
  • HNI: 3Q25 EPS Upside; Workplace Leading Indicators Firming
  • REPX: Free Cash Flow to Execute Strategy
  • Corning Unveils What’s Next in Solar, Optical, and Auto Tech – Investors Take Note!
  • Weekly Update (WDC, AAF, LBTYA, LEN)
  • Booking Holdings Just Launched a B2B Shakeup—Here’s What It Means for Travel Giants!

Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT) revenues accelerating from 1Q25. Total revenues in 2025 ~$1.15tn, up 17% YoY.
  • Cloud (AWS, GOOG, MSFT) revenues accelerating. 2025 Cloud revenues in 2025 ~$375bn, up 25% YoY.
  • 2025 Capex up 63% YoY to $376bn. 2026 Capex will increase by ~46% YoY to reach ~$550bn. I estimate ~30% increase in 2027 to reach $715bn.

Confluent: Real-Time Data Processing with Stream Processing & Flink Are Driving Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Confluent, a company specializing in data streaming solutions, reported solid quarterly results, surpassing all guided metrics.
  • The company’s subscription revenue saw a 19% increase year-over-year, reaching $286 million, while Confluent Cloud revenue increased by 24% to $161 million.
  • This highlights the firm’s strong growth trajectory in cloud services, which now represent 56% of its subscription revenue.

Amkor Technology Doubles Down on Ultra-High-Density Packaging – Is This the Next Tech Revolution?

By Baptista Research

  • Amkor Technology’s third-quarter 2025 financial results showcased strong performance and strategic advancements, yet they also highlighted some areas of pressure and challenges.
  • The company reported a revenue of $1.99 billion, marking a 31% sequential increase and a 7% year-over-year growth, exceeding expectations.
  • Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter stood at $0.51, also above the guidance provided.

Seagate Technology Goes All-In on HAMR – Will 40TB Drives Change Everything?

By Baptista Research

  • Seagate Technology recently reported its fiscal first-quarter 2026 results, showcasing a strong start to the year marked by notable financial performance and strategic advancements.
  • Positively, Seagate reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 21%, reaching $2.63 billion.
  • Non-GAAP gross margin reached a new record for the company at 40.1%, with operating margins climbing to 29%.

PayPal’s BNPL Boom: How Is It Winning Over Gen Z Shoppers?

By Baptista Research

  • PayPal’s third-quarter 2025 financial performance and strategic direction reveal a nuanced picture with both notable achievements and ongoing challenges.
  • The company has demonstrated impressive progress in strengthening its foundational operations and focusing on profitable growth.
  • Revenue has accelerated recently, stemming from strategies centered on expanding branded experiences, buy now, pay later (BNPL) services, and increased Venmo monetization.

HNI: 3Q25 EPS Upside; Workplace Leading Indicators Firming

By Water Tower Research

  • HNI reported 3Q25 ongoing EPS of $1.10 versus $1.03 in 3Q24, up 6.8%, which was ahead of our $1.06 estimate, which was also consensus
  • Sales grew 1.7% in the quarter to $683.8MM, slightly below our forecast for 2.2% growth and consensus of 2.5% growth.
  • Excluding the HNI India divesture, organic sales growth was 2.6% in the quarter.

REPX: Free Cash Flow to Execute Strategy

By Water Tower Research

  • Riley’s solid cash flow profile provides management with the flexibility to navigate the current commodity price environment. 
  • Management’s latest (August 6, 2025) FY25 total capital spending plan totaled $113-146 million, which included $84-100 million of upstream capex and $29-46 million of midstream capex.
  • An additional $15-18 million investment is planned in the company’s power joint venture. 

Corning Unveils What’s Next in Solar, Optical, and Auto Tech – Investors Take Note!

By Baptista Research

  • Corning Inc. reported a robust third quarter for 2025, demonstrating strong financial performance and strategic advancements across its business segments.
  • However, there are both positive factors and challenges that potential investors might want to consider when evaluating their investment in Corning.
  • Positively, Corning posted a year-over-year sales growth of 14% to $4.27 billion and an impressive 24% increase in earnings per share (EPS) to $0.67, with the operating margin expanding by 130 basis points to 19.6%.

Weekly Update (WDC, AAF, LBTYA, LEN)

By Richard Howe

  • This week we had a busy week of earnings (WDC, AAF, LBTYA), and it will continue next week.
  • Honeywell (HON)  spun off 100% of its Advanced Materials business, Solstice (SOLS), on October 30, 2025.

  • Solstice was added to the S&P 500 and performed well on its first day of trading before selling off on Friday.

Booking Holdings Just Launched a B2B Shakeup—Here’s What It Means for Travel Giants!

By Baptista Research

  • Booking Holdings delivered a strong performance in the third quarter, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in a dynamic travel industry landscape.
  • The company’s broad global footprint and diversified revenue streams contributed to robust financial results that surpassed expectations.
  • These results were highlighted by several key metrics that combined both positive trends and potential areas of caution.

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief India: Asian Paints, Venus Pipes & Tubes, IRB InvIT Fund and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November
  • Primer: Venus Pipes & Tubes (VENUSPIP IN) – Nov 2025
  • Primer: IRB InvIT Fund (IRBINVIT IN) – Nov 2025

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

By Brian Freitas

  • Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
  • The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
  • Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.

Primer: Venus Pipes & Tubes (VENUSPIP IN) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Venus Pipes & Tubes is a rapidly growing manufacturer and exporter of stainless steel (SS) seamless and welded pipes and tubes in India, capitalizing on the expanding domestic and international demand across various industries.
  • The company is in the midst of a significant capacity expansion and backward integration strategy, which is expected to drive revenue growth, improve margins, and strengthen its market position.
  • While the company has demonstrated strong financial performance and a robust growth trajectory, it faces risks associated with the cyclicality of the steel industry, raw material price volatility, and increasing competition from both domestic and international players.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: IRB InvIT Fund (IRBINVIT IN) – Nov 2025

By αSK

  • Established Portfolio with Stable, Long-Term Cash Flows: IRB InvIT Fund owns a portfolio of operational toll road assets with long concession periods granted by the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI), providing predictable, long-term revenue streams essential for stable distributions to unitholders.
  • Strong Growth Trajectory via Strategic Acquisitions: The Trust is actively expanding its asset base through strategic acquisitions from its sponsor, IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. A recent major acquisition of three high-revenue BOT assets is set to double the enterprise value to over ₹16,000 crore and extend the weighted average life of the portfolio to 17 years.
  • Attractive Dividend Yield and Valuation: As an Infrastructure Investment Trust (InvIT), it is mandated to distribute 90% of its net distributable cash flow, resulting in a consistently high dividend yield. The units trade at an attractive price-to-book ratio, suggesting a favorable valuation relative to its underlying asset value.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Front-end UST yields declined on Friday, unwinding part of the jump in yields following the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST fell 4 bps to 3.57%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was down 2 bps at 4.08%. Equities climbed, supported by optimism over corporate earnings.
  • The S&P 500 gained 0.3% to 6,840, while the Nasdaq rose 0.6% to 23,725. 

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Elite UK REIT: October 2025 Update and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Elite UK REIT: October 2025 Update
  • Total Net Asset Value of ETFs Based on FnGuide Indices Exceeds 30 Trillion Won (US$21 Billion)
  • Nintendo (7974) | Early Signals from the Switch 2 Cycle
  • Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update
  • Pop Mart (9992 HK) 25Q3 – The Decline in Stock Prices May Not Have Ended Yet
  • Hanwha Aerospace: Best Ever Results in 3Q 2025
  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Surpassing Expectations Handsomely, But Fairly Valued. Money Off The Table?
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #48: Daewon Sanup
  • Mediatek 3Q25: Good News (ASIC Revenue) But Weak Margins Getting Weaker. Stock Not Attractive.
  • Confluent: Real-Time Data Processing with Stream Processing & Flink Are Driving Growth!

Elite UK REIT: October 2025 Update

By Wealth Management Alliance

  • This report provides an update of Elite UK REIT (SGX: MXNU), after our initiation report dated 18 March 25.
  • Then, we had a price target of GBP0.30. We have increased the target price now to GBP0.39 in view of the REIT’s pivot and diversification and factoring in the market’s willingness to accept a smaller traded discount on the REIT’s share to its NAV.
  • Since our initiation report, several positive developments have emerged.

Total Net Asset Value of ETFs Based on FnGuide Indices Exceeds 30 Trillion Won (US$21 Billion)

By Douglas Kim

  • FnGuide is one of the key beneficiaries of the increased index investing in Korea. 
  • Total net assets of ETFs tracking FnGuide indices surged from about 14 trillion won at the end of 2024 to about 30 trillion won as of end of October 2025.
  • There has been a sharp increase in foreign ownership of FnGuide from 0.4% at the end of 2023 to 14.5% as of 3 November 2025.

Nintendo (7974) | Early Signals from the Switch 2 Cycle

By Mark Chadwick

  • Switch 2 production signals confidence: Supplier orders for up to 25 mn units imply upside to Nintendo’s conservative guidance and likely operating profit revisions over FY3/26.  
  • Quarterly Earnings Sensitivity: Every 1 mn hardware units adds ¥11 bn to OP and 1 mn software units ¥3 bn, making Q2 results a key sentiment catalyst.
  • Sector positioning remains strong: With major global peers acquired, Nintendo stands as the premier pure-play gaming franchise; valuation premium sustained by scarcity and structural growth exposure.

Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT) revenues accelerating from 1Q25. Total revenues in 2025 ~$1.15tn, up 17% YoY.
  • Cloud (AWS, GOOG, MSFT) revenues accelerating. 2025 Cloud revenues in 2025 ~$375bn, up 25% YoY.
  • 2025 Capex up 63% YoY to $376bn. 2026 Capex will increase by ~46% YoY to reach ~$550bn. I estimate ~30% increase in 2027 to reach $715bn.

Pop Mart (9992 HK) 25Q3 – The Decline in Stock Prices May Not Have Ended Yet

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Pop Mart’s 25Q3 results beat expectations, mainly driven by high growth of revenue attributed from operations overseas. The “online + offline + overseas” three-wheel drive strategy has achieved remarkable performance.
  • However, the market has expressed concerns over the IP life cycle and performance sustainability of Pop Mart through the decline in its stock price, which may not have ended yet.
  • There are no signs that new products can catch up with LABUBU. Once market sentiment reverses, it will affect Pop Mart’s valuation outlook. 30-35x P/E is a more comfortable range.

Hanwha Aerospace: Best Ever Results in 3Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In 3Q25, Hanwha Aerospace reported sales of 6.5 trillion won (up 146.5% YoY and 1.6% lower than consensus) and operating profit of 856.4 billion won (up 79.5% YoY).
  • The company’s results in 3Q 2025 were its best ever in its history. The strong results were driven by its land defense business and its shipbuilding unit Hanwha Ocean.
  • Given the company’s excellent growth in sales and profits in the past several years as well as its strong order backlog, its valuationsremain attractive. 

Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Surpassing Expectations Handsomely, But Fairly Valued. Money Off The Table?

By Sameer Taneja

  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP) surpassed expectations in Q3 2025, delivering revenue/profit growth of 14%/12% YoY, with FY25e store expansions totaling 11 stores, bringing the total to 86 in Singapore. 
  • The company is now pursuing a strategy of mall openings in tandem with its already successful HDB strategy, resulting in a higher growth rate than previously expected. 
  • Despite the more rapidly expanding footprint in Singapore, we believe the company is now fairly valued at 24.4x FY25PE with risks from the Johor Bahru-Singapore RTS and the associated SEZ. 

Korea Small Cap Gem #48: Daewon Sanup

By Douglas Kim

  • Daewon Sanup’s net cash as percentage of market cap is 171%. This is one of the highest net cash/market cap ratios in the Korean stock market.
  • Daewon Sanup is one of the largest Korean automobile seat manufacturers. It is also one of the beneficiaries of the reduction in US auto tariffs to 15% (from 25% previously). 
  • The company is trading at dirt cheap valuations. It is trading at P/E of 2.3x and P/B of 0.4x based on LTM financials. 

Mediatek 3Q25: Good News (ASIC Revenue) But Weak Margins Getting Weaker. Stock Not Attractive.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Weak 3Q reported, weak 4Q guidance (Operating Margin) due to wafer price, some TSMC tightness (5-3nm), Opex increase. This should continue into 2026. Consensus too high. That should be negative.
  • But Management provides a very upbeat ASIC guidance: $1bn revenue in ’26, several bn in ‘27 , OP margin accretive at some point. Short-term pain, long-term gain.
  • MTK posits itself as the next ASIC disruptor, has several codesigns with Nvidia. But that’s material in ’27. The stock is down -8% YTD. Underperformance continues at least in 1H26.

Confluent: Real-Time Data Processing with Stream Processing & Flink Are Driving Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Confluent, a company specializing in data streaming solutions, reported solid quarterly results, surpassing all guided metrics.
  • The company’s subscription revenue saw a 19% increase year-over-year, reaching $286 million, while Confluent Cloud revenue increased by 24% to $161 million.
  • This highlights the firm’s strong growth trajectory in cloud services, which now represent 56% of its subscription revenue.

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief Macro: HEM: Nov-25 Views & Challenges and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • HEM: Nov-25 Views & Challenges
  • Making Sense of the Gold Price Retreat
  • Prepare for the Year-End Rally!
  • Asian Equities: Foreign Flows Wobbled in October; Taiwan Sold, Korea Moderated; India Bounced Back
  • End of Quantitative Tightening Partly Eclipsed by Hawkish Pivot by Fed Chairman Powell
  • Luxembourg Economy – September 12, 2025
  • Third Quarter 2025 Letter to Investors

HEM: Nov-25 Views & Challenges

By Phil Rush

  • Pushback by Powell and peers trimmed some excessively dovish pricing, but the BoE converged down on poor data.
  • The BoE should also resist pressure as underlying issues are unbroken by relatively marginal recent payback.
  • We now see markets overpricing easing most in the UK. More weakness is needed to signal a threatening trend.

Making Sense of the Gold Price Retreat

By Cam Hui

  • We offer a plausible scenario that explains the recent surge and correction in gold. 
  • The market misinterpreted the “Liberation Day” USD decline as a “Sell America” trade instead of a “Hedge America” trade and panicked out of USD and rushed into gold.
  • We expect a bottom in gold in Q4 or Q1 as the new Fed Chair pivots monetary policy in a more expansionary manner.

Prepare for the Year-End Rally!

By Cam Hui

  • A review of our Trend Asset Allocation Model reveals a broadly based momentum-driven global bull.  
  • The S&P 500 is also entering a period of positive year-end seasonality.
  • In light of the bullish support provided by the intermediate trend, investors should be positioning for a rally into year-end.

Asian Equities: Foreign Flows Wobbled in October; Taiwan Sold, Korea Moderated; India Bounced Back

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • In October FIIs bought US$2.36bn of Asian equities, sharply lower than US$8.42bn in September. They sold Taiwan (-US$3.2bn), bought Korea (US$4.2bn) and India (US$1.66bn). ASEAN continued to be sold.
  • FIIs’ dampened sentiment was triggered by Asia’s toppish valuations and a decline in probability of a Fed rate cut in December, which in turn led to a stronger US Dollar.
  • Going forward we expect flows to recover in Taiwan and stay healthy in Korea, as sentiment on AI capex recovers, driven by strong growth and robust capex targets of hyperscalers.

End of Quantitative Tightening Partly Eclipsed by Hawkish Pivot by Fed Chairman Powell

By Said Desaque

  • Although the Fed reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points last week, as expected, Chairman Powell disappointed markets with a hawkish pivot about further declines in 2025.
  • The cessation of quantitative tightening , effective 1 December, was also announced due to the elimination of excess liquidity in the financial system and strains in repo funding markets.
  • The elevated demand for repo funding due to high Treasury debt issuance means the Fed has effectively lost control of its balance sheet due to profligate fiscal policy conduct.

Luxembourg Economy – September 12, 2025

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • Luxembourg’s Economy is projected to continue the positive growing trends in the next three years.
  • According to IMF, the economy is expected to present growth rates of 1.03%, 1.58% and 2.21% in the years 2024-2026, rebounding from the slight contraction of 0.69% in 2023.
  • Investments as percentage of GDP, are to stay between the 14-15% level, i.e. well below the 18% average of the last years. 

Third Quarter 2025 Letter to Investors

By Massif Capital Research

  • During the third quarter of 2025, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy returned 36.1% net of fees, bringing our YTD returns to 41.5% net of fees.
  • Gross-of-fees gains from the long book were 35.9% and short book gains were 0.73%.
  • The Real Assets strategy has now been running for 27 quarters, and this was our best quarter to date, bringing our since-inception annualized net-of-fees returns to 14.6%.

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Nov 04
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Elite UK REIT, Sheng Siong, SUTL Enterprise, OKP Holdings, Valuetronics Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Elite UK REIT: October 2025 Update
  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Surpassing Expectations Handsomely, But Fairly Valued. Money Off The Table?
  • SUTL Enterprise Limited – Setting Sail for Regional Expansion
  • Fundamentals Driving Recent SMID Institutional Flows
  • 2025 Buyback Consideration Surpasses 10-year High

Elite UK REIT: October 2025 Update

By Wealth Management Alliance

  • This report provides an update of Elite UK REIT (SGX: MXNU), after our initiation report dated 18 March 25.
  • Then, we had a price target of GBP0.30. We have increased the target price now to GBP0.39 in view of the REIT’s pivot and diversification and factoring in the market’s willingness to accept a smaller traded discount on the REIT’s share to its NAV.
  • Since our initiation report, several positive developments have emerged.

Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Surpassing Expectations Handsomely, But Fairly Valued. Money Off The Table?

By Sameer Taneja

  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP) surpassed expectations in Q3 2025, delivering revenue/profit growth of 14%/12% YoY, with FY25e store expansions totaling 11 stores, bringing the total to 86 in Singapore. 
  • The company is now pursuing a strategy of mall openings in tandem with its already successful HDB strategy, resulting in a higher growth rate than previously expected. 
  • Despite the more rapidly expanding footprint in Singapore, we believe the company is now fairly valued at 24.4x FY25PE with risks from the Johor Bahru-Singapore RTS and the associated SEZ. 

SUTL Enterprise Limited – Setting Sail for Regional Expansion

By SAC Capital

  • SUTL Enterprise Limited (“SUTL”) is a Singapore based developer, operator, and consultant of integrated marinas and remain as the only marina focused business listed on the SGX.
  • Under its proprietary ONE°15 Marina brand, the Group operates its flagship club at Sentosa Cove, manages third-party marinas across Asia, and runs a luxury yacht charter fleet of over 50 vessels.
  • Its core revenue streams comprise marina club operations (berthing, hospitality, and F&B services), consultancy and management fees for marina developments, and luxury yacht charters.

Fundamentals Driving Recent SMID Institutional Flows

By Geoff Howie

  • SMID stocks in Singapore saw S$472 million net institutional inflows in 2H25, reversing S$150 million outflows from 1H25.
  • Technology sector led SMID inflows with S$308 million, driven by AI adoption and CSE Global’s 50% share price increase.
  • Construction sector growth boosted nine SMID stocks, with OKP Holdings securing a S$258 million contract, increasing its order book.

2025 Buyback Consideration Surpasses 10-year High

By Geoff Howie

  • In 2025, 78 primary-listed Singapore companies repurchased S$1.91 billion in shares, a 90% increase from 2024.
  • 17Live Group repurchased S$6.2 million shares, 3.4% of its market capitalisation, reflecting disciplined capital deployment.
  • Jason Marine Group’s first buyback since 2015 followed a 40% revenue increase and strong project deliveries.

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