Category

Australia

Aug 23
0

Daily Brief Australia: S&P/ASX 200, Coro Energy PLC, Telix Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/ASX 200: Profit Targets After Sep-25 Rebalance Methodology Finalized
  • Hybridan Research: Coro Energy Plc: Power Surge
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Here’s Why Sentiment Has Improved

S&P/ASX 200: Profit Targets After Sep-25 Rebalance Methodology Finalized

By Nico Rosti

  • As reported by Brian Freitas , 2 days ago S&P DJI confirmed that the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented at the September 25 rebalance. Details here.
  • The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is currently OVERBOUGHT according to our models: the index reached an 83% probability of reversal at the intraweek high (9025). Incoming pullback.
  • The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally (short-term forecast), but could also pull back this week, checkour modelkey-supports.

Hybridan Research: Coro Energy Plc: Power Surge

By Hybridan

  • The financial components of the regenerative funding are completed, raising a combined £1.68m via a Placing and an open WRAP Retail offer at 0.5p.
  • The funding, representing 41.1% of the issued share capital, will accelerate the roll-out of the rooftop solar energy in Vietnam aiming to provide high margin, sustainable, long term cashflows from credit worthy Commercial and Industrial (C&I) customers.
  • Vietnam has a clean energy agenda as it transitions away from coal and fossil fuels to produce 28-36% of its 560.4bn KW per annum power usage in renewables by 2030.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Here’s Why Sentiment Has Improved

By Tina Banerjee

  • For 1H25, Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) recorded revenue of $390M, up 63% YoY and 41% HoH. Even after excluding RLS revenue, base business revenue grew 30% YoY and 12% HoH.
  • Illuccix continues to drive revenue growth. Global sales of Illuccix were $306M in 1H25, up 29% YoY, reflecting continued growth in sales volume and market share gains in the U.S.
  • SEC subpoena has not affected the normal business operation. Telix is “fully cooperating with the SEC and is in the process of responding to the information request.”

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Aug 22
0

Daily Brief Australia: PointsBet Holdings , Strategic Minerals PLC and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Attempts to Call Betr’s Bluff with a Final Offer
  • PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps, Again, And Declares Terms Final
  • Strategic Minerals PLC – Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 14/08/2025

PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Attempts to Call Betr’s Bluff with a Final Offer

By Arun George

  • Mixi Inc (2121 JP) disclosed its final PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer. The base unconditional offer remains A$1.25 but will be increased to A$1.30 if it acquires a 90% stake. 
  • Mixi’s final offer is designed to put maximum pressure on BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) to fold. Mixi would not satisfy the 90% threshold unless Betr accepts its offer.
  • Betr has three options: to improve its offer, accept Mixi’s offer, or maintain terms. The last option, which results in a significant stake in a competitor, makes strategic sense.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps, Again, And Declares Terms Final

By David Blennerhassett

  • Mixi Inc (2121 JP) has bumped its Offer to A$1.30/share, up from A$1.25/share; and declared terms final. Mixi currently holds 37.12% of shares out. 
  • Separately, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) released its Target Statement as it relates betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s all-scrip Offer, with a definitive “Reject”.
  • Mixi’s Offer is open to the 29th August – and will not be extended. Time for betr to fold its tent.

Strategic Minerals PLC – Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 14/08/2025

By Hybridan

  • Our daily digest of news from UK Small Caps Feast will take a well earned break for the weeks of 18th and 25th August.
  • Wishing everyone a lovely summer holiday period.
  • 14th August 2025 @HybridanLLP * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP.

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Aug 21
0

Daily Brief Australia: Lynch Group Holdings, Abacus Storage King, Fortescue Metals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lynch Group (LGL AU): (Another) Clean Offer From TPG
  • Lynch Group (LGL AU): TPG’s Scheme Offer
  • Abacus Storage (ASK AU): Time To Get Some Exposure?
  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Caution Is Warranted
  • Fortescue (FMG AU) Results on 26 Aug: Expected Price Swings and Volatility Outlook

Lynch Group (LGL AU): (Another) Clean Offer From TPG

By David Blennerhassett

  • Lynch Group (LGL AU), an integrated wholesale floral play, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with  Hasfarm Holdings and Darwin Aus Bidco – both of which are TPG entities.
  • Hasfarm is offering A$2.245/share, a 28.3% premium to last close. The consideration includes a fully franked dividend of A$0.09/share. It’s April 2021 IPO price was A$3.60/share.
  • The Offer has unanimous board support. 38.5% of the register is supportive. Hasfarm has also entered into a call option for 19.9% of shares out. Done deal.

Lynch Group (LGL AU): TPG’s Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with TPG Inc (TPG US) at A$2.245, a 28.3% premium to the undisturbed price of A$1.75 (19 August).
  • Lynch has several substantial shareholders, which poses a vote risk. Encouragingly, four out of eight substantial shareholders are supportive.
  • The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. The scheme meeting is estimated to be in November, with payment in December. 

Abacus Storage (ASK AU): Time To Get Some Exposure?

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 7th April, the Ki Corporation/Public Storage (PSA US) consortium announced a NBIO, by way of a Scheme, for shares not held in Abacus Storage (ASK AU) at A$1.47/security.
  • ASK rejected the Offer on the 13th May. The Kirsh-led consortium bumped non-binding terms 14.7% to A$1.65/share on the 14th July, and was granted six weeks of due diligence.
  • DD expires on or around the 1st September. Nathan Kirsh directly/indirectly holds a 59.47% stake in ASK. Currently trading at a 7.5% spread to the indicative terms. 

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Caution Is Warranted

By Arun George

  • The six-week due diligence for Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US)‘s A$1.65 offer for Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) ends on 1 September.
  • Some readers have asked if ASK is attractive at the current 7.5% gross spread. I think caution is warranted as there is a medium-to-high probability of no deal.
  • The probability of a binding scheme is low, as NSR will block it, and the Board requires a bump to recommend it. A takeover offer is not a credible alternative. 

Fortescue (FMG AU) Results on 26 Aug: Expected Price Swings and Volatility Outlook

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Timing:Fortescue (FMG AU) is scheduled to report its FY2025 full-year results on Tuesday, 26 August 2025.
  • Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move and the upcoming dividend. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.
  • Why Read: Get the expected move, the dividend outlook, and a clear view of the post-event volatility term structure to be ready for results day.

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Aug 20
0

Daily Brief Australia: Atlas Arteria, ADX Energy Ltd, Pointerra Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September
  • ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Formal permit award in Italy adds gas exploration upside
  • Pointerra Ltd – Cashflow from contracts pushed to H1 FY26

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.
  • If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Formal permit award in Italy adds gas exploration upside

By Auctus Advisors

  • ADX has been formally awarded the C.R150.AU offshore exploration permit in Sicily.
  • The permit has an initial term of 6 years, with the option for 2 additional 3-year renewal periods.
  • In the event of a commercial discovery, an exploitation concession may be granted for 20 years, extendable by a further 10 years.

Pointerra Ltd – Cashflow from contracts pushed to H1 FY26

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pointerra Ltd (ASX:3DP) provides a powerful cloud-based solution (Pointerra3D) for managing, visualising, analysing, using and sharing massive 3D point clouds and geo-spatial datasets.
  • Pointerra3D is a proprietary digital twin Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platform which delivers predictive digital insights and definitive answers to complex physical asset management questions.
  • Pointerra has reported Q4 cash receipts of $1.62m and an operating cash outflow of $1.01m (ASX release 31 July).

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Aug 19
0

Daily Brief Australia: Mayne Pharma, Guzman Y Gomez, Apiam Animal Health, S&P/ASX 200, Bell Financial and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em
  • Guzman IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups for a US$750m+ Release
  • Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): Adamantem’s NBIO
  • Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22
  • Bell Financial Group Ltd – A strong July lmost offsets H1 FY25 decline

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em

By Arun George

  • On 17 May, Cosette asserted that a material adverse change had occurred. Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disputes the claim with court proceedings set to start on 22 September. 
  • Mayne’s FY25 results on 29 August should provide incremental clarity, but not a definite answer, on the MAC breach relating to maintainable EBITDA (decline by at least A$10.76 million).
  • The outcome of the trial remains uncertain as both Mayne and Cosette have valid arguments. Risk/reward is attractive – upside (43.1% to offer) vs the downside (22.3% to deal-break price).  

Guzman IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups for a US$750m+ Release

By Sumeet Singh

  • Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its final IPO linked lockup expiry is due soon.
  • GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): Adamantem’s NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Australia’s largest rural and regional veterinary group, has announced a non-binding indicative Offer from PE outfit Adamantem Capital.  
  • Adamantem is offering A$0.88/share, a 64.5% premium to last close. If terms are firmed, shareholders will also be afforded a partial scrip option into an unlisted bidco. 
  • Adamantem has also entered into a call option for 19.9% of shares out at A$0.88/share. An independent board committee are assessing the approach. Due diligence not yet granted.

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

By Nico Rosti

Bell Financial Group Ltd – A strong July lmost offsets H1 FY25 decline

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Bell Financial Group Ltd (ASX:BFG) is a diversified provider of financial products and software solutions within, and increasingly outside, its traditional full-service stockbroking business.
  • BFG has reported a headline NPAT decline of 44% to $9.3m for H1 FY25.
  • RaaS had forecast a decline of 32% excluding investment losses on the back of lower ECM activity, which was the case and saw the retail and institutional (broking) business move from a profit to a loss over the period (a $9.1m turnaround).

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Aug 18
0

Daily Brief Australia: Santos Ltd, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Macquarie Group, Iron Ore, Telstra Corp and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (18 Aug) – Santos, Shibaura, ENN Energy, Kangji, OneConnect, Smart Share
  • Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (18 Aug)
  • Macquarie (MQG AU) Vs. ANZ (ANZ AU): Statistical Arbitrage in Aussie Bank Pair
  • CBA (CBA AU) Vs. Bank of Queensland (BOQ AU): Quant Signal Flags Trading Opportunity
  • Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF
  • Buybacks, Dividends Define Telstra’s Future

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Aug) – Santos, Shibaura, ENN Energy, Kangji, OneConnect, Smart Share

By Arun George

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (18 Aug)

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
  • Highlight: Currently seven pair trade opportunities across two markets and two sectors persist.
  • Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Macquarie (MQG AU) Vs. ANZ (ANZ AU): Statistical Arbitrage in Aussie Bank Pair

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Macquarie (MQG AU) vs. ANZ (ANZ AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: Going long Macquarie (MQG AU) and short ANZ (ANZ AU) targets a 5% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

CBA (CBA AU) Vs. Bank of Queensland (BOQ AU): Quant Signal Flags Trading Opportunity

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Commonwealth Bank (CBA AU) vs. Bank of Queensland (BOQ AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: After Commonwealth Bank’s sharp post-earnings drop last week, a mean-reversion model suggests long Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) and short Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU).
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF

By Sameer Taneja

  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU) commenced operations of its third mine, the Beebyn-W11, with the shipment of 60k tons from the port of Geraldton.
  • Beebyn-W11, Fenix’s third operating mine in the Midwest, is now operating at the planned FY26 production rate of 1.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa).
  • As a result, Fenix is now mining, hauling, loading and shipping at a combined run rate of more than 4Mtpa from the Company’s three mines. 

Buybacks, Dividends Define Telstra’s Future

By FNArena

  • Telstra is guiding to subdued mobile growth in FY26 as the cost of living bites.
  • Earnings growth relies on cost cutting and satellite development.
  • -Telstra’s FY25 in line, FY26 prognosis subdued -Cost of living driving customers to cheaper options -Major staff reductions to drive cost-outs -Satellite service critical to maintaining dominance

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Aug 17
0

Daily Brief Australia: Gold Road Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Road (GOR AU): 22th September Vote On Gold Fields’ Offer
  • Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

Gold Road (GOR AU): 22th September Vote On Gold Fields’ Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After rejecting an approach on the 24th March, on the 5th May, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)entered into a Scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ) after terms were bumped.
  • GFI offered $2.52/share, cash, plus a variable cash component of ~A$0.88 (now worth ~A$0.77/share) via GOR’s indirect stake in Northern Star Resources (NST AU). This includes any fully franked dividend.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 22nd September. The IE (Deloitte) says fair & reasonable. It is. 

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

By Arun George

  • The Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) IE considers Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR’s NST stake.
  • The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.  
  • The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%. 

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Aug 15
0

Daily Brief Australia: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Beetaloo Energy Australia, Provaris Energy and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CBA (CBA AU): FY 2025 Results Drive Sharp Intraday Moves – Insights for Options Traders
  • Beetaloo Energy Australia – The Commercial Data Set Is Building with More to Come
  • Provaris Energy Ltd – Moving forward on two fronts

CBA (CBA AU): FY 2025 Results Drive Sharp Intraday Moves – Insights for Options Traders

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)’s FY 2025 results delivered record profits but missed analyst expectations, prompting a sharp share price adjustment.
  • Insights: Detailed review of intraday price action and implied volatility behavior following the announcement shows how the market digested the results and how implied volatility established a new equilibrium.
  • Why Read: Offers a concise, data-driven view of how Australia’s largest bank’s results influenced market dynamics. Gain practical perspective on intraday trading patterns and where implied volatility might be heading

Beetaloo Energy Australia – The Commercial Data Set Is Building with More to Come

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (ASX:BTL) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
  • BTL has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
  • After successfully completing the stimulation phase of Carpentaria-5H (C-5H), the well is in a 30-day soaking period after which clean-up and testing will commence.

Provaris Energy Ltd – Moving forward on two fronts

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Provaris Energy Ltd (ASX:PV1) represents a unique investment opportunity as a leveraged play on the growing shift to alternative energy and carbon reduction, particularly in Europe, but applicable on a global basis.
  • The keystone to production and growth is the company’s proprietary ‘storage tank’ IP, enabling greater volumes of compressed gases to transport at lower cost (‘more for less’).
  • The company holds a material early-mover advantage with a number of strategic partnerships and two hydrogen supply, offtake and shipping agreements expected to become unconditional over the next 12 months.

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Aug 14
0

Daily Brief Australia: DroneShield Ltd, Tyro Payments, Amaero International Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated
  • Tyro Payment (TYR AU) Fielding Offers. Again.
  • Amaero International Ltd – Scaling revenue in H1 FY26, guidance reaffirmed

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

By Brian Freitas

  • S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.
  • The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.
  • The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&P/ASX 300 Index changes.

Tyro Payment (TYR AU) Fielding Offers. Again.

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in January 2023, point-of-sale payments play Tyro (TYR AU) provided Potentia with due diligence to “enable Potentia to develop a significantly improved proposal“. Potentia walked away from talks in May.
  • Then crickets. Yesterday (12th August), Tyro’s shares gained 10.6%.  After announcing this morning it has received unsolicited NBIOs, shares gained a further 8.6% (as I type), touching a 17-month high. 
  • At A$1.17/share, Tyro is ~27% adrift of Potentia’s last confirmed indicative Offer.

Amaero International Ltd – Scaling revenue in H1 FY26, guidance reaffirmed

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
  • The company provided a trading update to the market on 13 August in which it announced Q1 FY26 revenue would be approximately $5.5m, an increase of 560% on Q1 FY25 and that 90% of planned Q2 FY26 revenue had already been contracted.
  • Amaero also reaffirmed its previous guidance that it expects significantly scale revenue in FY26 and to achieve EBITDA positive in FY27.

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Aug 13
0

Daily Brief Australia: BHP Group Ltd, Nick Scali Ltd, JB Hi-Fi Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • BHP (BHP AU) Annual Results: Options Market Bets on Post-Earnings Upside
  • Strong Momentum Underpins Nick Scali’s FY26
  • JB Hi-Fi’s Re-Rating Triggers Valuation Dilemma

BHP (BHP AU) Annual Results: Options Market Bets on Post-Earnings Upside

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Timing: BHP (BHP AU) reports annual results on Tuesday, 19 August 2025, 8:00 AM AEST. Corresponding local times for its international listings are detailed in the Insight.
  • Highlight: Options positioning ahead of the results suggests at least one trader is making a sizeable bet on post-earnings upside.
  • Why Read: Gain insight into BHP’s earnings-day price history , volatility setup, and options market positioning to be ready for the upcoming announcement.

Strong Momentum Underpins Nick Scali’s FY26

By FNArena

  • A strong second-half performance in A&NZ and improving gross margins in the UK have propelled Nick Scali shares to new heights.
  • -Nick Scali’s FY25 results exceed expectations -A strong 2H for A&NZ, UK gross margin gains -Successful measures to improve cost base -Ord Minnett expects UK profits in FY28

JB Hi-Fi’s Re-Rating Triggers Valuation Dilemma

By FNArena

  • Another earnings result ‘beat’ by JB Hi-Fi was not enough to prevent the shares from selling-off on the day.
  • Over-reaction?
  • The debate is alive.

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