Equity Bottom-Up

• Latest Update: NCLAT has stayed NCLT’s rejection, allowing Vedanta’s five-way demerger to proceed, with completion targeted by September 2025.
• Value Concentration: Over 85% of Vedanta’s SOTP value stems from Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, driven by strong EBITDA and asset base.
• Upside and Risks: SOTP suggests 20%+ upside, but risks include regulatory delays, execution slippage in aluminium/zinc projects, and commodity price volatility.

• The stock price plunged by 16% after the 1Q25 results.
• The two major competitors benefited from the state subsidies, but PDD did not.
• However, PDD balances well between revenue growth and operating cash flow.

• Metaplanet aims to raise ¥745B via a 555M share issuance to expand its Bitcoin holdings, targeting 100,000 BTC by end-2026.
• The raise implies significant dilution, but rising share prices and strong NISA retail demand could make the capital goal achievable within 12–18 months.
• Early investors benefit structurally from raises above NAV, as Metaplanet evolves into a long-term institutional vehicle for Bitcoin exposure and monetary debasement hedging.

• The Gap Inc. reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results showcasing a mix of positive outcomes and ongoing challenges across its portfolio of brands.
• Highlights of the quarter include improvements in certain financial metrics and continued execution of its strategic initiatives, although the company is facing headwinds primarily related to tariffs which could impact its financial outlook.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• FY25 results reflected margin pressure and a 14% revenue decline due to project completions, with FY26 guidance indicating flat revenue and lower core EBITDA margins (5–5.25%).
• Indian Railways’ capex is expected to grow at a 6–10% CAGR over the next decade, offering sustained demand across new lines, electrification, and safety systems.
• While valuations appear reasonable, near-term growth visibility remains limited due to a muted order book and transition away from cost-plus contracts.

• Prince Pipes entered the premium bathware segment with the Aquel acquisition, expanding into lifestyle plumbing beyond traditional piping systems.
• This move broadens its addressable market and margin profile, creating cross-selling opportunities across its large dealer network.
• With margin recovery likely and industry destocking easing, Prince Pipes appears well-positioned for rerating and multi-year profit growth.

• 2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.
• Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.
• Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.

• CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., a leader in cybersecurity, delivered a robust performance in its fiscal first quarter of 2026, demonstrating both strengths and challenges.
• The company’s headline achievement was its double-digit million-dollar addition to net new ARR, significantly surpassing expectations and reaching an ending ARR of $4.4 billion.
• This milestone reinforces its stature as a dominant player in pure-play cybersecurity software at scale.

• e.l.f. Beauty recently reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2025, characterized by continued momentum and strategic expansion initiatives.
• The company exhibited a robust growth trajectory, marking its 25th consecutive quarter of net sales growth.
• For fiscal 2025, net sales increased by 28%, while adjusted EBITDA went up by 26%.

• Guidewire Software, Inc.’s latest financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 demonstrate a mix of robust performance and strategic progress.
• The company reported a record-breaking quarter in terms of sales activities, showcasing strong demand for its cloud offerings, with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reaching $960 million.
• Notably, Guidewire expects to surpass the $1 billion ARR milestone by the end of the fiscal year, indicating significant traction and growth in their subscription model.

• There’s nothing TSMC can do about U.S. tariffs but keep working hard and ensure TSMC’s technology remains the best in the world.
• Recently, the NT dollar has strengthened by 8%, and our operating margin has dropped by over 3% due to exchange rate fluctuations.
• If our technology could be stolen so easily, TSMC wouldn’t be where it is today.

• Keisei’s OLC stake distorts valuation optics, but is already transparently priced by the market.
• Activist criticism over “true” ROE reflects accounting semantics, not hidden inefficiency.
• Core business plus OLC stake offers modest returns; upside exists, but hardly suggestive of chronic long-term underperformance

• Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits
• Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. 
• Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.

• Of our seven quantitative stock baskets, four have operated for more than three months. We measure the performances of these four – Consistent Compounders, SMID Compounders, Dividend Yielders, Indian Mid-Caps.
• Consistent Compounders, though up since inception, has underperformed MXASJ mildly. SMID Compounders has underperformed sharply. Asian Dividend Yielders has outperformed handsomely and Indian Mid-Caps, by a stupendous margin.
• We think the Indian mid-cap basket could take a short-term breather. The Dividend Yield basket could outperform, as investors’ preference for yields in uncertain times could continue for now.

• In a strategic move underscoring its ambitions in AI infrastructure and next-gen interconnects, AMD recently acquired Silicon Valley-based Enosemi, a startup specializing in photonic integrated circuits.
• The acquisition is part of AMD’s broader effort to catch up with competitors like Nvidia, Intel, and Broadcom in the co-packaged optics (CPO) space, a technology increasingly viewed as essential for building high-bandwidth, energy-efficient AI systems.
• Enosemi, founded in 2023 by semiconductor engineers Ari Novack and Matthew Streshinsky, had previously collaborated with AMD on photonics development and brings with it a small but elite team of PhD-level engineers.

• Zscaler, a major force in cloud-based cybersecurity, has officially signed a definitive agreement to acquire Red Canary, a recognized leader in Managed Detection and Response (MDR), in a strategic push to redefine security operations through AI and data integration.
• The acquisition, expected to close in August 2025, marks Zscaler’s second major deal in the past 18 months after acquiring Avalor, a security data fabric provider.
• Red Canary brings more than $140 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR), a seasoned MDR go-to-market team, and agentic AI workflows already deployed in production.

• Eli Lilly and Company has made a decisive move to expand its footprint in neuroscience and pain management by announcing its acquisition of SiteOne Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotech focused on developing non-opioid pain treatments.
• The deal, valued at up to $1 billion including milestones, centers around STC-004, a Phase 2-ready NaV1.8 inhibitor that could become a next generation oral pain medication.
• The acquisition underscores Lilly’s broader ambition to lead in addiction-free, chronic pain solutions at a time when regulatory and societal pressures around opioid misuse continue to rise.

• In a strategic move that signals a shift toward automated, prevention-first cybersecurity, Check Point Software Technologies has announced its acquisition of Veriti Cybersecurity, a pioneering Israeli startup specializing in preemptive threat exposure management.
• The transaction, valued at over $100 million, is expected to close by the end of Q2 2025 and marks the first major acquisition under new CEO Nadav Zafrir.
• The deal comes at a time when Check Point is pushing hard on its hybrid mesh architecture vision and doubling down on its Infinity Platform to unify security across endpoints, cloud, and networks.

• Over FY22–FY25, HAL’s revenue grew at a CAGR of ~8%, while PAT rose at ~15% CAGR, with the order book doubling to ₹1.89 lakh Cr, providing LT visibility.
• India’s defence indigenization drive, large platform rollouts (LCA Mk1A, LUH, AMCA, engines), positions HAL to address a Rs3–4 lakh Cr opportunity over the next 5–10 years, including exports.
• Despite strong earnings growth, zero debt, and long-term JV upside (e.g., Safran engine), HAL trades at a P/E of ~33–38×, below many peers, indicating room for re-rating.

• Medical Data Vision [MDV] reported FY25 Q1 (Dec year-end) results with sales coming in largely in line with the firm’s guidance while operating profit [OP] was higher than expected.
• The firm produced Q1 gross profit [GP] of1,085mil (+3.8% YoY) and OP of ¥17mil (-67.6% YoY) on sales of ¥1,532mil (+10.4% YoY).
• Ther firm’s profit targets remain unchanged, guiding for FY25 OP of ¥2,600mil and RP of ¥2,500mil.

• Non-Controversial changes in asset allocation will provide a big boost to earnings.
• Demand problems brewing in the JGB market may provide the catalyst
• The path is clear to enter new businesses after parent lowers  stake below 50%

• EBITDA more than doubled (25% CAGR) over 3 years, with copper and cobalt output up ~3.5x and ~5.7x on ramp-up of TFM and KFM.
• $4.3 bn invested in DRC; low-cost leaching drives margins; gold entry via Cangrejos adds diversification and long-term optionality.
• Strong cash flows, growth pipeline, and ~4x EV/EBITDA valuation position CMOC for sustained upside amid rising energy transition metal demand.

• Intel Products CEO Michelle Johnston Holthaus reveals that the company is now also including Samsung as a second foundry option
• The practice of Intel offering OEM incentives appears to be coming to the end of its unnatural life as LBT sets the tone. Great news for AMD I would think.
• Further investment in A14 capacity will now be contingent on having customers committing to taking up that capacity. No more build it and they will come a la Mr. Gelsinger. 

• The company is expanding into EV motors, precision plastics, and exports to over 45 countries worldwide
• SPRL reported  Rs 36,612 million total income in FY25, with 15.3% YoY growth and a 22.8% EBITDA margin
• SPRL balances legacy ICE products with new EV, plastics, and non-auto segments for resilient growth

• NAVA’s net profit doubled from ₹536 Cr in FY23 to ₹1,091 Cr in FY25, driven by strong power and mining earnings.
• Maamba Phase II will double Zambian power capacity to 600 MW by FY27 with $400M investment. Zambia agri projects in avocado and sugar aim for diversified, steady revenue from FY27.
• NAVA has become debt-free, strengthening its balance sheet. Improved credit ratings reflect steady profits, healthy cash flows, and low debt risk.

• Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN) reported strong consolidated Q4FY25 financials, driven by fluoropolymers, with significant PAT growth and reduced net debt.
• This indicates sustained momentum in core fluoropolymers, potential for significant revenue contribution from the new EV business in the coming years, and an improved balance sheet supporting future investments.
• Capex of INR 1,600 crs in FY26 funded via external accruals will expand EV and fluoropolymer capacities, enabling long-term growth across energy, mobility, and specialty segments.

• Kilburn Engineering (KEL IN) achieved highest-ever standalone/consolidated revenue and EBITDA, completed two strategic acquisitions (ME Energy, Monga Strayfield), and secured record orders, particularly entering the Nuclear sector.
• The performance validates the company’s strategy of diversification and inorganic growth, providing strong visibility for future revenue with 50% growth target for FY26 .
• The strong execution, robust order book, and confident management guidance reinforce a positive outlook, suggesting significant growth potential building on recent strategic moves.

• Strong FY25 financial performance driven by volume growth outpacing revenue, significant PAT increase, and improved margins, particularly from higher-growth value-added and composite product segments.
• The strategic focus on higher-margin value-added products, especially composites, is enhancing profitability (margins, ROCE) and positioning the company for future growth in key sectors like clean energy and sustainability.
• The consistent execution on strategic targets (ROCE, debt reduction, composite growth) strengthens conviction in the management’s ability to deliver and capitalize on emerging opportunities, despite some project timeline shifts.

• Over the past six months, AViC’s share price has undergone a major re-rate.
• Its closing price on May 16, 2025, the day after Q2 FY2025/9 results announcement, stood at JPY 1,825, up 67.6% from the closing price of JPY 1,089 on November 14, 2024, when it announced FY2024/9 results.
• Based on the projected EPS of JPY 73.59 for FY2025/9, the Company’s share looks to be trading at a premium with a forward P/E ratio of 24.8x. 

• Despite short-term demand headwinds, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) remains well-positioned for structural growth via product premiumization(e.g.,CTF Rouge,Palace Museum), omni-channel scaling, and selective global expansion in culturally aligned markets.
• Company continues to defend margins through product mix optimization (fixed-price gold up to 25.6% of gold RSV),disciplined SG&A control, and aggressive retail network rationalization.
• Trading at ~26xx TTM P/E, it commands premium to peers, backed by industry-leading ROE (~25%),brand strength,and high dividend payout (~79%), though clear earnings rebound remains key to justify the multiple.

• Jardine Matheson (JM SP)‘s 77.8%-held DFI Retail Group (DFI SP) has sold its entire 22.2% stake in Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM) for ~US$283mn to “support its capital allocation strategy“.
• Preceding my comments on Matheson are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• In 1Q25, total revenue grew by 47% YoY with home appliance up by 59% YoY.
• Both home appliance and electric vehicle will expand their capacities.
• The stock has an upside of 29% and a price target of HK$66 for the next twelve months.

• A N3 wafer costs US$20k. Taiwan news mention N2 price at $30k, 16A at $45k. That’s a bit inflated but price increase at each node will be a hefty ~30-40%. 
• It will become difficult for PC, Smartphone to absorb a US$40k wafer cpst, or to use the chip’s performance in these devices. The addressable market will shrink: AI, Networking, Server. 
• TSMC’s growth will come more from wafer price increase than from volume growth. It’s already the case! Could be a problem for Semi Production Equipment vendors: scale will be smaller.

• IDC has revised down 2025 Smartphone unit growth from 2.3% to 0.6%; increased PC from 3.7% to 4.5% but expects a decline in 2026. 
• The positive for Mediatek is AI in Mobile chips, but it’s a secondary driver compared to AI ASIC design. Mediatek stock is more expensive than TSMC despite lower visibility.
• I don’t see any stock for which PC is a positive. The risk remain over-estimating replacement demand ahead of Windows 10 end-of-support in Oct-25.

• Xiaomi reported C1Q25 top line, non-IFRS operating income and IFRS net profit 2.0%, 41% and 57% vs. our estimate. 
• While there are a few product positives supporting outperformance, the main driver is still trade-in subsidy (TIS), which will start to end in C3Q25;
• We continue to view Xiaomi as having an enviable market position as a “Huawei without the sanctions”, its valuation has also become very rich.

• We expect the Trump tariffs announced on Taiwan (base for suppliers/production of Plover Bay) to slightly affect growth rates for H1 FY25 and estimate a 15%/13% YoY revenue/profit growth number. 
• A 32% tariff was imposed on Taiwan suppliers; however, electronic items, including routers, were subsequently excluded. Nonetheless, overall business sentiment had already been negatively impacted before these adjustments.
• Trading at 19.4x FY25e earnings (assuming a reversion to 15% growth), the stock is somewhat fairly valued, although we love this name’s execution and long-term track record. 

• VEON last week announced it has secured regulatory approvals for its tower asset partnership with Engro Corp in Pakistan, unlocking US$563 million in value. 
• Cash portion of funds will be paid in tranches and received in Pakistan, with flexibility to upstream capital or reinvest locally.
• Transaction supports VEON’s ongoing transformation at the Group level and digital growth strategy in Pakistan while offering a roadmap for similar value creation in Ukraine.

AFT Pharmaceuticals reported FY25 revenues of N Z$208m, posting a strong recovery in H2, with dissipating headwinds and traditional H2 seasonality offsetting the softer H1 performance. H225 revenues (N Z$121.3m) grew 40% over H125 and 9% y-o-y, driven by sustained domestic market momentum and international market recovery. The FY25 operating margin of 8.5% (12.4% in FY24) was affected by lower licensing income and investments in marketing, R&D and international expansion, but these investments should deliver upside opportunities in the longer term. The balance sheet remains strong (net debt reduced to N Z$14.5m, 0.7x EBITDA), supporting the announcement of a 1.8c per share dividend (c 17% payout ratio). Management aims to achieve N Z$300m in revenues by end-FY27 and has guided for operating profit of N Z$20–24m in FY26, with increased operating leverage in the medium term. We update our valuation for AFT to N Z$691.4m or N Z$6.59/share, from N Z$697.4m or N Z$6.65/share previously.

• Eurasia Mining joined AIM in 1999 as a Russia-focused metals and mining company.
• Initially in a JV with Anglo Platinum, the company undertook extensive exploration (gold, gold-copper & PGMs) in the Urals and the Kola Peninsula, which led to the West Kytlim and Monchetundra discoveries that Eurasia went on to acquire.
• The company has successfully advanced battery metals and hydrogen metal mines into production in the Russian Arctic.

• Q4 FY3/25 results showed OP margin improvement YoY (Q4 FY3/24 6.1%, Q4 FY3/25 6.3%) as both DH Group (formerly Entertainment) and AGEST Group (formerly Enterprise) improved margins, although consolidated OP saw a small decline (-4.1% YoY).
• DH Group’s segment OP declined (-9.9% YoY), but the segment OP margin improved (Q4 FY3/24 7.1%, Q4 FY3/25 7.3%), reflecting the sale of a low-margin subsidiary.
• AGEST Group’s segment OP increased (+8.4% YoY) with the improved segment OP margin (Q4 FY3/24 4.5%, Q4 FY3/25 5.1%) on the back of better profitability in overseas QA Solutions than Q4 FY3/24. 

• The recent earnings of Grab Holdings Limited for the first quarter of 2025 presented a mixed picture of the company’s performance and strategic outlook.
• On the positive side, Grab reported robust growth, with a 17% year-over-year increase in on-demand Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and a record number of monthly transacting users.
• This growth translated into another quarter of record revenues.

• Rumors That Mediatek’s Upcoming Chips Could Outperform Apple’s Chips Used in the iPhone 17
• Samsung Beats TSMC to Win Key Nintendo Switch 2 Contract
• PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches 

• FY25 consolidated revenue surpassed INR 10,000 crore mark, increasing 8.9% year-on-year. Emerging businesses contributed over 30% to revenue.  
• Despite achieving the revenue milestone, Q4 performance and FY25 margins were impacted by cautious customer order patterns due to US tariff uncertainty.  
• The company is de-risking its geographical exposure by reducing reliance on the US while focusing on the potential from the UK FTA and strengthening its domestic presence, through strategic acquisition.

• In reviewing Ecolab’s first-quarter 2025 financial performance, the company demonstrated notable strengths alongside areas presenting challenges.
• Ecolab reported double-digit earnings per share (EPS) growth, achieving a 12% increase, even as organic sales climbed by 3%.
• This robust performance highlights the company’s ability to maintain an upward trajectory despite a weakening demand in some end markets.

• Triveni reported record revenue and PAT for Q4 FY25, largely driven by the exceptional performance of the Power Transmission business and improved sugar realisations despite operational challenges
• The strong performance of the Power Transmission segment and strategic focus on exports highlights its potential as a key growth driver, while the proposed restructuring aims to unlock values.  
• Company is guiding for improvement in each segment including Sugar, IMIL and transmission in the upcoming year.

• Finolex Industries (FNXP IN) is a leading, vertically integrated Indian PVC manufacturer, the 2nd largest in PVC resin and 3rd in pipes & fittings, with captive production offering cost advantage.
• Margin recovery in FY26 is targeted post headwinds faced by industry via pricing correction, improved product mix, enhanced discount management, and cost efficiency programs. 
• Potential ADD/BIS mandates mid-FY26 may curb Chinese imports, possibly enabling a 5–10% domestic price increase, reshaping the market.

• Vesuvius India has a strong track record of double-digit revenue and profit growth, supported by robust return ratios like 32% ROCE and a debt-free balance sheet.
• With ongoing capacity expansions and rising contribution to the parent’s revenue and EBITDA, India is now a key growth engine for the group.
• Despite premium valuations, the company’s execution strength and industry tailwinds make it a compelling long-term play.

• What you need to know: • The metals and mining market continued its strong run in May, driven by inflationary concerns due to the trade war and geopolitical tensions.
• • In May, gold was up 1.8%, silver was up 1.7%, and copper was also up 1.7%.
• The equities outperformed the commodities, with the GDX up 3.3%, GDXJ up 6.4%, SIL up 5.9%, and COPX up 8.7%.

• In the first five months of 2025, 63 primary-listed companies conducted S$930 million in share buybacks, up 84% from 2024.
• UOB led May buybacks with S$144 million, followed by DBS at S$18 million and Olam Group at S$6 million.
• STI Banks accounted for 77% of 2025 buybacks, with DBS, UOB, and OCBC launching significant buyback programs.

• Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN) achieved record consolidated revenue and profits in FY25 and holds a strong cash position over INR 3,500 crore.
• However, the company estimates a significant potential dip in revenue (20%) and profits (30%) for FY26 due to US market pressures and high R&D spend.
• This signals near-term headwinds, while long-term growth remains tied to pipeline progress, particularly Semaglutide and Resplan launches in India, and strategic acquisitions.

• The TJX Companies, Inc. reported its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2026, demonstrating resilient performance across its various divisions amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment.
• The company achieved a 3% increase in comparable store sales, driven by higher customer transactions, with each division—both in the U.S. and internationally—contributing positively.
• Notable growth was observed in the HomeGoods division, which outperformed its competitors, delivering a 4% increase in comp sales and a 70 basis point improvement in segment profit margin compared to the previous year.

• Kakula mining is suspended due to seismic activity; dewatering and repairs are ongoing, with potential resolution by late Q3 2025 as operations gradually stabilize.
• Ivanhoe quadrupled copper output since 2021, maintaining over 55% EBITDA margins through high-grade ore and efficient operations.
• At US$2,000/t copper reserve value, Ivanhoe offers 40%+ upside—past disruptions like Vale and Freeport saw strong rebounds as uncertainty cleared.

• DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) reported robust Q1 FY25 results, driven by an increase in MAUs to 7.5 million (6.5 in Q4). The company maintained its market share at ~45%.
• Net margins expanded 200 bps QoQ (to 18.2%), as the company benefited from a 500 bps reduction in its share of GGR to PAGCOR. 
• The stock has increased by >400% since January 2024, but it trades at 14.1x FY25 PE, with growth catalysts from the Philippines and Brazil expected in the future. 

• Workday Inc. reported a robust first quarter of fiscal year 2026, demonstrating solid growth in key financial metrics and notable advancements in its strategic initiatives.
• The company reported a 13% increase in subscription revenue, reaching $2.059 billion, and achieved a non-GAAP operating margin of 30.2%.
• This performance was driven by strong customer adoption across various industries, solid contributions from their partner ecosystem, and a continued focus on AI innovation.

• Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption, marking a defining moment in its trajectory as a dominant AI chipmaker.
• The company reported a 69% year-over-year revenue surge to $44.1 billion, outperforming expectations despite the mid-April U.S. government ban on H20 GPU sales to China.
• The data center segment remained the primary growth engine, rising 73% to $39.1 billion, driven by rising AI infrastructure demand and the adoption of its cutting-edge Blackwell architecture.

• Target Corporation faced a set of challenging conditions in the first quarter of 2025, significantly impacting its overall performance.
• The detailed analysis of the quarterly results reveals a balanced mix of positive aspects, setbacks, and strategic adjustments, offering investors insights into the company’s current standing and future priorities.
• First-quarter sales for Target declined by 2.8%, primarily driven by a decrease in comparable sales of 3.8%.

• The Home Depot, during its first quarter of fiscal 2025, reported sales of $39.9 billion, which represented a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year.
• However, the company’s comparable store sales declined slightly by 0.3%.
• The U.S. comps showed a modest increase of 0.2%.

• The “Value Up” initiative which kicked off in February 2024 has been intended to bring about corporate governance and market reforms which minority and especially foreign investors have long sought
• So far, these voluntary reforms have brought positive albeit limited benefits to South Korean equities; presidential elections, with potential legislative change, should act as a positive valuation driver
• We reiterate our positive views on Woori and Hana Financial which are the top banks based on our scorecard; these attributes are due to  attractive valuations and balance sheet credentials

• During its second quarter earnings for fiscal 2025, Toll Brothers, Inc. outlined its financial and operational performance amidst a challenging economic environment, providing insights into its strategies and market outlook.
• Toll Brothers reported robust financial performance for the second quarter, achieving record second quarter home sales revenue of $2.71 billion, which surpassed the midpoint of their guidance by $236 million.
• They delivered 2,899 homes at an average selling price of approximately $934,000.

• A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.
• Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.
• Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.

• Aurora World is best known for its plush toys (Palm Pals and YooHoo & Friends). It is increasingly trying to leverage its toy character brands to expand into digital contents. 
• What makes Aurora World so interesting is its excellent fundamentals and deeply discounted valuations relative to The Pinkfong Company (IPO in 2H25) and SAMG Entertainment.
• Aurora World generated more than 80% of its sales in overseas markets including the United States, U.K., and Hong Kong. 

• NetEase, during its 2025 first quarter financial results presentation, outlined its performance and future strategies across various segments.
• The company reported an increase in total net revenue by 7.4% year-over-year, reaching RMB 28.8 billion, driven primarily by its gaming division, which witnessed a 12% increase in revenue.
• Net revenue from online games was notably high, with a growth of 14% quarter-over-quarter and 15% year-over year, emphasizing the success of titles like “Where Winds Meet” and “Marvel Rivals.” Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• MARA Holdings recently held its first quarter 2025 earnings call, offering insights into both its current operations and future strategies.
• The company faces a mixed landscape shaped by Bitcoin’s fluctuating value, which significantly impacts shareholder sentiment and the company’s stock performance.
• Notably, MARA aligns with the view of Bitcoin as a macro hedge, comparable to gold, which is particularly relevant amid volatile market conditions.

• Cisco Systems, Inc. exhibited robust performance in its third quarter of fiscal year 2025, surpassing revenue, margins, and earnings expectations.
• The company reported total revenue of $14.1 billion, marking a substantial 11% year-over-year increase.
• This growth was driven by significant expansion in product revenue, especially in areas such as networking, which saw an 8% increase, and security, which surged by 54%, primarily due to contributions from Splunk and SASE offerings.

• JFrog’s Q1 2025 financial results reflect both accomplishments and ongoing challenges.
• The company reported total revenue of $122.4 million, up 22% year-over-year, driven significantly by strong cloud revenue which rose by 42% to $52.6 million.
• This growth underscores JFrog’s strategic focus on cloud solutions and enterprise migrations toward its SaaS offering.

• Expedia Group’s recent financial results for Q1 2025 present a complex blend of performance metrics that reveal both strengths and areas of concern.
• The company’s gross bookings climbed by 4% to $31.5 billion, while revenue increased by 3% to $3 billion, aligning with expectations but reflecting a modest growth trajectory.
• The growth has been hampered by weaker travel demand within and into the U.S., despite strong performances elsewhere.

• Dynatrace reported a robust performance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, showcasing significant accomplishments across various key metrics.
• The company’s subscription revenue experienced a 20% increase, reaching $1.62 billion, while the Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) stood at $1.73 billion, marking a 17% growth.
• The non-GAAP operating margin expanded by over 100 basis points, and the pre-tax free cash flow margin improved by roughly 250 basis points, underlining the company’s effective balance between growth and profitability.

• dLocal delivered a first-quarter 2025 result that showcased both strong financial performance and ongoing strategic advancements, accompanied by notable business developments and challenges.
• The total payment volume (TPV) reached $8.1 billion, marking a significant 53% growth year-over-year, which further increases to 72% in constant currency terms.
• This growth was led by robust performance in cross-border payments, particularly in regions like Chile, Pakistan, Nigeria, Turkey, and Brazil across sectors including remittances, commerce, and financial services.

• Installed Building Products (IBP) reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, reflecting mixed performance amidst a challenging macroeconomic landscape affecting the construction industry.
• The company’s performance was impacted by housing market dynamics and adverse weather conditions, although strategic initiatives and a strong operating framework provided some balance.
• On the positive side, IBP maintained a solid financial base with significant cash flow, highlighting its capacity for growth via acquisitions.

• DaVita Inc. (DVA) has recently disclosed its financial results for the first quarter of 2025.
• The company faced significant challenges, most notably a cybersecurity incident, which disrupted operations.
• Despite these setbacks, DaVita succeeded in maintaining its patient care levels and mitigating the impact on its core services.

• TSMC: +22% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: -1.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Discount Before Going Long the Spread
• CHT: +0.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at This Level or Higher

• Samsung 3nm yields improving (50-60%) but still far behind TSMC (85-90%)
• SK Hynix is finalizing HBM4 agreements with Nvidia, Samsung is still not qualified for HBM3e.
• Huawei into semiconductor chemicals? The vulnerability is photo-resist, but that’s very hard to do 

• Texas Roadhouse reported its first quarter financial results, demonstrating both strengths and challenges in its business performance.
• The company recorded a revenue of over $1.4 billion, with same-store sales increasing by 3.5% and average weekly sales reaching all-time highs.
• Notably, March experienced the highest weekly sales across Texas Roadhouse’s three brands: Texas Roadhouse, Bubba’s 33, and Jaggers.

• Operating Business did well with filing revenues marginally declining and food ware business growing
• One off write off investment in associate and intangible asset
• Maintain the view that Risk Reward are asymmetrical as the company trades below cash

• Cloudflare reported its financial performance for Q1 2025, showcasing several encouraging outcomes along with some aspects that warrant attention.
• The company achieved a revenue of $479.1 million, marking a 27% increase year-over-year.
• This growth was primarily driven by the addition of large customers, with 3,527 clients contributing over $100,000 annually—a 23% year-over-year rise.

• In this insight, we provide 3 major fundamental criteria for screening major Korean F&B companies. 
• Three major criteria include 3 years CAGR revenue growth of 5% or more, increase in net margin in 2024, and overseas sales more than 10% of total sales.
• Of the 30 Korean F&B companies mentioned in this insight, only six companies meet these criteria including Samyang Foods, Orion Corp, Hitejinro, Lotte Wellfood, Daesang Corporation, and Pulmuone.

• Carvana Co.’s latest earnings for Q1 2025 highlighted several key achievements as well as ongoing challenges.
• The company reported robust growth across several financial metrics, reflecting the effectiveness of its business model in a competitive and fragmented automotive retail industry.
• On the positive side, Carvana achieved record retail units sold at 133,898, representing a 46% increase year over-year.

• Paramount Global’s Q1 2025 financial results presented a mixed picture of the company’s performance and strategic positioning.
• On the positive side, Paramount reported a 2% revenue growth, when excluding the Super Bowl, alongside a significant year-over-year improvement in Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) OIBDA by approximately $180 million.
• The company also generated $123 million in free cash flow, demonstrating efficient cash management amid a challenging advertising environment.

• Royalty Pharma PLC’s recent earnings results for the first quarter of 2025 outline a period of significant financial performance and strategic initiatives.
• The company reported a 12% increase in royalty receipts, demonstrating solid cash flow stemming from its diversified portfolio.
• Total portfolio receipts grew by 17%, boosted by variable milestones and contractual payments, indicating a strong top-line performance.

• HubSpot reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting continued growth and strategic momentum.
• Revenue increased by 18% year-over-year in constant currency, driven by several key trends.
• The company added over 10,000 net new customers, bringing its total customer base to 258,000, with customer growth driven by platform consolidation, upmarket expansion, and robust downmarket acquisition.

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Sasseur REIT’s CFO, Mr. Xie Jianfeng, Head of Asset Management, Mr. Cheng Hsing Yuen, and Head of Investor Relations & Capital Markets, Ms. Helen Qiu.

In the upcoming webinar, the Sasseur REIT team will share a short company presentation after which, they will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Garreth Elston. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 25 June 2025, 16:30 SGT.

About Sasseur REIT

Sasseur REIT is the first retail outlet mall REIT listed in Asia. Sasseur REIT offers investors
the unique opportunity to invest in the fast-growing retail outlet mall sector in China through
its initial portfolio of four quality retail outlet mall assets strategically located in fast-growing
Chinese cities such as Chongqing, Kunming and Hefei, with a combined net lettable area of
310,241 square metres.

Sasseur REIT is established with the investment strategy to invest principally, directly or
indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for
retail outlet mall purposes, as well as real estate-related assets in relation to the foregoing,
with an initial focus on Asia.

You can view their latest factsheet here.

For more information on Sasseur REIT, please visit http://www.sasseurreit.com/

• Mazda leaped upward with other Auto companies following a Court of International Trade ruling that nullified Trump’s reciprocal tariffs but left auto tariffs at 25%.
• The CIT has historically given presidents much more leeway on rules that the auto tariffs fall under, so challenges to these tariffs are less likely to succeed.
• The tariff threat to Mazda is existential, and in our view, consensus forecasts have not even begun to appreciate this.

• NVIDIA reported Q1FY26 revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY and up 12% QoQ
• NVIDIA forecasted current quarter revenues of $45.0 billion, marginally up QoQ and weighed down by the loss of around $8 billion in previously anticipated H20 revenues
• Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China market was inevitable, even without US restrictions.

• MNSO reported 1Q25 rev. in line with cons. but non-GAAP op. profit 17% below and GAAP net income 33% below cons, 
• We view MNSO’s store expansion as being below its bar of quality. Downside risks were not fully priced in. Our 2025 revenue/net profit forecasts are 7.0%/8.2% below consensus;
• We cut the TP from US$16 to US$13.5/ADS and keep the SELL rating.

Mammoth Energy (Tusk) has undergone a transformation and is a potentially undervalued small cap stock with limited downside

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Nippon Steel targets over 100 Mt capacity by 2030, focusing on global growth as Japan’s domestic demand shrinks.
• It plans to acquire U.S. Steel for $14.9B and expand in India via AMNS joint ventures.
• FY24 profit rose 36%, but export reliance, ESG lag, and U.S. deal hurdles pose risks.

• The Industrial Bank Of Korea (024110 KS)/ Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• The relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
• This Insight discusses trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, and risk management strategies.

• Occidental Petroleum’s recent earnings call for the first quarter of 2025 presented a mixed but detailed view of the company’s operational and financial performance, showcasing both strengths and challenges.
• The management highlighted a solid execution across its diversified portfolio, despite facing some market headwinds and external uncertainties.
• On the positive side, Occidental generated $3 billion in operating cash flow before working capital adjustments, maintaining oil and gas production at just over 1.39 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, which aligns with their guidance.

• Sarda’s near-term growth will be driven by the full-year contribution from SKS Power, boosting earnings visibility.
• The business mix is shifting structurally from steel to power, which now contributes over 60% of EBIT. Low leverage at <1x EV/EBITDA is a positive.
• The recent weakness in spot power prices is seen as temporary; at 15x FY27 EV/EBITDA, the stock offers strong upside.

• Globus Spirits continues its strategic pivot towards high-margin consumer business, with P&A revenue up 186% in FY25 and Regular & Others up 17%.
• The manufacturing segment’s margins are stabilising due to favourable government ethanol policies and raw material availability, enhancing overall profitability.
• This shift, coupled with significant investments in the key Uttar Pradesh market and near completion of major capex, positions the company for continued profitable growth, reinforcing a positive view.

• Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies & landing in Taiwan. 
• He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
• NVIDIA’s market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.

• Metaplanet, the Tokyo-listed firm modelling itself after MicroStrategy, continues to rapidly expand its Bitcoin holdings.
• For now, equity markets are playing along. Metaplanet’s share price has surged 30% in the past week
• But with the firm trading at nearly 6x its net asset value, market enthusiasm looks stretched

• Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus. 
• The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen’s point: “it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed”. The Good Times Keep Rolling.
• This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.

• AZEK recently shared its second-quarter fiscal 2025 financial results, highlighting both positive performances and notable challenges.
• The quarter saw consolidated net sales grow by 8% year-over-year to $452 million, while the residential segment led growth with a 9% year-over-year increase in net sales.
• This robust performance was driven by mid-single-digit sell-through growth and continued expansion in product lines such as TimberTech and AZEK Exteriors.

• Novo Nordisk A/S reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing strong growth across its operations, though facing certain challenges.
• The company delivered an 18% increase in sales and a 20% growth in operating profit, reflecting robust demand for its diabetes and obesity treatments.
• These positive results underscore the company’s ongoing market leadership, with approximately 46 million patients currently benefiting from its treatment solutions.

• AppLovin, a leader in performance marketing, has recently announced its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting its robust growth trajectory despite external challenges.
• The company has navigated market volatility, such as short-seller scrutiny and broader economic conditions, by focusing on emerging opportunities in the advertising sector.
• This quarter is especially significant due to its strategic decision to divest its games business entirely, further sharpening its focus on advertising technology.

• Deepak Fertilisers & Petro (DFPC IN) reported robust Q4 and full-year FY25 results, crossing INR 10,000 crores in revenue and doubling PAT year-on-year for FY25.
• The strong financial outcomes validate the company’s strategy of aligning with India’s growth story and transitioning from commodities to higher-margin specialty products.
• Improved financial health, reduced net debt, and strategic capex nearing completion position DFPCL for future growth and potentially higher profitability despite near-term segment-specific pressures.

• China represents ~11% of revenues for Cadence and Synopsys. The weight of China has been declining. 
• China has a number of startup working on replacement software, the leader is Empyrean – good but some years behind Cadence and Synopsys and focused on legacy chip design. 
• Between this news today and more restrictions on Nvidia’s sales to China, it looks like more US restrictions will come.

• Uber Technologies’ Q1 2025 earnings call provided insights into the company’s performance, operations, and strategic outlook.
• The results reflected robust growth across key metrics, albeit in a competitive and dynamic environment.
• Here’s a synopsis of the key points from the call, reflecting both strengths and challenges faced by the company.

• Walt Disney’s second-quarter 2025 earnings report was met with a wave of investor enthusiasm, driving the stock up 11% to over $102.
• This optimism was not only driven by stronger-than-expected financials but also by the high-profile announcement of a new theme park in Abu Dhabi.
• The planned park marks Disney’s seventh globally and is set to be developed in collaboration with the Miral Group.