Equity Bottom-Up

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
• In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

• Formosa Prosonic is a very cheap stock. Cash on its Balance Sheet is MYR 1.65 which is way higher than stock price.
• Operating business has been consistently profitable & generated very good ROE & is available for free. 
• Stock has been falling as Wistron the largest shareholder has decided to exit its holding as part of strategic overview which we think is a Buying opportunity

• Asian Terminals (ATI PM — US$941 million) is a Philippines-based port operator.
• It’s owned by Eusebio (“Yosi”) Tanco, recently famous for having hit a jackpot with online bingo operator DigiPlus and school operator STI Education.
• Asian Terminals has also done exceptionally well. It was set up in the 1980s and managed to acquire the Manila South Harbor port in the early 1990s.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlight: Three Aussie pair trade opportunities across three sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) rallied by 132% since our last Insight, fueled by the euphoria in the brokerage and securities sector on the HK government’s stablecoin initiative.
• At HK$16.44, it is at 100% PER premium to the sector average, ex-Guotai Junan International (1788 HK). The risk-reward payoff now looks less attractive.
• It also implies net profit to grow by 150% by FY31F and priced at 18x PER. This appears stretched in the near term, though long-term prospects stay decent. 

• Revenue peaked in FY23 but margins have declined due to cost pressures and impairments.
• The company is exiting underperforming assets and expanding in fine carbon, furnaces, and carbon black.
• At ¥1,010, it trades at ~19.6x FY25e P/E, in line with peers but below book at 0.8x P/B.

• Context: The Region (RGN AU) vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: The pair shows strong alignment in both statistical terms and fundamental metrics and factors.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Past Performance: Revenues stable; margins improved due to semiconductor growth, despite weak performance in legacy chemicals and graphite electrodes.
• Strategy & Shutdown: Shutting 30% electrode capacity; refocusing on high-margin semiconductor, SiC, and packaging materials with ¥330 bn capex planned by FY25.
• Valuation: Trades at 8x EV/EBITDA and 14x P/E FY25E; re-rating possible with higher margins and semiconductor mix.

• Recent Results: Q1 EBITDA surged 38% YoY to ₹7,576 Cr, driven by volume ramp-up, improved product mix, and lower coking coal costs.
• FY26 Guidance: Company maintains production at 30.5 mt and sales at 29.2 mt, reflecting confidence in its ramp-up and downstream expansion roadmap.
• Valuation & Growth: Trading at ~18× FY27E P/E and ~7× EV/EBITDA—above global peers—justified by projected 20% EBITDA and 23% EPS growth into FY27.

• Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stock picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (18 July to 1 August 2025).
• Our top 10 picks were up on average 4.5% in the past two weeks, slightly outperforming KOSPI which was up 4.4% in the same period.
• The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Hanil Cement, LG CNS, KCC Corp, Poongsan, Paradise, Samsung Electronics, Naver, SM Entertainment, LG Chem, and SK Inc. 

• The US-China decoupling is resulting in geo-political risks, causing structural changes to China’s manufacturing and logistics sector.  Companies re-locate their supply chains due to “China Plus One” strategy. 
• Despite E-commerce remains as a long-term strong driver for China logistics, the sector is facing severe over-supply in the near term.  National vacancy is 20.3% at Q1 2025
• We recommend SHORT MapleTree Logistics Trust, due to its significant exposure to China logistics.  DPU, NPI and ROE are on downward trend

• BHP reported strong operations overall for fiscal Q4/25, with iron ore, copper and coal production up yoy and a qoq recovery after rough Q3/25 Australian weather
• The company released 2026E guidance, with the low-end indicating production declines for the three major divisions, although this was expected by the market 
• We remain concerned of potential iron ore and copper price reversals, while the shares trade near our DCF value and at a moderate premium to big cap iron ore 

• TSMC reported Q225 revenues of $30.1 billion, up 44% YoY, up 17.8% QoQ and handily beating the high end of the $29.2 billion guidance.
• Full year 2025 guidance raised to 30% YoY growth, and that may still not be enough
• Resumption of H20 sales to China not yet baked into forecast, an army of ex Intel employees coming on the job market & potential Fx reversal are all possible tailwinds

• Samsonite (1910 HK), the world’s leading travel luggage manufacturer/retailer, is trading well below its historical metrics. 
• The share price is up ~30% from its recent low, but down ~22% YTD following a ~31% fall over a 10-day period in early-April, shortly after Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech. 
• Management initiated a US$200mn buyback program last August. Overhangs include tariff and weak retail market in Asia and North America. Plus short selling has touched an all-time high.

• Cochlear Limited recently announced its half-year results for fiscal year 2025.
• In its earnings call, the company disclosed a mixed performance across its business segments.
• On the positive side, the company reported a strong 13% growth in Cochlear implant revenue and an even stronger 22% growth in Acoustics revenue, leading to an overall net sales increase of 6% in constant currency.

• James Hardie Industries Plc demonstrated a mixed performance in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, underpinned by its strategic growth initiatives amidst challenging market conditions.
• Despite facing a softer demand environment and macroeconomic uncertainties, the company managed to achieve its financial targets, indicative of its strategic agility and operational discipline.
• On the positive side, James Hardie’s focus on strategic investments and scaling the organization has borne fruit.

• TotalEnergies’ Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 17.2% QoQ and 19.4% YoY. Similarly, its EPS is projected to drop 8.7% QoQ and 15.7% YoY.
• TotalEnergies is expected to post its weakest quarterly revenue and EPS reading since Q1 2021, as falling crude and LNG prices overshadow gains in refining.
• With 80% of earnings tied to upstream and LNG, even strong production and steady downstream performance leave little room for upside.

• Agilent is a leading provider of instruments, services, and consumables for labs in the life sciences, diagnostics, applied chemical markets, and R&D sectors
• With a market cap of $30 billion, Agilent was born within Hewlett Packard and spun off more than 25 years ago
• Agilent has a total addressable market of $160 billion and has a history dating back to 1938, starting as a testing instrument for audio equipment used by Disney in the production of Fantasia

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Northern Star Resources Ltd’s March 2025 quarterly results showcased a strong financial and operational performance, despite facing some operational challenges.
• The company generated robust net mine cash flow of $295 million, with positive contributions from all production centers.
• The gold price, exceeding AUD 5,000 per ounce, aided this financial strength, alongside the company’s low-risk mining jurisdictions in Western Australia and Alaska.

• IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.
• The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?
• For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.

• • The Paradox initial processing capacity is envisaged to be able to handle 5-10 mmcf/d.
• Our base case assumes a conservative 5 mmcf/d, although throughput capacity is expected to increase with the tie-in of additional wells, including 16-2LN-CC and 28-11.
• Notably, the plant’s initial capacity is below the production potential of the 36-2R well.

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s recent financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, reveal a balanced mix of robust growth and strategic challenges, providing a comprehensive overview of the company’s current performance and future outlook.
• On the positive front, the company reported operating revenue of $2.02 billion, marking a 16% increase from the previous year.
• This growth is primarily driven by broad-based expansion across its hospital consumables portfolio and significant contributions from the obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) masks.

• NT$ appreciation large impact on revenue / margins but TSMC beats consensus in 2Q, 3Q guidance is in-line. FX impact is partially neutralize by other factors (utilization, cost control) .
• This will be controversial: management increase 2025 US$-revenue growth from mid-20 to 30%. Yet, this implies that 4Q25 US$-revenue growth will collapse to 9% YoY and NT$-growth will be negative.
• At same time, mngt gives a long list of very positive messages on AI demand, N2 ramp, full utilization of EUV nodes.  This could lead to short-term stock price weakness.

• TSMC Beats, Raises, and Confirms AI Ramp Is Real, Despite FX Drag
• Conclusion — Maintain Structural Long View, 2026 Growth Likely Underappreciated
• TSMC ADR Premium Rebounds to 23.6% — US Investor Positioning Skewed Toward TSMC’s Unique AI Exposure

• 3Q25 Guidance: Revenue: US$31.8–33.0 billion (approx. 8% QoQ growth); Gross Margin: 55.5–57.5%; Operating Margin: 45.5–47.5%.
• Despite FX headwinds, TSMC aims to maintain gross margin ≥ 53%  
• Driven by strong demand in AI (including sovereign AI) and HPC; Full-year USD revenue growth outlook raised to ~30% YoY.

• Geely announced that its deliveries grew by 42% YoY in June 2025.
• We expect BEV deliveries will continue to grow fast in 3Q25, but slow down from 4Q25.
• We believe the stock price will rise by 39% for the next twelve months.

• Square Enix holds globally recognized IP with monetization upside across platforms, and recent pipeline discipline signals a shift toward higher-margin, high-quality titles that can stabilize earnings and restore growth.
• Activist involvement is intensifying, creating strong pressure for capital returns, governance reform, and strategic clarity – unlocking shareholder value in a business that remains structurally underleveraged and undervalued vs peers.
• With operating margins improving, digital sales accelerating, and cost structures being realigned, Square Enix is positioned to re-rate meaningfully as investor confidence rebuilds and management delivers on core turnaround objectives.

• The tragic crash of Air India Flight 171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, on June 12, 2025, initially triggered global alarm over the safety of Boeing’s aircraft, evoking chilling memories of the 737 MAX debacle.
• However, a preliminary report by India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) appears to shift attention away from mechanical failure and toward pilot actions.
• According to the report, both fuel control switches were inexplicably moved from the “RUN” to the “CUTOFF” position seconds after takeoff—starving both engines of fuel.

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Computershare presented a robust performance in its first-half FY ’25 results.
• The company reported Management Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.653, an 18.7% increase over the previous period, driven by strong business momentum despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate changes.
• The company’s management aims to build a simplified, high-quality, and capital-light business model, as evidenced by their recent divestment of the U.S. Mortgage Services business.

• We are bullish on the long-term growth of the hospital sector in India.
• Like in the case of Apollo Hospitals, Max Healthcare will have tough competition from both listed and unlisted players.
• A 65 FPE does not factor in the high cost of expansion and potential challenges.

• Update on changes to and revisions of analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions

• We believe that toymakers are experiencing a bubble like rally led by Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) and Hasbro Inc (HAS US) which raised forecasts recently. 
• Dream International (1126 HK) has returned >200% since liberation day tariffs were declared on April 2nd 2025 and now trades at 12.7x trailing earnings (vs 3.7x when we initiated). 
•  “Never look a gift horse in the mouth” ! .We would take some money off the table here as toy stocks go through periods of cyclicality due restocking/destocking.

• Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held Hongkong Land (HKL SP), JMH’s largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. 
• HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management – read deleveraging.
• The recent appointment of PAG’s Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That’s not unreasonable.

• Asian buybacks, dominated by HK, China and Korea, are skyrocketing.  In H125, buybacks more than doubled from their full year 2024 levels in HK/China and increased 40% in Korea. 
• We screen companies repurchasing consistently, with total buyback of minimum $1bn and buyback over 2024-25 of at least 2% of present market cap, yielding companies in HK(11), Korea(6), Philippines(2), Singapore(1).
• Top five repurchasers are Alibaba, Tencent, China Communication Construction, AIA, Netease. These, barring the third, are up more than 20% this year. Share price support from buybacks do seem solid.

• Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.
• China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.
• While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.

• Adobe Inc.’s second quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025 demonstrate a strong performance, marked by significant revenue growth and strategic advancements in its core business segments.
• The company’s total revenue reached $5.87 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, with a noteworthy contribution from its Digital Media sector, which achieved $4.35 billion in revenue.
• This sector’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew to $18.09 billion, reflecting a 12.1% increase.

• As Kinatico transitions to a new compliance SaaS solution, the legacy business provides funding for the new service development and a pool of potential customers

• Jubilant Pharmova is investing over USD 285 million to expand its PET radiopharmacy sites, CDMO Sterile Injectables, and CRDMO capacity (FTEs from 1,000 to 4,000 by FY27). 
• These segments, contributing over 80% of FY25 EBITDA, are positioned for faster growth and margin expansion, with Line 3 in Spokane expected to reach peak utilization in 3 years.
• A pivot towards higher-margin businesses with targeted RoCE above 20% enhances confidence in achieving Vision 2030 goals of doubling revenue and reaching 23–25% EBITDA margins.

• Stock is down -10%. The 2026 revenue comment (“while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage“), confusion on EUV growth should explain it.
• Number of EUV machines sold is flat but ASP is up 30% as machine’s throughput is up 30%. EUV revenue growth is in the mix, not units.
• China: I don’t know what they tried to say. Healthy demand in China, not falling off a cliff. But wait, China 1H25 revenue have declined -28% YoY.

• ASML today reported second quarter revenues of €7.7 billion, bang at the top of the guided range, flat QoQ and up 23% YoY
• Guided 2025 at 15% growth (~€35 billion), a big step up in confidence from the €30-€35 billion range given last quarter
• Comments regarding uncertainty about 2026 outlook and tariff impacts likely led to the >7% sell off currently happening in pre-market trading.

• Akzo Nobel’s results for the first quarter of 2025 demonstrated resilience amidst a challenging economic backdrop.
• The company reported flat organic sales with a slight volume decline of 2%, offset by a positive price/mix of 2%.
• This was partly due to strong pricing strategies and cost reduction efforts that mitigated softer market conditions and inflationary pressures.

• The August 1st deadline is approaching, and it seems a bit unclear whether a deal with Vietnam has been reached on a 20% tariff or something lower. 
• With no formal agreement and just Trump’s Truth Social account as a reference, uncertainty looms. For HK-listed companies, the understanding is that they will pass on tariffs to their customers. 
• We summarize this in our call with Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) following the results. We also provide updates for Pacific Textiles (1382 HK) and other names. 

• TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst
• UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
• ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread

• Core Business acceleration: Business segment sales +28% YoY, driven by Mid-sized corporate strength; ARR +32% YoY to ¥29.6bn.
• Non-Core drag explains topline miss: Total sales +11.7% YoY to ¥11.5bn vs est. ¥12.1bn; ex-Hirac Fund, sales +18% YoY.
• Margin strength: Record-high EBITDA of ¥0.8bn (7% margin), achieved without one-off gains; signals improving core profitability.

• US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     
• It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   
• For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).

• Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.
• However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company’s underlying earnings potential
• With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.

• India’s largest HF company with a stable loan book, supported by LIC’s parentage and a focus on salaried home loans, shows its fundamental strength.  
• The company demonstrates robust operational performance, marked by a decade-high 1.83% Return on Assets (RoA) and a competitive 16% Return on Equity (ROE).  
• It targets future growth by efficiently managing borrowing costs and strategically diversifying into higher-margin segments like project finance and LAP/LRD.

• Eli Lilly has firmly positioned itself at the forefront of the global anti-obesity drug race, fueled by its blockbuster GLP-1-based injectable Zepbound and an upcoming oral pill called orforglipron that could further cement its dominance.
• While rival Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy enjoyed a first-mover advantage, Lilly’s more effective compound tirzepatide rapidly seized control of the market, capturing 60% share and 75% of new treatment starts.
• Despite facing a setback with CVS’s recent formulary switch favoring Wegovy, Lilly continues to add approximately 500,000 new Zepbound patients each month and is expanding aggressively into international markets including India, China, and Mexico.

• Ola Electric reported a strong 35.5% QoQ increase in revenue, with a significant 32.7% increase in vehicle deliveries
• Overall company showed a rebound and improvement in operational and financial performance, along with strong guidance for FY26.
• Though the company continue to face key headwinds in terms of cost pressures, rare-earth related macro headwinds along with increased competition and regulatory challenges.

• Toumei’s Q3 FY08/25 revenue reached JPY21.2bn, a 25.8% YoY increase, with record highs in all profit categories.
• Office Denki 119 revenue rose 44.9% YoY to JPY9.3bn, with segment profit up 104.8% YoY to JPY1.5bn.
• Office Solutions segment revenue grew 64.9% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with profit increasing 47.5% YoY to JPY276mn.

• The Hong Kong office market is now facing multiple headwinds including an oversupply, persistently weak demand and slowdown in Chinese corporates expansion
• Accordingly, the availability rate In Hong Kong office rose to record high, reaching 19.3% as of Q2 2025, according to Cushman.  Vacancy rate in Central is at 13%
• We are bearish on Champion REIT, given its direct exposure to HK Grade A office market

• The sales volume growth rate slowed down month by month in 2Q25.
• The domestic sales volume was stagnant in 2Q25 and decreased YoY from March to June.
• However, competitors expanded aggressively; therefore, we believe small ones may go bankrupt.

• The Supreme Court of Korea plans to make a final ruling on Samsung’s Lee Jae-Yong on 17 July.
• If the Supreme Court confirms this appellate court’s ruling, then Lee Jae-Yong would finally be cleared of all charges related to the Samsung C&T and Cheil Industries merger. 
• The market is mostly expecting the confirmation of “not guilty” on all 19 charges on Lee Jae-Yong.

• This write-up is about Hikari Tsushin — a Japanese sales organization run by a visionary founder called Yasumitsu Shigeta

• It’s been much talked about on Twitter and Substack, but few of the write-ups discuss Hikari Tsushin’s portfolio of publicly listed equities

• I am personally not particularly interested in Hikari Tsushin itself, as it is primarily a sales organization helping other businesses find customers

• Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is launching a 3,395 crore IPO via a complete OFS, with a price band of INR 540–570 per share, open from July 14 to July 16.
• Company is a fully integrated CRDMO with capabilities across drug discovery, development, and manufacturing for both small molecules and biologics, serving 550+ customers globally.
• The company is undertaking a major capacity expansion, set to make its fermentation capacity over 6x larger than the second-largest Indian CRDMO player post-expansion.

• Strong Revenue Momentum and Profitability:Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) achieved INR 18.4bn in revenue in FY25, growing 25% CAGR over FY20–FY25,with industry-leading EBITDA margins of 36.8% and PAT margin of 23.4%
• Unique Dual Capability in Biologics and Small Molecules:Among the few Indian CRDMOs with end-to-end capabilities across both small and large molecules, and technology-driven portfolio including ADCs, RNAi, peptides, and oligonucleotides
• Peer-Leading Returns and Robust Pipeline: Anthem boasts the highest ROCE (26.9%) among Indian peers, with significant IP-backed revenue streams and global molecule commercialization. It is a BUY for long term.

• UnitedHealth Group’s first quarter 2025 results reveal a number of positive developments alongside several challenges that have led to a downward revision of the company’s adjusted earnings per share outlook.
• The company now expects an adjusted earnings per share range of $26 to $26.50, down from previous estimates, partly attributed to higher-than-expected care activity within its Medicare Advantage business and changes in member profiles impacting revenue at Optum Health.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)‘s 1H25 positive profit alert is encouraging, with 1H25 results growing by 55-78% YoY.  
• YTD, CICC has a 59.5% share of the HK IPO market. The solid H-share IPO pipeline of A-share companies is beneficial, as this is its major area of strength.
• Market consensus has underestimated its FY25 earnings, inflating its PER multiples. The current 51% discount of its H-share to A-share is just too steep (average 37.7%).

• Despite initially WARNing of 529 job cuts in Oregon, the actual number turned out to be 2,392
• Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are in management positions
• Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers losing their jobs in Oregon alone.

• FNArena’s Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts.
• Today’s idea is on CSL

• Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) announced that in Q1FY26 the sales of their drug Izervay (avacincaptad pegol intravitreal solution) in the U.S. market will be ¥15.9B (~$110M, up 25% YoY).
• Strategic brands (Padcev, Izervay, Veozah, Vyloy, and Xospata) revenue expanded to ¥336B (+¥176B or +110% YoY) in FY25, representing 18% of the total revenue.
• Astellas agreement with Evopoint Biosciences for a novel investigational clinical-stage antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) targeting CLDN18.2, will help expand its pipeline and augurs well given its expertise in similar therapies (Vyloy).

• Oasis Management disclosed a 5.2% stake, increasing pressure on Casio to improve capital efficiency and strategic clarity.
• City Index disclosed a 5.1% stake, signalling intent to drive value at Nittoku via capital return and improved governance.
• 3D Investment continue to add to Square Enix position. 3D and Dalton likely to target weak margins, bloated cash, and capital inefficiency – lots to work with.

• Zijin has guided for a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit to RMB 23.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold pricing and volume gains.
• Based on this, we see scope to revise our FY2025 PAT and EPS estimates up by 16–19%, and EBITDA by 35–50%.
• The proposed listing of Zijin Gold International in Hong Kong could unlock value from its high-margin overseas gold assets and enhance investor visibility.

• For Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)’s 3Q25 outlook, its revenue is expected to decline by approximately 0–6% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a relative low seasonal factors and order adjustments.  
• Regarding Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)’s partnership with Alphabet (GOOGL US), the TPU v7e is expected to begin tape-out in September 2025.  
• Based on current project developments using TSMC’s 2nm process, MediaTek is highly likely to co-develop the next-generation MTIA v4 ASIC with Meta (META US).

• Volume Data: IEX volumes rose 15% YoY in Q1 FY26, led by strong RTM and Green Market growth.
• Near-Term Outlook: Higher volumes should lift Q1 earnings, with EBITDA and PAT expected to rise ~22%.
• Future Plans: IEX is launching new products like G-RTM and LDCs, and investing in P2P and smart grid tech.

• Orient Overseas International (316 HK)‘s 25.9% YTD surge in share price is difficult to justify, as the load factor started to contract and the average freight rate declined.  
• Transpacific and Asia-Europe freight rates plunged by 14.7% and 17.3% in 2Q25, respectively. The transpacific volume also registered the first YoY decline in the quarter. 
• Its P/B of 0.85x is 1SD above average, and is way higher than FY21-22. However, the FY25F earnings of US$1.5bn are incomparable to US$7-10bn in FY21-22.

• Using SOTP is likely the best way to value COIN going forward as its subscription and services revenue is now more substantial and Circle has just gone public.
• Non-Transaction revenue is being valued at a much higher multiple than transaction revenue. SOTP valuation indicates limited near-term upside from COIN’s current market capitalization.
• Circle’s impact on Coinbase is now twofold: 1) driving its revenue mix shift toward non-transaction revenue; 2) acting as a key benchmark for its non-transaction revenue valuation.

• Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead

• Provaris Energy Ltd (ASX:PV1) represents a unique investment opportunity as a leveraged play on the growing shift to alternative energy and carbon reduction, particularly in Europe, but applicable on a global basis.
• The keystone to production and growth is the company’s proprietary ‘storage tank’ IP, enabling greater volumes of compressed gases to transport at lower cost (‘more for less’).
• The company holds a material early-mover advantage with a number of strategic partnerships and two hydrogen supply, offtake and shipping agreements expected to become unconditional over the next 12 months.

• Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
• The company has announced that total revenue in Q4 increased 15% to $8.5m, with higher-margin SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) revenue making up 52% of the total, compared with 38% of total Q4 revenue in FY24.
• SaaS revenue grew 57% in the quarter on the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $4.4m and is tracking at $17.5m on an annualised basis.

• Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) Q1FY26 revenue of ¥34.7B down 3% YoY, mainly driven by subdued performance in Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products.
• Rx business revenues grew 7% as Zicthoru, Apohide, Combipatch,Vivelle-Dot etc clocked healthy numbers excepting Mohrus product line.
• Hisamitsu reiterated FY26 guidance expecting revenue to be ¥165B with profits growth expected to decelerate on higher cost.

• Local intel says Samsung’s 1c-based 12-high HBM4 is basically locked in to sample to NVIDIA by end of this month or early next.
• No hard proof Samsung hit 70% yield, but inside chatter’s bullish, internal mood’s upbeat, and that’s what’s driving the local market to chase the 1c HBM4 hype.
• With the Samsung Life Law quietly sidelined in recent reform talks, Samsung seems to have read the room and is now going full throttle on the HBM push.

• AES Corp., a major player in renewable and utility power with deep ties to Big Tech, is now exploring strategic options including a potential sale, according to reports.
• The Arlington, Virginia-based company has caught the eye of infrastructure giants such as Brookfield Asset Management and BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) after its stock plummeted nearly 50% over the past two years.
• The stock rebounded sharply—up nearly 20% in a day—amid reports of the takeover interest, bringing its market cap to around $9.4 billion, though its enterprise value still hovers around $40 billion due to high leverage.

• DexCom’s latest earnings and strategy pivot have reignited investor attention as the company recalibrates its focus on the vast, underpenetrated Type 2 diabetes market.
• After suffering a 41% stock drop in July 2024 due to poor execution in its transition away from its traditional Type 1 diabetes stronghold, the company now appears to be correcting course—not by retreating, but by accelerating into the same direction with more refined tactics.
• The first quarter of 2025 showed encouraging signs, including record-breaking new patient additions, expanded insurance coverage from all three major PBMs for non-insulin-dependent patients, and the introduction of Stelo, DexCom’s first over-the-counter CGM.

• Meta Biomed is the number one player in the world for root canal filling materials. It also produces other dental products, including bio-absorbable sutures and cosmetic medical products.
• Six major reasons why we like Meta Biomed include number one player for root canal filling materials, solid sales growth, strong export growth, improving ROE and operating margins, and valuations.
• We are introducing a new section (Major Factors of Business Operations and Valuations) for all our Korea Small Cap Gem Series from now on (see below).

• The company reported sales of JPY7.3bn, operating profit of JPY1.5bn, and net income of JPY940mn, with no YoY data.
• Transitioned to consolidated financial reporting in Q3 FY08/25, adding a Functional Materials segment, primarily operated by KMAC.
• Announced consolidated earnings forecast for FY08/25: sales JPY11.3bn, operating profit JPY1.9bn, and net income JPY1.3bn.

• In a move that could redefine the future of web browsing and digital advertising, OpenAI is reportedly preparing to launch a new AI-powered browser that directly challenges Google Chrome—Alphabet’s flagship browser and a crucial pipeline for search traffic and user data.
• While the browser is still under wraps, reports indicate that it will feature a ChatGPT-like interface where users complete tasks and search queries within the app, bypassing traditional website clicks altogether.
• This launch follows similar innovations by AI search players like Perplexity, and represents OpenAI’s broader ambition to embed its AI across personal and professional user touchpoints.

• The engineering software sector may be heading toward another major shake-up as Autodesk weighs a potential acquisition of Boston-based PTC Inc., according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions.
• With PTC’s market value hovering around $23 billion, a deal of this magnitude could place Autodesk in a stronger competitive stance against industrial software giants like Siemens and Dassault Systèmes.
• While Autodesk has yet to confirm the move publicly, it is reportedly evaluating a cash-and-stock deal, working with advisers to assess the strategic benefits and financial implications.

• ZimVie has recently shifted its strategic focus and has shown committed actions towards becoming a streamlined organization dedicated to the dental industry.
• With the sales of its spine business yielding $375 million, including $350 million in cash and a $60 million promissary note, ZimVie has embarked on a course of debt reduction and refocusing.
• It’s notable that ZimVie used part of the sales proceeds to pay down $275 million of its existing liabilities.

• Evotec SE has provided a comprehensive overview of their financial and operational status for Q1 2024, reflecting mixed results influenced by the current market environment.
• The report reveals a slight revenue decrease of 2% year-over-year, totaling EUR 208.8 million, attributed to a 23% decline in the Shared R&D business, overshadowed by notable advances in the Just – Evotec Biologics segment, which reported a 400% revenue increase compared to Q1 2023.
• This growth primarily stems from collaborations like those with Sandoz and Department of Defense.

• Kazatomprom’s 2024 half-year results reveal a complex landscape of both opportunities and challenges.
• Positively, the company remains a leading force in the uranium sector, leveraging its extensive resources and production capabilities to capitalize on strong market fundamentals driven by increasing global interest in nuclear energy.
• The emphasis on nuclear power as a viable green energy solution has bolstered demand, potentially leading to a significant supply deficit by 2040, which Kazatomprom appears positioned to address with its strategic focus on expanding production and exploration efforts.

• Chinese battery titan Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) has broken ground on a nearly $6 billion project in Indonesia, marking a bold strategic move to secure crucial materials and expand its manufacturing footprint beyond China.
• The project — a joint venture between CATL subsidiary CBL, Indonesia’s state-owned miner PT Aneka Tambang (Antam), and the state-backed Indonesia Battery Corporation (IBC) — has officially started construction, CATL said Wednesday.
• More than three years in the making, the initiative underscores the ambition of the world’s largest battery manufacturer to reinforce its global standing amid increasingly complex geopolitical dynamics.

• We have found another gem in the Korean small cap industry. Messe ESANG is #39 in our Korea Small Cap Gem Series.
• Messe ESANG (408920 KS) is the number one player in South Korea’s exhibition and convention industry. 
• The company has a combination of strong sales growth, excellent operating margins, improving ROE, sound balance sheet, and cheap valuations. 

• Smartworks, India’s largest managed campus operator, is launching a INR 582.56 crore IPO, combining fresh issue and OFS to fund expansion and reduce debt. 
• Smartworks shows strong growth in operational metrics and high occupancy underline rising demand, but consistent losses, high debt, and client concentration remain key concerns. 
• While the industry outlook is robust, the success depends on Smartworks achieving profitability, managing risk, and sustaining client retention in a competitive market.

• A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week

• Patek Philippe is a premier watchmaker with a rich history and unmatched craftsmanship
• The brand is differentiated from others like Rolex by its exclusivity, handmade quality, and tradition of creating the finest watches in the world
• John Reardon from Collectability provides insights into what makes Patek Philippe a special and highly sought-after brand

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• Banco Santander’s third-quarter financial results for 2023 demonstrate a mixed performance, albeit with solid progress in executing its long-term strategy.
• The company recorded a quarterly profit of EUR 3.3 billion, marking a 12% year-over-year increase, driven by a customer base that has expanded to 171 million.
• For the first nine months of the year, the bank achieved a record profit of EUR 9.3 billion, up 14%.

• Sales increased by JPY985mn (+7.7% YoY) with growth in Creative (Japan), Medical, and CRES segments; operating profit rose by JPY159mn (+12.7% YoY).
• Progress toward FY02/26 forecast: 23.1% for sales, 28.4% for operating profit, 28.1% for recurring profit, 28.6% for net income.
• CRES segment sales rose 205.0% YoY to JPY23mn, but recorded an operating loss of JPY41mn.

• Markel Group’s recent financial performance presents a nuanced picture of its strategic initiatives and operational dynamics.
• On the positive side, the company has demonstrated resilience in its various business segments, showing strong potential for sustainable growth.
• Markel’s comprehensive approach to capital allocation has been characterized by strategic investments and share repurchase activities, which are expected to yield favorable returns over the long term.

• Novonesis has delivered a robust performance in the first quarter of 2025, highlighted by an 11% organic sales growth.
• This includes a 10% growth driven by volume and an additional 1% from pricing.
• The company has shown widespread geographic stability with emerging markets experiencing a substantial 15% growth, while developed markets reported a 9% increase.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico as we look at key trends for 2HFY25 and beyond.
• We believe BWMX has remained weak in 2025 (down 14% YTD) as worries remain over the health of the Mexican consumer and a material 1Q25 miss, which also resulted in a 20% cut in the annual dividend rate.
• While management maintained the 2025 annual guidance, we believe the Street is already projecting the company will have to reduce overall guidance.