Equity Bottom-Up

• Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies & landing in Taiwan. 
• He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
• NVIDIA’s market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.

• Metaplanet, the Tokyo-listed firm modelling itself after MicroStrategy, continues to rapidly expand its Bitcoin holdings.
• For now, equity markets are playing along. Metaplanet’s share price has surged 30% in the past week
• But with the firm trading at nearly 6x its net asset value, market enthusiasm looks stretched

• Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus. 
• The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen’s point: “it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed”. The Good Times Keep Rolling.
• This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.

• AZEK recently shared its second-quarter fiscal 2025 financial results, highlighting both positive performances and notable challenges.
• The quarter saw consolidated net sales grow by 8% year-over-year to $452 million, while the residential segment led growth with a 9% year-over-year increase in net sales.
• This robust performance was driven by mid-single-digit sell-through growth and continued expansion in product lines such as TimberTech and AZEK Exteriors.

• Novo Nordisk A/S reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing strong growth across its operations, though facing certain challenges.
• The company delivered an 18% increase in sales and a 20% growth in operating profit, reflecting robust demand for its diabetes and obesity treatments.
• These positive results underscore the company’s ongoing market leadership, with approximately 46 million patients currently benefiting from its treatment solutions.

• AppLovin, a leader in performance marketing, has recently announced its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting its robust growth trajectory despite external challenges.
• The company has navigated market volatility, such as short-seller scrutiny and broader economic conditions, by focusing on emerging opportunities in the advertising sector.
• This quarter is especially significant due to its strategic decision to divest its games business entirely, further sharpening its focus on advertising technology.

• Deepak Fertilisers & Petro (DFPC IN) reported robust Q4 and full-year FY25 results, crossing INR 10,000 crores in revenue and doubling PAT year-on-year for FY25.
• The strong financial outcomes validate the company’s strategy of aligning with India’s growth story and transitioning from commodities to higher-margin specialty products.
• Improved financial health, reduced net debt, and strategic capex nearing completion position DFPCL for future growth and potentially higher profitability despite near-term segment-specific pressures.

• China represents ~11% of revenues for Cadence and Synopsys. The weight of China has been declining. 
• China has a number of startup working on replacement software, the leader is Empyrean – good but some years behind Cadence and Synopsys and focused on legacy chip design. 
• Between this news today and more restrictions on Nvidia’s sales to China, it looks like more US restrictions will come.

• Uber Technologies’ Q1 2025 earnings call provided insights into the company’s performance, operations, and strategic outlook.
• The results reflected robust growth across key metrics, albeit in a competitive and dynamic environment.
• Here’s a synopsis of the key points from the call, reflecting both strengths and challenges faced by the company.

• Walt Disney’s second-quarter 2025 earnings report was met with a wave of investor enthusiasm, driving the stock up 11% to over $102.
• This optimism was not only driven by stronger-than-expected financials but also by the high-profile announcement of a new theme park in Abu Dhabi.
• The planned park marks Disney’s seventh globally and is set to be developed in collaboration with the Miral Group.

• April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
• Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
• FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.

• The four largest convenience stores all had varying results last year, two setting records for high profits, and the other two seeing worrying shortfalls. 
• The biggest differentiating factor was how each handled the problem of inflation, either through lower prices or by offering added value.
• Unfortunately, Seven Eleven was the worst performer of the big three, still suffering from a price perception problem and lower levels of innovation compared to Lawson and Familymart.

• In a turbulent 2025, Netflix has emerged as one of the most closely watched tech stocks, not just for its market performance but also for its evolving business strategy.
• The streamer’s share price is up over 30% year-to-date, nearing a $500 billion market cap, outpacing the broader S&P 500 by a wide margin.
• Amid global macro uncertainty and shifting consumer behavior, Netflix is experimenting aggressively — hosting live NFL games, expanding into gaming, leveraging artificial intelligence in content production, and responding to a proposed 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.

• Globalwafers (6488 TT) held its shareholders’ meeting yesterday (May 26th).  
• Regarding the U.S. market, Globalwafers (6488 TT) noted that the U.S. government will impose tariffs on imported products, although the specific rates are still unknown.  
• Regarding the overall market conditions, the 12-inch silicon wafer market is currently performing significantly better than the 8-inch market, with higher utilization rates.  

• Looking ahead to the second quarter, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) did not provide specific guidance targets but emphasized that uncertainty in customers’ decisions regarding chip production locations could impact seasonal demand.  
• Despite short-term challenges, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) still anticipates 2025 to be a year of growth.  
• In terms of profitability, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) expects that capacity at Chinese foundries will approach full utilization, leading to supply chain tightness and helping maintain stable gross margins.

• May is a result season, and hence, very few companies that are out of their silent period are eligible to permit insider trading activity
• Sectors with notable activity include real estate, financials, media and renewable energy.
• Most of these stocks are close to same price levels where the insider purchases happened.

• Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) has entered a defining phase in its AI journey, unveiling a host of advanced technologies and product integrations that mark its most aggressive push yet into artificial intelligence.
• At the heart of this transformation is Gemini 2.5 Pro, the company’s most advanced AI model, now powering everything from Search and mobile assistants to developer platforms and multimodal queries.
• The rollout of AI Overviews, which now serves over 1.5 billion monthly users, and the launch of AI Mode, capable of handling more complex search tasks, underscore Alphabet’s commitment to redefining user experience through AI.

• Google’s Pixel Chips to Go All-In on TSMC After Using Samsung Foundry Previously
• TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today. 
• GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead. 

• Zen Technologies (ZEN IN) reported record-high quarterly and annual financial performance in Q4 & FY25, surpassing internal guidance for the year. Strategic acquisitions in naval simulation, drone components& robotics completed.
• The strong financials and acquisitions significantly diversify capabilities and market reach, positioning Zen to capitalise on increasing defence spending and evolving warfare needs.
• Performance exceeds expectations, reinforcing confidence in Zen’s indigenous technology leadership and growth trajectory, despite potential short-term order inflow volatility.

• Pinduoduo sees one of the steepest ownership drops in EM funds, with 95 net sellers and 28 closures in six months.
• Major closures from Aubrey, AllianceBernstein, UBS, and BNP Paribas; largest outflows from Fidelity and BlackRock.
• Despite sharp declines, PDD remains in 36.5% of GEM funds and a top 10 holding in China & HK.

• In 1Q25, total revenue grew by 18% YoY, with main businesses up by 20% YoY.
• The operating margin rose by 3.6 ppt YoY by cutting every cost in 1Q25.
• We expect EPS will grow by 37% in 2025 and the stock has an upside of 48%.

• Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) share price has been quite beaten down in the last few years and has not recovered since COVID.
• A few near-term catalysts that could revive the share price i.e. government subsidies for tourist flights, Chinese tourists are back, and the lifting of the alcohol sales ban in afternoon.
• Cheapest earnings multiple, pays higher dividend yield, high ROE, and also generated USD 420 million free cash flow. 

• UOI received much media attention when a minority shareholder group attempted to push the company to distribute its Haw Par shares and appoint a financial advisor to unlock shareholder value.
• Although the Board dismissed the request due to the failure to meet statutory requirements, the ownership structure between UOI, UOB, Haw Par, and Wee family remains a valid concern.
• UOI has underperformed the broader market over the past 5 years; the key to management is how it can grow from a mid-sized local insurer to a leading regional one.

• TransDigm Group Inc.’s recent earnings discussion sheds light on both its strengths and challenges, providing insights into the company’s ongoing strategies and performance outlook.
• During the second quarter of fiscal 2025, TransDigm reported strong operational performance with significant contributions from its commercial aftermarket and defense market channels.
• Revenue from these divisions displayed healthy growth, while commercial OEM revenues remained largely flat compared to the previous year, indicating an area of potential improvement as production recovers from past disruptions.

• Regarding Datadog’s Q1 2025 financial results, the company reported a solid performance with a revenue of $762 million, representing a 25% year-over-year increase.
• This figure surpassed the high end of their guidance.
• Datadog revealed a customer base of approximately 30,500, with about 3,770 customers having an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $100,000 or more, accounting for 88% of ARR.

• Jubilant Ingrevia has launched its “Pinnacle 3.4.5” strategy targeting 3x revenue and 4x EBITDA growth by FY30, signaling a focused shift toward higher-margin segments.
• The company’s business mix is rapidly evolving, with Specialty Chemicals and Nutrition now contributing 62% of revenue, improving margin visibility and reducing cyclicality.
• With increasing downstream integration, global CDMO expansion, and a robust R&D pipeline, Jubilant Ingrevia is transitioning into a structurally higher-margin, innovation-driven player.

• Linde India plans to double gas capacity to 20,000 TPD by FY27 with ₹32 bn capex, including new ASUs for Tata Steel.
•  FY25 PAT rose 5% despite a 10% revenue dip, driven by margin gains and cost efficiency.
• Trades at over 80× P/E FY27, appears justified by annuity-like cash flows from critical long-term contracts with top steelmakers.

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) delivered a robust start to 2025, reporting stronger-than-expected earnings that reinforced the company’s growth trajectory in high-demand areas like AI and data centers.
• The semiconductor firm posted first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.96, slightly above Wall Street’s estimate of $0.94, with total revenue hitting $7.4 billion, surpassing the projected $7.1 billion.
• This performance was fueled by the impressive 57% year-over-year growth in AMD’s Data Center segment, which reached $3.7 billion.

• The first quarter of 2025 results for Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS) demonstrated both operational progress and strategic initiatives that position the company robustly for future growth.
• The revenue growth for the quarter was 4%, with a significant acceleration in recurring revenues, indicative of a resilient business model that thrives across different economic conditions.
• The quarter was marked by strategic structural changes, notably the announced acquisition of Global Payments’ issuer business and the sale of a minority stake in Worldpay.

• Super Micro Computer shares experienced their steepest decline in months after the company released preliminary third-quarter fiscal 2025 results that came in well below Wall Street expectations.
• SMCI stock fell 14% to $30.96, marking its largest one-day drop since late February.
• The artificial intelligence server maker reported revenue between $4.5 billion and $4.6 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 to $0.31, significantly below analysts’ forecasts of $5.4 billion in revenue and $0.53 EPS.

• Aegis Vopak Terminals is raising Rs2,800 crore via a fresh issue to repay debt and fund expansion, marking its transition into a listed infrastructure platform.
• LPG capacity is set to triple by FY26, with new industrial terminals planned under a Rs4,500 crore capex; revenue and EBITDA are projected to grow 20–25% CAGR through FY27.
• Key risks include high dependence on group entities for revenue, delayed utilization of new capacity, and exposure to regulatory or energy demand shifts affecting LPG and chemical flows.

• Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)‘s 1Q25 adjusted net profit surged 41.1%, suggesting an accelerating momentum. It should continue to outperform Trip.com Group (9961 HK). 
• Good cost management, even as revenue rose 13.2%, has enhanced adjusted EBITDA margin by 5.3pp YoY – this trend will sustain. 
• More visa convenience will boost inbound and outbound travel. At end-1Q25, net cash equals 14% of market capitalisation, and it can still generate ROE of 12-15%. 

• Fabrinet has reported strong results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, which ended on March 28, 2025.
• The company achieved a revenue of $872 million, surpassing its guidance range, and non-GAAP earnings per share stood at $2.52, also above expectations.
• This performance highlights Fabrinet’s robust execution capabilities, especially in the optical communications sector where telecom revenue demonstrated significant growth, counterbalancing a predicted decline in datacom revenue.

• Guangdong Investment (270 HK) exposure in water distribution provides the much-needed stability (low volatility). While its Real Estate exposure could provide some growth.
• With low valuation and healthy dividend yield, owning GDI during the tumultuous period will provide healthy diversification for your portfolio and a hedge during Trump’ tariff period.
• The water sector is undervalued, mainly due to the characteristically low growth, but free cash flow is generally quite strong yet undervalued. GDI generated USD 1.3 bn Free cash flow.

• Ashok Leyland (AL IN) posted 38% YoY PAT growth in Q4, driven by cost efficiency, premium product mix, and strong EBITDA margin improvement.
• HLF IPO and Switch India’s PAT target for FY26 positions for significant value unlocking and improved subsidiary contribution.
• CV demand, export momentum, and alt-fuel investments support a strong FY26 outlook, with valuations supported by improving profitability and resilient balance sheet. 4o

• NALCO has guided for alumina realizations around $400/t in FY26, with earnings further impacted by delays in ramp-up of its 1 MTPA alumina expansion project.
• Q4 FY25 results were strong, but earnings outlook has weakened significantly with the steep drop in alumina prices.
• Valuations appear inexpensive on FY27 earnings at 5x EV/EBITDA, however peristent delays in capacity rampup is concerning. 

• Jade Group (3558 JP) made some wild promises about its potential to grow its online fashion mall business last year when it acquired Magaseek. 
• But recent results suggest what many feared: building scale without due regard for the quality of the assets acquired does not an empire make.
• With Magaseek contracting and e-commerce overall showing muted growth, Jade Group´s capacity to escape the shadow of the big three looks limited.

• Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
• EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
• Having successfully completed a $27.75m equity capital raise, with an additional $3.25m subject to shareholder approval and SPP take-up, the company should be funded through to first gas from the Carpentaria Pilot Project by around end-2025.

• It recently became publicly available that Michael Burry (CEO of Scion Asset Management) started buying put options on numerous Chinese stocks including Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US).
• We highlight four major reasons why Burry may have turned bearish on Chinese tech names (tariffs, delisting threats, increasing hostile political pressure on China, and China’s 30 year bond yield). 
• Although we do not know exactly know how Burry has changed his position in 2Q25, he is likely to have reduced put options on major Chinese tech stocks in April/May.

• The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (U.S. BIS) recently released a series of public consultations regarding Section 232 related to semiconductors.  
• TSMC stated that any import measures should not create uncertainty for existing semiconductor investments.
• Any measures taken by the U.S. government should not undermine the national security policy objectives of the U.S. government, including advanced semiconductor production at TSMC Arizona.

• BioMarin Pharmaceutical reported strong first-quarter financial results for 2025, marked by a 15% increase in total revenue to $745 million compared to the prior year.
• This growth was significantly driven by VOXZOGO, which generated $214 million, a 40% year-over-year increase, demonstrating continued demand for the achondroplasia treatment.
• Additionally, the enzyme therapies business unit grew by 8%, bolstered by a 22% increase in PALYNZIQ revenues.

• Palantir Technologies entered 2025 with first-quarter results that underscore both the power of its artificial intelligence portfolio and the hurdles that still shadow its global ambitions.
• Revenue climbed 39% year over year to roughly $1.02 billion, led by a 55% jump in the United States, where commercial sales surged 71% and government revenue rose 45%.
• Management highlighted that U.S. commercial activities have crossed a $1 billion annualized run rate and that uptake of its new Artificial Intelligence Platform is “racing ahead” across healthcare, financial-services, and industrial clients.

• Leonardo DRS demonstrated a strong performance in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, with financial metrics surpassing initial expectations.
• The company registered organic growth of 16% in revenues, with a significant book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 and a record backlog of $8.6 billion.
• This quarter marks the 13th consecutive quarter with a book-to-bill ratio over 1, underpinning strong demand across a diversified portfolio of products, including advanced infrared sensing, electric power and propulsion, and tactical radars.

• Shake Shack’s recent quarter results indicate a dynamic period for the company, showcasing both substantial progress and areas with potential challenges.
• The company has positioned 2025 as a transformative year, beginning with an ambitious expansion strategy to increase the number of company-operated Shacks to at least 1,500.
• This expansion will demand strong leadership and innovative strategies, with a focus on enhancing the guest experience, operational efficiency, and margin improvements.

• Floor & Decor Holdings reported its fiscal 2025 first quarter results, offering an insightful view into its strategic positioning and operational efficiencies amid a challenging economic landscape characterized by high volatility and uncertainty.
• The company delivered diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, slightly down from $0.46 in the same period last year, but still surpassing the lower end of its expectations despite a decline in comparable store sales.
• Total sales showed a 5.8% increase, reaching $1.161 billion compared to $1.097 billion in the previous year.

• Itron’s first quarter of 2025 financial results demonstrated a robust performance characterized by strong margin expansion and earnings growth that surpassed expectations.
• The company delivered a revenue of $607 million with an adjusted EBITDA of $88 million, indicating a solid operational quarter.
• Non-GAAP earnings per share reached $1.52, representing a substantial year-over-year increase, while free cash flow doubled from the previous year to $67 million.

• Mohawk Industries’ fourth-quarter results showed a mixed performance amid ongoing industry challenges.
• The company reported net sales of approximately $2.6 billion, consistent with the previous year, although this included the benefit from two additional shipping days.
• Positively impacting the results were sales initiatives, restructuring efforts, and productivity improvements.

• Arrow Electronics has presented several key financial outcomes and operational insights in its first quarter of 2025 results.
• The company reported consolidated sales of $6.8 billion, which exceeded the upper range of its guidance.
• Results showed that while global components sales were slightly down by 1% year-over-year at $4.8 billion, the Enterprise Computing Solutions (ECS) segment saw a notable 18% year-over-year increase in sales to $2 billion, indicating strong performance particularly in cloud and hybrid cloud technologies, and infrastructure software.

• Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)’s EBIT fell 30% in 2024 and another 24% in Q12025; management expects significantly lower earnings &free cash flow in 2025 amid rising capex, weak pricing and tariffs
• China & JV Risk: 34% of units sold in China yield limited profit. EV price wars and slowing demand in the region continue to erode margins.
• Valuation Trap: Despite a low P/E (~8x FY25e), high dividend yield (~8%), the cheap valuation may be unsustainable as structural pressures mount from tariffs, EV transition costs, and falling RoS.

• Schloss Bangalore’s Rs3,500 crore IPO includes a Rs2,500 crore fresh issue largely earmarked for debt repayment, with limited allocation toward growth investments.
• The company operates 13 ultra-luxury hotels under The Leela brand, delivering premium ARR and F&B-led revenue, but with relatively modest scale versus larger peers.
• While expansion plans are underway with 678 new keys by FY28, the IPO is priced at a rich ~12x EV/Sales—significantly above Oberoi’s ~8x, despite being half its size.

• Alibaba Cloud is doubling down on globalization with a bold new strategy and 380-billion-yuan ($52.7 billion) investment plan aimed at creating a unified global cloud network and accelerate the international rollout of its AI offerings.
• The initiative seeks to establish Alibaba Cloud as the digital backbone for China’s next generation of global companies.
• Speaking at the Alibaba Cloud “Go Global Summit” on Thursday, Wu Yongming, Alibaba Group CEO and Alibaba Cloud chairman, said China’s globalization is entering a new era — one led not just by product exports but by the global rise of Chinese technology, brands and advanced manufacturing.

• After four years of behind-the-scenes development, Xiaomi has officially joined the top tier of smartphone chipmakers with the launch of its first in-house 3-nanometer system-on-chip (SoC), the Surge Xuanjie O1, along with its first self-developed 4G baseband chip, the Xuanjie T1.
• The announcement came during the company’s product launch event in Beijing on Thursday, where Xiaomi also introduced its new flagship phone 15s Pro and 7Ultra tablet — both powered by the Xuanjie O1— as well as a smartwatch using the T1 chip.
• The Xuanjie O1 is built using TSMC’s second-generation 3nm N3E process the same advanced node used in Apple’s A18 chips and Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Elite.

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (23 May to 6 June 2025).
• Our top 10 picks were up on average 2.4% in the past two weeks (from 9 to 23 May), outperforming KOSPI which was up 0.6% in the same period.
• The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Samsung Securities, LG Uplus, Amorepacific Holdings, Samsung C&T, JYP Entertainment, Nongshim, Krafton, LS Electric, F&F, and Emart. 

• Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. unveiled its first personal computers Monday in Chengdu, with machines powered by the company’s self-developed chips and HarmonyOS operating system in a direct challenge to the long-standing dominance of Windows-Intel (Wintel) and Apple’s macOS technology.
• The MateBook Fold, priced from 23,999 yuan ($3,328), features an 18-inch foldable screen and a split keyboard, while the lighter MateBook Pro, starting at 7,999 yuan, follows a more conventional laptop design with a 14.2-inch display.
• Huawei did not disclose the specific chip used in either model, but industry observers believe the devices are equipped with the company’s Kirin X90 processor built on an Arm architecture.

• Xiaomi has its own smartphone chip! It’s the 4th announcement (2014, 2017, 2021, 2025)? Yes it is. Why it didn’t succeed before, will it work out now? It won’t.
• Mobile chip development costs US$800m-1bn, to be amortized on Xiaomi’s small volumes. The economics don’t work. It won’t give Xiaomi any performance / differentiation benefits.  
• Why now? Computex was ongoing in Taipei with 10 big-size CEOs, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Mediatek, TSMC… maybe they felt lonely in Beijing? If you bought Xiaomi, please sell.

• The Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000815 KS) vs. Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) Price-Ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, highlighting a potential tactical opportunity.
• Statistical and fundamental arguments are provided for and against a relative value trade in this pair that derives from two different industries.
• Trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, risk management strategies, and key events are discussed.

Dentsu Group’s Q125 figures show 0.2% organic net revenue growth and an improvement in operating margin. Japan performed well, with international operations more challenged. Dentsu’s new management plan aims to drive profitability and competitiveness, particularly ex-Japan. It targets up to ¥50bn of operating cost reductions, returning the group to consistent profit growth from FY27. The ¥50bn cost of reshaping the group weighs on FY25 profits but should result in a simpler organisation. A further ¥45bn will be invested over three years with the aim of no markets being loss-making by FY26. The group will focus on the key Japanese and US markets, with the international business centred on adding value to Dentsu’s existing strengths in media. The goal is to achieve a mid-teens return on equity by the plan’s completion.

• IDEX Corporation recently reported its first-quarter results for 2025, outlining both positive performances and areas of challenge.
• The company exceeded expectations across revenue, profitability, and adjusted earnings per share, thanks to incremental cost savings and strategic price adjustments.
• This highlights IDEX’s effective operational management, despite an environment marked by policy-driven uncertainties, such as newly introduced tariffs.

• Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) booked a surprisingly strong set of 1Q2025 results, going against softer consumer sentiment, underlining Alfamart as a supplier of essential goods. 
• The company cut promotional spending in 1Q2025 by half, which improved profitability by 30% QoQ, but it still booked SSSG of 8.8% YoY, outperforming other consumer staples players. 
• Alfamart continued to open new stores in 1Q2025, targetting 1,000 new outlets this year. This should help drive growth in 2025, along with SSSG. Valuations remain attractive versus growth prospects.

• TSMC explained that the growing demand for autonomous driving technologies in smartphones, PCs, IoT devices, and the automotive industry is driving the development of its N4/N3 and N6RF process technologies.
• TSMC announced that the A14 process, which will adopt the new NanoFlex Pro technology, is scheduled to begin production in 2028.
• TSMC plans to launch CoWoS-L with 5.5x reticle size in 2026 and surpass current CoWoS limitations with 9.5x reticle size by 2027.

• The Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• While one of the two companies displays higher revenue growth, the valuation might begin to become stretched. Fundamental key figures are provided to complement the statistical analysis.
• Trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, risk management strategies, and key events are discussed.

• Vulcan Materials is a major player in the construction aggregates market, providing the foundation for buildings, roads, and infrastructure in the United States.
• The company owns and operates quarries across the country, with a market cap close to $30 billion.
• Aggregates are essential for asphalt and concrete production, with Vulcan playing a crucial role in supplying this key material for construction projects.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Xiaomi to launch strategic new products on the 22nd, including the new SoC chip “Surge O1”.
• Xiaomi Surge O1 at a glance: benchmark scores suggest it’s a strong rival to MediaTek and Qualcomm.   
• While Xiaomi has not confirmed the chip’s foundry partner,  we believe it is very likely manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US).  

• Reports of Samsung securing 2nm customers (Nvidia, Qualcomm), but AMD is saying that TSMC has the best and only 2nm, Nvidia saying there’s no alternative to TSMC CoWoS.   
• Competition at 2nm / 18A is already over. Chips tape-out are rolling out. If Intel, Samsung can gain Foundry customers, it is for the next node 14A in 2027-28.
• The difficulty for Intel and Samsung is that TSMC is a lot faster to develop PDK, qualify process, tape-out chips. The total cost of chipdesign at US$0.5-1bn is another hurdle.  

• VEON returned to billion-dollar quarterly revenue in 1Q25; EBITDA grew 13.7% YoY on strong digital execution.
• Digital revenues rose 50% YoY, now 14.3% of group total.
• Kyivstar IPO on track for 3Q25 at US$2.3bn valuation; fintech optionality in Bangladesh and Ukraine emerging.

• CARE Ratings achieved its highest-ever standalone and consolidated income and profitability in FY25, significantly improving margins across the group.
• The results validate the effectiveness of the company’s quality-led growth strategy, operational efficiencies, and strategic investments in non-ratings and international businesses.
• The performance reinforces confidence in Care’s ability to outpace the industry and achieve its diversification targets, supported by strong execution and market positioning.

• F1 is evolving to be more than just a sport, focusing on entertainment and business development
• The fan base is becoming younger and more diverse, with 40% women and 60% men, average age 35
• F1 is balancing historic venues with new races, aiming for 24 races per season and considering new markets in Asia and Africa

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Alibaba (BABA) reported C1Q25 top line in-line with our estimate and consensus. Taobao/Tmall (T/T) outperformed while Cainiao and Int’l commerce underperformed. 
• Stabilization of domestic e-commerce is a major positive. However, on-demand e-commerce at home and video e-commerce abroad are two global growth drivers, 
• We see new challenges emerging following business stabilization. We believe the management is up to the task. We keep BABA in our TOP BUY list and reiterate rating and TP.

• On 20 May, Samsung C&T (028260 KS) made an important announcement that it started research and development on a space project that includes a rocket launch facility construction.
• This is a signal that the Samsung Group may be interested in expanding in the global defense/aerospace industry once again. 
• The recent news flow on Samsung’s expansion into aerospace business including Samsung C&T’s development of rocket launch facility is likely to positively impact Samsung C&T’s share price. 

• Metaplanet’s secret weapon? Moving-strike warrants that raise equity into strength—fueling BTC buys while sidestepping the deep discounts typical of Japan’s small-cap raises.
• Forget buybacks. Metaplanet is redefining shareholder value by issuing stock, not retiring it—turning dilution into accretion via Bitcoin per-share growth.
• A 4.6x mNAV premium gives Metaplanet unmatched BTC buying power—creating a capital flywheel that most traditional treasuries can only envy.

• China announced game approval for the May batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China’s game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• Of the companies that we are monitoring, none of them got approval for domestic games but a handful approvals of imported games save their day.

• The Canara Bank (CBK IN) vs. Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• The relative value opportunity has a target return of approximately 6% and can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
• Trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, risk management strategies, and key events are discussed.

• Indusind Bank (IIB IN) faces significant accounting discrepancies, leadership resignations, and suspicions of fraud, with the bank announcing a net loss of Rs 2,329Crs in Q4 FY25 due to this.
• The escalating situation, involving fraud suspicions and leadership resignations, raises concerns about the bank’s internal controls, financial reporting, and governance.
• IndusInd Bank’s path forward hinges on transparent investigations, fixing internal control systems, and restoring leadership accountability. Investors should closely monitor the regulatory response and management’s corrective actions.

• SEA reported C1Q25 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (3.7%), 10% and 8.4% vs. our estimates and 1.4%, (16%) and 31% vs. consensus. 
• SEA has weathered the return of TikTok Shop better than rivals three quarters in a roll, but we see its e-commerce business vulnerable to future attacks. 
• We raised TP from US$75 to US$134 but DG to a SELL on rich valuation

• Tencent reported C1Q25 rev., IFRS op. profit, and IFRS net inc, in-line, (3.1%), (5.6%) vs. our est. and 3.8%, (2.3%), (4.9%) vs. cons. 
• As predicted, Tencent maintained a transitional game quarter well, going forward new game launches shall fill the pipeline while recovering consumption helping on advertising and fintech. 
• We raised our TP to HK$584 for better outlook and place Tencent back to the TOP BUY list. Our TP implies 21x PE.

• Iron ore mining capacity expansion from 2.35 MTPA to 6 MTPA and pellet capacity from 2.7 MTPA to 4.7 MTPA expected by 3QFY26 with full ramp-up by Q4 FY26.
• 4QFY25 consolidated revenues of ₹1,468 crore, with EBITDA at ₹318 crore and PAT at ₹221 crore, reflecting a slight decline year-on-year due to lower realizations.
• Valuations appear reasonable driven by steady earnings growth backed by capacity addition, mine expansion and operational efficiencies.

• Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN)‘s FY25 marked a pivotal shift with record profitability, fueled by premiumization, cost efficiency, and expansion into international markets, notably through its luxury portfolio.
• Record profitability and a strengthened balance sheet position ABDL for aggressive expansion in the high-margin super-premium and luxury segments, supported by strategic CapEx.
• ABD’s transformation into a premium-focused brand with significant global expansion potential, particularly in luxury segments, positions it for sustained growth and higher margins.

• Strong results reflect progress of existing approved drugs including key oncology drugs.
• Mazdutide is set to be released in 2025, and the company is currently making plans for the release.
• Innovent Biologics continues to add to its drug development portfolio.

• Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in China in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24.
• Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew by 23%.
• We believe operating margin will be stable, as the growth of sales and market expense has been slowing down.

• PROTEAN eGov Technologies LTD (PROTEAN) has experienced a significant setback by not being shortlisted for the Indian government’s PAN 2.0 project worth INR 1,440 crore, a material negative.
• This exclusion, despite earlier confidence, is expected to lead to a substantial decline in this revenue stream over the next 2-3 years, potentially collapsing by 75-100%.
• The PAN business has historically been a key driver of profitability and free cash flow, funding new initiatives now under threat. 

• Following its AGM on May 13 last, AMD announced a new $6 billion share repurchase program, despite still having $4 billion remaining on the previous buyback program
• The AGM also approved a proposal to authorize a 78% increase in the company’s share count, from 2.25 billion to 4 billion shares
• It’s a bold move on AMD’s part and it reawakens memories of the company’s acquisition of Xilinx back in 2022 in a $35 billion all stock deal. Deja vu ?

• We expect Baidu to report C1Q25 top line,non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income inline, (4.2%) and (8.2%) vs. the consensus, and C2Q25 top line guidance (2.7%) vs. the consensus
• Although we expect rebounding consumption to help BIDU’s advertising business, its traffic share losses were alarming. Further, we expect some of BIDU’s core advertising categories to experience sluggish recovery;
• We maintain our view that Baidu lacks visible growth drivers, reiterate our SELL rating, and cut its TP to US$88.

• JD.com C1Q25 revenue exceeded our estimate/consensus by 2.4%/4.3% and adjusted NI by 19%/20%, thanks to better-than-expected cross selling from trade-in subsidies and gross margin;
• We, however, raise full year new businesses operating loss from RMB(6bn) to RMB(12bn). We estimate 80% of the loss will come from food delivery;
• In lieu of the continued uncertainty in take-out investments, we remove JD.com from TOP BUY while cut TP from US$58 to US$54.

• In Q125, ZTO’s rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth
• Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y
• Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further

• Welspun Living targets INR 15,000 crore revenue by FY27, focusing on debt reduction and expanding its non-core businesses, diversifying its growth and financial resilience.
• The company’s emphasis on sustainability and innovation, including renewable energy initiatives, positions it as a leader in eco-friendly home textiles, responding to market shifts.
• Despite fierce competition, Welspun Living’s strong brand portfolio and global presence reaffirm its leadership in the home textiles market, making it well-positioned for long-term growth.

• Archean Chemical Industries (ACI IN) posted strong operational performance, driven by robust export growth and stable demand across key segments.
• Despite external market challenges, Archean’s diversified product portfolio and strategic acquisitions provide a solid foundation for future growth.
• Archean is well-positioned to continue expanding, with significant upside in bromine derivatives and energy storage, supporting its long-term growth trajectory.

Borussia Dortmund’s strong Q325 results reflect a relatively busy football schedule with just under one-half of the cumulative home games of the season played in the period. It is safe to say the most important result came after the Q325 results were published, as the first team qualified to play in the Champions League in 2025/2026. An impressive surge with seven wins in the last eight games took the club to the treasured fourth position, having been in 11th position prior to those games and fifth ahead of the final game. The last time the team was in the top four of the Bundesliga this season was after the third game. The replacement of the first team coach at the end of January 2025 certainly has paid off. We make no change to our estimates.

• Apcotex Industries (APCO IN) reported a robust 12.5% YoY revenue growth in Q4 FY25, driven by strong volume and export growth.
• Despite external challenges like crude price volatility and global overcapacity in latex, the company showcased strong operational performance.
• The recovery in margins, driven by improved capacity utilization and higher exports, supports optimism for FY26 despite market uncertainties.

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang visited Taiwan to attend the COMPUTEX Taipei International Computer Exhibition.  
• Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues expanding its workforce, recently opening over a thousand job vacancies globally.  
• Throughout his speech, Huang repeatedly mentioned Taiwan. He opened with “Hello Taiwan,” noting that both of his parents were present in the audience, highlighting his personal connection to Taiwan.  

• Nvidia will provide IP blocks to other semiconductor designers (hyperscalers Amazon, Google, their design partners Alchip, Mediatek) so that they can integrate their own CPU or ASIC into Nvidia’s systems.    
• A small size RTX-Pro-Server for Enterprise to run their own AI models, AI agents. That’s “on-premise” AI. AI Data Platform, a tool to structure and train AI data and models.  
• Mediatek is promoted to the title of “great partner”. Lots of mentions of Hon Hai / Foxconn, TSMC. No mention of Broadcom.

• TSMC: +19.2% Premium; Rebounded from Previous Lows, Consider Shorting ADR Spread at 20% or Higher
• ASE: +6.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread
• ChipMOS: +3.4% Premium; Good Level to Short the ADR Spread

• COMPUTEX 2025 Kicks Off — Nvidia CEO unveils Taiwan AI Supercomputer investment plan with Hon Hai, TSMC as key partners.
• Nvidia Opens Up Ecosystem with new “NVLink Fusion” — A strategic move to cement long-term platform dominance.
• PC Monitor — Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs’ Next Edge AI Shift 

• There’s been an avalanche of biased or disingenuous comments along the lines of “Samsung, TSMC won’t use High N.A. EUV” or “too expensive, too difficult”. 
• Samsung will use High NA in 4F² DRAM by 2028; TSMC in some but not all A14 processes by 2028. 
• We should really think about High NA as optionality value for ASML (share price), rather than a catalyst.

• Unveiled a Rs1.3 lakh crore capex program is planned over FY26–FY30 to reach 30 GW total capacity and 40 GWh energy storage by FY30.
• Reported a 16% year-on-year increase in Q4 FY25 net profit to ₹408 crore, with revenue rising 16% to ₹3,189 crore.
•   Trades at ~46x P/E—above Adani Power (~17x) and Tata Power (~33x).

• Aarti Industries (ARTO IN) posted a solid 9% QoQ revenue growth, driven by higher volumes in the energy sector.
• The company is navigating external volatility, including US tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, while maintaining growth through volume recovery and diversification.
• The solid volume uptick in key sectors positions Aarti for continued growth in FY26, despite margin pressures.

Georgia Capital (GCAP) delivered a solid NAV total return of 11.2% in Q125 in local currency terms (9.8% in GBP), continuing its strong 15.1% growth per annum since end-2018. Q125 NAV growth was driven primarily by Lion Finance Group’s stock performance (BGEO, formerly Bank of Georgia), which contributed 6.9pp to NAV performance. The strength of GCAP’s private portfolio continues to be reflected in robust earnings growth and sustained dividend flows. The group has reiterated its guidance to receive GEL180m in recurring dividends in 2025 (flat vs 2023 and 2024, which was sufficient to cover 169% of GCAP’s share buybacks over the last two years). Given the persistent wide discount to NAV (currently 37% to end-March NAV), GCAP remains focused on accretive share repurchases, reinforcing its commitment to disciplined capital allocation.

• In this edition: • AkzoNobel | believed to be close to a final deal with JSW Paints on Akzo Nobel India • KPN | VodafoneZiggo investigating possible sale of transmission towers • InPost | poor delivery quality in to-door segment damaging to e-commerce growth • Just Eat TakeAway.com (“JET”) | Prosus launches recommended cash offer • Corporate agenda | week 21 – 24

• On May 14, 2025, Edesa Biotech, Inc. (EDSA) announced financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 that ended March 31, 2025 and provided a business update.
• The company has initiated outreach to potential investigators along with manufacturing-related activities to support U.S. regulatory approval for a Phase 2 study of EB06 in the treatment of vitiligo.
• Manufacturing of EB06 is likely to be finished in the second half of 2025 such that the company can submit the manufacturing data to the FDA as part of the Investigational New Drug (IND) application.