China

In today’s briefing:

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics
Volatility Cones: Opportunities Across 8 Hong Kong Stocks
HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion
China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.24)-JD Health 25H1 Results, Hansoh Placement, Ascletis Pharma Placement
BeOne Medicines: Initiation of Coverage- 20 expected R&D milestones In The Next 18 Months Signalling A Massive Upside? – Major Drivers
Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates, Earnings, Cash Flow All Collapsing (August 2025)
Saint Bella: H1’25 Earnings Review – Clear Visibility on Strong Growth and Improving Profitability

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price.
The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics

There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 10.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$818m). There are a bunch of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
There is a huge FAF increase for Horizon Robotics and that will bring passive buying from the HSTECH trackers too. The stock is being added to a global index on Tuesday.

Volatility Cones: Opportunities Across 8 Hong Kong Stocks

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Volatility cones chart implied volatility against historical percentiles across the term structure, providing a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
Highlight: Several high-profile HK stocks currently show historically cheap implied volatility. With some of them trading near 52-week highs, now may be an opportune time to hedge.
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion

As forecast, Pop Mart (9992 HK) will replace J&T Global Express (1519 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$4.8bn (US$612m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 2 September.
Pop Mart is also being added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and that marks the end of inclusion in major indices for the stock.

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.24)-JD Health 25H1 Results, Hansoh Placement, Ascletis Pharma Placement

The 25H1 results of JD Health beat expectations. Due to the strong financial position/positive growth outlook, reasonable valuation of JD Health is P/S of 3 to 4x.
Ascletis announced Share Placing.If ASC30’s Phase IIa data remain excellent, potential BD/licensing deal would drive valuation to HK$25bn. However, if clinical data is disappointing, valuation may fall below HK$12 billion.
Reasonable valuation of Hansoh is about RMB108-111 billion. So, the Placing Price of HK$36.30 per Placing Share is expensive. We think the valuation of Hansoh should be lower than BeiGene.

BeOne Medicines: Initiation of Coverage- 20 expected R&D milestones In The Next 18 Months Signalling A Massive Upside? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

BeOne Medicines recently announced its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025.
The company reported significant financial and strategic progress, reinforcing its position in the market.
Breaking down the results, BeOne’s revenue reached $1.3 billion, reflecting a robust 42% year-over-year growth.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates, Earnings, Cash Flow All Collapsing (August 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

Our proprietary index shows price momentum has continued to weaken in Q3
Some carriers have tightened FY25 earnings ranges, but mood mostly downbeat
We remain -ive on the sector; stay SHORT ZIM against LONG CM PORTS pair

Saint Bella: H1’25 Earnings Review – Clear Visibility on Strong Growth and Improving Profitability

By Andrei Zakharov

Saint Bella, a leading family care group in Asia, announced first interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2025 as a public company.
Premium postpartum care service provider successfully completed an initial public offering in Hong Kong at HK$6.58 per share, raising ~HK$709m of net proceeds.
I was impressed with 40%+ YoY revenue growth in the home care services business segment, gross profit margin expansion across the board and net profit of ~RMB327m.

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Aug 23

Daily Brief China: Giant Biogene, XPeng , Wynn Macau Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes
[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$28) Review]: When Margin and Cash Is Right, Growth Is Secondary
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes

There is 1 add and 21 deletions for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.77bn (US$226m).
The deletes have underperformed the HSHKBIO Index since the start of the year with the gap opening up over the last two months following the announcement of the methodology change.

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$28) Review]: When Margin and Cash Is Right, Growth Is Secondary

By Eric Wen

XPeng reported C2Q25 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss (5.4%), 28% wider and 10% narrower than our estimate and (2.2%), 13% narrower and 49% narrower than consensus.
Vehicle gross margin beat our estimate by 2.3ppt, consensus by 1.7ppt, and improved 14ppt YoY and 1.8% QoQ. XPEV guided for breakeven in C4Q25;
We reiterate our TOP BUY on XPEV with TP unchanged.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Wynn Macau, AAC Technologies
UST yields climbed yesterday, led by the front end, following hawkish comments from a few Fed officials and strong PMI data. The UST curve bear-flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 5 bps to 3.79%, while the yield on the 10Y UST increased 4 bps to 4.33%. Equities continued to retreat amid a rotation out of big tech stocks.
The S&P 500 slipped for a fifth straight day, declining 0.4% to 6,370, while the Nasdaq fell 0.3% to 21,100.

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Aug 22

Daily Brief China: First Pacific Co, Wuxi Biologics, Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited, Kuaishou Technology, EpimAb Biotherapeutics, Iron Ore, Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Seazen Holdings and more

In today’s briefing:

First Pacific (142 HK) Is Fully Valued Here
Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK): Expanded Offering and Capacity Drive 1H25 Result; Accelerated Growth Ahead
Jiaxin International Resources Investment IPO – No Track Record, Government Supported
KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 2Q25, Op Profit Up by 35% YoY, 91% Upside
EpimAb (岸迈生物) Pre-IPO: Differentiated Bispecific Products
[IO Technicals 2025/34] Iron Ore Braces for Bullish Shift After Six-Day Slide
Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological Tech. Pre-IPO: A Play on Aging Population But With A Few Wrinkles
Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK): Robust 1H25; Innovative Drugs Key; Out-Licensing Affirm Pipeline Strength
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

First Pacific (142 HK) Is Fully Valued Here

In StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched, I saw First Pacific Co (142 HK)‘s discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade.
That analysis applied a fixed value for MPIC (delisted in 4Q23). However, if applying a look-through into 23.7%-held Manila Electric Company (MER PM), that NAV discount widens. Currently ~40%.
By that yardstick this is the narrowest NAV discount since early 2018. This appears too tight. The benefits from the proposed spin-off of Maynilad appear baked in.

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK): Expanded Offering and Capacity Drive 1H25 Result; Accelerated Growth Ahead

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) logged solid performance in 1H25, with revenue growing 16% YoY to RMB10B and net profit increasing 55% YoY to RMB3B. Revenue from continuing operations grew 20%.
Total backlog reached $20B as of June 30, 2025, including $11B service backlog, while the total backlog within three years stood at $4B, enhancing near-term revenue visibility.
The company raised 2025 revenue growth target to 14–16% YoY from 12–15% YoY earlier. This indicates 2H25 revenue to be RMB11,524M, up 14% YoY and 16% HoH.

Jiaxin International Resources Investment IPO – No Track Record, Government Supported

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited (JIRI) is looking to raise around US$153m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Jiaxin International owns exclusive rights to a globally significant tungsten asset, supported by Jiangxi Copper. Commercial production began in April 2025, with full ramp-up expected by 2027.
We have looked at the company’s background in our earlier note, in this note we talk about the deal pricing.

KS / Kuaishou (1024 HK): 2Q25, Op Profit Up by 35% YoY, 91% Upside

By Ming Lu

The growth rate of GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) rose to 18% YoY in 2Q25 from 15% YoY in 1Q25.
The operating margin improved to 13% in 2Q25 from 11% in 2Q24 so that operating profit increased by 35% YoY in 2Q25.
We conclude an stock upside of 91% for the next twelve months. Buy.

EpimAb (岸迈生物) Pre-IPO: Differentiated Bispecific Products

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EpimAb, a China-based clinical stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CMBI are the joint sponsors.
In this note, we look at the company’s product pipeline, its pre-IPO investors, and management.
Our initial view is that the company does provide a line-up of differentiated products though still in early stage of clinical development.

[IO Technicals 2025/34] Iron Ore Braces for Bullish Shift After Six-Day Slide

By Umang Agrawal

Iron ore drops on Tangshan curbs, but stable hot metal output underpins near-term price support.
Managed money participants remain net long in iron ore, but softer buying momentum signalled profit-taking.
Mean reversion and bullish MA crossover signal upside potential for the 62%/65% spread.

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological Tech. Pre-IPO: A Play on Aging Population But With A Few Wrinkles

By Hong Jie Seow

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech (SFCBT HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
SFC is the leader among China’s premium domestic skincare brands. In 2024, SFC was ranked first among all premium domestic skincare brands in China by retail sales.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK): Robust 1H25; Innovative Drugs Key; Out-Licensing Affirm Pipeline Strength

In 1H25, Jiangsu Hengrui reported 16% YoY increase in revenue to RMB 15.8B primarily attributable to the growth of innovative drugs sales along with increase in licensing revenue.
R&D expenses surged 6% to RMB 3.2B due to ongoing clinical trials. Net profit increased 30% YoY to RMB 4.5B resulting in net margin expanding 310bps to 28.3% in 1H25.
In 1H25, the company obtained marketing approvals for six Class 1 innovative drugs, including trastuzumab rezetecan injection (as second line of treatment for NSCLC with HER2 mutations).

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group, Japfa Comfeed
UST yields declined 1-2 bps yesterday, amid limited macro catalysts and following good demand for an auction of 20Y notes. The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 3.75%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 2 bps to 4.29%.
Equities retreated for a second day, driven by broad decreases in tech heavyweights amid concerns over AI profitability. The S&P 500 slid 0.2% to 6,396, while the Nasdaq was down 0.7% at 21,173.

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Aug 21

Daily Brief China: Pop Mart, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group , Smart Share Global, Ascletis Pharma Inc, Wanguo International Mining, Yum China Holdings , Megatronix Inc., JNBY Design Ltd, Country Garden Holdings Co, Wuxi Biologics and more

In today’s briefing:

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows
Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Placing Shares to Fund R&D Amid Stellar 1H Performance
Hillhouse’s Competing Bid Challenges Smart Share Global’s Management-Led Privatization
Ascletis Pharma (1672 HK): Placement Bleak; Commercialization To Take Time; Lack Formidable Pipeline
Wanguo Gold Group Placement – Industry Momentum Strong, Stock Run-Up Quite a Bit, but Deal Is Small
Yum China: Focus On Innovation & Customer Engagement to Foster Solid Growth Channels Via Advanced Digital Capabilities!
Megatronix Inc. Pre-IPO: Favorable Growth Drivers, But Losses and Concentration Risks Persist
HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener Aug 2025: Lever Style (1346 HK) Conference Call
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) 25H1 – Concerns Behind the Performance Rebound

Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows

Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, HSIII Index, HSHKBIO Index and HSCI Index post market close tomorrow.
The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$54.3bn (US$6.9bn) with big impact in a lot of names.
The largest inflows will be in Geely Auto if added to the HSTECH, Pop Mart if added to the HSCEI and HSI, and Horizon Robotics due to a FAF increase.

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Placing Shares to Fund R&D Amid Stellar 1H Performance

By Special Situation Investments

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) is placing 108M shares at the price of HK$36.30 per share. 65% of the proceeds will be used for the R&D of new innovative drugs.
Hansoh’s late-stage pipeline seems to be interesting, as its key focus areas being oncology and metabolic diseases, which are among the fast-growing therapeutic areas, with huge addressable patient population.
Hansoh has announced better-than-expected 1H25 result, with both revenue and net profit beating consensus. Innovative drugs revenue increased 22% YoY to RMB6B, contributing 82.7% of total revenue.

Hillhouse’s Competing Bid Challenges Smart Share Global’s Management-Led Privatization

Smart Share Global’s management consortium signed a definitive agreement to acquire the company at $1.25/ADS, later challenged by Hillhouse’s $1.77/ADS bid.
Hillhouse’s competing bid is 40% higher than management’s offer, with significant shareholder stakes potentially influencing the outcome.
EM’s business is unprofitable, with declining power bank rentals, but holds a net cash pile of $1.6/ADS.

Ascletis Pharma (1672 HK): Placement Bleak; Commercialization To Take Time; Lack Formidable Pipeline

Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK) announced the placement of 52.4M shares for subscription at HK$16.45 per share.
The company intends to use 90% of proceeds for further R&D of its drug candidates with respect to both subcutaneously injected peptides and oral peptides, into clinical trials for obesity.
The company will take time to cash in fully from the commercialization efforts in near future, given the limited opportunity it has in terms of the drug pipeline basket.

Wanguo Gold Group Placement – Industry Momentum Strong, Stock Run-Up Quite a Bit, but Deal Is Small

By Akshat Shah

Wanguo International Mining (3939 HK) is looking to raise upto US$96m via a 2.1% stake sale, while Prominent Investment Holding is looking to pare down another 0.7%, to raise US$32m.
The company intends to use the proceeds towards funding the expansion of its Gold Ridge Mine in the Solomon Islands, along with other business development purposes.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Yum China: Focus On Innovation & Customer Engagement to Foster Solid Growth Channels Via Advanced Digital Capabilities!

By Baptista Research

Yum China Holdings, Inc. reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, marked by new record levels in revenue, operating profit, and operating margin.
The company’s dual-focused strategy emphasizing both same-store sales and system sales growth has yielded significant results.
Notably, overall same-store sales grew by 1%, driven by a 17% increase in same-store transactions at Pizza Hut and 5% system sales growth at KFC.

Megatronix Inc. Pre-IPO: Favorable Growth Drivers, But Losses and Concentration Risks Persist

By Hong Jie Seow

Megatronix Inc. (1888582D CH) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MI is an innovation-driven automotive technology company. MI focuses on developing and delivering AI-powered integrated domain control solutions that enable automakers to build the next generation of software-defined vehicles.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener Aug 2025: Lever Style (1346 HK) Conference Call

By Sameer Taneja

Tariff confusion has hit stocks, but the names in focus continue to be resilient as they pass on the costs, and the future impact of demand is to be determined.
The investing world is now searching for stocks that are not directly affected by Trump tariffs. Lever Style (1346 HK) is one such stock trading at 7.2x trailing PE.
With a trailing dividend yield of 6.2%, net cash of 27% of market cap, and impressive metrics on growth, this is a stock worth exploring.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Country Garden, Softbank Group, Xiaomi Corp, Sunny Optical
UST yields declined 2-3 bps across the curve yesterday, with limited catalysts on the macro front and amid a sell-off in equities. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 2 bps to 3.75%, while the yield on the 10Y UST declined 3 bps to 4.31%. Equities retreated, driven by a sell-off in tech stocks. The S&P 500 declined 0.6% to 6,411, while the Nasdaq slumped 1.5% to 21,315.
In the US, July housing starts rose 5.2% m-o-m (-1.8% e / 5.9% p) to an annualised 1.43 mn units. That said, the July (preliminary) building permits fell 2.8% m-o-m (-0.5% e / -0.1% p) to an annualised 1.35 mn units.

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) 25H1 – Concerns Behind the Performance Rebound

WuXi Bio’s 25H1 growth was driven by XDC against the backdrop of BD wave of innovative drug assets. Coupled with biotech booming market, we witnessed obvious recovery in CXO’s performance.
Intensive share reduction by major shareholders has weakened market confidence in long-term value. Given Li Ge’s rich experience in capital operation, WuXi Bio’s valuation potential may have been fully realized.
Current investment logic has shifted to the growth of overseas BD/licensing cooperation based on China’s low-priced but high-quality innovative drugs due to engineer dividend, which may have certain growth ceilings.

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Aug 20

Daily Brief China: Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group , Hang Seng Index, Pop Mart, Aux Electric Co Ltd, SICC, Smart Share Global, CRB Commodity Index, Shuangdeng Group Co Ltd, Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust and more

In today’s briefing:

Hansoh Pharma Placement – Somewhat Expected but Still Opportunistic
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Outlook Ahead of Sep25 Rebalance
Pop Mart (9992 HK): Revenue Up by 204%, Margin Up by 17 PPT, 64% Upside
Aux Electric Pre-IPO: Competitive Niche
SICC A/H Trading – Strong Retail, Lukewarm Insti Demand
Smart Share Global: An Interesting Merger Arb Play
Commodities & Metals – August 2025
Shuangdeng Group IPO: Weak Earnings This Year but Potentially Hot Data Centre Trade
Aux Electric IPO: The Investment Case
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Hansoh Pharma Placement – Somewhat Expected but Still Opportunistic

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement.
The stock has done exceptionally well this year but is now trading at near its all-time highs and it doesn’t really need the cash.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Outlook Ahead of Sep25 Rebalance

By Nico Rosti

Brian Freitas has highlighted in his August 18th’s insight the details of what to expect in the upcoming, September 5, index rebalance for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) .
The HSI started a modest pullback this week, outlook for the index remains bullish, this insight will try to determine both buy-the-dip and profit targets areas for the coming weeks.
We have attached at the end of the insight an Excel file with all our price and time model’s data for the HSI INDEX. Check it out.

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Revenue Up by 204%, Margin Up by 17 PPT, 64% Upside

By Ming Lu

In 1H25, Pop Mart’s revenue surged by 204% YoY with all major business lines growing significantly.
We believe the operating margin will improve strongly in 2025 and rise slightly in 2026.
The P/E band suggests an upside of 64% for the end of 1H265. Buy.

Aux Electric Pre-IPO: Competitive Niche

By Nicholas Tan

Aux Electric Co Ltd (0917839D HK) is looking to raise up to US$600m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is one of the global top five air conditioner providers, with capabilities covering the design, R&D, production, sales and related services of household and central air conditioners.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

SICC A/H Trading – Strong Retail, Lukewarm Insti Demand

SICC (688234 CH), a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, raised around US$260m in its H-share listing.
In terms of market share, as per Frost & Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Smart Share Global: An Interesting Merger Arb Play

By Nicholas Tan

Smart Share Global (EM US) , previously known as “Energy Monster”, is a rather interesting merger arbitrage situation.
It provides a unique risk/reward balance analogous to the famous adage, “heads I win, tails I don’t lose too much”.
In this note, we examine the company and the merger dynamics.

Commodities & Metals – August 2025

By Rahul Jain

Key Trends: Precious metals, cobalt, and rare earths sustain leadership, while uranium equities face a short-term correction despite strong structural drivers.
Key Idea: Markets reward miners with policy support, scale, and cost efficiency, while penalizing those exposed to cyclical weakness or geopolitical uncertainty.
Key News: China tightened rare earth quotas, India moved forward on steel safeguard duties, and uranium equities corrected even as nuclear fundamentals remain robust

Shuangdeng Group IPO: Weak Earnings This Year but Potentially Hot Data Centre Trade

By Nicholas Tan

Shuangdeng Group Co Ltd (JISHUZ CH) is looking to raise around US$109m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It’s a global leader in energy storage business for big-data and telecommunication industries with a diverse customer base comprising telecom base station operations, data centers, power stations and power grids.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Aux Electric IPO: The Investment Case

Aux Electric Co Ltd (0917839D HK) is the fifth-largest air conditioner provider globally as measured by volume. It is seeking to raise US$600 million.
Aux is known for its aggressive low pricing, which has helped it establish itself as an affordable option to larger peers.
The investment case is bullish due to strong growth, increasing contract liabilities, encouraging margin profile despite the low-price strategy/higher ODM mix and cash generation.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT
UST yields rose 1-2 bps yesterday, with limited major catalysts ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance later this week. The yield on the 2Y UST inched up 1 bp to 3.77%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.33%.
Equities were flat, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stable at 6,449 and 21,630, respectively.

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Aug 19

Daily Brief China: Smart Share Global, Pop Mart, Consun Pharmaceutical, Tencent, Peric Special Gases, SUNeVision Holdings, Geely Auto and more

In today’s briefing:

Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25
Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Biotech Sep25: Announcement Soon; MANY DELs Likely!
Tencent (700 HK): Positioning After 41% YTD Rally with Collar Strategies
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Dec25: Few Changes to Expectations
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Index Change Possible; ~US$180mn One-Way; Announcement Soon
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep25: Announcement This Week; 3 Changes Likely
Tencent (700 HK): Rally Before Results, Options Market Repricing After
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: GEELY up 15% Vs Peers; ~US$2.2bn One-Way; Announcement Soon
Pop Mart (9992 HK) – Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast

Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Crashes The Party. And Rightfully So

Nearly seven months after receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer had been entered into.
The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO, made an Offer of US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
Now Hillhouse has thrown its hat into the ring with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. Smart Share’s special committee of independent directors should engage.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25

Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 September.
We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
CATL completes 3 months of listing just prior to the review meeting date and is a dark horse candidate, though the committee could let the stock season for another quarter.

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Biotech Sep25: Announcement Soon; MANY DELs Likely!

The Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO) represents the largest biotech companies listed in Hong Kong (HKEX) from September 2025.
We expect 20 index constituents to face deletion in September 2025 rebal due to a recent change in index selection methodology.
The index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.

Tencent (700 HK): Positioning After 41% YTD Rally with Collar Strategies

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context:Tencent (700 HK) has performed strongly this year, gaining 41% YTD, including 5.5% last week around its earnings release.
Volatility Skew: A rare setup shows calls trading rich versus puts, creating favorable conditions for protective collar strategies.
Actionable Trade Ideas: Three variations of a protective collar — with charts, pricing, and Greeks — illustrate how to position in the current market.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Dec25: Few Changes to Expectations

CSI All Share Semiconductors Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
We expect up to five ADDs and one DEL for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Index Change Possible; ~US$180mn One-Way; Announcement Soon

The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the September 2025 index rebal event will be publicly announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.
We continue to expect Pop Mart (9992 HK) to be an ADD and J&T Global Express (1519 HK) to be a DEL in HSCEI in September 2025.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep25: Announcement This Week; 3 Changes Likely

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
We see three ADDs and three DELs and one float percentage revision which could collectively trigger roughly US$428mn in one-way index flows in September 2025.
The index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.

Tencent (700 HK): Rally Before Results, Options Market Repricing After

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context:Tencent (700 HK) reported 2Q25 results last week, beating expectations and fueling a 5.5% move in the stock.
Market Reaction: Shares rallied while front-end options saw a pronounced volatility crush, rotating the term structure back into contango.
Why Read: This note unpacks Tencent’s price action and the evolving volatility setup.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: GEELY up 15% Vs Peers; ~US$2.2bn One-Way; Announcement Soon

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the September 2025 index rebal event will be announced after the close on Friday 22nd August 2025.
We continue to expect one low-conviction index change for September 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of ~US$2.2bn one-way.

Pop Mart (9992 HK) – Core Reasons for High Growth and Performance Forecast

In bleak consumption environment, Pop Mart is definitely an “outsider”.Explanations such as “lipstick effect” are more like a self-consistent logic, which may have some sense, but doesn’t constitute core contradiction.
To truly understand the investment value of Pop Mart, it’s necessary to assess future growth potential.We think overseas revenue could reach RMB16-17 billion in 2025 and RMB42 billion in 2026.
Net profit CAGR in 2024-2026 could be about 79.5%. Pop Mart would still maintain high growth in short-term. But after 2026, there are uncertainties of channel policies and IP-driven factors.

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Aug 18

Daily Brief China: Shenzhen YHLO Biotech, Smart Share Global, Alibaba, Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd., SITC International and more

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec25: US$300mn+ One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations
Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Emerges with a Competing Offer
ECM Weekly (18 August 2025)- Eve Energy, CNGR, Will Semi, 52 Toys, JSW, Bluestone, Tuas, Hexaware
Kangji Medical (9997 HK) Privatization – The Cancellation Price Is Not Attractive
Weekly Deals Digest (17 Aug) – Kangji Medical, HKBN, Shengjing, Carenet, Shibaura, Rezil, Yomeishu
SITC International (1308 HK): A Charming 1H25

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec25: US$300mn+ One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations

CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
We expect up to five ADDs and four DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

Smart Share Global (EM US): Hillhouse Emerges with a Competing Offer

Smart Share Global (EM US) has disclosed a competing non-binding offer from Hillhouse at US$1.77 per ADS, a 41.6% premium to the Trustar offer.
The Hillhouse proposal meets the criteria for a superior proposal. The support agreement enables management rollover shareholders to switch allegiance from Trustar to Hillhouse.
Unlike the Trustar offer, the Hillhouse offer is above the last reported net cash (US$1.62 per ADS). The high premium suggests a low probability that Trustar bumps.

ECM Weekly (18 August 2025)- Eve Energy, CNGR, Will Semi, 52 Toys, JSW, Bluestone, Tuas, Hexaware

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, a number of companies are lining up to start 2H listing season, which is likely to be one of the busiest over the past few years.
On the placements front as well, given ongoing earnings annoucement there were only one large placement last week.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK) Privatization – The Cancellation Price Is Not Attractive

Valuation based on Cancellation Price hasn’t fully reflected the potential of Weijing Medical Robot business, nor does it reflect the future growth driven by import substitution due to centralized procurement.
The medical device sector is expected to have a strong trend of performance reversal/valuation repair. Kangji’s fundamentals/prospects are moving in a positive direction. Reasonable valuation is HK$12-15 billion at least.
The current Cancellation Price of HK$9.25 is too low to normally reflect the Company’s true fundamentals and prospects. Therefore, we’re worried that there would be some investors opposing this privatization.

Weekly Deals Digest (17 Aug) – Kangji Medical, HKBN, Shengjing, Carenet, Shibaura, Rezil, Yomeishu

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Carenet Inc (2150 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Rezil (176A JP), Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP).

SITC International (1308 HK): A Charming 1H25

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The 1H25 net profit of US$630m (+79.7% YoY) for SITC International (1308 HK) is impressive. It maintains a generous 70% payout ratio, yielding 4.8% for the interim.
Its outlook for 2H25 stays positive despite the recent pull-back in spot rates. Overall demand-supply dynamics continue to be favourable in the short and medium term.
With interim earnings already accounting for 58% of full-year consensus, there is room for an upgrade. At 3.3x P/B, it is not expensive given 30-40% ROEs.

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Aug 17

Daily Brief China: Guangzhou Automobile Group, Tencent and more

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Rampages Onward
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Aug 2025); Big Swing Into ETFs Likely Means Swing to Tech This Wk

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Rampages Onward

By Travis Lundy

HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew” continues. Enormous swings in H/A ratios in high AH premia names, materials, and non-bank finance.
Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) fell 2.9% on the week, 2.2% from Monday close to Friday. AH premium fell a tick.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Aug 2025); Big Swing Into ETFs Likely Means Swing to Tech This Wk

By Travis Lundy

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes over US$19+bn a day this past 5-day week. Net buying OK at just under +US$1bn/day. Significantly, there was huge net buying of ETFs.
Last week’s reco Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was up 4.4% on the week, +3.1% from Monday’s close to Friday. +3.9% gain on the H/A pair.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

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Aug 16

Daily Brief China: Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Gro, Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H, Jiangxi Zhengbang Tech A, Xiaomi, Hang Seng Index, Lenovo and more

In today’s briefing:

What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed 412 HK)?
Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting
Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Privatisation on the Cards?
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 1000 Dec25: US$2.8bn One-Way; Strong Momentum for ADDs V DELs
Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Aug 11 – 15): Market Breadth Expands, Options Activity Grows
Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief

What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed 412 HK)?

Back on the 18th Feb 2025, Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) (SHS) closed its unconditional Offer for Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK). Shortly thereafter, SHS’ share price took off.
SHS is now up 190% in the past six months. And ~1800% since Covid.
What gives? It’s not index related. And forward earnings do not justify the move. This looks like a bubble. Short interest is on the move.

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Another Rural Commercial Bank Delisting

In Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?, I concluded Shengjing Bank (2066 HK) was one bank I would avoid. It’s now suspended pursuant to the Takeovers code.
Shengjing Bank had one of the largest P/B and net income declines in recent years. It had borderline allowance/provision coverage. It also had the lowest net interest margin.
Shengjing Bank is PRC-incorporated, therefore any delisting proposal would involve a Merger by Absorption, incorporating a Scheme-like vote. And probably a tendering condition.

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Privatisation on the Cards?

Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the publication of an announcement pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.”
It is likely that the SASAC of Shenyang Municipal People’s Government, the largest shareholder, is seeking to privatise Shengjing.
Precedents point to a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal. My estimated offer price range is HK$2.00-HK$2.80, a 75.4%-145% premium to the last close.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 1000 Dec25: US$2.8bn One-Way; Strong Momentum for ADDs V DELs

CSI 1000 represents the next 1000 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges after CSI 800.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
Currently, we see 100 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 1000 index.

Xiaomi (1810.HK) Q2 Earnings: Setup Features Low Volatility and Recent Underperformance

By John Ley

The setup for this earnings release is interesting as Xiaomi has underperformed HSI since the end of June.
Xiaomi’s Q2 earnings setup features low vols a strong beat record and interesting Q2 dynamics.
Implied vol sits near historic lows despite the approaching earnings.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Aug 11 – 15): Market Breadth Expands, Options Activity Grows

By John Ley

Broad-Based strength across sectors pushed HSI higher despite late-week weakness.
Option trading accelerated into week’s end, with Calls showing a modest uptick.
The HKD pulled back from the top end of its trading range after prior interventions.

Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief

By Trung Nguyen

Credit markets were stable yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over at 261 bps. European bourses rose 0.1-1.2%. In the US, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flat.
In Asia this morning, the Nikkei is up 1.0%, while the Hang Seng is down 1.1%. US equity futures are slightly higher.
WTI is trading at USD 63.8/bbl, and Brent at USD 66.7/bbl. US President Donald Trump said that he sees the upcoming meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin today as a precursor to a second and more important meeting.

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Aug 15

Daily Brief China: Huadian New Energy Group, Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry, Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group, Iron Ore, Geely Auto, China South City and more

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: Trade Moving in the Right Direction; Large Flows Expected
Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$900mn Combined Flows One-Way; New Pair Trades
Innogen (银诺医药) IPO Trading Update
[IO Technicals 2025/33] China Woes Deepen, Bearish Momentum Grips Iron Ore
Geely (175 HK): 2Q25, Revenue Up by 28% YoY
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: Trade Moving in the Right Direction; Large Flows Expected

CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
Currently, we see 10 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 49 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): Q&A With The FA

On the 12th August, Kangji Medical (9997 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from a consortium led by TPG and Qatar Investment Authority, together with the founders.
The 9.9% premium to last close was less than ideal. A change of control premium (30%+) is arguably more commonplace in Asia-Pac. However, the Offer Price is a four-year high.
I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and managed to secure a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror earlier today.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: ~US$900mn Combined Flows One-Way; New Pair Trades

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 5 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event.

Innogen (银诺医药) IPO Trading Update

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Innogen raised HKD 683m (USD 88m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, August 14th.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

[IO Technicals 2025/33] China Woes Deepen, Bearish Momentum Grips Iron Ore

By Umang Agrawal

China’s July lending drop signals weak private sector appetite, while severe weather hampers outdoor construction.
Managed money participants trimmed net long futures exposure amid rising prices, signalling profit-taking.
Bullish momentum has faded as prices dip below key moving averages and MACD signals growing seller control in the market.

Geely (175 HK): 2Q25, Revenue Up by 28% YoY

By Ming Lu

In 2Q25, Geely’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 2Q25 and its vehicle deliveries increased more rapidly by 47%.
We believe Geely is the only competitor to the market leader BYD.
We set the target price at HK$23 for the next twelve months, which is 21% above the current price.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia