In today’s briefing:
- Shein IPO Preview
- SHEIN (希音) Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison
- Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 12 Aug: Elevated Volatility, Modest Implied Move
- 2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (2690 HK) – Disciplined AI Beneficiary
- Amos Food (阿麦斯食品) Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts
- Primer: JL Mag Rare-Earth (300748 CH) – Aug 2026
- Primer: Moonshot AI (MOONSHOTAI HK) – Aug 2026
- Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (July 2026)
- Primer: BYD Company (1211 HK) – Aug 2026
- Primer: Guotai Junan International (1788 HK) – Aug 2026
Shein IPO Preview
- Shein is actively preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, tentatively scheduled for the second half of 2026.
- The company is targeting a listing valuation of US$40 billion to US$50 billion, representing a significant haircut from its historical peak valuations.
- I think the company is likely to face tough challenges in in reaching valuation at even lower end of its target valuation range.
SHEIN (希音) Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison
- SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, has passed the HKEX listing hearing. GS, MS and JPM are joint sponsors.
- In our previous note, we briefly looked at the company’s business, financials and investor backing.
- In this note, we compare the company with listed peers from financial, operating and valuation perspectives.
Tencent (700 HK) Earnings on 12 Aug: Elevated Volatility, Modest Implied Move
- Context: Tencent (700 HK)will announce H1 2026 results on 12 Aug, with 14 Aug options providing direct exposure to the earnings event.
- Highlight: Historical earnings-day moves have been modest in absolute terms but remain above the current option-implied move, despite realised and implied volatility sitting near the top of their historical ranges.
- Why Read: Gain insight into Tencent’s earnings-day price history, option-implied move, volatility term structure, and trade implications around straddles and calendar spreads.
2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (2690 HK) – Disciplined AI Beneficiary
- Despite its recent rally, Meituan (3690 HK) still lags the HSI YTD. For FY26-27F, it will be the sector’s main growth driver. Its P/B is 1SD below the 5-year average.
- It is disciplined in AI investments, focusing on operational efficiency, cost control, new business capabilities, and long-term strategic positioning.
- Its portfolio of investments equals 9.5% of market capitalisation, and includes high-profile names like Moonshot AI (MOONSHOTAI HK), Unitree Robotics (UNITREE CH), etc.
Amos Food (阿麦斯食品) Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts
- Amos Food, a Chinese sugar confectionery maker, has filed its prospectus with the HKEX. BOA, CMS, and JPM are the joint sponsors.
- We look at the company’s core segments: Amos, Biobor and third-party brands.
- We think the deal is not interesting. Revenue growth and margin expansion prospects are outweighed by large concentration risk, geopolitical risk and weak consumer-sector sentiment.
Primer: JL Mag Rare-Earth (300748 CH) – Aug 2026
- JL MAG is a global market leader in high-performance Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets, critical components for rapidly growing sectors like new energy vehicles (NEVs), wind power, and energy-efficient appliances.
- The company’s strategic position is reinforced by long-term supply agreements with key Chinese rare-earth suppliers and a vertically integrated production process, which provides a competitive advantage in a geopolitically sensitive industry.
- Financial performance is intrinsically linked to the volatile prices of rare-earth raw materials, which can cause significant margin fluctuations. However, the strong secular demand from electrification and green energy provides a robust long-term growth outlook.
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Primer: Moonshot AI (MOONSHOTAI HK) – Aug 2026
- Pioneering Chinese AI with a Focus on Large Context Models: Moonshot AI has rapidly emerged as a leading AI research lab in China, distinguished by its development of large language models (LLMs) with extensive context windows, such as its flagship Kimi chatbot. This technical specialization allows for the processing and analysis of vast amounts of text, a key differentiator in the competitive AI landscape.
- Strong Financial Backing and Rapidly Growing Valuation: The company has successfully attracted significant investment from major tech players like Alibaba and Tencent, as well as state-backed funds, leading to a multi-billion dollar valuation. This robust financial support is crucial for funding the high costs of AI research and infrastructure.
- Navigating a Complex Regulatory and Geopolitical Environment: While poised for significant growth, Moonshot AI operates within a rapidly evolving regulatory framework for AI in China and faces geopolitical tensions that could impact its access to key technologies and international expansion plans.
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Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (July 2026)
- Iron ore remains on the back foot as deepening steel mill losses sap demand. Any lift from lower Fortescue shipments will likely fade without meaningful production cuts.
- Options traders are turning more bullish, adding upside bets above 100 while steadily unwinding downside protection despite weak near-term fundamentals.
- Managed money is leaning decisively bearish. With short positions jumping by 21% in July, participants are signalling iron ore’s downside risks are far from over.
Primer: BYD Company (1211 HK) – Aug 2026
- Dominant Market Leader with Deep Vertical Integration: BYD is a global leader in New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), underpinned by a formidable competitive advantage in its deep vertical integration. The in-house production of critical components, including its proprietary Blade Batteries and semiconductors, provides significant cost control, supply chain resilience, and rapid innovation capabilities.
- Aggressive International Expansion as a Key Growth Driver: Facing a hyper-competitive and maturing domestic market, BYD is aggressively expanding its global footprint. This strategy involves not just exporting vehicles but also establishing localized manufacturing hubs in regions like Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe to mitigate tariff impacts and cater to local market preferences.
- Intense Competition and Geopolitical Risks Present Headwinds: The company’s profitability is under pressure from a severe price war in the Chinese domestic market. Furthermore, its international ambitions face significant geopolitical risks, including the imposition of tariffs and trade barriers in key markets like the European Union, which could temper its growth trajectory.
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Primer: Guotai Junan International (1788 HK) – Aug 2026
- The investment thesis is currently dominated by a potential privatization offer from its controlling shareholder, Guotai Haitong Securities, which analysts anticipate could occur at a significant premium to the last traded price.
- The company has demonstrated a strong financial turnaround, with FY25 revenue growing 41% and net income surging, reversing the weaker performance of the preceding two years and highlighting a recovery in its core operations.
- Strategic expansion into new growth areas, notably the recent regulatory approval to provide virtual-asset trading services, positions the company to capitalize on the burgeoning digital finance sector in Hong Kong.
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