Consumer

CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.
CaoCao was incubated by Geely Auto (175 HK). Geely founder Li Shufu owns 83.9% of CaoCao.
The bull case rests on accelerating GTV growth, the improving fundamentals of the core business, reducing losses and shifting to cash generation.

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound

While Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) has a stellar share price performance YTD, it still lags the HSI since 2023. The solid 2H FY25 result should support further upside.
SSS growth has recovered sharply in Apr-May 2025 (the first two months of 1Q FY26), and CTF should reap further benefits from cost management and product transformation.
FY26F ROE may reach 27.2%. While its current yield is only 4.6%, it is possible to declare special dividend this year, easily pushing it to over 10%.

Eternal Beauty Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Perfumes Growing, Challenges Remain

By Sumeet Singh

Eternal Beauty Holdings (EB) is looking to raise around US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note we talk about the PHIP updates.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG Invites Dissent After Scrapping Scrip Alternative

In an unusual move, the Offeror, PAG, and 59.42% shareholder of Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), has opted not to provide a scrip alternative, despite satisfying conditions to do so.
The scrip option condition – not less than 0.5% of shares out expressing interest – was satisfied on the 12th May. Therefore at least 7.9mn shares got snubbed.
Evidently PAG reckons the support for the scrip is not worth the trouble. Nor critical in mass to disrupt the Offer.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): No Share Alternative Offer

By Small Cap Consumer Research

PAG has decided not to introduce the share alternative offer. Therefore, its offer for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) will be all-cash at HK$2.00 per H share.
The recent Goldlion and Soundwill deal breaks have undoubtedly increased the vote risk, particularly as the blocking stake is below the HKEx substantial shareholder disclosure threshold.
The decision not to introduce the share alternative offer underscores PAG’s confidence in the vote. The lack of protest votes at the recent AGM is helpful for the scheme vote.

Liuliu Orchard Group Co Ltd Pre-IPO – Category Leader Scaling Direct Channels in Fragmented Market

By Troy Wong

Liuliu Orchard Group Co Ltd (LOGCL) is planning to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
LOGCL is China’s leading plum-based snack player, benefiting from strong consumer demand, brand leadership, and favorable health trends.
Despite operating in a fragmented market, LOGCL has consistently grown revenue through successful offline expansion, increased direct sales penetration, and effective cost control even amid raw material cost pressures.

Denso Corp(6902 JP)–Value Zone, Upgraded Growth Outlook, Sooner Resolution of Cross-Holding Overhang

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Cross-Holding Overhang Easing:Denso Corp (6902 JP) accelerates exit from Toyota Industries stake via tender offer, unlocking capital and aligning with capital efficiency and governance reforms.
Profitability Set to Improve: FY2026 profit outlook strong, driven by reduced quality-related costs, better operating leverage, and ongoing cost controls post fuel pump recall.
Valuation Comfort with Growth Drivers: Stock trades below historical average P/E; SDV, electrification, and semiconductor focus positions Denso well for re-rating amid sector tailwinds.

JAKK: Further Tariff Proofing the Model Post Mgmt. Meetings; Reiterate Buy

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $40 price target, but lowering our 2025 and 2026 projections after meeting with JAKKS management and contemplating the near and longer term impact of China tariffs on the company.
In the very near term, while only a short period (approximately 30 day) the impact of 100%+ tariffs on China goods created a virtual stop in sales at JAKKS, and with a business model focused on freight on board (“FOB”) shipping, necessitated a ramp period thereafter.
Further, the current 30% tariff will mean that, yes, there will be a Halloween and Xmas, but it could be more cautious in terms of retailers placing product bets and, will obviously hurt returns for manufacturers and the entire toy supply chain.

Meituan (3690 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week

By Gaudenz Schneider

Discover sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on Meituan (3690 HK), executed over the period from 5 June to 11 June on the Hong Kong exchange.
Highlights: A range of strategies, spanning time-horizons from just a few days to several months. Including a low-cost call spread with the potential to return approximately 8x the invested premium.
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

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Jun 12

Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, MINISO Group Holding , Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, Hotel Shilla, Pop Mart International Group L, Shinsung Tongsang, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company, JD.com , Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value
MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In
Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Listing – Strong Cornerstone, Weak Momentum
No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Change Likely; US$245mn One-Way Flow
Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS): The Family Reloads At ₩4,100/Share
Foshan Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) IPO: The Valuation Perspective
Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Valuation Insights
JD.com (9618 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
Isetan Shinjuku Takes 24% of Tokyo Market but Worries for Future

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value

Several investors have sharply criticised Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer.
The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities’ interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.
Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.

MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In

Three months ago, local media reported that Chinese lifestyle retailer MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) was considering spinning off its collectible toy unit TOP TOY on the Hong Kong exchange.
Reportedly, MINISO could raise ~US$300mn from an IPO. MINISO has now confirmed that a spin-off is being contemplated; although a proposal is only at a preliminary stage.
TOP TOY has been a growth engine. But its contribution to the group is still ~6%. Applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO’s upside appears limited.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Listing – Strong Cornerstone, Weak Momentum

By Sumeet Singh

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) (FHCC), China’s leading condiments company, aims to raise around US$1.2bn in its H-share listing.
FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025

In the next several weeks, the South Korean government is likely to provide details of a no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.
We provide a list of top 15 Korean companies that could benefit from potential no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.
These 15 companies’ share prices are up on average 49.2% YTD, sharply outperforming KOSPI and KOSDAQ that are up 21.2% and 15.9%, respectively YTD.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Change Likely; US$245mn One-Way Flow

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2025.
Based on the latest data, we see one ADD and one DEL.

Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS): The Family Reloads At ₩4,100/Share

Back June last year, Yeom Tae-soon and family sought to take apparel manufacturer Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS) private at ₩2,300, but fell short of the 95% delisting threshold.
The family have returned to the well with a more respectable ₩4,100/share Offer, a 35.8% premium to undisturbed, and optically, a fair price. The family and related parties hold 83.87%.
Should the family fall short of the 95% threshold, again, they may seek delisting through a comprehensive stock exchange.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) IPO: The Valuation Perspective

Fundamentals first, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK)‘s IPO is interesting given a positive growth outlook – 1Q25 growth accelerated to 14.8% with margin expansion.
We value the H-share at HK$39.35, 8.4% higher than the high-end of the IPO price based on 28.2x FY25F PER to reflect its significantly stronger 3-year earnings growth.
It equals 5.9x pre-money FY25F P/B, justified by ROE of 21.8-22%, sharply ahead of peers. Net cash equals 12.4% of its A-share market cap.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Valuation Insights

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK) has launched its H Share listing at HK$35.00 to HK$36.30 per H Share. Pricing will be on 17 June.
I discussed the H Share listing in Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
The proposed AH discount can be argued as either light or attractive. I lean toward the latter and would participate in the H Share listing.

JD.com (9618 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

By Gaudenz Schneider

Discover sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on JD.com (9618 HK), executed over the period from 4 June to 10 June on the HKEX
Highlights: A range of noteworthy strategies, including a deep in-the-money, three-months Diagonal Call Spread and an ultra-low-cost, one-week Calendar Put Spread, highlighting diverse approaches to capitalize on market movements.
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

Isetan Shinjuku Takes 24% of Tokyo Market but Worries for Future

By Michael Causton

Department stores had a terrific year in FY2024, especially some of the more iconic stores like Isetan Shinjuku and Hankyu Umeda.
Declining custom from tourists is beginning to be a worry but the emphasis on capturing data on core local customers has, and will, pay big dividends for the best stores.
The rest of the sector however, will continue to contract but the polarisation will help highlight the luxury positioning of the best stores.

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Jun 11

Daily Brief Consumer: Sony Corp, Hyundai Mobis, Jollibee Foods, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, BYD, MINISO Group Holding , Youngone Holdings, PDD Holdings, Taylor Wimpey and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei 225 Proposal for Dealing With Sony’s (6758) Sony Finl Spinoff – A Non-Event but TOPIX Isn’t
The Straight-Up Timelines on Three Big Econ Policy Bills Rattling Korea’s Local Market Right Now
Jollibee Foods Close to Acquiring Norang Tongdak in Korea
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (3288 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion
BYD (1211 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week
Miniso: TOP TOY Spin-Off – Early Stage Pop Mart. Valuation Upside
MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off
NAV of Hanmi Science, Amorepacific Holdings, Youngone Holdings, OCI Holdings, & Orion Holdings
PDD’s Q125 Profit Decline Occurred Before US Squeeze | April-May US Sales Far Weaker for Temu, SHEIN
Taylor Wimpey Research Report

Nikkei 225 Proposal for Dealing With Sony’s (6758) Sony Finl Spinoff – A Non-Event but TOPIX Isn’t

A couple of years ago, Sony Corp (6758 JP) announced they would spin off Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) (called Sony Financial Group Inc). That spinoff is due in Sep-2025.
The extra capital required for a tech/industrial to hold the financial business is significant, but some of the other reasons Sony has offered are just management-speak hogwash.
The problem? It creates a new event in the Nikkei 225 paradigm for which there was no rule. Now the Nikkei has proposed a rule. It isn’t perfect.

The Straight-Up Timelines on Three Big Econ Policy Bills Rattling Korea’s Local Market Right Now

By Sanghyun Park

The Commercial Act passed committee but the floor vote set for the 12th was postponed unexpectedly today; inheritance tax and Samsung Life bills remain stuck at proposal stage.
Presidential Office is pushing the Commercial Act reform hard; vote likely after new floor leader’s election. Passage is almost guaranteed, with enactment expected by early to late August.
Inheritance tax bills face heavy backlog, delaying progress; the Samsung Life Law, proposed by another party, is pushed further back as the new government prioritizes easier wins.

Jollibee Foods Close to Acquiring Norang Tongdak in Korea

It was reported in Chosun Business Daily that the Phillippine food giant Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) is close to acquiring Norang Tongdak.
The entity to be sold is a 100% stake in Norang Food, the operator of Norang Tongdak. The sales price is expected to be around 150 billion won.
EV/EBITDA multiple ranges from 7.2x to 9.3x if we assume equity value range from 130 billion won to 160 billion won.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (3288 HK): Offering Details & Index Inclusion

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.5bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK).
The H-shares could be added to a global index and the FXI ETF in December. Inclusion in the HSCI should be in September and Southbound Stock Connect in July.

BYD (1211 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week

By Gaudenz Schneider

This Insight analyzes sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on BYD (1211 HK), executed over the period from 2 June to 9 June on the HKEX
Highlights: Discover a range of noteworthy strategies, from an in-the-money bear put spread, to a bold short-term bullish iron condor, and a butterfly aiming at a narrow price target.
Why read: In-depth breakdown of complex option strategies, shedding light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

Miniso: TOP TOY Spin-Off – Early Stage Pop Mart. Valuation Upside

By Devi Subhakesan

MINISO has confirmed that it is considering a possible spin-off listing of TOP TOY, its pop toy division, signalling its intent to unlock value from its collectible toy business.
Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK), the leading player in the pop toy retail segment, is trading at nearly 50x forward earnings compared to Miniso’s 13.5x forward P/E.
TOP TOY is in an early stage of its growth curve compared to Pop Mart and could be valued at a discount given notably lower operating margins.

MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off

We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)‘s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.
TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.
Bloks Group (325 HK) is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY’s, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.

NAV of Hanmi Science, Amorepacific Holdings, Youngone Holdings, OCI Holdings, & Orion Holdings

In this insight, we provide updated NAV valuations of Hanmi Science (008930 KS), Amorepacific Holdings (002790 KS), Youngone Holdings (009970 KS), OCI Holdings (010060 KS), and Orion Holdings (001800 KS).
These five smaller holding companies have also outperformed the market this year (up 43% on average versus KOSPI which is up 20% in the same period).
These holdcos’ outperformance has been driven by investors’ perception that the new Lee Jae-Myung administration will make real changes to improve corporate governance policies.

PDD’s Q125 Profit Decline Occurred Before US Squeeze | April-May US Sales Far Weaker for Temu, SHEIN

By Daniel Hellberg

Pinduoduo’s surprise Q125 OP & NP declines happened before US tariff, de minimis changes
Recent data from Bain & Co. suggests extremely difficult US conditions for Temu, SHEIN
If representative, the April-May US data suggest deep, lasting US challenges for the platforms

Taylor Wimpey Research Report

By Ben Jones Investments

Taylor Wimpey (TW) is the UK’s third largest homebuilder, managing 14,154 completions in 2022.
Their share price has declined 44% over the last 2 years in response to rising mortgage rates.
While we acknowledge the short to medium term impact of rising rates, we see Taylor Wimpey’s long-term profitability as strong, and worth twice their current valuation.

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Jun 10

Daily Brief Consumer: Great Wall Motor, With Us Corp, Sony Corp, Trent Ltd, Tata Motors, Shinsung Tongsang, Lululemon Athletica, Pvh Corp, Trip.com and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 6 June 2025): Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents
With Us (9696 JP): NSSK’s JPY3,237 Tender Offer
Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)’s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business
Quiddity BSE/SENSEX Jun25 Results: 23/26 Correct; ~US$600mn Total One-Way Flows
Reiterate Short Tata Motors – Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak
Shinsung Tongsang: A Second Try at Tender Offer and Privatization
Can Lululemon Athletica Strike Back? Some Bold Moves to Crush Tariffs & Supply Chain Chaos!
Lululemon 1Q’25 Update
PVH Is Reinventing Calvin Klein And Tommy Hilfiger: Inside Its Recent
Weak Spending over China’s Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Period Suggests Tourists Remain Frugal

A/H Premium Tracker (To 6 June 2025): Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

AH spreads are slightly narrower. BANKS, INSURERS, BROKERS, INDUSTRIALS, PHARMA and UTILITIES see significant H-share outperformance vs their A pairs. TECH, CONSUMER, ENERGY mixed to worse.
Ongoing skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium <20% saw H outperform sharply but those with H Premia contracted. Quiddity Portfolio alpha trending strongly.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

With Us (9696 JP): NSSK’s JPY3,237 Tender Offer

With Us Corp (9696 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Nippon Sangyo Suishin Kiko (NSSK) at JPY3,237, an 18.0% premium to the last close price.
The offer represents an all-time high and concludes SwissAsia’s activist campaign to spill the Board at the AGM on 26 June.
SwissAsia and the founding family have provided irrevocables (39.81% ownership ratio), paving the way for deal completion.

Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)’s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business

For each share of Sony Corp (6758 JP), shareholders will receive 1 share of Sony Financial Group. Ex-date for the dividend in-kind is 29 September.
The Nikkei has started a market consultation on treatment of the spinoff in the Nikkei225 and that means the dividend in-kind will not be included in the Dividend Point Index.
There will be some selling in SFGI from passive trackers and the company will buy back some stock following listing. Details of the buyback have not been announced yet.

Quiddity BSE/SENSEX Jun25 Results: 23/26 Correct; ~US$600mn Total One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The semiannual index rebal events of the SENSEX index, BSE 100 index, and BSE 200 index will take place in June 2025.
There will be two changes for BSE Sensex, three changes for BSE 100, and eight changes for BSE 200.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations.

Reiterate Short Tata Motors – Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak

By Sreemant Dudhoria

We continue to reiterate our short call on Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) based on near term challenges.
May sales volume is weak versus peers in industry. This weak performance is seen across segments – India passenger cars, commercial vehicles and UK Retail sales
This insight discusses the whole sale volume in the month of May and compares it with its nearest competitors.

Shinsung Tongsang: A Second Try at Tender Offer and Privatization

On 9 June, Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS) announced a second tender offer after a failed attempt last year. Tender offer price is 4,100 won per share.
The tender offer price this time (second try) is much higher than recent prices, making it much more likely that the tender offer will be successful.
From 2019 to 2023, Top Ten’s sales nearly tripled whereas Uniqlo Korea’s sales declined by about 33% in the same period.

Can Lululemon Athletica Strike Back? Some Bold Moves to Crush Tariffs & Supply Chain Chaos!

Lululemon Athletica Inc. reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, posting revenue growth that reached the high end of its guidance range with a notable improvement in the United States, where revenues grew by 2%.
The overall revenue increased by 7% (or 8% in constant currency) reaching $2.4 billion, driven by strong performance across various regions, despite a seemingly cautious consumer sentiment in the U.S. The brand witnessed robust in-market performance with revenues in Canada increasing by 9% and a significant 22% increase in Mainland China.
The company also saw 17% revenue growth in the rest of the world.

Lululemon 1Q’25 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

Lulu is again back to LSD growth in the US; what makes it more disappointing is they actually had a somewhat easier comparison since 1Q’24 growth was just 2%.
Canada, despite a low double digit growth in 1Q’24, again had higher growth than the US this quarter.
China and Rest of the World (RoW) maintained healthy growth rates but growth has materially decelerated.

PVH Is Reinventing Calvin Klein And Tommy Hilfiger: Inside Its Recent

PVH Corp.’s first-quarter 2025 performance reflects a balance of achievements and challenges in a complex macroeconomic environment.
On the positive side, PVH delivered revenue growth that surpassed company guidance, attributable to the effective execution of its PVH+ Plan.
The revenue increased by 2%, exceeding expectations due to stronger-than-projected wholesale performance, early shipments, and the relaunch of Calvin Klein women’s sportswear and jeans in North America.

Weak Spending over China’s Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Period Suggests Tourists Remain Frugal

By Daniel Hellberg

China’s Ministry of Tourism & Culture reported mediocre holiday travel & spending activity
Separately, Xinhua also reported underwhelming numbers from Dragon Boat Festival period
Weak travel numbers may indicate Chinese consumers remain uneasy about near-term outlook

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Jun 09

Daily Brief Consumer: Aurora World, Fuji Corp, Toyota Industries, Tam Jai International, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Bajaj Auto Ltd, Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Curator’s Cut: The Next Labubu, Crypto Equities and Tracking APAC Buybacks
[Japan M&A] Private Co Takeout of Fuji Corp (7605 JP) – A Done Deal
Fuji Corp (7605 JP): Usami Koyu’s JPY2,830 Tender Offer Is Light but Done
Weekly Deals Digest (08 Jun) – Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp, Tam Jai, PointsBet, Mayne
Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Privatisation Stays Appealing Despite…
A Reluctance to Confront Shareholders Is at the Root of Many Problems
KTM Saga, Short Bajaj Auto – There’s a Lot to Chew On
Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Business Is Deteriorating Despite Rosy Gold Prices

Curator’s Cut: The Next Labubu, Crypto Equities and Tracking APAC Buybacks

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we look at an Asian toy manufacturer not named Pop Mart or Dream Int’l, the mashup between crypto and equity markets and the takeaways from tracking buybacks
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next

[Japan M&A] Private Co Takeout of Fuji Corp (7605 JP) – A Done Deal

The long-term major owner now chairman is getting out. The company was shopped. And bought. And this is the deal. ¥2,830 which is about 5.7x this year’s EBITDA.
It could have been done a bit better, but irrevocables are 48.5% out of the 50.01% minimum and other directors get this past the minimum hurdle.
Transparency is lacking but it is an all-time high and you can’t do much about it.

Fuji Corp (7605 JP): Usami Koyu’s JPY2,830 Tender Offer Is Light but Done

Fuji Corp (7605 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Usami Koyu at JPY2,830, a 32.2% premium to the last close price.
Unusually for a Board recommended offer, the lower limit will not achieve a 66.67% ownership ratio. Based on past EGM voting ratios, it is set at a 50.01% ownership ratio.
While the offer represents an all-time high, it is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. However, due to irrevocables, this is a done deal.

Weekly Deals Digest (08 Jun) – Toyota Industries, Makino, Fuji Corp, Tam Jai, PointsBet, Mayne

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$1 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Fuji Corp (7605 JP), Tam Jai International (2217 HK), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).

Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Privatisation Stays Appealing Despite…

Despite some disgruntled investors, the privatisation of Tam Jai International (2217 HK) is appealing. If it is successful, payment will be made on or before 26 Aug.
The proposed price of HK$1.58 equals a 24% premium to the peer CY25F PER. The poor reported peer results and earnings downgrades are the reasons for a narrower premium.
Since the announcement of privatisation, the sector has retreated by 7.8%, vs. a 5.2% gain in HSI, reflecting the industry’s tough operating environment. It remains wise to exit.

A Reluctance to Confront Shareholders Is at the Root of Many Problems

By Aki Matsumoto

Until now, listed companies have been reluctant to even lower the minimum shareholder purchase amount for reasons of economic rationality and administrative costs.
The same issues underlie reluctance of companies in lowering amount to purchase shares, online AGMs, electronic delivery of text in notice of convocations, and pre-AGM disclosure of annual securities reports.
Companies have been focused on controlling AGM rather than facing shareholders to increase their interests. This practice is problem that can lead to slower ROE and excessive cash on hand.

KTM Saga, Short Bajaj Auto – There’s a Lot to Chew On

By Sreemant Dudhoria

We cover the multiple factors which led to the operational and financial mess at Pierer Mobility AG, the holding company of KTM.
This insight highlights the past not so great track record of Indian companies acquiring European businesses due to cultural, operational integration and higher restructuring costs.
Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) remains strong domestically, but KTM’s losses, debt, and integration hurdles risk compressing margins and return ratios at the consolidated level. We recommend Shorting Bajaj Auto.

Zhou Liu Fu Pre-IPO: Business Is Deteriorating Despite Rosy Gold Prices

By Nicholas Tan

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH) is looking to raise $US200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leading and fast growing jewellery franchise in China offering a diverse range of products through offline and online sales channels.
In this note, we provide updates on the firm’s past performance.

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Jun 08

Daily Brief Consumer: Able C&C, Toyota Industries, NIFTY Index, Procter & Gamble Co, Viking Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

A Visit to Daiso in Seoul – A Retail Giant Crushing the Competition
Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Indust. Great Eastern, Mayne Pharma, Shibaura Elect., New World
Nifty 50 Tactical Outlook After RBI’s Steep Rate Cut
Procter & Gamble (P&G)’s 7
Viking Holdings Is Quietly Becoming the Hottest Cruise Stock — Why Smart Money Thinks It’s About to Soar!

A Visit to Daiso in Seoul – A Retail Giant Crushing the Competition

I recently visited Daiso near Seoul Station. Daiso is one of the few off-line stores that has been crushing the competition in Korea in the past several years.
Amid continued weak economy in Korea in the past several years, Daiso has thrived through its detailed execution of focus on low priced products with highest value to consumers.
Able C&C (078520 KS) is a prime example a company capitalizing on the strong demand for cosmetic products at Daiso.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Indust. Great Eastern, Mayne Pharma, Shibaura Elect., New World

The value realisation of selling cross-holdings should not be contingent on selling your shares to someone else too cheaply but that is exactly what Toyota is proposing here.
OCBC is doing the right thing. Although a 17.8% bump in terms for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)‘s minorities is probably not enough to dislodge Palliser.
Cosette has lodged a termination notice, which Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) rejects. It’s anyone’s guess whether this saga concludes with a price cut; or Cosette walking.

Nifty 50 Tactical Outlook After RBI’s Steep Rate Cut

By Nico Rosti

The NIFTY Index rallied after RBI cuts key policy rate by 50 bps to 5.50%(but RBI governor said there is limited policy space from here).
Inflation forecast was cut to 3.7%; GDP growth forecast retained at 6.5, but Trump’s trade tariffs and the prospect of a global economic slowdown are generating uncertainty.
The NIFTY was already moving up in the last 2 days and accelerated sharply on Friday. But our model signals that the index is not overbought, it can go higher.

Procter & Gamble (P&G)’s 7

Procter & Gamble, the global powerhouse behind brands like Tide, Pampers, and Gillette, has announced one of its most significant organizational shake-ups in recent years.
The company plans to cut 7,000 nonmanufacturing jobs globally—roughly 15% of its non-factory workforce—over the next two years.
This move is part of a broader noncore restructuring program estimated to cost between $1 billion and $1.6 billion before tax, with about 25% of that in noncash charges.

Viking Holdings Is Quietly Becoming the Hottest Cruise Stock — Why Smart Money Thinks It’s About to Soar!

Viking recently reported its first-quarter results for 2025, showcasing a solid financial and operational performance.
The company experienced a 7.1% increase in net yields alongside a 14.9% capacity boost compared to the previous year.
Total revenue reached nearly $900 million, approximately three times higher than in 2019, reflecting strong demand for Viking’s offerings and the disciplined implementation of its growth strategy.

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Jun 07

Daily Brief Consumer: PDD Holdings, ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE, Gap Inc/The, elf Beauty Inc, Helloworld Ltd, Costco Wholesale, Signet Jewelers, American Eagle Outfitters, Ulta Beauty , Burlington Stores and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Pinduoduo (PDD): Plunged After Weak Results, But Overly Impacted
Event-Driven Optionality in ProSieben: Playing the Floor, Targeting the Upside
Gap Inc.: An Insight Into Its Product Innovation & Brand Rejuvenation Efforts & Key Growth Catalysts!
e.l.f. Beauty Just Acquired rhode—Can This Power Duo Redefine Celebrity Skincare?
Webjet Group Faces Potential Takeover Amidst Interest from BGH Capital, Helloworld, and International Giants
Costco Wholesale Corporation: Supply Chain Optimization to Enhance Efficiency & Support Competitive Pricing Strategy!
How Signet Jewelers Is Boosting Margins With Smarter Promotions & Precision Inventory Control!
American Eagle Outfitters: Will Its Latest Brand Amplification & Consumer Reach Efforts Be A Much Needed Breakthrough?
Ulta Beauty: Omnichannel Strategy & Technology Integration to Up Their Game!
Burlington Stores: Expansion of Store Footprint to Optimize Customer Engagement & Sales Efficiency!

Pinduoduo (PDD): Plunged After Weak Results, But Overly Impacted

By Ming Lu

The stock price plunged by 16% after the 1Q25 results.
The two major competitors benefited from the state subsidies, but PDD did not.
However, PDD balances well between revenue growth and operating cash flow.

Event-Driven Optionality in ProSieben: Playing the Floor, Targeting the Upside

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Offer Period: Both PPF and MFE offers expire August 13, 2025, allowing shareholders to weigh competing bids. The synchronized deadline heightens pressure on MFE to respond or risk losing influence.
Options Strategy: Buying the €7.10 call offers low-cost exposure to a potential bump. With breakeven at €7.26 and decent delta, it’s a tactical way to play a revised MFE bid.
Spread Trade: A €7.10/€7.40 call spread caps risk at €0.10 and offers 3:1 reward potential. Attractive for investors expecting moderate upside without committing full premium or needing full stock exposure.

Gap Inc.: An Insight Into Its Product Innovation & Brand Rejuvenation Efforts & Key Growth Catalysts!

The Gap Inc. reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results showcasing a mix of positive outcomes and ongoing challenges across its portfolio of brands.
Highlights of the quarter include improvements in certain financial metrics and continued execution of its strategic initiatives, although the company is facing headwinds primarily related to tariffs which could impact its financial outlook.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

e.l.f. Beauty Just Acquired rhode—Can This Power Duo Redefine Celebrity Skincare?

By Special Situation Investments

e.l.f. Beauty recently reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year of 2025, characterized by continued momentum and strategic expansion initiatives.
The company exhibited a robust growth trajectory, marking its 25th consecutive quarter of net sales growth.
For fiscal 2025, net sales increased by 28%, while adjusted EBITDA went up by 26%.

Webjet Group Faces Potential Takeover Amidst Interest from BGH Capital, Helloworld, and International Giants

BGH Capital and Garry Weiss hold an 11% stake in WJL, acquired at A$0.80/share, and submitted a rejected offer at the same price.
Helloworld increased its stake in WJL to 15%, purchasing shares at A$0.85 and A$0.89/share, and proposed a merger.
WJL suspended its share buyback program amid takeover interest, and instructed advisors to explore alternative buyers.

Costco Wholesale Corporation: Supply Chain Optimization to Enhance Efficiency & Support Competitive Pricing Strategy!

Costco Wholesale Corporation’s financial and operational performance during the third quarter of fiscal 2025 reflects a mix of strategic growth and operational challenges.
The company reported net income of $1.9 billion, an increase of over 13% from the previous year, and net sales rose to $61.96 billion, up 8% compared to the prior year.
These improvements were driven by solid sales momentum despite persistent headwinds like a $130 million LIFO charge and adverse foreign exchange impacts, which collectively affected net profit.

How Signet Jewelers Is Boosting Margins With Smarter Promotions & Precision Inventory Control!

Signet Jewelers reported its First Quarter Fiscal 2026 results showcasing a mix of positive advancements and prevailing challenges.
The company outperformed its own expectations with growth in same-store sales and operating income, marking a promising start to the fiscal year.
Signet’s performance is underpinned by its “Grow Brand Love” strategy, aimed at long-term sustainable growth by aligning its brands—Kay, Zales, and Jared—with customer expectations and improving brand equity.

American Eagle Outfitters: Will Its Latest Brand Amplification & Consumer Reach Efforts Be A Much Needed Breakthrough?

American Eagle Outfitters Inc.’s (AEO) recent quarterly earnings report presents a nuanced picture, highlighting both challenges and prospects for the company.
The company experienced a disappointing quarter with an adjusted operating loss of $68 million, influenced by a 5% decline in consolidated revenue to $1.1 billion and a 3% drop in comparable sales.
Notably, gross profit was heavily impacted by a $75 million inventory write-down, resulting in a substantial gross margin decline to 29.6%.

Ulta Beauty: Omnichannel Strategy & Technology Integration to Up Their Game!

Ulta Beauty recently reported its first quarter results for fiscal year 2025, reflecting a performance that exceeded initial expectations.
The company’s net sales grew by 4.5% to $2.8 billion, while operating profit was recorded at 14.1% of sales, translating to diluted earnings per share of $6.70.
This growth came amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment, where consumers are increasingly making trade-offs in other areas but maintaining spending in beauty and wellness.

Burlington Stores: Expansion of Store Footprint to Optimize Customer Engagement & Sales Efficiency!

Burlington Stores, Inc.’s first quarter 2025 performance presents a nuanced financial landscape characterized by growth amidst uncertainty.
The company’s total sales increased by 6%, building on an 11% growth from the previous year, yet comparable store sales remained flat.
This sales performance was consistent with Burlington’s guidance, signaling a stable market position despite external pressures.

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Jun 06

Daily Brief Consumer: Tam Jai International, Ola Electric, yutori , Lands’ End Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document
Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.
Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.
Yutori Doubles Sales Again
LE: 1Q Review: Holding the Course in Rough Waters; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Anxiety Creeps in Ahead of the Scheme Document

The spread to TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)’s HK$1.58 offer for Tam Jai International (2217 HK) has risen to 9.7% ahead of the scheme document’s release.
Several readers have asked whether the Tam Jai offer will mirror the Goldlion and Soundwill deal break. The schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
The scheme’s vote risk has undoubtedly increased partly due to the recent 2025 results and deal breaks. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Excellent Offer. Still.

By Small Cap Consumer Research

On the 17th Feb, a specialty restaurant-operator Tam Jai (2217 HK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from TORIDOLL (3397 JP) at HK$1.58/share, a 75.56% premium to undisturbed.
This should get up; but really, given the recent Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) and Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) failures, small, illiquid arbs are not the preferred haven for arb investors.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 30th June, and payment on or before the 26 August. The IFA (Lego Corporate) says “fair & reasonable“.

Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.

By Devi Subhakesan

Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) and Kia Corp (000270 KS) have exited their investment in Ola Electric through a combined stake sale worth USD80 million, at a discount to market prices.
The exit marks the end of their 2019 investment in the then-unlisted 2W EV startup and highlights rising investor concerns over Ola Electric’s growth trajectory and operational challenges.
Ola Electric had listed less than a year ago with bullish growth projections, but the stock is down 34% from the issue price and 63% from post-IPO high prices.

Yutori Doubles Sales Again

By Michael Causton

Yutori is still a small business but is sometimes dubbed the Zozo of youth fashion, which is probably why Zozo bought a share in the online mall.
And it’s proving a good bet, with sales doubling last year and a lot more expansion to come.
Thanks in part to investment in retail stores but also its uncanny ability to spot youth trends.

LE: 1Q Review: Holding the Course in Rough Waters; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Lands’ End and leaving our projections for the remainder of FY25 and FY26 basically unchanged after the company reported inline 1Q EPS, but revenue and EBITDA at the lower end of their guidance and below Street expectations.
That said, given the shift to higher licensing revenue (up 60%), the overall 1Q YoY revenue decline of 8.5%, with gross margins rising 210 bp, was not a material surprise.
Management reiterated FY25 guidance, as the company has mitigated the impact of tariffs and is focused on continuing to drive higher overall returns via increased licensing, lower inventories and discounting and shifting the customer base to a younger group focused on solutions for their lifestyle.

What the Tokyo Market Needs Is a Metabolism and Replacement with Motivated Managers

By Aki Matsumoto

The background for raising the maintaining listing criteria was that the current criteria are loose and that many companies aren’t motivated to grow because they consider IPO to be goal.
Too long time horizons and previous listing maintenance criteria that might have been manageable did not create a sense of urgency for the company to grow.
There’s concern that quality of standard market, to which companies that fail the criteria migrate, will deteriorate, and the entire market will need metabolism and replacement of management through M&A.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief Consumer: Pop Mart International Group L, Toyota Motor, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management, Mao Geping Cosmetics, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech, Vera Bradley, Sligro Food Group Nv, Busy Ming Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out
Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Outlook Amid Uncertainty Over Toyota Industries Privatization Bid
Success Experiences Will Be Necessary for IR to Function
Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO – Fast-Growing Noodle Chain Navigates Competition
Mao Geping IPO Lockup – Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release
Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.
Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech Pre-IPO Tearsheet
VRA: 1Q Preview: Rebuilding Continues; Reiterate Buy Rating, $4 PT
What’s News in Amsterdam – 4 June (ABN Amro | PostNL | Sligro Food Group | Dutch politics)
Busy Ming Pre-IPO: Scaled up but Fragmented Market

FXI Rebalance: Pop Mart, SF Holding In; China Merchant Sec, China Railway Out

By Small Cap Consumer Research

Pop Mart (9992 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) will replace China Railway Group (390 HK) and China Merchants Securities (6099 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US).
Passive trackers will need to buy between 0.4-0.6x ADV in the adds and sell between 0.5-1.3x ADV in the deletes. There are some small capping flows too.
There are a lot of shorts in Pop Mart (9992 HK), China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) and China China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK).

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Outlook Amid Uncertainty Over Toyota Industries Privatization Bid

By Nico Rosti

Travis Lundy and Arun George have recently written extensively about Toyota Industries (6201 JP) proposed takeover. Read the details in their insights.
Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is involved: 2 weeks ago we predicted a rally, and the rally did happen and went past our suggested profit target – time for an update.
Toyota Motor (7203 JP) at the end of last week was overbought, according to our model. Any catalyst could trigger a sell off from here but let’s analyze the models….

Success Experiences Will Be Necessary for IR to Function

By Aki Matsumoto

While TSE will require companies to have IR staff, but most companies disclose that they have IR staff, there is gap with investors who believe that IR is not functioning.
The issue is the substance issue, as most companies have disclosed that they have already conducted the information meetings included in the implementation of specific IR activities expected by TSE.
The reason why many companies still do not make IR function may be because they do not realize the effect of IR in terms of higher stock valuations.

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO – Fast-Growing Noodle Chain Navigates Competition

By Troy Wong

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (GXNCM) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
GXNCM has shown strong growth momentum by expanding its network of corporate-owned restaurants and improving overall profitability, benefiting from post-COVID recovery and economies of scale, with operational performance turning positive.
However, its reliance on price cuts to stay competitive, coupled with weakening same-store sales and a highly fragmented market, raises concerns about long-term sustainability.

Mao Geping IPO Lockup – Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release

By Sumeet Singh

Mao Geping Cosmetics raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) – H2FY25 Outlook, Cost Management & Pricing Optimization to Drive Growth.

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Despite short-term demand headwinds, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) remains well-positioned for structural growth via product premiumization(e.g.,CTF Rouge,Palace Museum), omni-channel scaling, and selective global expansion in culturally aligned markets.
Company continues to defend margins through product mix optimization (fixed-price gold up to 25.6% of gold RSV),disciplined SG&A control, and aggressive retail network rationalization.
Trading at ~26xx TTM P/E, it commands premium to peers, backed by industry-leading ROE (~25%),brand strength,and high dividend payout (~79%), though clear earnings rebound remains key to justify the multiple.

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech Co., Ltd. (SFC) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Citic, and Huatai.
SFC is the leader among China’s premium domestic skincare brands with a focus on anti-wrinkle and firming skincare market In 2024, its flagship brand, Forest Cabin.
As of FY24, Forest Cabin had 188 SKUs with its core products at a recommended retail price range of RMB 200-800, targeting primarily consumers aged 25-40.

VRA: 1Q Preview: Rebuilding Continues; Reiterate Buy Rating, $4 PT

We are reiterating our Buy, rating, $4 price target and projections for Vera Bradley with the company announcing 1QFY26 (April) results before the open on Wednesday.
We believe Vera Bradley has continued to take steps to return to prominence, from returning key styles and features, adding more licensed items at both the main line and outlet stores and continuing to shift their looks to appeal to a younger customer base.
Further, while the company remains impacted by the lag between loss of older customers and a shift to a younger group, management has been aggressive in reducing cash spend, which in the near term, unfortunately, has resulted in further main line store closures.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 4 June (ABN Amro | PostNL | Sligro Food Group | Dutch politics)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • ABN Amro | launches a new digital bank aimed at younger part Gen-Z segment • PostNL | not clear what Dutch cabinet crisis means for Postal Act revision • Sligro Food Group | acquisition of GEPU extends its delivery proposition • Dutch politics | Wilders pulled the plug on Dutch coalition government

Busy Ming Pre-IPO: Scaled up but Fragmented Market

By Nicholas Tan

Busy Ming Group (BMG HK) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China. Stores are typically located in high-traffic, high visibility, and easily accessible street-side locations.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Jun 04

Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, BYD, PointsBet Holdings , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, IFBH, Primo Global, Li Auto , Dollar Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder
[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)
PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Returns with a Revised Offer and a Potential Takeover Offer
PointsBet (PBH AU): MIXI Bumps To A$1.20. Betr’s DD Continues
KOSPI 200 Update: Market Moves After Lee Jae-Myung’s Victory
IFBH Ltd Pre- IPO – Growth Driven by Coconut Water Products Amid High Concentration Risks
Primo Global Holdings: A Bridal Business with Long Presence, Short on Performance
[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Earnings Review]: Key Question Is Still the New Model Launches
Dollar Industries: Navigating Market Headwinds with Strategic Investments and Focus

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder

Toyota Industries (6201 JP) disclosed a preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan at JPY16,300, a 23.3% premium to the undisturbed price but a 11.4% discount to last close.
While representing a pre-rumour all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range. The Board has a neutral recommendation.
The offer undermines minorities as it lacks split pricing for the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and its affiliates’ shareholding and likely undervalues the significant real estate holdings.

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) Proposed Takeover – It Looks Bad, and It’s Worse Than It Looks

2wks ago I said “a deal could be announced near-term.” 2wks later we have a deal. But it is a bad deal for TICO minorities. Low price. Minimal transparency. Awful.
But if you dig through deal structure and economics, it is worse than it looks. It takes digging to understand how bad, and they could tell you, but they won’t.
The deal will take time. Things will be in limbo til then. And Toyota Group governance and capital allocation is conditional on this deal getting done, which is also bad.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$8.1bn of Flows Post Capping (June 2025)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This leads to large flows.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$63.55bn (US$8.1bn). There are 12 stocks with over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The trade size is much bigger than usual due to the inclusion of BYD in the HSTECH Index and due to a change in the FAF methodology for Secondary Listings.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Returns with a Revised Offer and a Potential Takeover Offer

PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) has disclosed a revised Mixi Inc (2121 JP) offer at A$1.20, a 13.2% premium to the previous A$1.06 offer and a 10.6% premium to last close.
Due to Betr’s 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi’s scheme, Mixi will consider an off-market takeover offer of A$1.20 with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition.
Mixi’s revised offer is superior to Betr’s if synergies are not factored in. While the Betr’s all-cash offer is equivalent to Mixi’s, it is subject to scale-back.

PointsBet (PBH AU): MIXI Bumps To A$1.20. Betr’s DD Continues