Consumer

• NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
• In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.
• We see two changes for the NIFTY 50 index and five changes for the NIFTY 100 index.

• Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ) disclosed a conditional takeover offer from City Developments (CIT SP) at NZ$2.25, a 25.0% premium to the undisturbed price of NZ$1.80 (17 January).
• The key condition is a 90% minimum acceptance condition, which will be an issue as the offer is materially below NTA on a historical cost and market-value-based approach.
• CDL has three options to address shareholder resistance: lower the minimum acceptance threshold, increase the offer price, or continue extending the close. 

• Abrupt change in course for HSI which bottomed on Monday and moved higher in a straight line the rest of the week. Price action was aided by stabilization in Tencent.
• Implied vols were softer on the week and have a fairly large spread to historic vols. Caution warranted for long vol positions as this can persist with holidays dead ahead.  
• Call volumes have rebounded to normal levels with the strong price action.

• Sonos, a renowned name in the premium audio industry, has recently faced one of its most challenging years.
• The company, known for its seamless blend of hardware and software, suffered a significant setback due to a disastrous app update that disrupted the user experience for millions.
• Released in May 2024, the redesigned app, meant to accelerate innovation, instead turned functional speakers into non-operational devices.

• Ultrajaya Milk remains one of Indonesia’s leading dairy companies with a leading 36% market share of the UHT milk market, with Indonesia being one of the lowest consumers in ASEAN.  
• The company has seen a strong recovery in its dairy business and will be a key beneficiary of the school meals program in Indonesia, launched this year by President Prabowo.
• Ultrajaya‘s new distribution centre in MM2100 is now operating with manufacturing to start in 3Q2025, helping to drive longer-term growth. Valuation is attractive versus peer Cimory with growth outlook improving. 

• LIFULL Co., Ltd. (hereafter, the Company) operates one of Japan’s largest real estate and housing information sites, LIFULL HOME’S, which works with real estate companies across Japan to provide listings for rental and for-sale properties.
• Emphasizing a user-first approach, it not only offers property information but also supports users’ decision making through features such as information on living conditions by area, user reviews, and AI-driven recommendations.
• Beyond real estate, the Company has expanded into new businesses, including LIFULL Kaigo, a matching platform for senior living facilities, and LIFULL Regional Revitalization, to meet a broad range of user needs.

• Eco-Shop Marketing (ECO MY)  is looking to raise about US$226m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO.
• ES is the largest dollar chain in Malaysia, as per the number of stores it operates. The firm operates an extensive network of stores across Malaysia.
• In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

• RaaS has published an update on 3D spatial data solutions group Pointerra (ASX:3DP) following the release of the company’s best ever quarterly results, from a cash receipts, operating cashflow and organic cash growth perspective.
• Q2 FY25 cash receipts of $4.24m were up 219% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and 38% against Q1 FY25.
• Operating cash inflow for Q2 was $1.45m, a $2.89m turnaround on the operating cash flow reported in Q2 FY24 and a 367% improvement on Q1 FY25.

• On Friday 17 January, the closing date of the CVC Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) at ¥1,150/share, the bidder announced an extension of the Tender Offer.
• They also announced a bump to ¥1,250/share, and that included a comment saying they resolved not to raise the price further. 
• This happened during market hours, and the price jumped to just below ¥1,250/share. But one should not consider this a done deal. For reasons…

• Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ) (MCK), a Kiwi hotel chain, has announced that City Developments (CIT SP), its major shareholder, has made an Offer for shares not held. 
• City Dev is offering NZ$2.25/share, a 25% premium to last close. City holds 75.86% and the offer is conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held. 
• Reg approvals include OIA, which should be rubber-stamped. Very illiquid company.

• Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) stock has dropped 36% year-to-date and is now under an F&O ban after open interest hit threshold limits.
• The rumours driving the stock decline lack financial or strategic relevance with no substantial reason for long-term investors to panic.
• The stock correction has realigned Kalyan’s P/E discount to Titan, with current levels likely to stabilise and thus provide a near term support for Kalyan Jeweller’s stock price.

• With 10 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 15.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 52bn (US$600m). All forecast changes, bar one, have over 1.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• All the forecast deletes are F&O members while two adds are not. NSE Indices could revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.

• China-focused Twitter user “pandawatch” posted a tweet comparing the total shareholder return of Chinese tech companies.

• At the top of the list was online retailer JD.com (JD US — US$57 billion) with a total dividend yield and buyback yield of 10% — even after deducting share-based compensation. That’s impressively high.

• JD is one of China’s largest e-commerce companies. It dominates the niche of selling authentic, branded goods online with fast and reliable delivery.

• Due to intense competition, freshly-made beverage market has shown signs of saturation after rapid growth in previous years. Guming is currently in a bottleneck period. Future performance growth will decline.
• Due to a decrease in consumption, we have seen the price war in this industry. We think Guming’s profit margin performance will decline in the future if it reduces prices.
• Guming’s valuation should be higher than Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) and Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) due to larger revenue scale/higher net profit margin, but lower than MIXUE.

• The previous share price of FUJISOFT did not reach the value it should have, and therefore, the company did not achieve its management goal of maximizing shareholder profit.
• The decision for shareholder return or investment in growth rests with management. Cash returned to shareholders is simply invested by investors to find investments where they can earn better investment.
• Rather than “shareholder pressure,” we should think this is the beginning of an effort to return to the basics of shareholder-oriented management, which is to expand shareholder interests.

• Duolingo has made headlines recently with a sharp rise in users flocking to its Mandarin courses.
• This surge coincides with a wave of U.S. users abandoning TikTok amidst uncertainty about its future, following potential bans discussed by the U.S. Supreme Court.
• As TikTok users migrate to RedNote (Xiaohongshu), a Chinese social media app, interest in Mandarin has grown significantly, contributing to a 216% year-over-year increase in Mandarin learners on Duolingo.

• There do not seem to be many companies that have executed large one-time dividends that have subsequently grown in corporate value.
• Now that the exit from deflationary economy is seen and profit margins have room to grow, the environment is conducive to investing in growth, and companies have opportunities to change.
• Limited profit growth is making it easier for market risk-taking investors to leave. Unless companies can grow profitably, Tokyo market will be full of private equity funds and activist investors.

• Walgreens Boots Alliance’s latest earnings reveals a mixed financial and strategic picture for the company, which has been taking significant strides in response to ongoing challenges and strategic realignments.
• On the positive side, the company has initiated a turnaround strategy for its U.S. Retail Pharmacy business as a crucial focus area.
• The company made progress in optimizing its store footprint, with positive early results and better-than-expected script retention rates following store closures.

• The Simply Good Foods Company’s first quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings call has provided insights into the company’s performance and strategy going forward, reflecting both opportunities and challenges within their portfolio.
• The company reported a 10.6% increase in net sales, boosted primarily by the acquisition of Only What You Need (OWYN).
• Legacy net sales remained flat, impacted by shipment timing issues, although net sales growth in the Quest brand was strong despite some initial stockouts.

• WD-40 Company reported solid financial results for its first fiscal quarter of 2025, indicating growth and strategic shifts in priority areas.
• Net sales for the quarter were $153.5 million, a 9% increase from the same quarter last year, driven largely by maintenance products, which saw a 10% rise.
• This growth in core products underscores the company’s strategic focus on expanding its footprint in the maintenance market.

• Shankara Building Products L (SHANKARA IN) plans to demerge its steel manufacturing and building materials marketplace, enabling each business to operate independently with tailored leadership and capital allocation strategies.
• This separation allows for targeted expansions in non-steel product lines and dedicated manufacturing improvements, potentially raising margins and fueling profitable growth in India’s booming construction market.
• Focused leadership, improved transparency, and strategic capital deployment could enhance investor confidence, offering significant upside as Shankara refocuses on high-growth segments and streamlines its operations post-demerger.

• Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) disclosed a revised tender offer from CVC at JPY1,250, an 8.7% premium to the previous JPY1,150 offer. The offer has been declared final.
• The revised offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. Since the announcement of the offer, the share price has never exceeded it.
• CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross spread of 0.2% is unattractive. 

• Hepsiburada, a Turkish e-commerce company, is being acquired by Kazakh ‘super app’ Kaspi at a price of $4.75 per Class B share
• Current market price of HEPS is $3.35, presenting a potential merger arbitrage opportunity for investors
• Market misunderstanding of Turkish capital market rules may lead to a mandatory offer for remaining Class B shares at the same price in cash

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• For the first time in decades, Ahold Delhaize’s main Dutch rival Jumbo saw its FY24 sales falling short of the prior year’s level.
• Besides, its market share decreased for the third consecutive year. According to Jumbo, both are mainly the result of price cuts and the ban on tobacco sales, which has been in force since July.
• Royal Jumbo Food Group’s FY24 sales came in at EUR 10.72bn, down by about 2.7% when compared to a year earlier. 

• Back on the 6th December 2024, Lifestyle China (2136 HK), a PRC department store operator, announced a Scheme from Thomas Lau, its chairman/CEO and major shareholder (74.91%, including concert parties).
• The HK$0.913 Offer price was miserly 21.7% premium to last close. But not declared final. 
• The Offer deserved a bump, and Lau has obliged. However, the revised HK$0.98/share bid, a 30.6% premium to undisturbed, remains underwhelming. Lau has declared terms final.

• Lifestyle China (2136 HK) disclosed a revised offer from Mr Thomas Lau at HK$0.98 per share, a 7.3% premium to the previous HK$0.913 offer. The offer has been declared final. 
• The bump was unsurprising. Crucially, the shares have traded above the revised offer on 20 of the 25 trading days since the previous offer was announced. 
• The revised offer remains light, and minorities remain unimpressed. The high AGM minority participation rates remain a vote risk. Head for the exit as the shares are trading at terms. 

• Major banks, Hyundai Motor, POSCO Holdings, and companies like HMM, which updated their articles, will likely set dividend record dates pre-AGM in the mid-to-late February window.
• Track backwardation in March futures for mispricings. Companies will likely follow last year’s playbook: AGM in mid-to-late March, record date 3–4 weeks prior, announcement 2 weeks ahead.
• Opportunity lies in the March futures basis spread between February contract and record date announcement. Watch those for potential dividend hikes and futures mispricing ahead.

• After the market close on 16 January, it was reported that Align Partners started to go activist on Coway Co Ltd (021240 KS).
• Align Partners sent a public letter to Coway demanding improvements to shareholder returns and measures to enhance the independence of the board of directors.
• The combination of higher shareholder returns, low valuations, and Align Partners putting further activist pressure are likely to lead to continued outperformance of Coway relative to KOSPI this year. 

• Steep decline in the stock price triggered a wave of speculation and rumours, further fueling the negative sentiment surrounding Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN).
• The rumours ranged from serious allegations of inventory overvaluation and IT raids to concerns about changes in franchisee agreements and even accusations of bribery.
• While Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) has dismissed the overvaluation allegations, its inventory turnover ratio (ITR) has consistently lagged behind the industry leader Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) .

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
• We see up to four M&A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the March 2025 review.
• Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one change for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance. 

• Estée Lauder Companies, a titan in the global cosmetics industry, has recently found itself at the epicenter of takeover and activist speculation.
• Reports have reignited discussions about potential acquisition interest and the involvement of activist investors.
• Betaville’s “uncooked” alert suggested renewed whispers of a takeover, while past rumors linked activist investor Nelson Peltz to Estée Lauder, although significant hurdles persist given the family’s control over the company.

• Toyota Motor Corporation, the world’s largest automaker by production volume, finds itself at a critical juncture in the global automotive industry.
• Despite a commendable first-half operating income of ¥2.464 trillion for fiscal 2025 and a full-year forecast of ¥4.3 trillion, the company’s electrification strategy—or lack thereof—remains a contentious issue.
• While Toyota has mastered the art of hybrid and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, it continues to lag significantly behind competitors like Tesla and BYD in the electric vehicle (EV) space.

• Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)‘s share price rebound over the last two days may have well-reflected the special dividend proposal. It has, however, opened up the room for disappointment. 
• Assuming the same special DPS as last time, it is sitting on a 9% yield. The dividend sustainability is uncertain, and without this, it will be only 4.7% for FY25.
• Earnings have been cut by 32.5% over the last six months on consumption downgrade. This near-term headwind will overshadow its long-term story.  

• We expect TCOM to report C4Q24 revenue 1.8% lower than consensus, mainly due to lukewarm outbound travel. But we see domestic and inbound remained robust heading into CNY. 
• Given strong data flow heading into CNY, we continue to be positive on domestic travel while outbound suffering a further setback…
• We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.

• The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
• The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
• The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.

• LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India IPO. 
• LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Tesla is once again reshaping the automotive and energy landscape with its latest wave of innovations that span from groundbreaking vehicle updates to advances in artificial intelligence and energy solutions.
• The company’s updated Model Y in China, a redesign aimed at maximizing efficiency, represents just one facet of its dynamic transformation.
• Recent Q3 2024 earnings discussions revealed record deliveries, improved vehicle safety metrics, and ambitious plans for scaling autonomous driving technologies and energy storage capabilities.

• Lock up expiry today of 21.2 million shares held by Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN)‘s anchor investors. This could improve free float to 17.5% with rest held by the parent.
• Hyundai India Management is positive about its CY2025 outlook and expects to grow by similar numbers or more in 2025 as it did in 2024. 
• Creta Electric’s launch is scheduled on Jan 17th; Hyundai hopes to replicate the growth and excitement seen with its original Creta model.

• Planet Fitness plans to open new stores over the next 10 years, with a focus on international markets and exploring new retail formats like off-mall locations
• The company aims to open 44 new clubs in 3Q24 and 260 clubs in the next 3 years
• PLNT’s price increase on memberships and aggressive new store development strategy position it for strong comp growth and expansion, capitalizing on the demand for fitness and wellness services.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN) is shifting from mass-market spirits to premium offerings, leveraging IPO funds to reduce debt and boost margins amidst rising alco-beverage demand.
• This pivot could enhance profitability, thanks to stronger pricing power, higher brand recall, and sustained ROCE above capital costs within India’s highly regulated but fast-growing alcoholic beverage industry.
• Despite regulatory hurdles and stretched valuations, ABD’s balance sheet cleanup, premiumization strategy, and dominant mass-market presence suggest considerable long-term potential in India’s expanding alcohol sector.

• Q4 was the most challenging quarter for Upslope since early 2021 (peak of the SPAC/meme stock bubble).
• Longs underperformed and shorts dragged. Month-to-date performance has been similarly challenging (approximately -4% as of this writing).
• In addition to a tough market environment, I made mistakes that made things worse.

• Wayfair, the prominent online furniture retailer, has recently made headlines with its decision to exit the German market and restructure its global operations by cutting approximately 730 jobs.
• The move, aimed at reallocating resources towards more promising growth areas such as physical retail and key international markets, marks a significant strategic pivot amid a sluggish home furnishings sector.
• The German market, which contributed only a low single-digit percentage to the company’s overall revenue, has long posed challenges due to weak macroeconomic conditions and limited brand awareness.

• Health and Happiness’ (H&H) proposed tender offer and new notes issuance will extend its debt maturity profile and alleviate debt repayment pressure in FY 2026.
• In our view, the high tender offer price of 109.8 is to incentivise bondholders to tender and subscribe to the new notes.
• We see fair value for the proposed notes at c. 8%.

• Revenue decreased by 2.2% YoY to JPY42.5bn, while operating profit increased by 14.6% YoY to JPY4.0bn.
• PR and Advertising segment saw a 55.2% YoY increase in operating profit due to high-margin projects and cost reversals.
• Direct Marketing revenue fell 0.5% YoY, with Vitabrid’s Terminaria First sales growing 21.2% YoY in Q3.

• Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) has filed for a listing on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$1.5bn.
• In line with the Midea Group (300 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.
• The stock will not get Fast Entry to any indices but there should be inclusions at subsequent rebalances, especially once the cornerstone investor lock-up expires.

• IndiQube Spaces Ltd (1628202D IN) (ISL) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are ICICI and JM fin.
• IndiQube Spaces Limited (ISL) is a managed workplace solutions provider offering technological workplace solutions.
• According to CBRE Report, ISL is among the leading operators in Bengaluru as of Jun 24. 

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $23 price target and projections for GUESS?
• Inc. after meeting with management at the 2025 ICR Conference.
• We believe management is highly focused on returning Guess?

• RaaS has published a flash comment on 3D spatial data solutions group Pointerra (ASX:3DP) following the announcement that that it has been awarded a US$2.0m (A$3.2m) contract extension by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to the existing programme modelling a range of electric grid resilience investment scenarios by electric utilities.
• We view the contract extension, which brings total spend to date by the DOE to US$3.63m, as important validation of Pointerra3D’s benefit to the US electric utility sector.
• The company says it expects the programme to be completed by 31 December 2025.

• After 17 years of failure to change, Sapporo’s policy change was triggered by the fact that sales in beer business were beginning to recover after the long tunnel of deflation.
• Regulators, weighed down by the growing number of companies with low profitability and declining competitiveness, want to change the situation, even if it means leveraging the power of activist investors.
• Many companies bottomed out due to exiting the deflationary economy, and TSE requests prohibit companies from ignoring investors’ proposals, which makes it easier for companies to change.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating and $30 price target and raising our projections for a.k.a. Brands after the company updated 4Q24 guidance, removed the interim title from CEO Ciaran Long, announced the expansion of Petal & Pup into all Nordstrom doors, and presented at the ICR Conference.
• With the majority of the 4Q upside catalysts flowing into 2025, the company on track to launch their first New York City store in 1H25 and the potential for stabilization in the still significant Australian market, we believe our slightly raised 2025 projections remain conservative, and we reiterate or Buy rating and $30 price target for AKA.

• Revenue increased to JPY224.8bn (+8.4% YoY), with gross profit at JPY58.2bn (+7.9% YoY) and operating profit at JPY10.5bn (+6.2% YoY).
• The company opened 23 drugstores and 15 in-store dispensing pharmacies, while closing two stores, enhancing operational capacity.
• Environmental management initiatives included installing solar panels and starting operations at a new logistics center.

• Through Special Dividend, Ping An has achieved its initial plan at a low price. Ping An ruled out the possibility of privatization, which could be due to the high cost.
• Ping An may hope to further leverage the synergies, increase resource tilt towards PAGD, thereby helping it out of the trough.But we’re not optimistic due to PAGD’s problematic business model.
• The gap between PAGD and JD Health/Alibaba Health will continue to widen. Based on our forecast, we think PAGD is overvalued. Its valuation should be lower than JD Health/Alibaba Health.

• Ryohin Keikaku made a big splash in 2021 when it announced a sales target of ¥3 trillion by 2030, more than a six-fold increase. 
• Following a reshuffling of management, targets have been slashed but growth rates still remain impressive with a near doubling of sales by 2030.
• At home, the push into food is working and at last, overseas markets are getting the attention they deserve. The next Uniqlo?

• Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (Grocery Outlet) finds itself in a period of transition, with recent leadership changes and challenges impacting its performance.
• During the third quarter of fiscal 2024, the company reported net sales growth of 10.4% to $1.11 billion, driven by a mix of new store openings and a modest 1.2% increase in comparable store sales.
• However, the comparable store sales growth was tempered by execution challenges related to recent system transitions, highlighting an operational hurdle that the company aims to overcome.

• Does Hershey’s Trigger Another Chocolate Squeeze? During last week, cocoa prices surged again after Hershey’s reportedly asked the US commodity regulator for permission to buy a huge amount (more than currently allowed) of cocoa through the New York exchange in the midst of high prices and an ongoing cocoa deficit in the market.
• Bloomberg reported that the maker of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups wants to take a position that will allow it to purchase more than 90,000 metric tons of cocoa on ICE Futures US, citing people familiar with the matter.
• This is an order that equates to about 5,000 20-foot containers. 

• Liberty Broadband is a holding company for shares of Charter Communications
• Short-term arbitrage bet on collapse of structure through merger with Charter
• Opportunity to make 10-12% over short time horizon with low probability of negotiations collapsing

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• LFVN pre-announced that its 2QFY25 revenue was ~$67.5 million, up 31%, and much higher than our $51.9 million estimate and consensus of $51.5 million.
• The company also raised its FY25 sales outlook to a range of $235-245 million from $200-210 million.
• Our estimate was $204.8 million, with consensus at $204.3 million. LFVN’s new sales range implies full-year sales growth of 17.4-22.4%.

• Auto1 Group has undergone significant changes, focusing on sustainable unit economics and profitability
• The company offers an opportunity to own a fast-growing used car auction business in Germany with improving margins
• Auto1 Group’s Carvana model in Europe, Autohero, is showing promise with potential for EBITDA profitability, recent successful IPO and stock price rise to 50 EUR indicate strong growth potential in the European auto market.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Sonos, a leader in home audio solutions, faced substantial challenges in fiscal 2024, primarily attributed to ongoing market pressures and a problematic app rollout.
• The company announced $1.52 billion in revenue for the year, aligning with revised expectations but witnessing a decline in key regions, including a notable 17% drop in EMEA due to persistent macroeconomic challenges.
• Their active household base grew to 16.3 million, though additions were slower than previous years, reflecting the broader category downturn and app-related difficulties.

• BRP Inc. presented its fiscal year 2025 third-quarter results, highlighting several key aspects.
• The company achieved a revenue of $2 billion, a normalized EBITDA of $264 million, and a normalized EPS of $1.16, all of which surpassed expectations.
• The results were primarily driven by strategic timing of snowmobile shipments and stringent management of operating expenses.

• Destination XL Group received a non-binding proposal at $3/share from Fund 1 Investments, holding a 21% stake.
• Delek US completed Gravity Water Midstream acquisition for $285m, enhancing DKL’s EBITDA independence and deconsolidation potential.
• Hepsiburada’s controlling stake sale to Kaspi awaits Turkey’s CMB clearance, with shares trading below Kaspi’s offer.

• Bloks Group (1850960D CH) was massively oversubscribed, traded 82% higher on Friday and closed its listing day 40% higher than the IPO price.
• Bloks Group (1850960D CH) now has a full market cap of US$2.7bn. However, lock-ups and cornerstone allocations result in a much lower free float.
• Index inclusions could take place in August and September, but the passive buying is a fraction of the number of shares that will come off lock-up expiry in early July.

• On 10 January, Bloomberg reported that Apollo is considering an equity commitment of JPY1.5 trillion in the Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) MBO. 
• Securing financing is a key challenge for the MBO. Apollo’s involvement suggests a shift to a higher mix of equity vs debt, which should ease concerns about securing debt financing. 
• The article suggests that the MBO valuation could be lower than previously reported. However, 7&i’s underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation (market cap). 

• Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP LN) was transferred on 15 November 2024, to the index’s eligible FCA listing category under the new regime.
• The security needs to pass the liquidity test in both January and February 2025 to be assigned a UK nationality and become eligible for the March 2025 review.
• The security has already passed the liquidity threshold by ~20% in November and December thus it has a solid probability of being added to F100 at the March 2025 review.

• SHEIN’s general counsel frustrated UK lawmakers by refusing to answer certain questions
• It’s the latest in a series of potential obstacles that could derail a planned London IPO
• Add growing concerns over cotton supply chain & new threat from Amazon to existing risks

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, Bloks Group picked up where Mao Geping Cosmetics had left off.
• On the placements front, there were selldowns in Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN) and WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK). We also looked at Shift Up (462870 KS) lockup release.

• Back on the 6th January, Smart Share Global (EM US), the largest provider of mobile device charging services in China, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal.
• A consortium led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO,  collectively holding 63.4% of the voting rights, have made an Offer at US$0.625/share (US$1.25/ADS), a 74.8% premium to last close. 
• Should a definitive agreement be inked, this is done. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China plays, is one of timing. Trading at a 26.6% gross spread.

• The improvement in ROA was not as large as that of ROE, which raises concerns that the improvement in profitability may be running out of steam.
• Improvements in corporate governance in 2024 were even lower than in 2023. The repetitive loss of enthusiasm after danger past is seen in % Independent Directors, Nomination/Compensation Committee, etc.
• The reason why stock valuations little increased despite Foreign Ownership’s 2024 increase might have to do with the fact that improvements in corporate governance have not spread to all companies.

• Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)‘s analysts’ call transcript is worth listening to. The math on the takeover maths well. This is a buy on dip. Again.
• Those who bought into Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)‘s punchy dividend, whether in cash or scrip, the trade has panned out well. 
• KKR extends its Offer for Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP). Separately, Bain said it had destroyed confidential data, as requested, but it’s unclear how and when that data was destroyed.

• Four-Plus years ago, Open House (3288 JP) bought the stake in Pressance Corp (3254 JP) owned by its embattled CEO (who had been arrested for a scandal). 
• Four years ago, Open House launched a partial tender and capital injection to go to ~65%. A takeout was a matter of time.
• That time has come. Today Open House announced a Tender Offer to take Pressance fully-private. This is an easy deal. A done deal. Done too cheap.

• Pressance Corp (3254 JP) announced a tender offer from Open House (3288 JP) at JPY2,390 per share, a 22.1% premium to the last close.
• While the offer is below book value, it represents an all-time high and broadly aligns with the mid-point of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range.  
• The low minimum acceptance condition (2.3 million or 3.25% ownership ratio) suggests a done deal. The offer runs from 14 January to 26 February (30 business days).

• The Walt Disney Company is making significant strides in 2025, positioning itself for substantial growth and market influence through strategic mergers and innovative streaming initiatives.
• Recently, Disney announced a landmark merger between its Hulu + Live TV service and FuboTV, creating the second-largest digital pay-TV provider in North America.
• This move not only consolidates Disney’s presence in the live TV streaming market but also leverages FuboTV’s sports-centric audience to enhance Disney’s already robust content offerings.

• Marriott Vacations Worldwide has delivered mixed results in its third quarter 2024 performance, characterized by strategic initiatives aimed at driving growth and efficiency, amidst ongoing economic challenges.
• The company reported increased contract sales by 5% year-over-year, with a significant portion driven by first-time buyers, and resort occupancy nearing 90%.
• This suggests a strong demand for vacation ownership despite economic pressures faced by consumers.

• Wyndham Hotels & Resorts recently reported their third quarter results for 2024, showcasing both positive progress and areas of potential concern.
• On the positive side, the company displayed robust financial performance, with notable increases in key metrics.
• Adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) saw a 7% and 10% growth, respectively.

• Frontdoor, Inc. reported a strong third quarter performance in 2024, exhibiting improvement over the previous periods.
• A notable achievement was a record gross profit margin of 57%, benefiting significantly from favorable weather and operational enhancements.
• Revenue experienced a modest increase of 3% year-over-year, primarily driven by a surge in demand from the company’s on-demand HVAC program, which contributed positively to their non-warranty sales.

• McCormick & Company provided a mixed set of results in its third-quarter earnings, balancing its performance across different regions with acknowledgments of ongoing challenges.
• Sales for the quarter remained flat in constant currency, indicating no significant changes in pricing but a slight improvement in volume and product mix.
• This outcome includes the effects of a recent divestiture, and while total volume growth was positive, it was a modest increase.

• TopBuild Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 earnings reflect a strategic navigation through a challenging market environment, showcasing both achievements and areas of concern that potential investors should evaluate carefully.
• TopBuild posted a 3.6% increase in sales, reaching $1.37 billion, demonstrating resilience amidst a slower-than expected housing market and fluctuating mortgage rates.
• The company has successfully leveraged acquisitions and pricing strategies across its Installation and Specialty Distribution segments to drive growth, although the organic volume growth remains modest.

• Cable One, Inc. presented mixed results for Q3 2024, with some bright spots amidst ongoing challenges.
• The performance was largely driven by the stabilization of residential Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and growth in their Business Broadband segment, despite a decline in overall revenue, reflective of a challenging operational landscape.
• Cable One’s total revenue for Q3 2024 was $393.6 million, down from $420.3 million a year ago.