Energy & Materials Sector

• During the past two weeks we highlighted that the upside for oil is only minimal and that trading the “war event” may be the rational thing to do.
• So far, this turned out to be the right call.
• Investment banks seem to be a bit more emotional about the topic.

• Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
• Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
• Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

• Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May); 
• Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%). 
• What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

• Resources & Energy Group Limited (ASX:REZ) is a Western Australian (WA) focused gold explorer and producer whose now sole focus is on the East Menzies Gold Project.
• This project hosts a JORC-compliant resource of ~54koz with REZ currently conducting a trial mining and processing operation which is likely to generate revenue to the company over H1 ‘25.
• This trial will be used to ramp-up production through an expanded bulk mining operation and ultimately a proper small-scale mining operation that removes the need for toll treating.

• US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient supplies to cover domestic requirements.
• Expectations of sufficient supply and seasonal slowdown in demand give buyers more leverage to hold back in face of recent volatility of crude oil prices and base oils margins.
• Buyers face challenge of balancing prospect of slowdown in demand in Q3 2025 with risk of weather-related supply disruptions.

• Asia’s base oils prices recover versus gasoil prices as crude oil prices revert to levels in H1 June 2025.
• Recovery in light-grade base oils margins curbs pressure on refiners to adjust output of those supplies.
• Any moves to sustain base oils output at current levels would coincide with completion of most plant-maintenance work in the region.

• Asia’s base oils demand could ease as lower crude oil prices curb prospect of refiners adjusting output or raising prices.
• Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption and rise in surplus supply in coming weeks adds to incentive to hold back and to procure top-up supplies on need-to basis.
• Demand for Group II heavy grades could get support from concern about tighter availability of Group I heavy neutrals because of upcoming plant-maintenance in southeast Asia and uncertainty about stability of flows from Iran.

• Boise Cascade’s recent financial disclosures portray a mixed performance amid prevailing industry and economic challenges.
• The company’s consolidated first-quarter sales reached $1.5 billion, marking a 7% decrease compared to the previous year.
• Net income also witnessed a notable drop to $40.3 million or $1.06 per share, down from $104.1 million or $2.61 per share in the same quarter of 2024.

• Civitas Resources recently reported its first quarter 2025 results, reflecting a blend of strategic initiatives and challenges tied to the volatile economic environment.
• The company, led by CEO Chris Doyle, has taken deliberate steps to adjust its capital expenditures, focusing on maintaining financial flexibility amid a backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and macroeconomic uncertainties.
• These adjustments include reducing capital expenditures by approximately $150 million compared to 2024, thus emphasizing a strategy of capital discipline and controlled reinvestment rates without sustaining 2024 production levels.

• Global Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay at elevated levels relative to feedstock and competing fuel prices.
• Group II heavy-grade prices maintain steep premium to Group I heavy-neutrals prices in Asia and especially in Europe.
• Group II heavy-grade price-strength extends to markets like India, even with recent strength in Group I prices in that market.

• Ian Purdy departing Paladin Energy, with Paul Hamburrow stepping up as new CEO
• Paladin Energy facing challenges and controversies during Purdy’s tenure
• Potential implications and scrutiny surrounding Purdy’s departure and the future of the company under new leadership

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Price edge and stable grades help Indonesia stage a good show  
• US demand strengthens despite Trump tariffs  
• China demand softens, Japan slides as tariffs take effect  

• Zijin has acquired one of Kazakhstan’s largest gold mines, Raygorodok, adding 3.2 Moz in reserves and 193 koz in annual production.
• He asset is highly profitable (USD 202m net profit in 2024) with low costs (USD 796/oz), lifting Zijin’s output by 8% and reserves by 4%.
• 5.9x P/E and 3.3x EV/EBITDA, the deal looks attractively priced and enhances the scale, margins, and IPO narrative for Zijin Gold International.

• Rajshree Polypack (“RPPL”) reported excellent Q4FY25 led by strong growth in injection molding and exports revenue. Exports quarterly revenue grew to INR 20cr vs INR 10cr+ run-rate earlier.
• Injection molding segment has grown well. It clocked INR 15cr+ in revenue in Q4FY25 vs INR 8cr YoY. For FY25, revenue from injection molding more than doubled to INR 40cr+.
• Led by growing mix of high-value segments like injection molding, barrier packaging and exports in Q4FY25, EBITDA margin improved to 13.7% vs 13.5% YoY and 12.5% QoQ.

• For June 2025, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$29bn.
• The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~39%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
• The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi, Greenko Energy
• UST yields rose 3-4 bps across the curve on Friday, after US President Donald Trump cut off trade talks with Canada.
• This unwound yield declines earlier in the day, on the back of weaker than expected personal spending and income data. The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST advanced 3 bps to 3.75% and 4.28%, respectively.

• In this edition: • IMCD | acquires Apus Química in Chili • Shell | Labour prepared to approve BP takeover by Shell • Unilever | takeover sum Dr Squatch probably a lot lower than initially expected • Fugro | awarded four multi-year contracts by Petrobras • InPost | partnership with SPAR supermarkets in Italy • TomTom | to realign its organization with its product-led strategy

• • Zephyr has raised £10.5 mm of new equity at £0.03 per share.
• The proceeds of the raise will fund (1) a £5.4 mm acquisition of 0.6 mmboe 2P and ~400 boe/d net production in the Rocky Mountains and (2) working capital and capex through to first production at its flagship Paradox Basin development.
• • The acquisition includes working interests in a portfolio of over 400 wells, with 21 to be operated by Zephyr.

• Israel Chemicals Ltd. (ICL) reported its first quarter of 2025 financial results, showcasing modest growth amidst challenging global market conditions.
• The company posted sales of $1.767 billion, representing a 2% increase year over year and a 10% rise compared to the previous quarter.
• This performance was underpinned by solid execution of strategic initiatives across its divisions.

• Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported financial results for the first quarter of 2025, which were notably impacted by severe weather and challenging market conditions.
• Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter stood at $5.7 million with 3.8 million tons shipped, figures that reflect the adverse weather impacts on production and transportation.
• The company faced increased costs due to absenteeism, power outages, and weather-related operational disruptions.

• Inventory depletion across the LME and SHFE continued as copper prices breached the 10k USD level to end the week 3.7% higher.  
• The COMEX-LME spread breached $1,000/ton again, leading us to be confident that there will be a further rally in the short term. 
• We see an easy journey to 11,000 USD/ton on a weaker dollar, stronger COMEX premiums, depleted inventory levels, and lower-than-expected global production. 

• Iron ore prices rose 2.3% WoW from oversold levels since our last report, Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce? to $95/ton
• In the short term, prices could reach $100/ton, but persistent medium-term supply overhang from the Simandou project may pressure prices down to $85/ton.
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) for its massive ramp-up from 1.5 to 4.1 million tons. read: Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News 

• Over the last few years, Silvercorp has delivered steady revenue and earnings growth, supported by strong margins and consistent free cash flow.
• It is now expanding beyond China with the development of the El Domo copper-gold project in Ecuador and ramping up investment at Ying and Kuanping.
• Despite this growth visibility and a net cash balance sheet, the stock trades at a meaningful discount to peers across P/E, EV/EBITDA, and FCF multiples.

• Context: The New Hope Corp (NHC AU) vs. Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long New Hope Corp (NHC AU) and short Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) targets a significant return to the statistical mean reversion level.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Humm Group (HUM AU) and VIOL (335890 KS).
• Key updates/news took place onSantos (STO AU), PointsBet (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), SmartPay (SMP AU), Dickson Concepts (113 HK), and SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP).

• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen sharply to 97.33, down over 10% year-to-date and hitting a fresh 1-year low.
• This decline is being driven by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, political uncertainty around central bank independence, and a broader shift in global risk appetite.
• Over the past two years, gold miners, aluminum, copper, and diversified metal stocks have shown the strongest inverse correlation with DXY.

• Iron ore prices weakened due to rising Australian and Brazilian exports and subdued Chinese demand, while the UK prepares tighter steel import restrictions. 
• Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting have secured approvals for a $1.6bn joint initiative in Western Australia, expected to produce 31 million tonnes of iron ore annually.
• Prices are still trading beneath critical moving averages, suggesting ongoing downside momentum, while the MACD below its signal line confirms the prevailing bearish trend.

• Zijin plans to IPO its overseas gold unit, targeting 85t output in 2025; timeline not yet disclosed.
• SOTP values copper business at RMB 592 bn, gold at RMB 190–200 bn, lithium adds RMB 18–28 bn.
• Stock trades ~15–20% below intrinsic value, offering ~25–26% upside even without IPO re-rating.

• Evonik Industries AG, a global leader in specialty chemicals, reported a positive performance in the first quarter of 2025.
• The company achieved a significant year-over-year increase in EBITDA and free cash flow, surpassing the prior year’s figures by over 50%.
• Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, Evonik maintained its full-year guidance, buoyed by strong performance in its Specialty Additives and Nutrition & Care segments.

• For the week ending 20/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.8m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.2m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline stockpiles fell more than expected.
• The EIA reported a 96 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted an 88 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 6.6% above the five-year average but 6.3% below year-ago levels.
• Shell denied reports of merger talks with BP. TD Cowen raised its price target on Exxon to USD 128, citing its technological edge in resource recovery and strategic deal-making capacity.

• Thailand’s rubber export value dips 18.58% MoM in April 2025   
• Staggering 43.6% fall in Thai rubber imports value to China  
• Rubber producers can now use trees as collateral for loans  

• Valaris Ltd.’s first quarter of 2025 financial results indicate robust performance, showcasing both significant operational achievements and strategic initiatives.
• The company’s success in securing over $1 billion in new backlog contracts highlights its capability to align strategically with market opportunities, notably in lucrative regions such as West Africa.
• This aligns with Valaris’s broader commercial strategy that emphasizes contracting high-specification assets on attractive long-term terms, thus ensuring consistent revenue streams critical for sustaining financial health.

• There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
• The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply? 
• And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE’s similar critical assets? 

• Kinterra has now firmed an off-market Offer for at A$0.057/share for copper-play New World Resources (NWC AU). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
• Kinterra’s Bidder’s Statement will be dispatched no later than the 10th July, at which time the Offer will open.  A Target statement is expected 15 days later.
• Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has matchng rights. Expect those rights to be used.  

• The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event.
• Currently, we see no changes for T50 and one change for T100 in September.

• After market close, CAML acquired a total of 253.0 million New World Resources (NWC AU) shares via off-market trades, representing 7.08% of the outstanding shares, at A$0.062 per share.
• Central Asia Metals (CAML LN)’s scheme and takeover offer has increased to A$0.062, a 12.7% premium to CAML’s previous A$0.055 offer and an 8.8% premium to Kinterra’s A$0.057 offer.
• CAML and Kinterra’s stake prevents the other from exercising compulsory acquisition rights. Despite CAML’s offer representing a 121.4% premium to the undisturbed price, there remains headroom for a bidding war. 

• Takasago International (4914 JP) is the number one player in Japan/Asia in the Flavor and Fragrance business.
• The company’s dividend yield also increased sharply from 2.2% in FY24 to 3.8% in FY25, on the back of strong growth in earnings and solid dividend payout (35% in FY25).
• Core customers of the company (Nestlé, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, L’Oréal, Unilever, Kao, and Suntory) are very careful and cautious in terms of what companies they buy these products from.

• A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week

• BHP announced an AUD1.5bn (US$1.0bn) deal with Aurizon for transport logistics for South Australia Copper, which could affect about 5% of EBITDA and reduce costs marginally
• The shares declined over the past month on declining iron ore and coal prices, and while copper has risen on supply side issues, we see risks of a H2/25 drop
• The company looks about fairly valued on an ROE to P/B comparison versus its Australian peers and the current price is almost exactly inline with our DCF valuation 

• In this edition: • Shell | denies WSJ report on exploratory talks with BP • Randstad Holding | CareerBuilder + Monster is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection

• Nanoco’s market cap is £19m, with £15.2m cash as of March 2025, and potential 50% upside from sale.
• The company is pursuing a sale process, reaching out to over 200 targets, with non-binding bids expected.
• Nanoco’s IP portfolio includes over 350 patents, valued at £46m on the balance sheet, with potential litigation proceeds.

• Cheniere Energy’s first quarter 2025 earnings outlined a mix of achievements and challenges for the company, reflecting its position as a leading LNG provider.
• The company reported strong financial performance for the quarter, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA reaching approximately $1.9 billion, distributable cash flow at around $1.3 billion, and net income of $350 million.
• Despite this strong performance, the company faces an evolving market landscape characterized by heightened volatility, geopolitical risks, and shifting global trade dynamics.

• New World Resources (NWC AU) is subject to a bidding war between Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) and Kinterra. CAML’s binding offer is A$0.055 while Kinterra’s non-binding offer is A$0.057. 
• At current terms, a binding Kinterra offer would be superior as the price increase more than offsets the reverse break fees and does not require regulatory approvals.
• Despite Kinterra’s offer representing a 103.6% premium to the undisturbed price, there remains headroom for a bidding war. 

• This week, I spoke to the CFO of Unit Corp and updated my investment case on Unit Corp.

• I think Unit Corp looks very cheap. On a consolidated basis, the stock is trading at ~5.6x FCF.

• This doesn’t sound that cheap for an oil and gas company. But results are depressed.

• Antero Resources’ first-quarter earnings presentation for 2025 reflects a strong operational performance and strategic execution across several key areas.
• The firm has reported significant efficiency gains in drilling and completions, a strengthened hedging position, improvements in natural gas liquids (NGL) pricing, and continued solid financial management.
• On the operational front, Antero Resources has achieved noteworthy drilling and completion efficiencies.

Pan African’s 11 June operational update indicated FY25 output 3.9% below the bottom of the previously guided range. However, the shortfall reflected little more than Nobles and Evander failing to hit what were otherwise relatively aggressive production targets. Production in H225 was still at record levels and almost one-third higher than in H1. Our prior production forecast was at the bottom of the guidance range and we have only had to reduce our FY25 forecast production number by 4.2%. This has been more than offset by outperformance in the gold price. In addition, some output from Nobles and MTR/Mogale, which we had expected to be classified as ‘pre-commercial’, we now expect to be classified as ‘commercial’ and included in PAF’s income statement for FY25. Taken together, we have upgraded our FY25 normalised HEPS forecast quite materially, from 6.79c per share to 8.15c per share (see Exhibit 3), while our overall valuation of the company has also increased, albeit more modestly, owing to the recent strength of the rand against the US dollar.

• Transocean’s first quarter results for 2025 present a mixed picture of financial performance and strategic positioning.
• The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $244 million on contract drilling revenues of $906 million, resulting in an EBITDA margin of approximately 27%.
• This indicates a relatively stable operational milieu, supported by notable contract extensions such as the one-year extension option for the Deepwater Asgard and a $40 million backlog from contract extensions on the Transocean Equinox.

• Export earnings fall 8.16% YoY to US$61.15 million in April 2025  
•  Latex harvesting starts in drier North-Central Province areas  
• Bid to scale up global market share in rubber products from 0.25%

• Management believes SAF is the immediate and most effective solution to decarbonize the aviation industry.
• While technological advancements in aircraft design, hydrogen fuel, and battery technologies offer long-term potential, they are not yet feasible for widespread deployment, especially for long- and mid-range flights.
• The weight and energy density limitations of batteries and the infrastructural demands for hydrogen mean SAF remains the only scalable solution to achieve decarbonization goals at least in the near and medium term. 

• What you need to know: • Scott Lendrum, a veteran within M&A and capital markets, has been appointed CEO of Giga Metals, effective July 2nd, 2025.
• • Former CEO Mark Jarvis becomes President, while outgoing President Martin Vydra will remain as Strategic Advisor, preserving continuity.
• Yesterday after market, Giga Metals (GIGA:TSXV, GIGGF:OTC) announced the appointment of Scott Lendrum as Chief Executive Officer, effective July 2nd, 2025.

• What you need to know: • Omai reported assays from five holes (3,189m), part of the expanded >25,000m 2025 drill program at Wenot.
• • Highlights include 2.67 g/t Au over 21.4m, 2.31 g/t over 24.6m, and 5.47 g/t over 9.7m.
• • 28 holes have been completed YTD (17,109m); results from seven holes remain pending ahead of the Q3 resource update.

• The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
• The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.
• The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.

• Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
• Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
• Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.

• Dyes and pigments player Kiri Industries is set to realise $580mn post-taxes for its 37% stake in Singapore based DyStar Global; ~50% above its current marketcap of $370mn.
• Adjusting for Debt repayment, we estimate that once proceeds have been recieived and pending warrants have been converted, cash in books will stand at INR ~600/share vs CMP: 570
• The company’s core dyes business, its 40% stake in Lonsen Kiri Chemicals India and its copper investments could be worth 300+share taking SOTP to ~900

• After a blockbuster 2022 driven by lithium supercycle highs, Tianqi Lithium saw earnings swing into deep losses in 2024 amid price crashes.
• Looking ahead, it plans to scale lithium chemical capacity to over 140,000 tons/year, deepen integration in China and Southeast Asia, and selectively invest in technologies like DLE.
• While near-term profitability remains uncertain, current EV/EBITDA valuations below 5x suggest the downside may be priced in.

• In our note Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies, we noted a mid-point guidance of 575,000 tons for Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN).
• The company revised this midpoint guidance down substantially to 400,000 tons following the discovery of Seismic activity in the Kakula mines (a 0.7% downward revision of global refined production). 
• The Kamoa-Kakula mine is the 4th largest mine in the world, and the mid-point guidance post 2027 was to ramp it beyond 700,000 tons. 

• Global base oils price differentials fall sharply relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices in June 2025 following surge in crude oil prices.
• Speed and size of fall in base oils margins reflects more the surge in crude oil prices rather than sudden, unexpected change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.
• Lack of any sudden, unexpected change in supply-demand fundamentals could support reversion of base oils margins closer to their higher levels in early-June 2025 before their slump in recent weeks.

• Asia’s base oils price-premium to competing/feedstock prices extends fall to five-month low.
• Lower margins coincide with improving supply in Asia as more plant-maintenance draws to a close.
• Improving supply and seasonal slowdown in demand could curb refiners’ leverage to target higher prices to reverse recent drop in margins.

• WTI futures picked up by 1.2% for the week ending 20/Jun, marking its third straight weekly gain. The uptrend was due to the Israel-Iran conflict.
• The U.S. rig count fell by one to 554. The oil rig count fell by one to 438, while gas rigs dropped by two to 111.
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.87 on 20/Jun compared to 0.89 on 13/Jun. Call OI fell by 8.9% WoW, while put OI dropped by 11.4%.

• As Desert Gold Ventures Inc. enters a new phase of growth, the company’s expansion into Côte d’Ivoire through the acquisition of the Tiegba Project reflects a deliberate and strategic extension of its presence in West Africa.
• Known for its flagship SMSZ Project in Mali, located along the highly prospective Senegal Mali Shear Zone, Desert Gold continues to advance its exploration efforts with a focus on resource growth and near-term production.
• In this interview, CEO Jared Scharf outlines how the Tiegba acquisition supports the company’s long-term vision, details the cost-effective path to drill readiness, and discusses how the company is positioning itself amid sustained strength in gold prices.

• US base oils demand could get support from higher crude oil prices that curb prospect of fall in base oils prices.
• Even so, expectations of ready availability of supplies, combined with seasonal slowdown in lube consumption in coming weeks, likely to incentivize buyers to maintain low stocks.
• Buyers face ongoing challenge of balancing expectations of weak fundamentals with repercussions of higher crude oil prices and risk of weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.

• Holcim will spin off its construction materials and solutions business into a standalone company, to be named Amrize on Friday, June 20th.

• The first day of trading will be Monday, June 23, 2025.

• Holcim plans to spin off Amrize, distributing one Amrize share for each Holcim share held.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 9 ADDs and 7 DELs for ASX 300.
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th September 2025.

• The relationship between Rio Tinto, the Mongolian Government and Entree Resources is in turmoil. Can the new Mongolian PM break the deadlock?
• Despite a binding arbitration ruling in December 2024 in favor of Entree, the government of Mongolia and Rio remain in dispute on how to handle Entree’s ownership position.
• On June 6th, it was announced that Rio will have to change its mine plan for Oyu Tolgoi as there has been no agreement between Rio, Entree and the government.

• Despite the pressure on the regime and escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, oil prices have remained relatively contained, up only $10 since last Tuesday
• The risks of the Strait of Hormuz being closed are considered low due to US presence in the region and historical trends of short-lived oil shocks from conflicts
• Regime changes in oil-producing countries have historically led to significant spikes in oil prices, with supply disruptions lasting up to six months and causing prices to stabilize at levels 30% or higher than pre-conflict levels

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• New World receives an amended deal from CAML for 5.3 cents a share, with a $10 million placement to Camel at the same price.
• Kinterra Capital, who holds a 12% stake in New World, is unhappy with the placement and requests an urgent order to prevent it.
• The placement is conditional on New World not receiving a superior proposal from a third party in the next 14 days, which incentivizes Kinterra to make a takeover bid within that timeframe.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Price discovery and risk management tools in commodities markets through futures contracts
• Discussion with industry leaders at the 2025 Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference in Singapore
• Focus on creating a kilo bar contract and improving price discovery in Asia, with a growing interest in connecting Asia to the world

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Transaction: Holcim completed the spin-off of its North American business, Amrize, on June 23, 2025; shares listed on SIX and NYSE under ticker AMRZ.
• Rationale: Enables Holcim to focus on global sustainable construction, while Amrize targets high-growth U.S. infrastructure and housing markets.
• At a $30B EV, Amrize would list near $54.43/share, implying Holcim should trade at CHF 68.20 post-spin.

• Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) reached extreme levels amid the Iran war; our models flagged a >89% reversal probability at the end of last week. Short-term tactical view: OVERBOUGHT.
• The long-term price may be higher than now, so any pullback may be a good occasion to BUY.
• This insight briefly discuss possible entry points, a couple of scenarios.

•  April NR production plunges 37.3% month-on-month  
•  Exports fall sharply; glove shipments dip 19.2% to US$258.9 mn  
• Imports too decline despite tapering NR production

• It was just a matter of time when Toronto-based PE outfit Kinterra Capital, with a (then) 11.99% stake, made a move on copper miner New World Resources (NWC AU).
• After declaring  it had increased its holding to 19.126%, Kinterra followed with an off-market NBIO at A$0.057/share. Presumably the Offer requires due diligence but the announcement is silent on this.
• Separately, Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) announced after market last Friday, it had bought 178.8mn shares (5% of shares out) at A$0.055/share; and subsequently bumped terms to A$0.055/share. 

• Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
• In this cut, we spotlight building materials corporate actions, gold miners’ benchmark shifts, and semaglutide’s prospects in India and Japan
• Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) H share listing and CaoCao (2643 HK) and FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: Santos Ltd (STO AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Ascentech KK (3565 JP), Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP). 

• Listed in March 2025 via Japan’s largest IPO since SoftBank 2018, JX Advanced Metals has since accelerated recycling, governance restructuring, and potential Toho Titanium consolidation.
• A global leader in high-purity sputtering targets (35–40% share) and thin film materials, it is scaling capacity and deepening foundry partnerships (TSMC, Samsung) to capture long-term semiconductor growth.
• Despite strong positioning, it trades at just ~7x EV/EBITDA FY25E—below peers—offering structural growth at value multiples amid recovering earnings and strategic asset backing.

• Holcim (HOLN SW) spun off its construction materials and solutions business into a standalone company on Friday, June 20th.
• The new company is called Amrize (AMRZ US). 
• The first day of trading will be Monday, June 23, 2025.

• Iron ore continued to slip into negative territory and has now breached the lower end of the range of 95-130 USD/ton, which it has maintained over the last four years. 
• Data from CISA (China Iron and Steel Association) showed a decline in daily steel production YoY for May and June (tracking -4% YoY), after a lacklustre April (flat steel production). 
• The bright spot is that China continues to maintain strong net exports with May numbers at 10.1 million tons (121 million tons annualized), and mill margins are improving. 

• Flynn Gold Limited (ASX:FG1) is a junior gold explorer which holds a portfolio of tenements (20+3 in application) across Tasmania and Western Australia.
• The tenement package is prospective for several commodities, however, exploration efforts have largely focused on gold at the company’s flagship project, Golden Ridge, which is located in the north-east of Tasmania.
• Field work and ongoing drilling at the project over the past two years has resulted in FG1 developing critical mass at the project which is building up towards an inaugural JORC-compliant resource.

• Copper prices on the spot market are set to breach 10,000 USD/ton again as inventory levels tighten on the LME, driven by a rush to ship metal to the US. 
• Current KPIs in China, such as weak steel production (-2-3% YoY est.) and thermal power production (-19% YoY) for May temper our bullishness.  
• We are bullish on copper in the short term, expecting it to break above $10,000 USD easily. However, we will closely monitor China data for potential impacts on the outlook.