Energy &amp; Materials Sector

JFE Holdings rebounded from COVID-era losses to deliver peak earnings in FY22, followed by a gradual normalization through FY25, with stable steel volumes but declining margins amid weak domestic demand.
The group is investing ¥970B (~$6.5B) through FY2030 across decarbonization, product upgrades (e.g., electrical steel, galvanizing), and overseas downstream expansion to sustain competitiveness.
Adjusting for its ₹910B (~¥1.7T) JSW stake, ~30% of EV, JFE trades at just 2.7x EV/EBITDA—deeply discounted vs peers like Nippon Steel and POSCO.

Linde plc: Initiation of Coverage- Positioned to Dominate High-Growth Markets with Disruptive Tech Edge!

Linde, a leading global industrial gases and engineering company, recently reported its first quarter financial results for 2025.
Despite navigating economic headwinds, the company demonstrated resilience, reflecting the robustness of its operating model.
Linde employees managed to deliver an 8% growth in Earnings Per Share (EPS) excluding foreign exchange impacts, while expanding operating margins by 120 basis points to 30.1%.

How Kinder Morgan Is Balancing Debt & Growth with Game-Changing Projects Set to Power the Future!

Kinder Morgan reported a quarter with financial performance mostly in line with expectations, pointing to a strong demand for natural gas, particularly driven by LNG exports and increasingly by power generation needs, which include data centers.
The company is witnessing encouraging demand projections tied to a continued growth in U.S. natural gas consumption, expected to rise significantly by the decade’s end.
Current transport volumes have reflected the robust demand across key sectors such as residential, commercial, and power generation, with the company citing historical demand benchmarks from past decades to illustrate the potential for continued growth.

Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

By Rikki Malik

We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector
A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.
We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries’ basket

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Adriatic Metals, Carta, Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Tourism Holdings

I tally 46 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Santos Ltd (STO AU), Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), and Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), and Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK).

Kinetik Holdings: Its New Partnerships In Infrastructure & Power Generation Projects Can Be A Potential Game Changer!

Kinetik Holdings Inc. has reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, demonstrating a strong performance that exceeded internal expectations.
The company announced an increase in its share repurchase program to $500 million, indicating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
The quarter saw a 7% year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, reaching $250 million, driven by increased processed gas volumes and margin expansion in their Midstream Logistics segment.

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Jun 21

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Kobe Steel Ltd, Iron Ore, Kinross Gold Corp, Nicola Mining, Nutrien , Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc , Sherwin Williams Co, Eni SpA and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Kobelco (5406.T) – Diversified Industrial at Deep Value
[IO Technicals 2025/25] Bearish Momentum Strengthens
Kinross Gold Corporation Unlocks 680,000 Ounces in Bold Expansion Drive Across Key Projects!
NIM: Launching Drill Campaign at New Craigmont Copper Project
Nutrien Seizes Global Crop Boom—Can Potash & Phosphates Fuel A Revenue Surge?
Plains GP Holdings: Resilient Crude Oil Has Become A Critical Factor Driving Growth!
Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down
Cleveland-Cliffs Abandons Weirton Plant—What’s Behind This Bold Pivot?
Sherwin-Williams Is Painting Over Housing Market Woes With Strategy & Scale; Will It Work?
Eni Taps Cyprus for Next Big Gas Play—Is Egypt the Key to Europe’s Energy Future?

Kobelco (5406.T) – Diversified Industrial at Deep Value

Earnings stable over 3 years as machinery and power offset weak steel margins; ROIC gradually improving.
Focus on KOBEMAG®, machinery expansion, and carbon-neutral projects with disciplined capex.
Trades at ~5x P/E due to low ROIC, past governance issues, and misperception as a pure steel cyclical.

[IO Technicals 2025/25] Bearish Momentum Strengthens

By Umang Agrawal

Iron ore prices declined due to weakening demand from China, driven by a slump in its property sector, which has kept iron ore demand for steel subdued.
China’s steel production dropped 6.9% YoY in May amid capacity cuts, with blast furnace utilisation and pig iron output declining, though some furnace restarts may boost production soon.
Prices remain below key moving averages, indicating continued downward pressure, and the MACD below its signal line reinforces the current bearish trend.

Kinross Gold Corporation Unlocks 680,000 Ounces in Bold Expansion Drive Across Key Projects!

Kinross Gold has reported its first-quarter results for 2025, showing a robust performance that follows a strong 2024.
The company produced 512,000 gold equivalent ounces and achieved notable output from its Tasiast and Paracatu mines, which contributed significantly to cash flow.
Strong grades and recoveries supported Tasiast’s production, although a fire led to a mill shutdown in April.

NIM: Launching Drill Campaign at New Craigmont Copper Project

By Atrium Research

What you need to know: • Nicola has officially commenced its 2025 diamond drilling campaign at the New Craigmont Copper Project near Merritt, BC.
• The program includes 4,000–5,000m of drilling across multiple porphyry and skarn-style copper targets, including two new, undrilled zones.
• The campaign builds on 2024 results from the MARB-CAS corridor and follows the discovery of the Draken copper showing in 2023.

Nutrien Seizes Global Crop Boom—Can Potash & Phosphates Fuel A Revenue Surge?

Nutrien presented its first-quarter 2025 results amidst a dynamic market landscape influenced by geopolitical events and trade disruptions.
The results indicate a nuanced performance across its business segments, underscored by both opportunities and challenges.
For investors analyzing Nutrien, these results provide a layered view of current operations and future prospects.

Plains GP Holdings: Resilient Crude Oil Has Become A Critical Factor Driving Growth!

Plains All American Pipeline, LP reported its first-quarter 2025 results with an adjusted EBITDA of $754 million.
This performance was achieved amidst a volatile market environment influenced by ongoing trade tariff uncertainties and dissension among OPEC members, which has affected economic forecasts and commodity pricing.
From a strategic standpoint, Plains All American continues to focus on efficient growth initiatives, with significant attention paid to generating free cash flow and sustaining a flexible balance sheet.

Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down

By Vinod Nedumudy

FY 2024-25 NR production at 875,000 tons, consumption 1.41 mn tons
Compound rubber imports go up by 44.5% to 245,407 tons in FY 24-25
Replanting supported primarily by pineapple farming contractors

Cleveland-Cliffs Abandons Weirton Plant—What’s Behind This Bold Pivot?

Cleveland-Cliffs reported a challenging first quarter of 2025, grappling with lower-than-expected performance metrics, particularly in terms of EBITDA and cash flow.
The company attributed these underwhelming results predominantly to low steel prices lingering from late 2024 into early 2025 and the lagging performance of non-core assets.
The federal tariffs on foreign steel, imposed under Section 232, were highlighted as critical to mitigating unfair competition—a policy supported by the Trump administration that aims to bolster domestic production.

Sherwin-Williams Is Painting Over Housing Market Woes With Strategy & Scale; Will It Work?

Sherwin-Williams has emerged as one of the more resilient players in a housing market mired by high mortgage rates, weak affordability, and sluggish turnover.
Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, the company’s stock has surged nearly 23% over the past 12 months and is outperforming the S&P 500 in 2025.
This performance is backed not by housing strength, but by Sherwin-Williams’ ability to execute on pricing, grow market share, and deliver operational efficiencies amidst volatility.

Eni Taps Cyprus for Next Big Gas Play—Is Egypt the Key to Europe’s Energy Future?

Eni’s recent results and strategic updates reveal both strengths and challenges that should be considered in an investment thesis.
The quarter showcased significant strides in line with the company’s strategic objectives, focused on expanding upstream capabilities and enhancing its transition business.
Positively, Eni reported an increase in net income to EUR 1.4 billion, reflecting a notable 60% rise quarter-on-quarter.

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Jun 20

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: China Rare Earth Holdings, Nippon Steel Corporation, Copper, New World Resources, Amman Mineral Internasional, United States Oil Fund LP, Stora Enso OYJ, Allegheny Technologies, Provaris Energy , SSAB AB and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

China Rare Earth (769 HK)’s Wild Price Movement. An Offer In The Wings?
Nippon Steel (5401 JP) – No Rival, No Discount, Limited Control
Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market
New World Resources (NWC AU): CAML Bumps. Shares To Be Placed. Kinterra Taps Takeover Panel
AMMN.IJ – Smelter Ramp-Up Underway, Elang Optionality in Focus, Valuation Reflects Long-Term Upside
Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity
Stora Enso: Hidden Forest Value Unlock With a Clean Break Catalyst
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI): Aerospace & Defense Sector Growth To Bolster Its Position & Capitalively Grow In Critical Markets!
Riding the energy transition wave
SSAB- Game-Changing Product Mix & Regulatory Edge Propel Long-Term Upside!

China Rare Earth (769 HK)’s Wild Price Movement. An Offer In The Wings?

China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK), a processor and trader of rare earth oxides/metals, is suspended for reasons unknown.
But not before gaining 79% month to date. On huge volume. And that gain is after giving back 23% from a recent high close.
As discussed in Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China recently escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths; although there has been some partial easing.

Nippon Steel (5401 JP) – No Rival, No Discount, Limited Control

Nippon paid full price despite governance restrictions; with no credible rival, rejecting the golden share risked collapsing the deal.
Historical golden share precedents imply 10–20% valuation discounts, yet Nippon accepted late-stage constraints without renegotiation.
Funding mix includes bridge loans, hybrids, and asset sales, but proposed equity issuance near 40% below book risks EPS dilution and undermines capital discipline messaging.

Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market

Chinese copper inventories have dropped to 15-year seasonal lows, with SHFE stockpiles plunging 60% in April — the sharpest decline on record.
This signals intense physical market tightness, driven by strong demand and smelter cutbacks.
The trend is reinforcing bullish sentiment, tightening global balances, and spurring strategic moves across the copper supply chain.

New World Resources (NWC AU): CAML Bumps. Shares To Be Placed. Kinterra Taps Takeover Panel

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has bumped terms for New World Resources (NWC AU) to A$0.053/share, up from A$0.05/share initially. An off-market Offer is in parallel should the Scheme fail.
Separately, NWC announced a A$10mn placement – funded by CAML! – to advance its Antler Project, “conditional on either no competing proposal being received by …. 4 July 2025“.
Toronto-Based PE outfit Kinterra Capital, with a 11.99% stake, has now tapped the Takeovers Panel to declare the placement a frustrating tactic.

AMMN.IJ – Smelter Ramp-Up Underway, Elang Optionality in Focus, Valuation Reflects Long-Term Upside

Q1 2025 results reflected a transitional quarter with lower grades, but FY2025 guidance was maintained.
Ongoing investments in smelter ramp-up, power infrastructure, and long-term plans for Elang underscore AMMN’s integrated growth strategy.
Valuations appear premium vs peers, but are partly justified by structural cost advantages, downstream leverage, and world-class Elang optionality—though single-asset exposure remains a key risk.

Hong Kong Oil Stocks: Surge in Oil Volatility Creates Opportunity

By John Ley

Oil has surged on geopolitical headlines, with a sharp increase in both price and implied volatility.
Implied vols in Hong Kong-listed oil names have lagged sharply behind the move in Oil.
The relative dislocation in volatility opens the door to tactical pair trade and hedging ideas.

Stora Enso: Hidden Forest Value Unlock With a Clean Break Catalyst

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Forest spin-off could unlock €2.2bn in hidden NAV and enhance valuation transparency, but will not reduce debt as shares are distributed directly to shareholders.
Industrial operations are undervalued vs peers, providing cyclical recovery upside.
Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) path simplification addresses conglomerate discount and improves investor transparency.

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (ATI): Aerospace & Defense Sector Growth To Bolster Its Position & Capitalively Grow In Critical Markets!

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

ATI reported robust first-quarter financial results for 2025, showing continued strong momentum.
Revenue grew by 10% year-over-year, reaching approximately $1.14 billion, mainly driven by high demand in aerospace and defense (A&D).
The company’s adjusted EBITDA of $195 million exceeded expectations, with adjusted earnings per share also surpassing the top of guidance.

Riding the energy transition wave

Provaris Energy Ltd (PV1.ASX) represents an unique investment opportunity as a leveraged play on the growing shift to alternative energy and carbon reduction, particularly in Europe, but applicable on a global basis.
The keystone to production and growth is proprietary ‘storage tank’ IP, enabling bigger volumes of compressed hydrogen to transport at lower cost (‘more for less’).
The company holds a material early-mover advantage with strategic partnerships and supply, offtake and shipping agreements expected to become unconditional over the next 12 months into 2026.

SSAB- Game-Changing Product Mix & Regulatory Edge Propel Long-Term Upside!

SSAB, a prominent player in the global steel industry, presented its first-quarter 2025 results, providing investors with a snapshot of its operational and financial landscape.
The company has maintained a commendable safety record, which remains a top priority across its operations.
The quarter’s financial performance delivered an operating result of approximately SEK 1.3 billion, aligning with expectations.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Nippon Steel Corporation, Cameco Corp, Iron Ore, Ppg Industries, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Coterra Energy , United States Oil Fund LP, Boliden AB, W&T Offshore, Centrus Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Nippon Steel (5401) – $14.2B U.S. Steel Bet Targets Growth, Faces U.S. Market Maturity Risks
Cameco (TSX: CCO) – Strong Earnings, Westinghouse Expansion, Long-Term Tailwinds in Nuclear Cycle
[IO Fundamentals 2025/24] Retail Revival Vs. Real Estate Rut: Uneven China Recovery Tempers Outlook
PPG Industries: Will Its Strategic Focus on Organic Growth & Share Gains Be A Potential Game Changer?
Tire Trade At Tipping Point After US Q1 Import Shifts
Coterra Energy: The 7 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond!
Oil Surges, Volatility Explodes: Is the Market Overpricing Risk
Boliden AB: Initiation of Coverage- High-Impact Acquisitions & Financial Firepower Fuel Growth Surge!
W&T Offshore, Inc: Estimate Update
Centrus Energy (LEU): Rebuilding America’s Enrichment Capability with HALEU Tailwinds

Nippon Steel (5401) – $14.2B U.S. Steel Bet Targets Growth, Faces U.S. Market Maturity Risks

Nippon Steel has acquired U.S. Steel for $14.2 billion in cash, adding 23 Mt of crude steel capacity and a full U.S. and EU footprint.
The acquisition marks a bold step toward NS’s “100 MT Vision,” diversifying earnings beyond Japan and strengthening presence in a geopolitically stable market.
U.S. Steel remains heavily BF–based and tied to a structurally flat demand market; long-term steel consumption in the U.S. has declined, making returns dependent on aggressive modernization & macro tailwinds.

Cameco (TSX: CCO) – Strong Earnings, Westinghouse Expansion, Long-Term Tailwinds in Nuclear Cycle

Cameco’s earnings have rebounded strongly with operating leverage from higher uranium prices and conversion margins.
The company is scaling its uranium volumes, upgrading fuel assets, and leveraging its 49% stake in Westinghouse to gain downstream exposure to SMRs and nuclear services.
While valuations appear stretched in the near term, Cameco’s integrated nuclear platform offers attractive long-term optionality, albeit with execution and geopolitical risks.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/24] Retail Revival Vs. Real Estate Rut: Uneven China Recovery Tempers Outlook

By Umang Agrawal

China’s May retail sales surged 6.4% YoY, driven by holiday spending and trade-in programs, though fading property prices may dampen future consumer sentiment.
China’s new home prices fell 3.5% YoY in May, marking a 23-month decline streak, though policy support shows signs of easing the prolonged property downturn.
Iron ore port inventories rose in mid-June as weaker steel margins cut pig iron output, reducing pick-up volumes and softening near-term demand despite steady arrivals.

PPG Industries: Will Its Strategic Focus on Organic Growth & Share Gains Be A Potential Game Changer?

PPG Industries recently released its first-quarter financial results for 2025, which highlighted some key taking points for potential investors.
The company’s reported sales amounted to $3.7 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over year decrease attributed primarily to unfavorable foreign currency translations and business divestitures, such as its Silicas business.
Although these components adversely affected overall sales figures, PPG reported positive organic sales growth, driven by increased sales volumes and selling prices, notably in Asia, with strong performances in nations like China, India, and Vietnam.

Tire Trade At Tipping Point After US Q1 Import Shifts

By Vinod Nedumudy

Truck tire imports from Thailand fell 41% YoY in Jan-Feb 2025
Q1 2025 tire imports rise 3–4% year-on-year
Vietnam, Japan, Cambodia gain as China, Thailand falter

Coterra Energy: The 7 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond!

Coterra Energy’s recent earnings present a mixed picture of the company’s financial and operational standing.
On the positive side, Coterra exceeded its oil production guidance, with natural gas production surpassing expectations.
Additionally, capital expenditures were kept near the low end of projections, reflecting disciplined financial management.

Oil Surges, Volatility Explodes: Is the Market Overpricing Risk

By John Ley

Oil prices and volatility have surged sharply following renewed geopolitical tensions.
Implied volatility has spiked to multi-year extremes on both short- and medium-term horizons.
We examine whether the move in implied volatility is overdone using a range of historical and model-based metrics

Boliden AB: Initiation of Coverage- High-Impact Acquisitions & Financial Firepower Fuel Growth Surge!

Boliden AB’s Q1 2025 results offer a mixed view of the company’s current standing and future prospects.
The highlights for the quarter indicate an operating profit of SEK 2.6 billion, which was impacted by Finnish strikes, resulting in a negative impact of approximately SEK 100 million.
On the balance sheet, free cash flow was noted to be negative SEK 1.9 billion, attributed to a rebuild of working capital that was initially worked down effectively in the previous quarter.

W&T Offshore, Inc: Estimate Update

By Water Tower Research

W&T’s total production is expected to rise in 2H25 with the resumption of output from two fields that had remained shut in since they were acquired in the January 2024 Cox acquisition.
The West Delta 73 and Main Pass 108/109 fields returned to production in late March/early April and are expected to ramp up during 2Q25.
2Q25 total production guidance is 32.7-36.2 Mboe/d, compared with 1Q25 total production of 30.5 Mboe/d. t.

Centrus Energy (LEU): Rebuilding America’s Enrichment Capability with HALEU Tailwinds

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over the last few years, driven by resurgence in SWU demand and U.S. enrichment contracting.
With exclusive U.S. HALEU production, Centrus is positioned to serve next-gen reactors in a market projected to require tens of tons annually by 2030.
While the stock has rerated sharply, valuation remains reasonable given its strategic role, early mover status, and long-duration growth runway.

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Jun 18

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: New World Resources, Boss Energy, Hindustan Zinc, Carnarvon Petroleum, Base Oil, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Capital Emerges With A 12% Stake
Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) – Transitioning to Tier-1 Producer with Strong Quarterly Momentum
HINDZINC – ₹12,000 Cr Smelter Expansion Approved Amid Long-Term Growth Push
Carnarvon Energy UPDATE(CVN)
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 16 June
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/24] Henry Hub Slips on Tepid Demand and Subdued Export Flows
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 16 June

New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Capital Emerges With A 12% Stake

In New World Resources (NWC AU)’s Possible Interloper. I noted NWC’s shares trading through Central Asia Metals (CAML LN)‘s A$0.05/share terms. An opportunistic investor (s) or a third party bidder?
Toronto-Based PE outfit Kinterra Capital has now declared a 11.99% stake, paying upward of A$0.051/share.
New World Resources (NWC AU)is currently in a trading halt due to “a potential material variation, including a proposed increase in Scheme Consideration, to a change of control transaction“.

Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) – Transitioning to Tier-1 Producer with Strong Quarterly Momentum

Boss delivered a robust March 2025 quarter, with Honeymoon generating free cash flow and production ramping sharply.
The company targets ~2.9M lbs annual output by FY27, supported by Alta Mesa and multiple exploration assets.
Valuations remain attractive at ~8× forward P/E, though uranium price volatility and execution risks persist.

HINDZINC – ₹12,000 Cr Smelter Expansion Approved Amid Long-Term Growth Push

By Triple S Special Situations Investing

HZL has approved a ₹12,000 crore investment to set up a 250 KTPA integrated zinc smelter at Debari as part of its 2x capacity expansion plan.
While smelting investments are not inherently value-accretive due to low TCs, they are necessary to process captive ore and minimize logistics costs.
The overall growth outlook remains strong, but the pending mine lease expiries by 2030 pose a material long-term risk.

Carnarvon Energy UPDATE(CVN)

Yes, I know I wrote this one up a year ago, but things have changed to make this a more interesting investment opportunity.
I would recommend holding this in an account where you can sit on it for a few years.
The ultimate IRR will be attractive, but this isn’t a quick flip.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 16 June

Global base oils margins fall as feedstock/competing fuel prices surge.
Sharp fall in base oils margins reflect impact of higher crude/diesel prices rather than any sudden change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.
Fall in base oils margins comes at a time of year when supply-demand fundamentals are already starting to face downward pressure.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/24] Henry Hub Slips on Tepid Demand and Subdued Export Flows

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 13/Jun, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 5.4% on the back of mild near-term demand, softening LNG exports, and rising storage levels.
For the week ending 06/Jun, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 109 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 108 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR inched up by 0.86 on 13/Jun compared to 0.85 on 06/Jun. Call OI increased by 4.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 5.5%.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism

By Suhas Reddy

WTI futures surged by 13% for the week ending 13/Jun on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
The U.S. rig count fell by four to 555. The oil rig count fell by three to 439, while gas rigs inched down by one to 113.
WTI OI PCR grew to 0.89 on 13/Jun compared to 0.83 on 06/Jun. Call OI rose by 5.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 14.5%.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June

US base oils margins fall as crude and heating oil prices surge.
Margins had previously been trending lower slowly.
Steady-to-lower margins coincided with muted domestic demand and improving supply fundamentals following completion of most plant maintenance work.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

US base oils demand could get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices following surge in crude oil prices.
Weakening supply-demand fundamentals previously put pressure on adjustment in base oils prices to reflect that dynamic.
Concern about exposure to lower prices incentivized buyers to limit their procurement plans.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 16 June

US Group III 4cSt base oils price rises in June to highest level in almost nine months.
US Group III 4cSt price rises relative to Group II base oils, relative to feedstock prices and relative to other regions.
US Group III price-strength coincides with tighter global Group III supply-demand fundamentals and growing number of signals reflecting those tighter fundamentals.

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Jun 17

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Adriatic Metals PLC, Santos Ltd, Asia Holdings, NAC Kazatomprom JSC, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Jupiter Mines, Denison Mines, Nexgen Energy, National Energy Services Reuni and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change
Adriatic Metals (ADT AU)/Dundee Metals (DPM CN): A Burgeoning Balkan Play
Santos (STO AU): XRG’s Non-Binding Offer Faces an FIRB Challenge
[Quiddity Index Jun25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 4 In/Out But Too Early to Bet
Kazatomprom: Largest Global Producer Well Positioned for Uranium Rebound
Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Faces Continued Headwinds
Jupiter Mines Takeover Potential, Wanda Hotel Special Dividend, and OCI Methanol Sale Near Completion
Denison Mines (DML CN / DNN US) – Pre-Production Uranium Play with Strong Optionality
NexGen Energy Ltd. (TSX: NXE, NYSE: NXE) – Advancing a World-Class Uranium Asset Toward Production
National Energy Services Reunited Corp: FY25 Revenue Growth Expected to Be Second-Half Weighted

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.

Adriatic Metals (ADT AU)/Dundee Metals (DPM CN): A Burgeoning Balkan Play

By Special Situation Investments

Dual-Listed Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU) has announced a cash/scrip Offer from Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) with an implied Offer price of A$5.56/share, a 47.8% premium to undisturbed.
Dundee is offering 0.1590 new Dundee shares per ADT share, plus 93 pence in cash. Roughly a 35:65 cash/scrip split for the Aussie listed line.
Adriatic is incorporated in the UK so the Offer is being done by a UK Scheme. Irrevocables tally 37.23%. Clean deal.

Santos (STO AU): XRG’s Non-Binding Offer Faces an FIRB Challenge

By Arun George

Santos Ltd (STO AU) has disclosed a “final” non-binding proposal from the XRG consortium at US$5.76 (A$8.89), a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$6.96 (13 June).
The offer is subject to several regulatory approvals. FIRB approval is the primary risk due to a foreign government-controlled entity controlling critical domestic infrastructure assets.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. Retail has a mixed view on the offer, which should not be an issue for the vote.

[Quiddity Index Jun25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 4 In/Out But Too Early to Bet

By Travis Lundy

KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the next semiannual review in December 2025.
We expect up to 4 ADDs and 4 DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the December 2025 index rebal event based on the latest available data.

Kazatomprom: Largest Global Producer Well Positioned for Uranium Rebound

By Graeme Cunningham

U.S. political moves last month backing nuclear power are part of a long-term secular trend of increasing global support for the industry which could drive a uranium rebound
A nearly 40% uranium slump from early 2024 to March 2025 has priced in a significant degree of the industry’s challenges, and a price recovery has started
As the world’s largest producer, Kazatomprom is well positioned for a rise in uranium, it has lagged the recent sector rebound, and trades at a moderate 1.4x P/B ratio

Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Faces Continued Headwinds

By Arusha Das

Physical-to-INE spreads indicate sluggish near-term demand
Rising availability and tepid downstream suggests prices may remain under pressure
April’s import and export data highlights the caution in the market

Jupiter Mines Takeover Potential, Wanda Hotel Special Dividend, and OCI Methanol Sale Near Completion

Jupiter Mines (JMS:AX) potential takeover: JV sale valued Tshipi mine at A$0.315/share, 60% above current trading levels.
OCI N.V. (OCI:AS) nearing methanol business sale completion: US$1.2bn cash, 9.9 million MEOX shares, €8/share net cash position.
Mayne Pharma (MYX:AX) merger dispute: Cosette issued termination notice, MYX denies allegations, court hearing scheduled for September 9.

Denison Mines (DML CN / DNN US) – Pre-Production Uranium Play with Strong Optionality

Denison’s core asset is the Phoenix ISR project within the Wheeler River property, offering high-grade reserves and low projected costs in Canada’s Athabasca Basin.
First production is targeted for 2028, with ramp-up to 6.5M lbs U₃O₈ by 2030, contingent on timely permitting and funding.
While trading at a premium to in-situ reserve value, the stock reflects early-mover ISR potential, but remains exposed to development, financing, and uranium price risks.

NexGen Energy Ltd. (TSX: NXE, NYSE: NXE) – Advancing a World-Class Uranium Asset Toward Production

NexGen is preparing to begin construction of its fully permitted Rook I uranium project, targeting production by late 2027.
Rook I offers 29.2 Mlbs/year output at US$9.98/lb, among the industry’s lowest costs. With 240 Mlbs in reserves and 24-year mine life, it ranks as a top-tier long-duration uranium asset.
Valuation premium reflects low cost, high-grade profile, and uranium demand tailwinds—but hinges on timely permits, financing, and execution.

National Energy Services Reunited Corp: FY25 Revenue Growth Expected to Be Second-Half Weighted

By Water Tower Research

NESR’s revenue growth is expected to gain momentum in 2H25 based on the expectation of seasonal activity increases in core markets and the potential award of additional pressure pumping business in Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is engaged in a tender process for multi-year pressure pumping awards to support the company’s ambition to significantly increase unconventional natural gas production in the Kingdom.
NESR currently has one frac fleet deployed in the field and hopes to be awarded additional business that could build a several-year backlog.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Wanguo International Mining, Santos Ltd, Pilbara Minerals, Paladin Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs
Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m
Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality
Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs

There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The sell flows in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) will partially offset the buying from the passive S&P/ASX 50 Index trackers.

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact

A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) will be deleted from the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) after the close on 20 June.
The two deletions, capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.03% at the rebalance. That leads to a round-trip trade of A$294m.
Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is also a deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index at the same time and there will be more passive selling from those trackers.

Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality

Paladin reported a Q3 FY25 net loss of US$38M, impacted by non-cash impairments and ramp-up costs, though production at Langer Heinrich hit post-restart highs.
Management targets steady-state output of ~6 Mlb by FY27, with uranium demand set to outpace supply driven by new reactor builds and SMR adoption.
At core EV/EBITDA of ~2.8x on US$70/lb uranium, valuations appear undemanding relative to long-life assets and sector-leading leverage to uranium prices.

Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover

Aussie O&G producer Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle
The consortium is offering US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share.
Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.

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Jun 15

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Genesis Minerals, IperionX Limited, Endeavour Mining, Newmont , Harmony Gold Mining, Ovintiv and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes
MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds
Harmony Gold (HAR SJ / HMY US): Strong Results, Copper Diversification, Attractive Valuation
Ovintiv Inc.: An Enhanced Well Performance & Technological Integration in Montney Are Critical Growth Levers!

MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

IperionX Limited (IPX AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) and Patriot Battery Metals (PMT CN) will be deleted.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a round-trip trade of US$48m.
The largest inflows will be in IperionX, Iluka Resources and Albemarle, while the largest outflows will be from Patriot Battery Metals, AMG Critical Materials, Shenghe Resources and Lithium Americas.

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

The MV Global J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebal event.
We expect one-way flow of US$271mm for the June 2025 rebal, which is a bit lower than normal for a June rebal.

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) – Strong Q1, Tier 1 Growth Ahead, Significant Upside if Gold Holds

Recent Results: Newmont delivered a strong Q1 2025 performance with record free cash flow of $1.2 billion, driven by higher gold prices and increased production from Tier 1 assets.
Future Plans: The company plans to ramp up Tier 1 output to ~6.7 Moz by 2028, led by projects like Ahafo North, Tanami Expansion 2, and Cadia block-cave development.
Valuation Upside: If current gold prices around $3,400/oz persist, Newmont’s earnings could double vs. consensus, unlocking over 50% potential upside from current share levels.

Harmony Gold (HAR SJ / HMY US): Strong Results, Copper Diversification, Attractive Valuation

Harmony Gold delivered strong earnings and margin expansion, driven by higher gold prices and improved grades across key underground assets.
The company is expanding into copper via CSA Mine and Eva, aiming to diversify production and enhance long-term cash flows.
Valuations remain attractive, though risks include commodity price volatility, South African exposure, and integration of new international assets.

Ovintiv Inc.: An Enhanced Well Performance & Technological Integration in Montney Are Critical Growth Levers!

Ovintiv’s recent earnings for the first quarter of 2025 presented a landscape of both strengths and challenges facing the company.
The macroeconomic backdrop, characterized by lower oil prices, has impacted expectations significantly.
The company had initially projected about $2.1 billion in free cash flow for the year at $70 WTI and $4 NYMEX gas prices, but has now revised that to $1.5 billion with a more conservative $60 WTI for the remainder of the year.

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Jun 14

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: New World Resources, Crude Oil, Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd, Iron Ore, RHI Magnesita India, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Santacruz Silver Mining and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

New World Resources (NWC AU)’s Possible Interloper
Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran
Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (600547.SS, 1787.HK) – Scaling Production and Enhancing Margins
[IO Technicals 2025/24] Downward Momentum Lingers
RHIM (NSE: RHIM) – Margins Easing, Capex Driving Growth, Integration Overhang Fading
EU Opens Tire Duty Probe Against China, Straining Trade Environs
SCZ: Q1 Financials Beat on Major Cost Improvements

New World Resources (NWC AU)’s Possible Interloper

On the 21st May 2025, copper miner New World Resources (NWC AU) inked a Scheme with Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) at A$0.05/share, a punchy 95.7% premium to NWC’s 30-day VWAP.
Copper plays are definitely in vogue after Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ)‘s recent Offer for MAC Copper (MAC AU), and Bastion Minerals’ tilt for Xanadu Mines (XAM AU).
NWC closed up 4.2% yesterday, and was briefly through terms, again, today (as I type). On decent volume. Opportunistic investor (s) or a third party bidder?

Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran

By Nico Rosti

A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.
We analyze: Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY) , Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY) , Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) , Nikkei 225 Index, Hang Seng Index and NIFTY Index
Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model’s tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate).

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (600547.SS, 1787.HK) – Scaling Production and Enhancing Margins

EBITDA margin is expected to expand to 19% by FY27, with EPS rising from CNY 0.51 to CNY 1.10, supported by operational efficiencies and a favorable gold price environment.
Shandong Gold aims for 70–80 tonnes of self-mined gold by 2027, with FY25–FY27 revenue projected to reach CNY118.8 billion at $3,400/oz gold price, driven by volume growth & higher prices.
Commodity price volatility, geopolitical risks in international ventures (Argentina, Greece), and state ownership influence pose challenges to margins and shareholder value.

[IO Technicals 2025/24] Downward Momentum Lingers

By Umang Agrawal

The U.S. will impose a 55% tariff on Chinese goods; China responds with 10%, as part of a deal addressing trade and fentanyl concerns.
China’s steelmakers face pressure as EV price wars cut margins. Platts to lower iron ore spec to 61% in 2026, prompting SGX contract adjustments.
Prices hold below key moving averages, reflecting downside momentum, while the MACD staying under its signal line supports the ongoing bearish outlook.

RHIM (NSE: RHIM) – Margins Easing, Capex Driving Growth, Integration Overhang Fading

Margin pressures are likely to ease from Q2FY26 as raw material costs normalize and recent price hikes take effect.
The company is executing a Rs150 Cr capex plan focused on automating DOCL plants and localizing high-margin products.
Integration challenges, cost inflation, and inventory issues that weighed on FY24–25 performance appear largely behind now.

EU Opens Tire Duty Probe Against China, Straining Trade Environs

By Vinod Nedumudy

Investigation covers HS codes 40111000 and 40112010
China criticizes EU protectionism, warns of market impact
EU tire makers to benefit but consumers may feel the pinch

SCZ: Q1 Financials Beat on Major Cost Improvements

By Atrium Research

SCZ reported Q1 financial results that beat our estimates due decreased costs and the increased silver price.
Santacruz reported Q1 revenue of $70.3M (+34% YoY) vs. our estimate of $69.9M and adjusted EBITDA of $27.5M (vs. negative numbers in Q1/24) beating our estimate of $14.4M.
Cash costs and AISC came in well below expectations, highlighting the effects of management’s operational improvements over the last year.

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Jun 13

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Jupiter Mines, Crude Oil, Mineros SA, Vedanta Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off
Exxaro’s Strategic Moves: Potential Full Buyout of Jupiter Mines Following JV Acquisition in Manganese Sector
[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook
MSA: Heavily Cash Flowing, Dividend Paying Gold Producer
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off