Energy & Materials Sector

• Vulcan Materials Company reported its first quarter results for 2025, showcasing a robust financial performance reflective of its dual growth strategy focused on organic earnings enhancement and strategic acquisitions.
• The company’s adjusted EBITDA rose by 27% year-over-year with a marginal increase in EBITDA margin of 420 basis points, underscoring effective operational discipline despite varying economic conditions.
• Aggregate shipments slightly decreased by 1% due to adverse weather conditions and a tax-day impact.

• ANTAM’s Q1 2025 EBITDA surged over 250% YoY, supported by strong gold and nickel sales and improved cost efficiencies.
• Plans include new RKEF and HPAL plants in East Halmahera, targeting growth in battery-grade nickel output.
• Despite a recent rally, ANTAM trades at just 7x forward P/E—well below regional peers—while its strong cash balance of IDR 462 per share offers downside support, stock is attractively valued.

• Asia’s base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades.
• Price-strength suggests supply-tightness continues to outweigh weaker-than-expected demand.
• That dynamic could ease as weak demand cushions impact of recent/ongoing plant maintenance, speeds up refiners’ stock-replenishment once plants resume operations.

• A new probe from EU on Chinese tire due to start May 19  
• Lack of clarity on the range of tires under the scope of US auto tariff  
• Lobbying to suspend or delay the implementation of auto tariff 

• Select’s expanding Water Infrastructure platform exposes the company to durable future earnings and cash flow potential underpinned by long-term customer contracts.
• The company provides produced water solutions to meet its customers’ needs throughout the productive lives of their oil and natural gas wells.
• The solutions are a necessity that allow operators to manage the water needs to develop and produce their assets.

• • 1Q25 production in Uzbekistan was 11,179 boe/d (+6% vs. production in 4Q24).
• • Condor held ~C$33 mm in cash at the end of March, supported by a C$10.7 mm positive working capital movement in 1Q25.
• The accounts receivable balance decreased by C$9.4 mm since YE24, demonstrating consistent payments in Uzbekistan.

• US base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/heating oil prices.
• Rising margins in Q2 2025 point to tighter supply-demand fundamentals.
• Cautious demand suggests supply is the key factor driving higher margins.

• We recently attended a virtual analysts tour of Gevo’s North Dakota Low-Carbon Ethanol and Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) facilities.
• The tour of the facilities, which are in Richardton, North Dakota, was led by a team, including Dr. Patrick Gruber, CEO, Alex Torro, VP of Operations and Process Engineering, and several other representatives.
• The recently acquired facilities capture CO2 emitted during the fermentation stage of the ethanol production process and sequester the CO2 underground. 

• US base oils demand likely to stay weaker in face of lower feedstock costs, steady prices and expectations of improvement in supply.
• Supply remains sufficient to cover demand even with heavy round of plant maintenance work in recent weeks.
• Lower crude oil prices and signs of slowdown in industrial activity increase incentive to minimize stocks and procure volumes on a need-to basis.

• Equinor reported a robust financial performance for the first quarter with notable achievements, as well as challenges, particularly concerning their Empire Wind project.
• The company announced an adjusted operating income of $8.6 billion before tax and a net income of $2.6 billion under IFRS.
• Cash flow from operations post-tax was $7.4 billion, with an adjusted earnings per share of $0.66 and $0.97 on GAAP terms.

• Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won. 
• The capital raise will involve 11.483 million new shares, representing 14.8% of current outstanding shares. The expected rights offering price is 95,800 won, which is 15.8% lower than current price. 
• We have a Negative view on POSCO Future M and this capital raise, which is likely to have a negative impact on its shares due to the dilution risk.

• The pricing’s standard—20% discount, 14.82% dilution. First-round price on June 12, final on July 16. The 20% discount could offer a bigger arb window than Samsung SDI or Hanwha Aero.
• Posco Holdings confirmed full participation, taking half of the offering (500B+ KRW). With the ESOP in play, only 40% (400B KRW) remains, limiting potential trading upside despite the 20% discount.
• Future M’s down 8% in after-hours, Holdings 3.5%. The sharp drop follows no deal leaks and sector concerns, suggesting more downside tomorrow, with the price gap key for day-night trading.

• Initial projections hint at 4.93 million ton output in 2025  
• Pre-tariff war Q1 2025 reports robust export returns  
• Highest earnings from exports in 8 years at US$577.1 million in Feb  

• Asia’s base oils demand likely to ease as signs of weaker-than-expected lube consumption incentivize blenders to trim inventory levels.
• Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption starting in a few weeks would coincide with expected completion of wave of plant maintenance work, boosting supply.
• Firm base oils margins, prospect of weaker fundamentals and low crude oil prices add to incentive to procure sufficient volumes just to meet term commitments.

• China Hongqiao has delivered steady ~6 Mt volumes, ~25% EBITDA CAGR, and 15–27% ROCE over the last three years, supported by integration and energy transition gains.
• China Hongqiao is relocating 4 Mt of capacity to Yunnan to tap low-carbon hydropower, advancing its green aluminium transition.
• China Hongqiao offers strong earnings visibility backed by low-cost operations, while trading at attractive valuations relative to peers.

• YTD our absolute return strategy is up 10,2% Will the India/Pakistan Conflict Push Cotton Prices Higher?
• India is an important exporting and producing country of cotton.
• According to the latest USDA data, India is the second-largest cotton producer behind China.

• In order to maintain revenue growth, it’s necessary to continuously increase advertising investment. However, due to fierce market competition, the ROI from advertising is declining, leading to weak profitability.
• The big concern here is once Jihong’s e-commerce business loses its growth momentum, future performance will inevitably enter a downward trend. Jihong lacks a sustainable growth logic for the future.
• Jihong’s valuation could be about RMB3.2-4.3 billion, based on the valuation of cross-border social e-commerce business (P/E of 15-20x) + the valuation of traditional paper packaging business (P/E of 10-12x).  

• FY03/25 results: Revenue JPY57.5bn (+0.5% YoY), operating profit JPY1.6bn (-0.9% YoY), net income JPY1.8bn (+17.7% YoY).
• FY03/26 forecast: Revenue JPY58.0bn (+0.9% YoY), operating profit JPY1.6bn (-1.1% YoY), net income JPY1.3bn (-28.4% YoY).
• Dividend policy update: FY03/26 annual dividend JPY67.0 per share, payout ratio 176.7%, DOE target raised to 4.0%.

• • The staged development of gas discoveries at Tungkal is the primary driver of near-term growth.
• Assuming flat oil production, bringing just two gas discoveries online could enable Criterium to triple output to ~3 mboe/d and triple 2P reserves by early 2027 • The first discovery to be developed, SE MGH (15 bcf 2C resources), is expected to see resource conversion to reserves in 2025.
• In early 3Q25, the existing well—previously tested at 8 mmcf/d—will be re-tested, with initial production of 5-7 mmcf/d anticipated by 1Q26.

• • 1Q25 WI production of 22,402 boe/d was at the high end of expectations.
• The Ebouri well continues to produce at ~1 mbbl/d (gross) on test.
• • Cash flow from operations was US$32.7 mm, while capex of US$58 mm came in below projections.

• Concerns raised in D.C. about potential restrictions on expatriating funds, taxes, and foreign ownership of treasuries
• International investors expressing preference for investing in private assets over U.S. Treasuries
• Potential increase in gold prices due to redirection of foreign assets into gold, with estimates suggesting a 33% boost in quarterly gold demand and historical relationship between demand and prices.

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• Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.
• The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.
• We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers. 

• Smarter Markets podcast discusses outlook for silver in energy transition and investor portfolios with Michael Duranzo, President and CEO at the Silver Institute
• Recent conversation at India Silver Conference focused on silver’s underperformance compared to gold, supply deficit, and opportunities for investment in silver market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• WTI futures rose 4.7% for the week ending 09/May, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, lower U.S. output, and falling crude inventories.
• The U.S. rig count fell by six to 578. The oil rig count fell by five to 474, while gas rigs remained flat at 101.
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.81 on 09/May from 0.84 on 02/May. Call OI rose by 4% WoW, while put OI inched up 1.2%.

• For the week ending 09/May, U.S. natural gas prices rose by 4.6% on the back of lower output, higher LNG exports, and improved demand outlook.
• For the week ending 02/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 104 Bcf, moderately higher than analyst expectations of a 103 Bcf build.
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.92 on 09/May compared to 0.94 on 02/May. Call OI increased by 4% WoW, while put OI grew by 2%.

• Jan-Mar 2025 shipments for Australian miners RIO AU, BHP AU, and FMG AU  were sluggish, registering -9.3%,-4.3%, and 0.4% YoY, respectively, due to inclement weather.
• Vale (VALE US) shipments were comparatively better, up 3.6% YoY to 66.1 mn tons. The big four kept their annual production guidance intact. 
• Positive news came from Vales China clients, as blast furnace utilization passed 90%, and some mills are now making cash profits of 200 RMB/ton. 

• 1Q25 production and net cash at the end of March had been previously announced.
• PetroTal maintains a solid financial position with US$116.6 mm in cash.
• Additionally, the company has secured a term loan with a syndicate of Peruvian banks, with commitments of up to US$65 mm to finance the erosion project at Bretana.

• Deep Industries (DEEPI IN) reported 39.7% YoY revenue growth in Q4 FY25; EBITDA margins stood resilient at 36.1% despite a INR 251 crore exceptional loss due to asset clean-up.
• New offshore contracts (INR 281 crore barge deal), and Oil & Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN) PEC, and a growing INR 2,960 crore order book reinforce the company’s  revenue visibility.
• Despite one-off noise in Q4, Deep’s core operations are intact. FY26 guidance of 25–30% revenue growth looks achievable, backed by execution tailwinds.

As promised, on 5 May, Barton announced the results of its optimised scoping study on its Tunkillia project in South Australia. Relative to its initial scoping study (July 2024), capex was down 8.0%, while unit oxide and sulphide processing costs were 24.4% and 18.0% lower, respectively, as more realistic ore hardnesses were considered for grinding purposes. The life of the operation has been extended from 7.7 to 10 years, with the result that the amount of payable gold produced has increased by 13.1%. In conjunction with a 42.9% increase in the gold price to A$5,000/oz (c US$3,333/oz), these changes (among others) resulted in an increase in pre-tax project NPV7.5 of 176.6% to A$1,416m and an 33.2 percentage point increase in the internal rate of return to 73.2% (A$781m and 48.3% at A$4,000/oz Au, respectively). Using the same inputs, our financial model generates an NPV7.5 within 6% of Barton’s, from which we estimate a post-tax project NPV7.5 of A$895.9m, or A$4.09/share.

• Cumulative Q3 FY06/25 results show revenue of JPY5.4bn, operating profit of JPY771mn, and net income of JPY496mn.
• Water-related business revenue was JPY1.7bn, with segment profit of JPY54mn, impacted by increased personnel expenses.
• Energy-related business revenue reached JPY3.7bn, with segment profit of JPY1.1bn, affected by project delays and personnel costs.

• 5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&A and low-cost execution.
• Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.
• Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x

• The shareholder vote failed, but momentum builds: Despite only 19.35% support, institutional backing signals growing pressure on Rio Tinto’s board to revisit the dual-listed company structure in future.
• Valuation gap widens, thesis strengthens: With RIO Ltd trading at a 23.2% premium over RIO plc, the economic case for unification — and the relative value trade — becomes increasingly compelling.
• Not statistical arbitrage, but event-driven optionality: The long plc / short Ltd setup lacks persistent mean reversion but offers asymmetric upside if governance shifts, tax changes, or structural catalysts force convergence.

• China’s copper and concentrate imports surged 24.4% YoY to 2.92 million tons, while the Yangshan Premium exceeded $100/ton, reaching a one-year high, indicating robust demand and tight supply conditions.
• The easing of US-China trade tensions, with the US expected to reduce tariffs, could potentially support a more bullish market outlook in the near term.
• We provide updates on Lundin Mining (LUN CN )’s latest Q1 results and updates from their call on Vicuna Minerals. 

• Iron ore prices remain around $97/ton, down 0.5% WoW, staying within a long-term range of $95-$130/ton over the past four years, indicating sustained price stability at the lower end.
• With weather conditions improving in Australia, we expect iron ore shipments to start increasing and China to import more than 100 million tons/month.  
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU). The company recently presented at the RIU Resources Round-up Conference in Sydney on 7 May 2025. 

• In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP.
• This comes amid a backdrop of declining oil prices, which have recently hit a four-year low due to increased OPEC+ production and global demand uncertainties.
• Shell, with a market capitalization of approximately £149 billion, is nearly twice the size of BP, whose shares have fallen nearly 30% over the past year, reflecting investor concerns over its strategic direction and financial health.

• Nucor Corporation’s first quarter of 2025 results provide a comprehensive overview of both strategic advancements and challenges faced by the company.
• The details from the conference call highlight several aspects of Nucor’s operational and financial status, guiding an investment thesis that balances growth prospects with market challenges.
• Financially, the company reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $696 million and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.77.

• ONEOK Inc. recently announced its first-quarter 2025 earnings results which were in line with expectations and reaffirmed its 2025 financial guidance and 2026 outlook.
• The earnings report emphasized the performance of its integrated systems and ongoing disciplined growth strategy.
• The company achieved a net income attributable to ONEOK of $636 million or $1.04 per share, with an adjusted EBITDA of $1.78 billion, bolstered by contributions from the Medallion and EnLink acquisitions.

• The Sherwin-Williams Company’s first-quarter 2025 results reflect a complex balance of challenges and progress within a turbulent demand environment.
• The company reported that consolidated sales were within their guided range despite volatile market conditions.
• Notably, the Paint Stores Group saw modest growth, driven by pricing improvements and a favorable product mix, though volume did decrease slightly.

• Korea Zinc (010130 KS)’s chairman Choi Yoon-Beom announced that the company will cancel all 2.04 million treasury shares that the company acquired through a tender offer last year.
• Now the company has finally decided to cancel all of the treasury shares this year, this should have a positive impact on its share price.
• Korea Zinc announced better than expected earnings in 1Q25. Korea Zinc achieved more than 3.5-fold increase in sales in the strategic minerals sector, including antimony, indium, and bismuth in 1Q25.

• For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.
• The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.
• Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Medco Energi
• The US has unveiled a trade agreement with the UK. The US will maintain a 10% blanket tariff on UK imports, while UK duties on US goods will be reduced to 1.8% from 5.1%. It is unclear how the figures are tabulated.
• In addition, tariffs on UK autos will be adjusted such that a 10% tariff will apply to the first 100 k vehicle imports, with any additional vehicles facing a 25% rate.

Wheaton announced record revenue, earnings and operational cash flows in Q125, posting adjusted net EPS that was 10.5% better than our forecast and at the top of the range of analysts’ expectations. The main reason for the outperformance was an 18,616oz (20.1%) oversale of gold relative to production, which drove a US$40.1m positive variance in revenue, partially offset by an US$8.6m negative variance in costs, US$3.6m lower-than-expected interest income and US$2.3m higher tax to result in a US$23.9m positive variance in earnings. As a result, we have upgraded our FY25 adjusted net EPS forecast by 7.5c per share (3.4%). Note that, at current metals prices, our FY26 EPS estimate rises by 73.0% to US$2.63/share.

•  In Q1 2025, Cambodia exports 59,754 tons of rubber, down 13.8% YoY  
• Overall rubber production in Q1 2025, 64,080 tons, down 7.9% YoY  
• Trump tariff, EUDR pose challenge to Cambodian rubber and tire  

Wheaton announced record revenue, earnings and operational cash flows in Q125, posting adjusted net EPS that was 10.5% better than our forecast and at the top of the range of analysts’ expectations. The main reason for the outperformance was an 18,616oz (20.1%) oversale of gold relative to production, which drove a US$40.1m positive variance in revenue, partially offset by an US$8.6m negative variance in costs, US$3.6m lower-than-expected interest income and US$2.3m higher tax to result in a US$23.9m positive variance in earnings. As a result, we have upgraded our FY25 adjusted net EPS forecast by 7.5c per share (3.4%). Note that, at current metals prices, our FY26 EPS estimate rises by 73.0% to US$2.63/share.

• Revenue for FY12/25 was JPY19.4bn, a 9.4% YoY increase, with operating profit rising 22.6% YoY to JPY1.0bn.
• The Ferroalloy business experienced a YoY profit decline, while Functional Materials and Incineration Ash Recycling saw profit growth.
• Nippon Denko forecasts a YoY decrease in revenue and recurring profit for FY12/25, citing manganese ore market downturn.

• Crown Holdings reported a strong first quarter for 2025, outperforming expectations with earnings per share at $1.65, significantly higher than the $0.56 from the prior year.
• On an adjusted basis, EPS reached $1.67, an increase from $1.02 a year ago.
• This robust performance was driven by a 3.7% rise in net sales, attributed to gains in global beverage can volumes and North American food can volumes.

• EBITDA loss of $174M, net loss of $483M, driven by weak auto demand, high costs, and continuing drag from AMNS slab contract; EBITDA/ton fell sharply to –$42.
• Idling six facilities, exiting loss-making operations, $300M cost savings targeted in H2; slab contract expiry to add ~$500M EBITDA annually from 2026.
• Deep value: Trading at 4.4x EV/EBITDA (2026E), 7.1x P/E, 0.55x P/B, and $653 EV/ton of full steelmaking capacity, reflecting deep cyclical pessimism.

• Occidental’s Q1 2025 revenue rose by 13.9% YoY but missed estimates by 0.3%. Its net income rose by 6.7% YoY, and its EPS beat estimates by 12.1%.
• Occidental’s earnings beat was fueled by robust oil and gas segment growth, underpinned by stronger price realisations that offset volume softness and reinforced its upstream momentum.
• Occidental closed USD 1.3 billion in asset sales in Q1 and repaid USD 2.3 billion in debt YTD, underscoring its continued focus on debt reduction.

• Revenue increased 8.3% YoY to JPY64.1bn, with ink sales volume contributing JPY4.0bn and forex JPY500mn.
• Operating profit decreased 1.8% YoY to JPY3.9bn, impacted by cost increases and raw material expenses.
• Segment revenue and operating profit varied, with notable changes in packaging inks, gravure inks, and inkjet inks sales.

• Chinese officials unveiled a broad set of economic support actions, including rate reductions and substantial liquidity infusions, as part of intensified efforts to cushion the economy from U.S. trade tensions. 
• Top U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland from May 9–12 to ease trade tensions, boosting investor sentiment and driving iron ore futures to a near two-week high. 
• China’s factory output contracted in April, with both the official NBS and Caixin PMI reports showing a decline in manufacturing activity amid weakening foreign demand.

• The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
• This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. We expect there will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.
• We expect one-way flows of US$122mm for the June 2025 rebal which translates to a turnover of 2%.

• Large companies can reuse existing DDS for reimported goods  
• Companies can submit due diligence statements annually  
• ANRPC S-G asks firms to join initiatives to empower smallholders  

• Occidental’s Q1 revenue and EPS are projected to rise 14.4% and 23.8% YoY, driven by strong Permian production and improved oil and gas price realisations.
• Occidental’s average realised global oil price rose 1.9% QoQ, while NGL and natural gas prices surged 19% and 63.1%, respectively.
• Occidental’s average index prices for WTI and Brent rose 1.6% and 1.2% QoQ, respectively, while natural gas prices saw a sharp 36.1% increase.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Fosun International, Pakuwon Jati, Adani Green Energy, ReNew Energy
• The US and China are set to commence trade talks in Switzerland this weekend. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will travel to Switzerland later this week to meet with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter, and also meet Chinese officials to discuss economic and trade matters, according to separate announcements by the Treasury Department and Office of the Trade Representative.
• Meanwhile, Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland during May 9-12th, according to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

• We are updating our estimates to reflect lower NYMEX oil price assumptions for FY25 and FY26. OPEC+’s decision to return 411,000 Bo/d in May and 411,000 Bo/d in June.
• The supply adjustments and global economic uncertainty have increased oil price volatility.
• The front-month WTI contract averaged $62.96/bbl in April, down from $75.15/bbl in January 2025. 

• The Duvernay program is expected to deliver light oil-weighted production growth in 2H25 and accelerate the drilling program into 2026 with joint venture (JV) partner Spartan Delta.
• Recent well results have been promising at ~1,100 BOE/d (IP-30 rate), with high liquids and light oil at ~90% of production.
• The diversified production base consists of low- decline assets and delivers stable cash flow that can be reinvested in higher-return Duvernay development, which should strengthen the balance sheet.

• LyondellBasell Industries’ latest financial results and strategic initiatives provide a comprehensive view of the company’s current standing and future trajectory.
• These insights are instrumental for stakeholders assessing the firm’s investment potential, offset by industry uncertainties and strategic challenges.
• On the positive side, LyondellBasell continues to demonstrate strength in its operational capabilities, particularly with a strong emphasis on safety, reflected by a commendably low total recordable incident rate.

• Medco Energi has announced a cash tender offer to repurchase up to all the outstanding USD 242.3 mn MEDCIJ 7.375 ’26s and USD 418.7 mn MEDCIJ 6.375 ’27s.
• It is also concurrently seeking to issue new USD 400 mn 5NC2 notes.
• In our view, the proposed transactions demonstrate Medco’s proactive management of its debt maturity profile.

• Neste Corporation (NESTE-FI) (NTOIY-US) produces and markets renewable fuels and oil products globally and is an enabler of decarbonization across multiple industries.
• Originally founded as a traditional oil refiner in Finland, the company was an early adopter and pioneer in renewable fuels and related solutions, having started commercial production of renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2007- 2011.
• Neste’s “drop-in” fuels can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by up to 80-90% compared with fossil fuel emissions.

• 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia.
• Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy.
• Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations are now back online.

• One local desk misread the KOSPI 200 rules, thinking one screen was enough — but it’s a strict two-step filter, and that led to three wrong delete calls.
• KRX will drop the rebalance list post-close on May 21 or 22, and despite well-telegraphed outcomes, strong next-day price action has followed in past cycles.
• Consider a pre-announcement long/short basket trade, as this is the first rebalance post-short-selling resumption. NXT’s rising market share also creates opportunities in overnight-daytime price spreads.

• Last year in August, Nihon Parkerizing (4095 JP) announced a large buyback – up to 12.0mm shares (9.6%) spending up to ¥15.0bn over the next 11.5mos.
• So far, they have spent ¥9.1bn buying back 7.3mm shares. That’s ¥5.9 left to spend in 3mos.
• It’s worth a look to see how this has evolved and how it might evolve into the end of the buyback. And it’s cheap, though tariff uncertainty exists.

• With the review period complete, there could be 7 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in June.
• The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 1.6-22 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 3.6-16.5 days of ADV.
• Han Kuk Carbon (017960 KS) appeared as a forecast add in the week starting 22 March and the stock is up 38% since then.

• Asia’s base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/gasoil prices.
• Sustained strength of base oils margins points to limited surplus supply even as firm prices incentivize refiners to boost output.
• Limited surplus supply at end-Q1/early-Q2 2025 follows seasonal rise in demand and heavy round of plant maintenance.

• The envisaged merger between EnQuest and Serica is not proceeding at this time.
• Given the drop in Brent since the potential transaction leaked on 7 March, this outcome is unsurprising.
• Given Serica’s prospects as a standalone company, there was no imperative for the company to force a deal.

• Global base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• Outright prices mostly hold firm or rise even in face of ongoing dip in crude oil/diesel prices.
• Contrasting trends point to stronger base oils fundamentals relative to crude/diesel.

• Europe Group III base oils price trends higher vs prices in US and Asia over past two months.
• Europe Group III price trends higher vs domestic Group I price and VGO, holds firm vs domestic Group II price.
• Europe’s firmer Group III price differentials could reflect correction following sustained weakness.

• Nuvoco reported improved volumes, margins, and deleveraging in FY25, with continued focus on cost optimization and operational efficiency.
• The Vadraj Cement acquisition expands capacity to 31 MTPA, diversifying regional exposure and strengthening presence in Gujarat and Maharashtra – west region.
• Valuations are reasonable at ~16x FY27E earnings and ~Rs5,100/ton EV/ton, but upside depends on timely integration and ramp-up of new assets.

• Phillips 66’s first quarter 2025 earnings overview reflects both strategic advancements and current operational challenges faced by the company.
• Mark Lashier, the Chairman and CEO, emphasized the company’s focus on executing its transformational strategy despite a challenging macro-economic environment in the Refining, Renewables, and Chemicals segments.
• The company reported $487 million in earnings but an adjusted loss of $368 million, attributing this to factors such as accelerated depreciation and the impact of significant turnaround activities, which temporarily affected volumes and margins.

• US base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• Rising base oils margins point to supply-demand fundamentals that are firm enough to support the higher price differentials.
• Supply fundamentals likely to be tighter in early Q2 2025 amid heavy round of plant maintenance work in North America.

• Back on the 24th March, Gold Road (GOR AU) rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ) of $2.27/share cash plus GOR’s effective interest in De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
• GFI has now bumped the cash terms to $2.52/share or an all-in price of ~A$3.40/share, a 43% premium to undisturbed. This includes a A$0.35/share fully franked dividend (if paid).
• Conditions include the standard Scheme vote plus FIRB. 7.5% of shares out are supportive. Implementation is expected in October 2025.

• The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
• In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect five changes for the TDIV index and there could be index flows of US$2.5bn one-way due to capping.

• Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has entered a scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ). The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) stake.
• The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. 
• The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.

• Gravita reported steady FY25 results with ~10% EBITDA margins, strong cash generation, and maintained a net cash position despite ongoing capex.
• Business mix is evolving with increasing aluminium recycling, higher Africa contribution, and new verticals like lithium-ion, aiming to double capacity by FY27.
• Valuations appear elevated but are supported by strong ROIC, clear growth visibility, and alignment with global ESG trends.

• February marks 18.7% NR yield growth MoM, 21.3% growth YoY  
• Exports of NR too go up by an impressive 23.7% MoM  
• Malaysian gloves set to upend China’s competition in US market  

• Asia’s base oils demand likely to face more downward pressure as slowing industrial activity in key regional markets start to reflect impact of US tariffs.
• Demand already slowed amid uncertainty about impact of tariffs.
• Slowdown in demand highlights widespread repercussion of tariffs, even for products that are not directly impacted.

• Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);
• Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). 
• What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

• Q1 showed resilient performance; Q2 EBITDA to rise on European spread recovery, healthy orders, and stable North America.
• Over 60% of future capex targets India; Hazira and Visakhapatnam expansions drive sharp volume and margin growth.
• Stock trades at deep 60–70% discount to Indian steelmakers despite growing India focus and structurally stronger EBITDA.

• WTI futures fell 7.5% for the week ending 02/May, weighed by OPEC supply hike and uncertainty over U.S.-China trade negotiations.
• The U.S. rig count fell by three to 584. The oil rig count fell by four to 479, while gas rigs grew by two to 101.
• WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.84 on 02/May from 0.82 on 25/Apr. Call OI rose by 7.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 8.9%.

• The FAO Food Price Index rose to 128.3 points in April 2025, up 1.2 points from March.
• Increases in the cereal, dairy and meat price indices outweighed decreases in those of sugar and vegetable oils.
• Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.