Category

Energy & Materials Sector

Apr 14
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Posco Future M, China Oilfield Services H, Anglo American Platinum , Copper, Iron Ore and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M’s Rights Issue
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 Apr 2025):  Sharp AH Premia Widening
  • Weekly Update (AMS, LION, Tariffs)
  • Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco
  • Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M’s Rights Issue

By Sanghyun Park

  • All three local CRAs are pushing hard — an equity raise isn’t optional, it’s the only shot at keeping the AA- rating intact. Street says it’s not if, it’s when.
  • Late April to mid-May looks like the key window. And start keeping tabs on the flow real tight.
  • Leak channels are still active. FSC’s pointed at IB sales and law firm staff. If we see outsized sell prints—especially from local hedge funds, that’s our cue to act.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 11 Apr 2025):  Sharp AH Premia Widening

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia bounce higher. Spread curve torsion is mild given how much AH is widening again. Two weeks in a row we see a big net move.
  • For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. They are still widening despite really big net SOUTHBOUND buying.
  • I expected the right thing to do was hunker down and be flat H/A risk. Hs underperformed As by 3.7% over two weeks so it’s tough to be flat enough.

Weekly Update (AMS, LION, Tariffs)

By Richard Howe

  • This week the only thing that mattered was tariffs.

  • In my recommendation update section, I will provide some commentary on which recommendations are most impacted by tariffs.

  • On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of increased tariffs on most imported goods, maintaining a base tariff of 10% during this period.

Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco

By Sameer Taneja

  • The introduction of Trump Tariffs has adversely impacted the commodities market’s promising start to the year, except for gold, which has exceeded 3,200 USD/oz.
  • Following a peak of 10,000 USD/ton on March 25, copper prices fell 14% to 8,600 USD/ton before rebounding in the past two trading sessions to 9,150 USD/ton.
  • The dollar’s depreciation, Trump’s flexibility on tariffs, and anticipated acceleration in Chinese stimulus have created a more favorable market environment for copper.

Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

By Sameer Taneja

  • Iron ore prices dropped by 5.5% last week, as the tariff war spooked the market and global recession fears gripped the market.  
  • With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, the market seems slightly less pessimistic about iron ore prices. 
  • With iron ore prices falling below USD 100 per ton, the higher end of the cost curve, we anticipate a slight rebound toward the USD 105-110 per ton range.

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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JX Advanced Metals, James Hardie Industries Plc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Apr 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • The TOPIX Inclusions of Baudroie (4413 JP) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) are expected to take place at the end of April 2025.
  • Separately, the 0.75x TOPIX Liquidity Factor removal event will also take place at the same time. We expect one-way flows of US$514mn for this event.

Last Week in Event SPACE: James Hardie/Azek, China’s Maritime/Shipping Sectors, CK Hutch, HKBN

By David Blennerhassett

  • James Hardie (JHX AU)‘s merger with Azek (AZEK US) isn’t inherently a “bad” deal; but arguably risky and expensive. Yet JHX is down a massive 23% on the news.
  • The Biden Administration’s USTR Report (bad data/analytics) was a disaster. But true to form, if it allows the USG to stomp on China, Trump is going to take it.
  • The irony is that CKH (1 HK)‘s Panama-port sale was probably prompted, at least in part, by a desire to get out of a situation which was becoming increasingly political.

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CRH , James Hardie Industries Plc, Jindal Steel & Power, Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited, Rio2, Glencore , Arq and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible
  • James Hardie (JHX AU)/Azek (AZEK US) Merger: Risky, Expensive, And Poor Governance
  • The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan
  • Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • RIO: Highlights from Our Site Visit to the Fenix Gold Project
  • Glencore: Initiation of Coverage
  • ARQ: Phase 1 GAC Ramping Up in 2025; Domestic Supply Chain Largely Immune from Tariff Impact

[Quiddity Index Apr25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Lots of Intraview Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in June 2025. BUT… there are multiple live spin-off and M&A events likely to trigger intra-review index changes. Three are likely!

James Hardie (JHX AU)/Azek (AZEK US) Merger: Risky, Expensive, And Poor Governance

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 24th March, building materials outfit James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX AU) announced a cash/scrip merger with decking manufacturer Azek (AZEK US).
  • JHX is offering 1.034 new JHX shares plus US$26.45/share in cash for each Azek share, or an implied $56.88 all-in price (at the time), a punchy 37.4% premium to undisturbed. 
  • Apart from pushback on pricing for Azek, JHX shareholders have voiced opposition over the ASX granting a waiver, allowing the merger to proceed without a vote from JHX shareholders

The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months
  • The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.
  • With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited (JIRI) is looking to raise about US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC.
  • It’s a pre-revenue tungsten mining company with the world’s largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of mineral resources of tungsten trioxide (WO3) in 2024, as per Frost & Sullivan (F&S).
  • Mining operation is conducted by a local subsidiary while JIRI is responsible for the processing operation and sales of the product to its customers.

RIO: Highlights from Our Site Visit to the Fenix Gold Project

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • We visited Rio2’s Fenix Gold Project near Copiapó, Chile on March 25th.
  • • The visit was valuable in better understanding the layout of the project, progress on construction, the scale of the asset, and team behind it.
  • • As a reminder, The Fenix Gold Project is the largest fully permitted and financed gold heap leach project in the Americas.

Glencore: Initiation of Coverage

By Baptista Research

  • Glencore PLC’s 2024 financial results reflect a robust operational year, with the company reporting an adjusted EBITDA of $14.4 billion, indicating strong performance across its industrial and marketing segments.
  • The industrial segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $10.6 billion, primarily driven by a healthy metals business despite challenging conditions in the metallurgical market.
  • The recent integration of the EVR coal business contributed significantly, adding $1 billion to EBITDA in the latter half of the year.

ARQ: Phase 1 GAC Ramping Up in 2025; Domestic Supply Chain Largely Immune from Tariff Impact

By Water Tower Research

  • Following ARQ’s 4Q24 results, we are fine-tuning our estimates and introducing quarterly forecasts.
  • ARQ is an environmental tech company producing activated carbon (AC) products that reduce or reverse environmental liabilities.
  • Among many applications, AC products remove “forever chemicals” from public drinking water, remediate contaminated soil and ground water, and remove impurities from renewable natural gas. 

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Apr 11
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Posco Future M, De Grey Mining, Gold Road Resources, Copper, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Chord Energy , Noble Corp Plc, Valeura Energy Inc, Pbf Energy Inc Class A, Arrow Exploration Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance
  • Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations
  • Gold Road (GOR AU)’s U-Turn On Gruyere’s Underground Mine Estimates
  • The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)
  • Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume
  • Chord Energy Corporation: Leveraging Simul-Frac Technology To Up Their Game!
  • Noble Corporation: An Insight Into Market Demand, Growth Prospects & Key Growth Drivers!
  • Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Lower oil prices could generate acquisition opportunities
  • PBF Energy’s Renewable Diesel Expansion & Strategic Ventures Can Truly Catalyze Its Growth!
  • Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Stable Production, 10% Cash Increase

Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • The resumption of short selling in Korea came at a good time for investors, giving them some additional tools to manage market volatility.
  • Short interest has increased from 0.17% to 0.23% of market cap for the KOSPI market and from 0.46% to 0.63% for the KOSDAR market.
  • The KOSPI/KOSDAQ ratio has reverted a bit on profit taking, and the forecast index deletions have recovered a bit but should continue to see increase short interest.

Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
  • This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. There will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.
  • We expect one-way flows of US$81mm for June 2025 which translates to a turnover of 1.4%.

Gold Road (GOR AU)’s U-Turn On Gruyere’s Underground Mine Estimates

By David Blennerhassett

  • After rejecting  Gold Fields (GFI SJ)‘s Offer last month, calling terms “low ball and opportunistic”, Gold Road (GOR AU) has done a bang-up job how NOT to underpin that position.
  • After correcting minor information (on the 4th April) to an Australian Roadshow Investor Presentation, GOR has now retracted details of the underground mining potential at the Gruyere mine.
  • But don’t expect any new developments in this transaction until after De Grey Mining (DEG AU)‘s Scheme vote on the 16th April.

The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)

By Andreas Steno

  • Greetings from Copenhagen.
  • We were just about to wrap up this week’s edition of The Drill when the news hit: tariffs are officially on pause for all trade partners except China.
  • So that initial line—“risk sentiment was improving a tad this afternoon as markets likely see the worst headlines and data behind us”—can now be upgraded to markets partying like there’s no tomorrow.

Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Components crossing US–Mexico–Canada corridor face disruption  
  •  Reshoring production to US would involve multi-year lead times  
  • USTMA expects U.S. tire shipments of 340.4 million units in 2025

Chord Energy Corporation: Leveraging Simul-Frac Technology To Up Their Game!

By Baptista Research

  • Chord Energy reported a transformational year in 2024, significantly strengthened by its strategic combination with Enerplus.
  • This merger, completed in May 2024, positioned the company as a leading entity in the Williston Basin.
  • The integration was marked by operational and corporate synergies, enhancing Chord Energy’s scale and efficiency.

Noble Corporation: An Insight Into Market Demand, Growth Prospects & Key Growth Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • Noble Corporation’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call provided a comprehensive overview of its operational and financial performance while highlighting key strategic initiatives and market outlook.
  • The company recently completed the acquisition of Diamond Offshore, enhancing its positioning in the deepwater drilling market.
  • This integration is progressing well, with $50 million of the targeted $100 million synergies already realized, reflecting operational efficiencies.

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Lower oil prices could generate acquisition opportunities

By Auctus Advisors

  • • 1Q25 production averaged 23.9 mboe/d, which is in line with previous indications.
  • This included a planned seven-day annual maintenance shutdown at the Nong Yao field near the end of the quarter.
  • Production resumed on 1 April.

PBF Energy’s Renewable Diesel Expansion & Strategic Ventures Can Truly Catalyze Its Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • PBF Energy’s most recent commentary on its financial performance and operational highlights underscores a mix of operational resilience and external challenges.
  • A notable incident was the fire at the Martinez refinery in early February, which has posed operational disruptions.
  • While the company is in the early stages of investigating and recovering from this event, it emphasized appreciation for the quick response from first responders and reiterated its commitment to maintaining a strong relationship with local and state authorities.

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Stable Production, 10% Cash Increase

By Auctus Advisors

  • Net production is currently exceeding 4.5 mboe/d, consistent with January levels.
  • The CN HZ10 well, located in the northern area of the CN field, commenced production on 31 March, delivering 1,183 bbl/d of oil (591 bbl/d net to Arrow) with a 21% water cut from the Ubaque reservoir.
  • The well is in the process of cleaning up, with the water cut gradually decreasing.

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Apr 10
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Jinhong Gas , SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Verallia, Amerigo Resources , Southern Energy Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in June
  • EUDR May Be Subject To Revision
  • BWGI’s Tender Offer for Verallia
  • ARG: Slight Miss on Q1 Production; Copper Price Supports FCF
  • Southern Energy Corp. (SOUC LN/SOU CN): First recompletion expected by the end of 2Q25

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 1 constituent change for the STAR Chip Index at the June rebalance. There will also be a few capping changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 2.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY 1.04bn (US$141m). Passives need to trade between 0.65-1.65x ADV in the potential changes.
  • Jinhong Gas (688106 CH) is also a potential delete from the STAR100 Index and that will lead to increased passive selling in the stock.

EUDR May Be Subject To Revision

By Farah Miller

  • Importers labeling rubber used as synthetic or compounded to avoid due diligence
  • Automated checks may miss incorrect documentation
  • Ongoing review for the list of products which need documentation before entering EU 

BWGI’s Tender Offer for Verallia

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • BWGI proposes a voluntary tender offer at €30 per share (cum dividend), aiming for majority control without delisting, supported by the Moreira Salles family’s substantial financial capacity and credibility.
  • BWGI’s offer, backed by a $26 billion family office, presents a credible liquidity event; however, valuation and DCF analysis suggest room for a higher bid or competing interest.
  • Market volatility may increase investor preference for deal certainty, potentially improving acceptance of BWGI’s offer despite its modest premium over Verallia’s recent trading levels and long-term valuation benchmarks.

ARG: Slight Miss on Q1 Production; Copper Price Supports FCF

By Atrium Research

  • Quarterly copper production was 13.2Mlbs, below our estimate of 14.9Mlbs due to the scheduled annual plant maintenance.
  • Cash costs came in at $2.22/lb, above our estimate of $1.88/lb.
  • Copper prices rose substantially in Q1, followed by a sharp drop in recent days due to U.S. tariffs, despite this, copper remains high at >$4.00/lb.

Southern Energy Corp. (SOUC LN/SOU CN): First recompletion expected by the end of 2Q25

By Auctus Advisors

  • Southern has raised US$5 mm in new equity at a price of 3.8p per share (C$0.07 per share).
  • Investors participating in the transaction will also receive a full warrant for each new share, with an exercise price of 4.8p per share (C$0.09 per share).
  • US$3.1 mm of outstanding convertible debenture will be converted into equity on the same terms.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Active Energy Group, Base Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 31/03/2025
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 31/03/2025

By Hybridan

  • The international biomass based renewable energy business, today announced that its European patent application has been allowed under a Patent Application for its innovative “Process for Beneficiating and Cleaning Biomass”.
  • This forthcoming Patent strengthens the intellectual property portfolio underpinning the Company’s CoalSwitch technology, a next-generation solution for producing sustainable biomass fuel.
  • The newly allowed patent application will grant protection in several EU countries reinforcing Active Energy’s innovation in the global biomass industry.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices face growing upward pressure versus feedstock/diesel prices following slump in crude oil prices.
  • Firming base oils premium points to tightening supply and rising demand, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.
  • Recent slump in crude oil prices reflects concern about slowdown in global economic activity and subsequent drop in demand.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils prices resume rise versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
  • Rising margins point to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q2 2025.
  • That dynamic could change in coming weeks if economic growth slows, compounding typical seasonal dip in demand from end of second quarter.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils prices rise versus crude oil/competing fuel prices.
  • Base oils margins rise because of slump in crude oil prices.
  • Base oils premium to VGO previously stayed in relatively narrow range even with round of plant maintenance work and at time of year when demand faces seasonal boost.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand could weaken in face of widespread market volatility and slumping crude prices.
  • Any slowdown in demand would be at a time of year when consumption typically gets a seasonal boost.
  • More muted demand would cushion impact of round of base oils plant maintenance work.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group II base oils export price-discount to CFR India prices widens further through March 2025 even ahead of imposition of US tariffs and slump in crude oil prices.
  • US Group I brightstock export price flips to rare discount to CFR India price in recent weeks.
  • Ongoing weakness of US export prices points to weaker-than-usual domestic demand.

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Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: De Grey Mining, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Crude Oil, Jindal Stainless, Iron Ore, Base Oil, Natural Gas, Reliance Industries, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs
  • Tariff Doesn’t List Tire But Throws US Auto Industry Into A Tizzy
  • Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare
  • Jindal Stainless: Near-Term Headwinds Appear to Be Well Factored
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/14] Henry Hub Retreats Amid Tariff Shock and Warmer Weather Outlook
  • Reliance’s Campa Cola Comeback: Disrupting India’s Soft Drink Market
  • Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/14] WTI Dropped to Four-Year Low on Trump’s Tariffs

Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs

By David Blennerhassett

  • Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team’s Weird Tariff Math – Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
  • From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
  • Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.  

Tariff Doesn’t List Tire But Throws US Auto Industry Into A Tizzy

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • White House said on March 26 that the 25% tariff would be applied to imported passenger vehicles
  • Annexe II, which refers to tariff exclusions, mentions rubber
  • Stellantis halts its Canada, Mexico production

Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare

By The Commodity Report

  • *YTD our absolute return strategy is up 7,5% Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare In his mission to re-shore critical industries, raise revenue for the U.S. and narrow the deficit, Trump rolled out aggressive tariffs on virtually all countries (except Russia, Cuba and North Korea).
  • The new 10% tariff baseline is roughly triple the average US tariff rate before Trump reclaimed power in January and the calculation behind each tariff rates seems insane.
  • “We will charge them approximately half of what they are and have been charging us,” Trump said of the reciprocal tariffs.

Jindal Stainless: Near-Term Headwinds Appear to Be Well Factored

By Rahul Jain

  • Management has lowered its volume and margin guidance over the last few quarters even as they have gradually lowered their export share to less than 10%.
  • Despite a 40% drop from its high over the last few months JDSL trades at premium to its historic valuations. Significant investments in Indonesia to raise capacity is positive
  • A 20-25% increase in volumes (through Indonesia investments) over the next 2-3 years coupled with 20% ROIC and Debt <1X EBITDA implies that premium valuations could sustain.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

By Pranay Yadav

  • SGX Iron Ore Futures fell $2.78/ton WoW, closing at $99.45/ton on April 4 after breaching key support levels and trading in a wider $5.95/ton range.
  • U.S.–China tariff escalation led to a MACD-confirmed downtrend and prices plunging below 100- and 200-day DMAs, signaling heightened bearish momentum.
  • Despite sharp price drops, implied volatility declined across all deltas reaching new lows for the year, with skew falling to +0.5%. 

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could fall in face of slumping crude oil prices and concern about slower-than-expected economic growth in the region.
  • Concern about weaker demand cuts fundamentals-related support that could cushion against impact of falling crude oil prices.
  • Concern about more muted demand and expected improvement in base oils supply in coming weeks would contrast with increasingly high base oils margins caused by lower crude oil prices.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/14] Henry Hub Retreats Amid Tariff Shock and Warmer Weather Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 04/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 5.6% on the back of Trump’s tariffs and warmer weather forecasts.
  • U.S. natural gas futures continued to decline on 07/April (Mon), hovering around a seven-week low and extending last week’s 5.6% loss.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.97 on 04/Apr from 0.98 on 28/Mar. Call OI increased by 5.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 5%.

Reliance’s Campa Cola Comeback: Disrupting India’s Soft Drink Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Reliance Industries (RIL IN) has relaunched Campa Cola with a disruptive INR 10 price tag, targeting Bharat through regional branding, aggressive retail margins, and deep distribution.
  • Campa’s revival is shaking up India’s INR 50,000 crore soft drink market, challenging Pepsi and Coke with rapid share gains and frenzied rural demand.
  • This is not nostalgia, it’s Ambani’s Jio-style FMCG disruption. Expect more brand revivals, deeper pricing wars, and a new cola war driven from the grassroots.

Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Medco Energi’s performance remained robust in FY 2024, with the company reporting stable earnings but improved cash flows.
  • FCF was positive and net debt declined, supported by the disposal of Medco’s Vietnamese assets.
  • Consolidated Net Debt/EBITDA was healthy at 2.3x.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/14] WTI Dropped to Four-Year Low on Trump’s Tariffs

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures fell 10.6% for the week ending 04/Apr, driven primarily by President Trump’s tariff announcement, which was broader and more severe than markets had anticipated.
  • The U.S. rig count fell by two to 590. The oil rig count grew by five to 489, while gas rigs dropped by seven to 96.
  • WTI OI PCR fell to 0.88 on 04/Apr compared to 0.91 on 28/Mar. Call OI increased by 10.8% WoW, while put OI grew by 7.2%.

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Iron Ore and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

By Sameer Taneja

  • Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the investment case for Fenix Resources (FEX AU) at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  
  • The company’s imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.
  • The company briefly touched on its M&A opportunity with Coziron Resources (CZR AU), which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. 

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Apr 05
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, JSW Steel Ltd, Shell , Crude Oil, Newmarket Corp, Sm Energy Co, Targa Resources, Amerigo Resources , Valvoline , Boise Cascade Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Cambodia Reaps Impressive Rubber Export Returns In 2025 Start
  • JSW Steel: Low Cost Capacity Expansion Underpin Premium Valuations
  • Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns
  • [ETP 2025/14] WTI Plummets on Tariffs and OPEC Output Hike, Henry Hub Supported by Cooler Weather
  • NewMarket Corporation Struggles With Slipping Sales Despite Profit Surge – What’s Behind The Petroleum Additives Underperformance?
  • SM Energy: Can It Capitalize On The Exploration and Development Opportunities In The Uinta Basin?
  • Targa Resources: An Insight Into Its Permian Basin Expansion & Major Growth Catalysts!
  • ARG: Highlights from Our MVC Site Visit
  • Valvoline Is Winning Big Through High-Margin Premium Products & Rapid Customer Growth – But How Long Will This Last?
  • Boise Cascade Is Revamping Oakdale—Could This Bold Move Help Improve Margins?

Cambodia Reaps Impressive Rubber Export Returns In 2025 Start

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Jan-Feb 2025 returns from rubber exports up 24% year-on-year  
  • Cambodia focusing on high-yielding CRRI 12 and CRRI 19 clones  
  • ANRPC economist says strengthening processing sector key

JSW Steel: Low Cost Capacity Expansion Underpin Premium Valuations

By Rahul Jain

  • JSW Steel has grown its domestic steelmaking capacity at CAGR of 14% over the last 2 decades (2x industry) and at 25% lower costs
  • Gradual capacity ramp-up at recently completed expansion at Vijayanagar (5m) and actively pursuing 10-15mt of new capacity additions over the next 3-5 years
  • Valuations: JSW Steel trades at premium to its 5yr average EV/EBITDA likely due to a) impending imposition of a 12% safeguard duty b) superior capital allocation etc.

Shell’s Next Phase: Leaner Operations, Stronger Cash Flow, and Higher Shareholder Returns

By Suhas Reddy

  • Shell reaffirmed its strategy, prioritizing efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, unlike BP’s strategic shift back to hydrocarbons after an aggressive renewables push.
  • As the world’s largest LNG trader, Shell plans 4%-5% annual LNG sales growth, capitalizing on rising global demand while maintaining financial discipline and emissions targets
  • Shell aims to save USD 5 – 7 billion by 2028, cut capex to USD 20 – 22 billion, and streamline operations to enhance free cash flow and investor returns.

[ETP 2025/14] WTI Plummets on Tariffs and OPEC Output Hike, Henry Hub Supported by Cooler Weather

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.2m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.2k fall), and gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected.
  • US natural gas inventories rose by 29 Bcf for the week ending 28/Mar, exceeding analyst expectations of a 27 Bcf build. Inventories are 4.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Chevron sold its Texas gas assets for USD 525 million, while Exxon, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Aramco had their price targets cut.

NewMarket Corporation Struggles With Slipping Sales Despite Profit Surge – What’s Behind The Petroleum Additives Underperformance?

By Baptista Research

  • NewMarket Corporation has demonstrated notable financial performance in the fiscal year 2024, showing an increase in net income to $462 million or $48.22 per share, up from $389 million or $40.44 per share in the previous year.
  • The fourth quarter alone saw net income rise from $80 million to $111 million.
  • This growth can be attributed to various strategic decisions and operational efficiencies, although the company faced challenges related to sales and the broader inflationary environment.

SM Energy: Can It Capitalize On The Exploration and Development Opportunities In The Uinta Basin?

By Baptista Research

  • SM Energy Company’s latest earnings call highlights several critical aspects related to its 2024 financial performance and plans for 2025.
  • The company presented both opportunities and challenges that its investors might consider for devising an informed investment thesis.
  • On the positive side, SM Energy forecasts a 40% increase in free cash flow for 2025, supported by a 30% growth in oil production.

Targa Resources: An Insight Into Its Permian Basin Expansion & Major Growth Catalysts!

By Baptista Research

  • Targa Resources Corp has reported strong financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the full year, showcasing a period of significant growth and robust operational metrics.
  • The company achieved record volumes, particularly from its assets in the Permian Basin, which drove the record levels of NGL transportation, fractionation, and export volumes, exceeding initial forecasts.
  • This robust performance resulted in a 17% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, reaching $4.1 billion, and an adjusted free cash flow generation that facilitated a 50% increase in common dividends and substantial share repurchases.

ARG: Highlights from Our MVC Site Visit

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • We visited Amerigo’s MVC processing facility in Rancagua, Chile and were highly impressed with the site and plant, as well as the scale of the operation.
  • • The copper price increased substantially after Q4, positioning the Company for even stronger cash flow in Q1/25.
  • • For more information on ARG, you can find all our research on our website here and an interview we hosted with CEO Aurora Davidson, here.

Valvoline Is Winning Big Through High-Margin Premium Products & Rapid Customer Growth – But How Long Will This Last?

By Baptista Research

  • Valvoline Inc. reported results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 that were substantially in line with internal expectations, driven by a balanced mix of transaction and ticket growth.
  • Net sales for the quarter reached $414 million, representing an 11% increase year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $103 million.
  • Systemwide same-store sales grew 8%, supported by non-oil change revenue service penetration and improved customer retention.

Boise Cascade Is Revamping Oakdale—Could This Bold Move Help Improve Margins?

By Baptista Research

  • Boise Cascade’s fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results reflect a mix of achievements and challenges.
  • For the full year, Boise Cascade recorded a net income of $376.4 million or $9.57 per diluted share.
  • This performance was supported by growth initiatives in their distribution business, notable capital investments aimed at bolstering their Engineered Wood Products (EWP) growth strategy, and significant capital returns to shareholders.

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Apr 04
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CNMC Goldmine Holdings, Rio Tinto PLC, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, DSM-Firmenich, Helix Energy Solutions Group, Northern Oil and Gas and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • CNMC Goldmine Holdings Ltd. (CNCM SP): Cash Rich Gold Play In Singapore
  • Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi
  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources: Will This New Wildcat Mine Be the Game-Changer Investors Are Waiting For?
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 3 April (dsm-firmenich | Avantium)
  • Helix Energy Solutions: Five Pressing Issues That Could Shape Its 2025 Journey!
  • Northern Oil & Gas Is Betting Big on Refracking—Will This Unlock Hidden Wells of Profit?

CNMC Goldmine Holdings Ltd. (CNCM SP): Cash Rich Gold Play In Singapore

By Sameer Taneja

  • CNMC Goldmine Holdings (CNMC SP) is a cash-rich (net cash: 20 million SGD) gold play listed on the SGX with assets in Malaysia. Its market cap is 155 million SGD.
  • The company is a high-cost gold play, with cash costs of 1200 USD/oz excluding royalties. It is in the process of ramping production from 26,000 oz to 34,000 oz/annum.
  • Based on a 3000 USD/oz gold price, the stock trades at 5.7x PE, 4.0x EV-EBITDA with a 2.9% dividend yield (based on a 30% payout ratio). 

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn’t show a clear trend during March. Discounts: C.F.Alba, 14.9% as of 31 March (vs 14.1% as of 28 February); GBL, 37.6% (vs. 38.7%);
  • Heineken Holding, 11.2% (vs. 13%); Industrivärden C, 2.9% (vs. 5.1%); Investor B, 4.2% (vs. 2.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.9% (vs. 38.1%); Rio DLC 21.7% (vs. 17%). Vivendi 40.1% (vs. 38.7%). 
  • What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

Alpha Metallurgical Resources: Will This New Wildcat Mine Be the Game-Changer Investors Are Waiting For?

By Baptista Research

  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources recently released its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results.
  • The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $53 million for the quarter, indicating a modest increase from the previous quarter’s $49 million.
  • The company shipped 4.1 million tons in Q4, maintaining the same volume as in Q3, demonstrating consistent operational performance despite challenging market conditions.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 3 April (dsm-firmenich | Avantium)

By The IDEA!

  • dsm-firmenich | increases shareholding in Yantai DSM Andre Pectin Company dsm-firmenich completed the shareholding increase in Yantai DSM Andre Pectin Company to 90.5% from 75%.
  • Andre Pectin is a leading specialty food ingredient producer. The remaining 9.5% of the shares in Andre Pectin continue to be held by Rich Spring Holdings.
  • DSM acquired a 29% stake in Andre Pectin in 2013. In 2019 it raised its interest purchasing an additional 46% stake in Andre Pectin for a consideration of about EUR 150m.

Helix Energy Solutions: Five Pressing Issues That Could Shape Its 2025 Journey!

By Baptista Research

  • Helix Energy Solutions released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, reporting a strong performance in several key areas.
  • Total revenues for the quarter were $355 million, and the full year revenues reached $1.36 billion, both signifying healthy operational metrics.
  • The company managed to achieve a gross profit of $59 million in Q4 and $220 million for the complete year.

Northern Oil & Gas Is Betting Big on Refracking—Will This Unlock Hidden Wells of Profit?

By Baptista Research

  • Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) presents a multifaceted investment case characterized by an intricate blend of strategic growth initiatives, market challenges, and operational nuances as outlined in their recent earnings call.
  • A key highlight from the latest results is NOG’s strategic focus on long-term growth.
  • Despite facing formidable disruptions such as forest fires, refinery outages, and logistical challenges in the last quarter of 2024, which impacted some of their core basins like the Williston and Uinta, NOG successfully increased their 2024 oil production year-over-year by 25%.

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