Energy & Materials Sector

• Albemarle Corporation presented its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, highlighting several critical aspects of the company’s operations, financial health, and market dynamics.
• The fourth quarter saw Albemarle reporting net sales of $1.2 billion, although this marked a decline primarily attributed to lower lithium market pricing.
• Nevertheless, the company achieved a positive milestone with an adjusted EBITDA of $251 million, showing enhancements in productivity, cost efficiency, and sales volumes across its business segments.

• Antero Midstream Corporation reported its financial and operational results for the fourth quarter of 2024, showcasing a sustained growth trajectory.
• The company achieved $1.05 billion in EBITDA for the year, marking its tenth consecutive year of EBITDA growth.
• The return on invested capital (ROIC) hit a company record of 19%, attributed to strategic capital investments and accretive acquisitions.

• Kinross Gold’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call highlights a year of strong operational performance, financial outcomes, and strategic progress across its mining operations and projects.
• The company achieved noteworthy results, delivering 2.1 million ounces of gold in 2024 and over 500,000 ounces in the fourth quarter alone, reinforcing its adherence to production and cost guidance.
• The cost of sales and all-in sustaining costs were tightly managed, indicating effective cost discipline.

• Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM) has been actively navigating the challenges and opportunities presented in both its industry and macroeconomic environments.
• The company reported a strong performance in 2024 despite facing adverse weather conditions and a challenging economy.
• The year was marked by record financial performance in their aggregates division and significant strategic transactions totaling approximately $6 billion, aimed at enhancing their portfolio.

• The Williams Companies, a prominent player in the energy infrastructure sector, has recently reported its fourth quarter performance for 2024, showcasing a complex blend of achievements and challenges.
• Positioned strategically within the natural gas infrastructure domain, the company is experiencing significant growth momentum, which is expected to carry over into 2025 and beyond.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• KRX will replace Kumyang with the top backup from Materials—Miwon Specialty Chemical (268280 KS)—based on the last rebalancing.
• Kumyang jumped 15% today, but it’s likely just speculative mania off the battery sector bounce—not a sign they dodged KRX’s penalty.
• Kumyang still trades like a casino, and with this trade volume, its KOSPI 200 exit likely has minimal passive impact. The cleaner trade is on the inclusion name.

• For the week ending 14/Feb, U.S. crude inventories increased by 4.6m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 3.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles surprisingly fell, while distillate stocks dropped more than expected.
• U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 196 Bcf for the week ending 14/Feb, beating analyst expectations of a 191 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 5.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• Occidental’s Q4 adjusted EPS rose 8.1% YoY, beating estimates by 18.1%. However, it posted a net loss of USD 297 million. Wolfe Research, UBS, and Susquehanna raised price targets.

• DuPont delivered a robust performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, capping off a strong year.
• The company’s sales increased by 7%, driven by significant organic growth in both Electronics & Industrial (E&I) and Water & Protection (W&P).
• E&I continued to benefit from high demand in electronics markets, particularly in semiconductors and AI-related technologies, while W&P saw a rejuvenation in organic sales led by health care markets and water solutions.

• Energy Transfer LP reported strong financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, achieving an adjusted EBITDA of $15.5 billion—an increase of 13% over 2023 and marking a record for the partnership.
• The distributable cash flow (DCF) attributable to partners also reached a record $8.4 billion, up 10% from the previous year.
• The company saw a notable increase in various segments, including interstate, midstream, natural gas liquids (NGL), and crude segments, alongside record exports of NGLs. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Godawari Power and Ispat (GODPI IN) Q3 FY25 results show revenue and EBITDA declines due to lower iron ore and pellet production, despite improved volumes in HB wires and fabricated products.
• These declines highlight operational challenges affecting profitability, emphasizing the need for capacity expansion and enhanced cost controls in a competitive global steel market.
• The company dropped the plan to set up a greenfield integrated steel plant of 2 million tons. Instead, GPIL is evaluating alternative projects with lower capacity and capex.

• Apcotex Industries (APCO IN) operational revenue rose 38.2% YoY to INR 3,553 million in Q3 FY25, driven by strong volume gains and a 30% YoY increase in export volumes.
• Robust volume and export growth, alongside management’s capacity and anti-dumping initiatives, position Apcotex for margin recovery and long-term revenue expansion.
• The company expects margins to improve in Q4, driven by better capacity utilisation and an improving situation in the XNB (Nitrile Latex) business due to duties imposed by the US.

• Trualt Bioenergy Ltd (2350587D IN) (TBL) is planning to raise about US$120m through its upcoming India IPO. 
• TBL is one of India’s largest biofuels producers. As of FY24, TBL’s business verticals were Ethanol, ENA (Extra Neutral Alcohol), CBG (Compressed Biogas), FOM (Fermented Organic Manure), CO2 (Carbon Dioxide).
• As per the CRISIL Report, TBL held the distinction of being the largest ethanol producer in India based on installed capacity, as of Mar 24.

• BP’s Q4 revenue declined 12.3% YoY, missing estimates by 2.6%, while EPS fell 58.9% YoY and missed estimates by 3.4%. Underlying net profit dropped 60.9% YoY to USD 1.17 billion.
• Elliott acquired a 5% stake in BP, becoming its third-largest shareholder. The activist fund is likely to push for a stronger focus on fossil fuels and a pullback on renewables.
• BP’s Q4 cash flow dropped 20.8% YoY to USD 7.4 billion, while net debt climbed 10% to USD 23 billion. Despite this, it announced a USD 1.75 billion share buyback.

• On the 6th December 2024, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), China’s leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
• This elevated CNBM’s parent’s stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating  a whitewash waiver so the parent would not be obliged to make a full blown offer.  
• Independent H-shareholder overwhelmingly approved the waiver yesterday, the 19th February. Tendering closes on the 5th March. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. I’m estimating at least 35%. The Offer is now unconditional.

• Year-on-year increase of 11.06% in NR production in 2024
• Ivory Coast once again upstages Thailand in imports
• Seed collection and sales to nurseries turn revenue spinner for smallholders

• China National Building Material (3323 HK)‘s proposed H-share buyback has been approved. We continue to support existing shareholders to tender their holdings to accept the offer. 
• The buyback will enhance FY25 and FY26 EPS by 4.8% and 8.2%, respectively. Its book value will increase by 11% compared to without a buyback.
• The post-buyback FY25 PER of 9.6x is at a premium to the sector median of 7.6x. The proposal has led to significant outperformance, and we anticipate downside risks on completion. 

• OPEC kept its 2025 and 2026 oil demand growth forecasts steady, while EIA and IEA raised their estimates for 2025 by 3% and 4.8%, respectively.
• EIA sees India leading oil demand growth, with consumption rising 0.3m bpd in 2025 and 2026, while China’s demand is expected to increase by 0.2m bpd over the same period.
• Among the nine OPEC members with quotas, production fell 107k bpd MoM to 21.23m bpd, just below the 21.24m bpd target. Saudi Arabia led the decline in output.

• Eid Parry India (EID IN)‘s consolidated Q3 & 9M FY25 results show a 12% revenue growth and a 79% surge in EBITDA, despite challenges in its sugar segment.
• The robust margins and diversified revenue streams strengthen EID Parry’s overall resilience, enabling it to offset sector-specific challenges and tap into emerging growth opportunities.
• The Company’s future capital allocation is expected to prioritize ethanol blending and consumer products, contingent on a sustainable policy framework.

• I had the great pleasure of meeting with Boustead Singapore’s Chief Investment Officer, Keith Chu, and Head of Investor Relations, Dominic Seow, at their headquarters at the Edward Boustead Centre in Singapore.
• The meeting was set up by our friends at Smartkarma, whose analysts have covered Boustead Singapore in the past.
• While the stock price has risen +15% over the past year, it still trades at just 6.8x trailing P/E and 9.4x forward P/E.

• Southern Copper Corporation’s third-quarter and nine-month results for 2024 reflect a mixed performance with several key highlights and challenges.
• On the positive side, the company saw a significant boost in sales, production, and profitability.
• Revenue for the third quarter of 2024 increased to $2.9 billion, a 17% rise from the same period in 2023, mainly driven by a 21% rise in copper sales value and an 8% rise in copper sales volume.

• What you need to know: • Nicola announced drill results from its 14-hole, 4,874m drill program at its New Craigmont Copper Project.
• • Hole NC-24-002 intersected 1.03% Cu over 52.9m, highlighting significant copper mineralization at this target.
• • We remind readers of NIM’s partner Blue Lagoon Resources which recently secured final mine permits for its Dome Mountain Gold Project.

• YE24 1P, 2P and 3P reserves at Bretana were estimated at 62.9 mmbbl (YE23: 48 mmbbl), 108 mmbbl (YE23: 100.2 mmbbl) and 206.6 mmbbl (YE23: 199.6 mmbbl) respectively.
• Additionally, Los Angeles is now estimated to hold 5.8 mmbbl of 2P reserves, an increase of 1.5 mmbbl from previous estimates.
• Overall, the new reserves estimates represent a Reserves Replacement Ratio of 293% for 1P and 208% for 2P reserves.

• Pharos and IPR have signed a non-binding MOU with EGPC to use their best efforts to conclude negotiations for the merger of the El Fayum and North Beni Suef Concession Agreements.
• While there is limited information at this stage, this is an important step that would unlock further investment through better fiscal terms and longer licence duration.
• The El-Fayum licence has a current expiry date of 2034 (including a 5 year extension), with 9 years remaining.

• Discussion on recent acquisitions and earnings highlights in the resource sector
• Focus on BHP’s South Australian copper business and potential growth opportunities
• Analysis of return on capital employed for different assets within BHP’s portfolio

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• POSCO Holdings and Samsung SDI stand out for shorting, as both were hit hard by the EV battery chasm. With June rebal looming, they’re likely getting the boot.
• Samsung Biologics and Hanwha Aerospace could replace them, with a large float cap gap and strong price momentum, making it unlikely for the gap to flip by May.
• As June rebalancing nears, volume could drop, increasing passive impact. With shorting back, passive flow intensity may rise, leading to significant price action.

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.
• In JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
• The bear case rests on extensive proforma adjustments, the non-focus business remaining the largest profit contributor, margin pressure on the non-focus business and medium-to-long-term targets will likely disappoint.

•  Export earning crosses US$1 billion in 2024, up 7.66% from 2023  
• Local downstream producers appalled over rubber yield fall  
• Domestic tire industry in a bid to consolidate  

• Deep Industries (DEEPI IN) Q3 & 9M FY25 revenue surged 47% and EBITDA grew 53%, driven by robust order book (Rs. 2,701 crore) and major contracts like the ONGC PEC order.
• Robust growth underscores Deep Industries strategic positioning in the energy sector, with record profitability and order book expansion paving the way for long-term value creation amid favorable government initiatives.
• Company is anticipating a growth of more than 30% year-on-year for the next 3 years with target revenue of 800Cr in FY26 and margin of 45-47%.

• Kauntam Papers (KAUN IN)‘s Q3 & 9M FY25 results show revenue and EBITDA declines, yet steady sales volumes, cost optimization initiatives, and ongoing mill expansion efforts.
• Strategic cost management and mill expansion position the company to mitigate revenue challenges, ensuring long-term competitiveness in a dynamic paper industry.
• Industry is also asking for anti-dumping duty on some set of paper, especially copier, to make a level playing field with imported products.

• Plains All American Pipeline demonstrated strong financial performance in the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024, with the company surpassing its initial guidance.
• The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $729 million, and $2.78 billion for the full year, which exceeded expectations by approximately $105 million, or 4%.
• For 2025, the company predicts adjusted EBITDA to range between $2.8 billion and $2.95 billion, indicating a growth trajectory of around 3% year-over-year at the guidance midpoint.

• • A potential bypassed 60 m gas pay section, identified using advanced cased-hole logging tools and reprocessed existing 3-D seismic data, was put in production over a 23 m perforated interval at a rate of 1,100 boe/d, increasing to 1,300 boe/d over the past five days as the completion fluid has been recovered.
• The flow rate is above expectations and unlocks reserves.
• • This result showcases the potential upside at Condor’s Uzbekistan assets.

• We continue to prefer Vista for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector. We believe stronger operational performance and a reduction in country risk could drive bond outperformance.
• P1 reserves grew by 56.7 MMboe, or 17.8% YoY, to 375.2 MMboe, resulting in a reserves replacement ratio of 323% and a reserve life of 14.7 years.
• Total production increased 17.1% QoQ to 85.3 kbpd in 4Q24, up from 72.8 kbpd in 3Q24. This growth was primarily driven by a 15.7% sequential increase in crude oil production. 

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.  
• JXAM is a wholly owned subsidiary of ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP). After the listing, it is expected to become an equity-method affiliate of ENEOS.   
• The bull case rests on its leading market position, focus businesses’ improving performance, improving profitability, shift to cash generation, and low leverage. 

• JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
• JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• Kiri Industries (KIRI IN) ’s Q3/9M FY25 results show revenue growth, operational enhancements, and a legal victory in the DyStar case, alongside a strategic shift in joint venture accounting.
• The legal win and growth in high-margin segments signal improved profitability and future revenue potential, bolstered by a robust copper project on track for 2028.
• The new copper unit: Company investing close to 8000Cr in the new copper business, In first phase co will invest near to 1100Crs.

• For the week ending 14/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices gained 12.6% on the back of colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and falling inventories.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio dropped to 0.66 from 1.33 (07/Feb) the previous week as call volumes surged by 102.1% WoW, while put volumes inched down by 0.2%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.98 from 0.97 (07/Feb) last week. Call OI rose by 5.2% WoW, while put OI increased by 6.5%.

• New Toyo International, established in 1975, is a leading producer of specialty packaging materials in the Asia Pacific Region. Its operations span across Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Dubai, Indonesia and China. 
• The Group has two core business divisions. Its Specialty Papers division focuses on the production of laminated foil paper, and coated paper and metalized paper, while the Printed Carton and Labels division offers mainly gravure and lithography or offset printing of packaging materials for cigarettes and fast-moving products. In addition, the Group has a trading business that focuses on tobacco packaging-related materials, as well as a corrugated cartons production operation.
• For specialty paper, which is one-third of its revenues, but more than two-thirds of its profitability the company has maintained margins through active cost management and inventory control despite the recent decline in the revenues due to destocking.

• WTI futures fell by 0.4% for the week ending 14/Feb, marking its fourth straight weekly drop. Prices fell due to trade policy uncertainty and rising crude inventories.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.94 from 1.18 (07/Feb) last week, as call volume rose by 23.6% WoW while put volume dropped by 1.6%.  
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.96 from 0.98 last week. Call OI dropped by 16.9% WoW, while put OI decreased by 20.1%.

• In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Sherwin Williams buys BASF’s Architectural Paints business in Brazil • AkzoNobel | private equity appetite for AkzoNobel’s SE Asian Deco business?

• Total copper production, excluding Cobre Panamá, was 431,000 tonnes—14% higher than the previous year and exceeding guidance of 420,000 tonnes. Gold production also surpassed guidance at 139,000 ounces.
• Management believes the ICC’s five-month arbitration delay for the Cobre Panama mine, now set for February 2026, is unlikely to affect the pace of negotiations.
• The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.4x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama’s option value materializing makes it attractive (4.7x EV-EBITDA).

• Welspun Corp (WLCO IN)’s Q3 FY25 results show a sequential 9% revenue increase, significant net profit surge to Rs. 675 crore, and a robust order book exceeding Rs. 15,000 crore.
• Improved profitability and strategic growth initiatives bolster Welspun’s market position, enabling the company to capitalize on expanding demand in infrastructure and renewable sectors.
• Total Order book increased to 8.66L Ton in India and US, DI Pipe order book is at 3.5L Tons, where Saudi order book is for more than 2.5 yrs.

• Corcel has raised £2.72 million of new equity at a price of 0.16p per share, representing a premium of 6.7% to yesterday’s close.
• The company will also issue one warrant per new share with a strike price of 0.225p per share (24-month duration).
• Following a six-month period, Corcel will have the right to request the warrants to be exercised if the share price is equal to or above 0.30p per share for a period of 25 consecutive trading days.

• JX Advance Metal’s (JXAM) parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), is looking to raise around US$2.6bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
• JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used  in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• The U.S. oil and gas rig count rose for the third consecutive week, increasing by 2 to 588 for the week ending 14/Feb.
• For the week ending 07/Feb, U.S. oil production moderately rose to 13.49m bpd from 13.48m bpd the week prior.
• The number of  U.S. oil rigs rose by 1 to 481, while gas rigs grew by 1 to 101. Rig count in the Permian basin rose by 1 to 304.  

• Archean Chemical Industries (ACI IN)’s Q3 FY25 standalone total income reached INR 2,547 million, with EBITDA at INR 963 million (38% margin) and export markets contributing approximately 76% of revenue.
• Strong export performance and stable margins underscore resilience amid global market challenges, while strategic investments in new battery technologies promise future growth and diversification.
• The company aims to produce 20,000-25,000 tons of Bromine in FY’26 and expecting double digit growth in FY26.

•  Smallholders keep inventories as tire makers make guarded purchases  
• Wintering over, next season may start by March end  
• Indian Government ups Budget allocation for Rubber Board

• The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted modestly by 1 bps to 307 bps in the week ending Friday, February 14, 2025.
• Argentina’s inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in January, the lowest monthly figure in 4.5 years, according to INDEC.
• We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.

• Revenue increased YoY in Logistics Solutions and all segments except Business Innovation and Other Businesses, with profits driven by Logistics Solutions.
• Extraordinary gains from investment securities sales in Q3 FY03/25 were less than Q3 FY03/24, with reduced extraordinary losses.
• Revenue and operating profit increased across various segments, with notable growth in warehouse automation and maintenance work at refineries.

• Baseline assumption of ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in Year Ahead outlook published in November
• Potential for restarting Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe as part of negotiated end of conflict
• Estimated additional 40 bcm per annum of supply to Europe, impacting TTF price forecast in 2025

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• FY12/24 revenue was JPY245.6bn (+7.5% YoY), with operating profit at JPY13.2bn (+15.0% YoY) and net income JPY9.0bn (+20.6% YoY).
• Segment revenue and operating profit showed mixed results, with notable increases in packaging inks and digital printing materials sales.
• FY12/25 forecasts project revenue of JPY268.0bn (+9.1% YoY), with operating profit at JPY15.5bn (+17.8% YoY) and net income JPY10.8bn (+19.9% YoY).

• AptarGroup Inc. (ATR) reported results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, highlighting a balanced performance across its segments while navigating through various market challenges.
• The company achieved core sales growth of 2% for the quarter, driven by robust demand in its Pharma segment, which saw strong sales in proprietary drug delivery systems for allergic rhinitis and emergency medicines.
• The reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.52 exceeded expectations, aided by better operational performance and a favorable tax rate.

• Nickel Asia is market leader for Philippines nickel ore and will remain a top player with decades of reserves leaving it well-positioned for the country’s move up the value chain  
• However, short-term its share price has slumped on continued weakness in nickel, from a global oversupply and weakening demand, but also its removal from the PSEi 
• While the 2025E P/B at 0.85x on a 6.4% ROE is likely near cyclical lows and the valuation is inexpensive for such a major player, there are few immediate catalysts 

• JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 19 March.
• At the indicative IPO price of JPY 862/share, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will be valued at JPY 800bn (US$5.25bn).
• The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 28 April while timing of inclusion in global indices will depend on domestic/overseas allocations and price moves.

• ConocoPhillips’ fourth quarter 2024 results highlight a mixed financial and operational landscape, reflecting both strengths and areas for scrutiny.
• The company reported a commendable 4% year-over-year production growth, exceeding its full-year guidance range, and achieved a 123% preliminary organic reserve replacement ratio, marking a three-year average of 131%.
• The acquisition of Marathon late in 2024 bolstered the portfolio, promising synergies worth over $1 billion by the end of 2025.

• Sales were JPY169.3bn (+6.9% YoY), operating profit JPY6.4bn (+0.9% YoY), net income JPY3.5bn (-15.3% YoY).
• FY12/25 forecast: sales JPY175.0bn (+3.4% YoY), operating profit JPY6.5bn (+1.2% YoY), net income JPY4.3bn (+23.7% YoY).
• Company plans JPY1.5bn expense for structural reforms, maintaining annual dividend of JPY120 per share for FY12/25.

• Revenue for cumulative Q3 FY03/25 was JPY29.6bn, with operating profit at JPY3.2bn, and net income JPY1.9bn.
• The company revised its full-year forecast, maintaining revenue at JPY39.0bn, but increasing operating profit to JPY3.9bn.
• The year-end dividend forecast was raised to JPY11 per share, resulting in an annual dividend of JPY20.

• We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.
• Suzano posted strong 4Q24 results. Supported by the Pulp segment outperforming despite pricing headwinds. EBITDA reached R$6.5 billion, down a modest 0.6% QoQ but 5.3% above expectations
• From a credit perspective. Suzano’s results showed improved LTM EBITDA and positive net free cash flow, but net leverage rose slightly to 3.3x due to FX-driven debt increases.

• The company achieved revenue of JPY167.6bn (+5.2% YoY) and operating profit of JPY14.2bn (+13.9% YoY), with a GPM of 27.3%.
• Full-year FY12/25 forecast projects revenue of JPY165.0bn (-1.5% YoY) and operating profit of JPY15.0bn (+5.4% YoY).
• The company plans a JPY7.0bn treasury stock repurchase, targeting a total shareholder return ratio of 108.2% for 2025.

• Occidental is to report its Q4 earnings on 18/Feb and analysts project its revenue and EPS to fall by 2.6% YoY and 9.5%, respectively.
• As of 13/Feb, Occidental’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 32.89%, with an IV rank of 76.4% and an IV percentile of 91%.
• Occidental’s OI by strike for the 21/Feb expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 50, 52.5, and 55, while puts dominate at 45 and 47.5.

• When I originally recommended Magnera (MAGN) in November, my investment thesis could be summarized as follows: “trough valuation on trough earnings.”
• And after the company reported earnings, that thesis remains intact.
• In its most recent quarter Magnera reported y/y sales and EBITDA growth, suggesting that results have troughed.

• Sharp decline in heavy OEM commercial vehicle tire production in 2024
• China PCLT tire import volume into EU up 50% since 2019
• EU extends tariffs on Chinese truck and bus tires

• For the week ending 07/Feb, US crude inventories increased by 4.1m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2.4m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles surprisingly fell, while distillate stocks unexpectedly rose.
• US natural gas inventories fell by 100 Bcf for the week ending 07/Feb, beating analyst expectations of a 90 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.8% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• BP’s Q4 net profit fell 48.5% QoQ and missed estimates by 2.5% due to weak refining margins. Chevron plans to trim workforce by 20% to cut costs. 

• In 1H FY06/25, revenue was JPY3.6bn (+2.4% YoY), with operating profit at JPY494mn (-17.0% YoY).
• Water-related business revenue reached JPY983mn (+8.6% YoY), with a narrowed segment loss of JPY24mn from JPY39mn.
• Full-year FY06/25 forecast: revenue JPY11.2bn (+17.8% YoY), operating profit JPY1.9bn (+10.0% YoY), net income JPY1.2bn.

• OPTT’s focus on commercialization continues to gain traction as it inked a $2 million deal in Latin America for its PowerBuoy product.
• The details of the deal are scant at this point, but it’s clear that this represents significant traction in the firm’s sales efforts in the region.
• Total revenue in 2Q25 was $2.4 million, which represented a 172% Y/Y increase. So, this deal represents a meaningful revenue number. 

• ADX’s acreage in Austria has been modified to include additional near-term, low-risk gas prospects, as well as high-impact, higher-risk opportunities.
• One focus of the 2025 program is to drill shallow, low-risk, high initial production gas prospects that can be rapidly put into production.
• ADX has more than tripled the number of these prospects within its revised acreage positions at ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II, holding 100% WI in the new prospects.

• • YE24 2P reserves were estimated at 50 mmbbl (up from 38 mmbbl at YE23).
• This represents a Reserves Replacement Ratio of 245%, significantly above our expectations of ~100%.
• • The reserves revision reflects (1) upward revision of STOIIP estimates (the high achieved recovery factors suggest that the volumes initially in place had been underestimated), (ii), positive drilling results which reflect Valeura’s application of advanced drilling and completion technologies including geosteering and inflow control and (iii) better well performance with lower decline rates than initially estimated.

•  FY25 oil production is expected to be 1,000-1,200 bbl/d with 8-12 work-overs costing US$0.04-0.07 mm per well (total of US$0.32-US$0.84 mm).
• This in line with our expectations (1,150 bbl/d production and ~US$1 mm capex).
• The capex requirement to reach first gas in 1Q26 at SE MGH based on modular LNG is now estimated at US$3-5 mm (we assumed US$5 mm).

• Revenue increased by 16.8% YoY, driven by higher product prices and increased sales volumes in the semiconductor industry.
• Operating profit rose by 17.2% YoY, supported by higher sales and an expanded inventory valuation gain from raw material price fluctuations.
• Full-year FY03/25 forecast remains unchanged, reflecting uncertainties in interest rates, exchange rates, and raw material market conditions.

• In Q4, TotalEnergies beat adjusted net income forecasts by 4.8% and revenue projections by 11%. Adjusted net income and EPS rose by 8.1% QoQ and 9.2%, respectively.
• TotalEnergies’ average gas price realisation rose 8.3% QoQ, European refining margins surged by 68.2% QoQ, while LNG price realisation rose 4.6%.
• TotalEnergies’ hydrocarbon production rose 0.7% QoQ to 2.43 mboepd, as a 4.5% gas output increase offset a 2.4% oil production decline.

• HIIR from Japan, Russia, Singapore, UK, USA face action
• India producer Reliance Sibur petitions DGTR on dumping
• ADD range from 10% to 70% on the affected imports

• HIIR from Japan, Russia, Singapore, UK, USA face action
• India producer Reliance Sibur petitions DGTR on dumping
• ADD range from 10% to 70% on the affected imports

• In Q1 FY12/24, revenue was JPY78.2bn (-0.2% YoY), operating profit JPY6.9bn (+46.0% YoY), recurring profit JPY4.9bn (+100.8% YoY).
• The company raised its annual dividend forecast to JPY11.0, targeting a payout ratio of about 40%.
• Full-year forecast for FY12/25 remains undecided due to uncertainties in alloy prices and electronic component demand.

• Crown Holdings, Inc. reported its fourth-quarter performance for the year 2024, demonstrating notable growth and operational improvements, albeit with some challenges.
• The earnings per share for the quarter reached $3.02, largely augmented by a significant gain from the sale of Eviosys.
• When adjusted, the earnings per share stood at $1.59, which surpassed the $1.24 figure from the comparable quarter in the previous year.

• What you need to know: • Tocvan provided an update on its ongoing drill program at its Gran Pilar Gold Silver Project in Sonora, Mexico.
• • A total of 1,122m of core drilling across 10 drill holes have been completed at the majority controlled Main Zone.
• • A visual review of the core identified key structures and rock characterization.

• FY12/24 revenue was JPY29.8bn, with operating profit at JPY3.1bn, and net income at JPY2.1bn.
• Agrichemicals revenue declined 6.8% YoY, while fertilizers and biostimulants revenue increased 9.3% YoY to JPY18.7bn.
• FY12/25 forecasts project revenue at JPY30.8bn, operating profit at JPY3.3bn, and net income at JPY2.1bn.

• FY12/24 sales reached JPY1.07tn (+3.1% YoY), with operating profit at JPY44.5bn (+148.1% YoY), driven by product mix and cost reductions.
• Sales in Packaging and Graphic segment increased due to jet inks demand, while Functional Products saw divestitures impact.
• FY12/25 forecasts project JPY1,110.0bn sales (+3.6% YoY) and JPY48.0bn operating profit (+7.8% YoY), with dividend policy maintained.

• The independent music Company housing talent management, live booking, merchandising, talent services and events, provided an update on trading for the financial year ended 31 December 2024.
• FY24 delivered 100% growth in Group revenue to circa £50m (FY23: £24.1m) and profitability milestone surpassed with adjusted operating EBITDA anticipated to be approximately £1.5m (FY23: loss of £0.46m).
• The Board of ATC is considering moving the public quotation for trading in its shares to a market operated by the LSE.