Energy & Materials Sector

• In Q4, TotalEnergies beat adjusted net income forecasts by 4.8% and revenue projections by 11%. Adjusted net income and EPS rose by 8.1% QoQ and 9.2%, respectively.
• TotalEnergies’ average gas price realisation rose 8.3% QoQ, European refining margins surged by 68.2% QoQ, while LNG price realisation rose 4.6%.
• TotalEnergies’ hydrocarbon production rose 0.7% QoQ to 2.43 mboepd, as a 4.5% gas output increase offset a 2.4% oil production decline.

• HIIR from Japan, Russia, Singapore, UK, USA face action
• India producer Reliance Sibur petitions DGTR on dumping
• ADD range from 10% to 70% on the affected imports

• HIIR from Japan, Russia, Singapore, UK, USA face action
• India producer Reliance Sibur petitions DGTR on dumping
• ADD range from 10% to 70% on the affected imports

• In Q1 FY12/24, revenue was JPY78.2bn (-0.2% YoY), operating profit JPY6.9bn (+46.0% YoY), recurring profit JPY4.9bn (+100.8% YoY).
• The company raised its annual dividend forecast to JPY11.0, targeting a payout ratio of about 40%.
• Full-year forecast for FY12/25 remains undecided due to uncertainties in alloy prices and electronic component demand.

• Crown Holdings, Inc. reported its fourth-quarter performance for the year 2024, demonstrating notable growth and operational improvements, albeit with some challenges.
• The earnings per share for the quarter reached $3.02, largely augmented by a significant gain from the sale of Eviosys.
• When adjusted, the earnings per share stood at $1.59, which surpassed the $1.24 figure from the comparable quarter in the previous year.

• What you need to know: • Tocvan provided an update on its ongoing drill program at its Gran Pilar Gold Silver Project in Sonora, Mexico.
• • A total of 1,122m of core drilling across 10 drill holes have been completed at the majority controlled Main Zone.
• • A visual review of the core identified key structures and rock characterization.

• FY12/24 revenue was JPY29.8bn, with operating profit at JPY3.1bn, and net income at JPY2.1bn.
• Agrichemicals revenue declined 6.8% YoY, while fertilizers and biostimulants revenue increased 9.3% YoY to JPY18.7bn.
• FY12/25 forecasts project revenue at JPY30.8bn, operating profit at JPY3.3bn, and net income at JPY2.1bn.

• FY12/24 sales reached JPY1.07tn (+3.1% YoY), with operating profit at JPY44.5bn (+148.1% YoY), driven by product mix and cost reductions.
• Sales in Packaging and Graphic segment increased due to jet inks demand, while Functional Products saw divestitures impact.
• FY12/25 forecasts project JPY1,110.0bn sales (+3.6% YoY) and JPY48.0bn operating profit (+7.8% YoY), with dividend policy maintained.

• The independent music Company housing talent management, live booking, merchandising, talent services and events, provided an update on trading for the financial year ended 31 December 2024.
• FY24 delivered 100% growth in Group revenue to circa £50m (FY23: £24.1m) and profitability milestone surpassed with adjusted operating EBITDA anticipated to be approximately £1.5m (FY23: loss of £0.46m).
• The Board of ATC is considering moving the public quotation for trading in its shares to a market operated by the LSE.

• Japanese tire firms mull option of broadening production base in US  
• May explore low-cost Southeast Asian destinations too  
• Diversifying supply-chain network to be on top of agenda  

• BHP plans for a small increase in uranium production at Olympic Dam, with speculation on the impact
• Interview with Grant Isaac from Cameco sheds light on the uranium market trends

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• WTI futures fell by 2.1% for the week ending 07/Feb on the back of uncertain trade policy, growing U.S. crude stockpiles, and a strengthening dollar.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.18 from 1.31 (31/Jan) last week, as call volume fell by 51% WoW while put volume dropped by 56.1%.  
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.98 from 1.00 last week. Call OI rose by 5.2% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.5%.

• For the week ending 07/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices gained 8.7% on the back of colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and falling inventories.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio decreased to 1.33 from 1.50 (31/Jan) the previous week as call volumes fell by 26.7% WoW, while put volumes declined by 35%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.97 from 0.96 from last week. Call OI rose by 5.6% WoW, while put OI increased by 7.2%.

• The U.S. oil and gas rig count rose for the second straight week, increasing by 4 to 586 for the week ending 07/Feb.
• For the week ending 31/Jan, U.S. oil production rose to 13.48m bpd from 13.24m bpd the week prior.
• The number of active oil rigs rose by 1 to 480 and gas rigs grew by 2 to 100. The number of rigs in Permian basin remained unchanged at 303.

• • Tariki-5A has been put on production at a stable rate of 1 mmcf/d plus 25-30 bbl/d of condensate.
• This is less than anticipated (2-5.5 mmcf/d during clean-up with deliverability estimates of ~12 mmcf/d based on wellhead data) due to liquid loading in the tubing and difficulties in managing liquid slugging at Waihapa after ~30 km of pipeline.
• NZE is considering remediation operations to reduce the amount of liquid production, which could increase wellhead pressure and potentially gas production.

• Equinor ASA’s Q3 earnings report presents mixed signals, with both promising and challenging aspects evident in its operational and financial activities.
• On the positive side, Equinor delivered solid financial results despite a challenging environment with numerous planned turnarounds.
• The company reported an adjusted operating income of $6.9 billion before tax and an IFRS net income of $2.3 billion.

• Corteva Agriscience concluded 2024 with performance in line with expectations and a strategic focus on sustaining value creation through 2027.
• Despite operating in less than ideal market conditions, the company achieved 20% operating EBITDA margins for the first time, maintaining flat year-over-year operating EBITDA.
• Notably, the Crop Protection segment showed resilience with double-digit organic sales growth and an 800 basis points margin improvement in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by strong demand in Brazil.

• TotalEnergies’ 2024 results presentation and 2025 outlook meeting provides critical insights into the company’s ongoing operations and future strategy.
• TotalEnergies has continued to execute its dual-pillar strategy focused on oil and gas, particularly LNG, and integrated power.
• The 2024 performance highlights notable achievements and challenges across these areas.

• Vishnu Chemicals (VCL IN) posted strong Q3 financials with 22% revenue, 55% EBITDA, and 66% PAT YoY growth; new capex in chromium and expansion of barium, Strontium Carbonate production underway.
• Capacity of chromium has potential to operate at 90% utilization level, where Barium segment is operating at  60-70%, can be used till 80-85%.
• Company is plan to gain market share in US due to reduced competition.

• KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
• In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2025.
• We expect six ADDs and six DELs for the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2025 index rebal event based on the latest available data.

• JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Thursday the 20th of March (due to the public holiday on the 21st of March).
• The current rankings suggest that AMS may enter the Top 40, with GRT falling out.
• AMS’s net market cap is 8.5% above SSW, suggesting that entry into the Top 40 at this point is possible.

• Debate surrounding potential increase in Russian pipeline gas to Europe, with uncertainty of timing and magnitude of flows
• Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the US all have vested interests in potential negotiations for increased pipeline gas flows
• Impact on European natural gas balance and global gas balance if increased Russian pipeline flows were to manifest, with current base case price forecast for TTF market in 2025 and 2026 without embedding increase in Russian natural gas flows

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• The outlook for copper in the near term is positive, but the market interest in copper may mean higher prices
• Investing in copper may be expensive due to high demand and M&A activity in the sector
• Finding a pure play copper company of significant scale on the ASX may be challenging, with considerations of China’s impact on copper demand and production levels in mind.

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• VET is undervalued, trading at a price target of C$26.00/share with a 20% yield on 2025E levered free cash flow
• The company plans to grow production and sustain cash flow for another decade, with a strong balance sheet and attractive reinvestment opportunities
• VET has exposure to European gas pricing, high netbacks, and slow decline rates, with management committed to returning 50% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• On Sunday 9th of February, the people of Ecuador headed to the polls to elect a new president. The first round was narrowly won by incumbent Noboa.
• A run-off between Noboa and Gonzalez is planned for April 13th. A victory for either candidate is bullish Ecuador mining companies as both have a pro-mining stance.
• Solaris Resources has been often targeted by anti-mining protestors in the past but a new stable government and a new Solaris CEO could catapult stock higher.

• SGX Iron Ore Futures rose by $2.25/ton, closing at $107.30/ton on Feb 7, after trading within a $5.50/ton range, the widest in recent weeks.
• Strong demand from steel mills, a weaker U.S. dollar (-0.4%), and supply risks from Rio Tinto port clearances drove iron ore prices higher.
• Prices trade above key moving averages, with RSI nearing the overbought zone (65.08), suggesting a potential correction in line with historical post-CNY trends.

• We maintain our Market Perform recommendation on Cemex. Current spreads do not offer an attractive entry point, particularly given the potential risk of U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports.
• We would keep the name on our watchlist for potential investment should this risk of U.S. tariffs subside.
• Within Cemex’s capital structure, we prefer the CEMEX (BBB-/BBB-) 5.20% 2030 notes, which trade wider than the Mexican sovereign, the EM BBB index, and comparable peers.

• Gold Anomaly As Warren Pies wrote in a post last week, the current performance of Gold is really an anomaly, both plotted against TIPS and the USD-Index.
• This anomaly once again highlights the importance of thinking of gold as a liquidity hedge – it is not primarily an inflation hedge or always highly correlated with the USD or inflation expectations.
• Warren wrote that 2024 (and also currently) is the fifth calendar year with positive 10y TIPS yields and positive gold returns (2005, 2006, 2008, 2023).

• ChampionX Corporation’s fourth quarter and full-year 2023 financial results demonstrate robust operational performance coupled with strategic capital allocation.
• The company successfully capitalized on its well-diversified portfolio, achieving significant growth in key financial metrics post its merger in 2020.
• Highlighting the positives, ChampionX recorded a 25% growth in adjusted EBITDA and expanded its adjusted EBITDA margin by 430 basis points, showcasing strong earnings momentum.

• There are 6 stocks in Australia that could be deleted from global passive portfolios later this month, though the probability of deletion varies across the stocks. 
• If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between US$234m-330m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-23 days of ADV.
• The potential deletions have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) over nearly every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Shorts have increased on all stocks recently.

• Copper prices closed above $9,000 per ton once more and are poised for short-term gains as the outlook on China’s economic recovery becomes more favorable.
• The COMEX spread has hit a 12-week high, nearly reaching $1,000 per ton, as traders expressed concerns about copper potentially being included in the Trump administration’s blanket levies.
• We favor Southern Copper (SCCO US)  and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)  due to their greater copper exposure, higher ROCEs, and robust long-term expansion strategies.

• Goldman Sachs has upgraded its iron ore price forecast, highlighting rising near-term demand from China’s steel sector during the spring construction season and weather-related disruptions at Australian ports.
• However, Goldman is bearish on iron ore for the second half (a consensus view), predicting a decline in China’s steel demand and the emergence of lower-cost supply.
• We continue to pound the table on Fenix Resources (FEX AU). Read “Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q2 FY25 Update: Close to Tripling Production.

• Clean Science and Technology (CLEAN IN) is one of the leading chemical manufacturers globally of functionally critical specialty chemicals, Pharmaceutical Intermediates, and FMCG Chemicals.
• It has embarked on a massive expansion by commissioning a new plant to manufacture HALS and is also spending additional capex to manufacture new products.
• With forensics, we pay attention to excessive remuneration being paid to promoters, concentration risk from top customers, and increase in attrition of permanent employees.

• Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI) reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the full year.
• Its performance highlights include a sequential revenue increase of 12% in the fourth quarter, reaching $1.2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA surpassing guidance at $210 million.
• For the full year, ATI achieved nearly $4.4 billion in revenue, marking its highest since 2012, with a 5% year-over-year increase despite industry challenges.

• Axalta Coating Systems reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, achieving record net sales and adjusted EBITDA levels.
• Net sales for the fourth quarter amounted to $1.3 billion, marking a notable performance amid challenging macroeconomic conditions and foreign currency fluctuations.
• This growth was predominantly driven by gains in the company’s Refinish and Light Vehicle segments, alongside contributions from strategic acquisitions like CoverFlexx.

• Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, demonstrating mixed performance across various operational fronts amid challenging market conditions.
• The results reveal a nuanced landscape for potential investors, marked by strategic divestitures and investments, a focus on innovation, and ongoing pressures facing consumer and retail markets.
• For 2024, Graphic Packaging recorded sales of $8.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.7 billion, which translates to a robust margin of 19.1%.

• Back on the 6th December, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), China’s leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
• As this elevates CNBM’s parent’s stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, independent H-shareholder will vote on a whitewash waiver on the 19th February. 
• Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. It is likely to be higher. The question is whether to buy, and/or borrow, and tender; or simply short outright.

• Occidental’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 2.6% and 9.5% YoY, with full-year 2024 declines of 3.8% and 10%, respectively.
• Occidental’s average realised worldwide oil price dropped by 7.4% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to USD 69.73/b. Conversely, its average realised global NGL price rose by 6.5% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.
• The STRATOS plant, one of the largest DAC projects globally, will begin operations by mid-2025. It is expected to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.

• BP set to report its Q4 and 2024 earnings on 11/Feb, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively.
• As of 06/Feb, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 35.21%, with an IV rank of 82.9% and an IV percentile of 99%.
• BP’s OI by strike for the 07/Feb expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 31.5, 32, and 32.5, while puts dominate at 29.5, 30, and 30.5.

• ExxonMobil reported earnings of $34 billion for the year, marking its third-highest result over the past decade, despite facing softer market conditions.
• This financial outcome underscores ExxonMobil’s robust operational efficiency and strategic agility.
• The five-year average return on capital employed (ROCE) stands at an industry leading 11%.

• For the week ending 31/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 8.7m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2.4m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.
• US natural gas inventories fell by 174 Bcf for the week ending 31/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 167 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.4% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• TotalEnergies’ Q4 adjusted earnings rose 8.1% QoQ and beat estimates by 4.8% led by robust growth in the LNG and Integrated Power divisions.

• Deepak Fertilisers & Petro (DFPC IN) Q3 FY25 saw revenue rise 39% YoY, EBITDA up 72%, and net profit 318% YoY, driven by expansion and a shift to specialty products.
• Company saw significant volume growth across segments except crop nutrition segment.
• Company is under restructuring exercise, which will demerge all the different segment and unlock value over longer term.

• Murphy Oil Corporation’s fourth quarter 2024 earnings provide a nuanced perspective on the company’s financial and operational landscape.
• The corporation has demonstrated a commitment to its strategic priorities: deleveraging, executing operational plans, exploring growth opportunities, and delivering returns to shareholders.
• There are notable highlights and areas of concern from the results that potential investors might consider.

• CNX Resources Corporation has delivered its fourth-quarter results for 2024, presenting a mix of opportunities and challenges.
• The company continues to explore new technologies and strategic initiatives across its business segments, showcasing resilience in a fluctuating energy market.
• On the positive side, CNX Resources highlighted its ongoing advancements in the capture and utilization of coal mine methane (CMM), which has gained federal recognition as a low-carbon intensity feedstock for hydrogen production under the 45V guidelines.

• Trade war impacts the market sentiment
• Arbitrage widens for international cargoes 
• Lower inventory could bring some buying back

• Himadri Speciality Chemical (HSCH IN) delivered strong Q3 and 9M FY25 performance, with revenue, EBITDA, and PAT rising significantly, and launched major capacity expansions and new high-value product investments.
• Himadri is set to capitalize on growing EV and lithium-ion battery markets, enhancing long-term profitability and sustainability.
• Company acquired Birla tyre and also took more than 10% stake in Sicona, an Australian startup specializing in silicon anode technology, which will drive further growth once stabilise.

• Trump declares a national energy emergency and calls for increased oil production
• The US shale revolution led to a surge in oil and gas production
• Despite Trump’s push for more drilling, the oil industry is hesitant due to current market conditions and oversupply of oil

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
• In this insight, we are presenting our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the March 2025 index rebal event.
• We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and four changes for NIFTY 100. We expect the results to be announced in the next few days.

• India is becoming a key player in global oil demand growth, with forecasts predicting substantial expansion in the coming years
• The global oil industry is shifting its focus from China to India as the main driver of demand growth
• Challenges for India in meeting oil demand include weather effects, economic activity rhythms, currency strength, and inflation impacts on affordability

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• Drilling equipment and service provider updated the terms for its IPO in late January. 
• They had total revenue of $577.2 million and $614.8 million and net income of $10.2 million and $44.9 million in the first three quarters of 2023 and 2024, respectively.
• The Houston based company would be following three previous energy IPOs: Flowco Holdings (FLOC US) , Venture Global LNG (VG US) and Infinity Natural Resources (INR US)

• Yoon Kwan’s appeal won’t change much—it’s just stalling. His tax uncertainty is now priced in, so the reason to delay selling his EcoPro M stake is quickly fading.
• The BRV block deal won’t follow the new pre-disclosure rule, as Yoon’s likely to classify BRV as a financial investor, so no one-month heads-up.
• The deal’s likely in 2-3 weeks; volume will spike 2-3 days before. Once we catch the signals, it’s time to position for the EcoPro M block trade.

• Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) reported Q3 FY25 revenue growth of 8% and volume up 13.9%, alongside new capacity expansions and Rs. 697 crore in new orders.
• These robust results and strategic capacity boosts underscore RKFL’s resilience, positioning it for sustainable growth amid raw material and market headwinds.
• Investors should see the mixed Q3 performance as a sign of proactive investments that could translate into significant long-term value.

• Shell’s Q4 revenue fell by 15.8% YoY and its adjusted earnings dropped by 49.9%. However, its revenue beat analyst estimates by 8% but missed EPS projections by 10.8%.  
• Shell raised its dividend by 4% and announced a USD 3.5 billion share buyback for the current quarter, marking 13 consecutive quarters of at least USD 3 billion in repurchases.
• Shell achieved USD 3.1 billion in cost reductions by end-2024, surpassing its USD 2–3 billion target a year ahead of schedule. Net debt fell by 10.9% YoY in Q4.

• Olin Corporation’s latest financial results present a mixed picture, reflecting both strategic advancements and ongoing challenges.
• The fourth quarter saw positive developments, such as a sequential 9% sales increase in Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls (CAPV), facilitated by volume recovery post-Hurricane Beryl and improved pricing.
• Additionally, cost reductions are underway, with plans to achieve $250 million in savings by 2028, including $20 to $30 million aimed for in 2025.

• Aarti Industries (ARTO IN) reported Q3 FY25 revenue of Rs. 2,305 crores with 14% QoQ growth, robust volume gains, capacity expansions in MMA and nitro-toluene, and ongoing cost optimizations.
• Strong Q3 performance and capacity boosts bolster AIL’s long-term growth prospects, mitigating pricing pressures and forex challenges while fueling diversification into renewables and chemical recycling.
• AIL’s strategic investments and diverse product mix signal resilient growth and margin improvements, suggesting a promising long-term outlook despite current short-term forex volatility.

•  Heavy rain may occur in east Indonesia during one-month period
• Disruption to rubber production may be mostly from heat
• WEF, WMO seek private contribution for early weather warning

• Must Asset Management, a 3% shareholder of Young Poong (000670 KS), started to go activist on the company on 5 February.
• Based on current market cap, this would represent a P/B of 0.2x using the consolidated controlling interest equity of 3.9 trillion won!
• There is some speculation that Must Asset Mgmt may form an alliance with Chairman Choi’s family as it proposed to Young Poong to recommend outside directors.

• Low free float market cap has kept PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN IJ) out of a major global index so far.
• An increase in float recently to just above 15% could result in the inclusion of the stock in the index in February and that will trigger large passive buying.
• There is positioning in the stock, and the future stock path will depend on whether it is added to the index or not.

• Back on the 28th January, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) launched a A$1.05/share off-market Offer for Red Hawk Mining (RHK AU), increasing to A$1.20/share if securing 75% of shares out. 
• Red Hawks has announced Fortescue now has 78%, and has bumped terms to A$1.20/share. The Offer remains subject to “no prescribed occurrences“, which should be waived by the 17th Feb.
• The Offer remains open until the 3 March. Unless extended. Fortescue intends to delist Red Hawk. 

• Since the start of 2025, Arras has released two batches of drill results from its exploration activities in Kazakhstan. Early results look very promising and the stock has reacted accordingly.
• 2025 is going to be a very busy year of newsflow for Arras with a lot of optionality to drive a further re-rating.
• Arras remains a high risk/reward junior exploration company with a market cap of only 33M USD. Arras is targeting both copper and gold.

• Predictive Discovery receives a strategic investment of $69 million from Lundeen and Zejin, leading to a 13% increase in stock price
• The funds will be used for advancing the DFS at the Bankhan gold project in Guinea and other development activities
• Predictive’s Bankan project has a 5.4 million ounce resource and a 3 million ounce reserve, with an average production profile of 269,000 ounces per annum over 12 years at an AISC of $1,100 per ounce

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• CMP’s cumulative Q3 FY03/25 sales reached JPY96.1bn, driven by marine and industrial paints, despite container paint declines.
• Operating profit increased to JPY11.6bn, with improved GPM, despite higher raw material and transportation costs.
• CMP revised its FY03/25 forecast upwards, expecting JPY130.0bn sales and JPY13.5bn net income, citing foreign exchange gains.

• Tire industry to be a collateral damage in the tariff battle  
• 91% of projected light truck tire requirement is import reliant  
• Trade balance tipping towards China and Canada  

• Given the scale of these trade flows, any imposition of tariffs by the U.S. could create significant ripple effects on Mexico’s economic growth, investment climate, and employment
• In LTM September 2024, Cemex generated ~31% of its revenues in Mexico and 31% in the U.S., while 44% of its EBITDA came from Mexico and 29% from the U.S
• The U.S. market represents a meaningful portion of Pemex’s crude exports. In 2024, the company exported 460 kbd, accounting for 57.1% of total exports and 26.5% of total production

• The Turnagain Project is one of the world’s largest undeveloped nickel-cobalt sulphide deposits, boasting a robust PFS with an NPV7% of $574M and significant leverage to rising nickel prices.
• Exploration planned for 2025 aims to identify new high-grade zones, further enhancing project economics and scalability.
• The project has a low C1 cash cost of $4.70/lb Ni (after by-product credits) and produces a high-purity concentrate.

• Following the discovery well, Arrow has drilled two new vertical wells at Alberta Llanos, effectively delineating the field.
• The AB-2 well at the far northern limit of the field encountered multiple hydrocarbon-bearing intervals with good reservoir characteristics but came in structurally lower than anticipated, resulting in sub-economic oil rates from the Carbonera sandstones.
• Additional zones can be completed at a later stage.

• Excel Industries (EXL IN) faced severe financial declines in FY24 but showed early Q2 FY25 improvement through higher export revenues and better margins amid strategic capacity expansion and new partnerships.
• Its diversified product portfolio, especially DETC, and proactive R&D investments are key to overcoming volatility, making Excel Industries pivotal in sustaining India’s chemical innovation despite market headwinds.
• Investors should note that despite recent downturns, targeted expansion and strategic partnerships could reverse performance trends, revealing potential long-term value if operational challenges are resolved.

• WTI futures fell by 2.9% for the week ending 31/Jan on the back of trade policy uncertainty, growing U.S. crude stockpiles, and a strengthening dollar.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.31 from 0.85 (24/Jan) last week, as call volume rose by 78.1% WoW while put volume surged by 176.3%.  
• WTI OI PCR fell to 1.00 from 1.01 last week. Call OI rose by 8.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 6.9%.

• Baker Hughes Company (Baker Hughes) presented a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, showing notable growth across several financial metrics, yet managing challenges characteristic of the energy and industrial sectors.
• The company exceeded the midpoint of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance for the eighth consecutive quarter.
• The fourth quarter set new records for revenue, free cash flow, adjusted earnings per share (EPS), and adjusted EBITDA and margins.

• For the week ending 31/Jan, U.S. natural gas prices dropped by 24.4% amid volatile weather forecasts and softening heating demand outlook.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.50 from 1.05 (24/Jan) the previous week as call volumes fell by 40.2% WoW, while put volumes declined by 14.7%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 from 0.93 from last week. Call OI fell by 17.0% WoW, while put OI decreased by 14.6%.

• Dow Inc. reported its Q4 2024 and full-year financial results under challenging macroeconomic conditions, highlighting both positive strides and ongoing challenges.
• In Q4, Dow achieved its fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year volume growth despite a weak economic backdrop.
• The company reported net sales of $10.4 billion, down 2% from the same period last year, reflecting pricing pressures across all operating segments.

• International Paper’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call provided insights into the company’s current performance and future outlook.
• Overall, the results were aligned with management’s expectations, while highlighting areas of achievement and challenges going forward.
• In terms of business operations, the significant development is the closure of the DS Smith transaction, which positions International Paper as a leading entity in sustainable packaging solutions across North America and EMEA.

• Oil markets in 2024 experienced slow supply and demand growth after years of high volatility
• Heading into 2025, demand is reaccelerating faster than supply, leading to a bullish outlook
• With low inventory levels and a modest supply deficit expected, prices are likely to gradually rise to low 80s Brent basis

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• Rubber production in December suffers a loss of 30%  
• Yokohama Rubber plays Good Samaritan in hour of crisis  
• CMO enabling FSC Certification for Thai rubber for EUDR

• Trump prioritizes reducing US trade deficit by urging nations with trade surpluses to increase oil and gas purchases or face tariffs
• To reduce bilateral deficits, US would need to significantly increase oil and gas exports to Europe, China, South Korea, and Japan
• Trump administration aims to accelerate US oil and gas production growth to meet demand and potentially lower costs for producers to achieve goals of reducing trade deficit and increasing energy exports

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The U.S. oil and gas rig count rose for the first time in eight weeks, as it rose by 6 to 582 for the week ending 31/Jan.
• For the week ending 24/Jan, U.S. oil production fell to 13.24m bpd from 13.48m bpd the week prior.
• The number of active U.S. oil rigs rose by 7 to 479 while gas rigs dropped by 1 to 98. U.S. producers added four rigs in New Mexico.

• BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. 
• BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.
• BP’s refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.

• TotalEnergies is to report its Q4 earnings on 05/Feb, with its quarterly and annual revenue and EPS projected to fall on a YoY basis.
• As of 03/Feb, TotalEnergies’ implied volatility (IV) stands at 23.20%, with an IV rank of 63.17% and an IV percentile of 84%.
• TotalEnergies’ OI by strike for the 21/Feb expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 57.5, 60, and 62.5, while puts dominate at 50, 52.5, and 55.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Adani Ports, Vedanta Resources, Softbank Group, Tata Motors, UPL Limited
• In the US, the December personal spending came in above estimates at 0.7% m-o-m (0.5% e / 0.6% revised p), while personal income inched up to 0.4% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.3% p).
• Separately, the PCE price index climbed to 2.6% y-o-y (2.6% e / 2.4% p) and 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.1% p). That said, the core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) was largely stable at 2.8% y-o-y (2.8% e / 2.8% p) and 0.2% m-o-m (0.2% e / 0.1% p).

• SGX IO Futures closed at $105.75/ton on Jan 31, gaining $0.90/ton over the week, with a high of $106.85/ton and a low of $103.50/ton.
• A golden cross formation on Jan 17 signaled a bullish trend, while RSI at 64.97 suggests a possible overbought condition.
• Prices remained in triple digits due to U.S. tariff uncertainties, reduced steel mill capacity, Lunar New Year closures, and weather-related supply disruptions in Australia’s Pilbara region.

• New administration could provide new opportunities.
• With the new Trump 2.0 administration now in control of the US’ domestic and foreign policies, changes to how the federal government will address the energy transition trend and Chinese dominance of the related supply chains could have a profound impact on metal resource developers like TMC, which should be positive for the company and its stakeholders.
• From talking to doing. The Pentagon has yet to deliver its report (originally due March 2024) on the feasibility of processing polymetallic nodules in the US, required by the 2024 NDAA, having potentially slow-walked the project during the previous administration.

• Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 12.9% (vs. 11.8% as of 31 December 2024); GBL, 40% (vs. 40.9%);
• Heineken Holding, 13.2% (vs. 15.8%); Industrivärden C, 3.0% (vs. 5.5%); Investor B, 4.5% (vs. 7.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 36% (vs. 32.2%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.3% (vs. 23%).
• What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).