Energy & Materials Sector

• Highlights ·       VFCS/PEFC certification covers 123,927 ha of rubber plantations ·       PEFC EUDR Due Diligence System shows the way for Vietnam ·       Experts point to offer of premium as new opportunity   In its efforts to align with the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), Vietnam has made significant strides through the Vietnam Forest Certification System (VFCS) and its partnership with the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC).
•   Giving Vietnam Forest Certification Office’s (VFCO’s) insights on navigating EUDR, Dr. Nguyen Hoang Tiep, Deputy Director, VFCO, said at the Vietnam Rubber Dinner 2024 Seminar held at White Palace Convention Centre in Ho Chi Minh City on December 12 that the VFCO-PEFC efforts aim to ensure sustainable forestry practices and facilitate compliance with stringent international requirements for deforestation-free commodities.
•   Vietnam became the 50th member of the PEFC in 2019, marking an important step in integrating international standards into its forestry sector.

• China implementing stimulus measures to boost growth
• Cold weather leading to increased demand for heating fuel oil
• Global oil inventories at record lows, with improving sentiment on China leading to potential increase in domestic demand.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the first time in six weeks, as it fell by 5 to 584 for the week ending 10/Jan.
• For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.56m bpd from 13.57m bpd the week prior.
• U.S. oil rig count fell by 2 to 482 while gas rigs dropped by 3 to 100. Producers cut three rigs in Texas and one each from Utah and Colorado.

• PBF Energy’s latest earnings present a nuanced picture of the company’s current status and future outlook.
• The company reported an adjusted net loss of $1.50 per share and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $60.1 million for the third quarter of 2024.
• This performance reflects a challenging period characterized by weaker market conditions, particularly in terms of refinery margins and crude differentials.

• Schlumberger’s Q4 2024 revenue is expected to increase by 2.6% YoY and EPS by 7.1%. For fiscal 2024, revenue is expected to rise 9.3% YoY and EPS by 14.4%.  
• SLB surpassed analyst EPS projections for the past four consecutive quarters, despite facing headwinds from lower drilling activity in North America and slowing international expenditures.
• SLB completed the construction of the world’s first industrial-scale carbon capture facility in Q4. It also enhanced its digital solutions portfolio and secured major contracts for deepwater operations.

• EDG reported assay results at the northern extent of the highly impressive Eagle Zone and the transition to the deeper Crown Zone.
• Today’s drilling intersected stellar high-grade at-surface intercepts (5.15 g/t Au over 21.6m, 6.51 g/t Au over 14.9m, and 6.20 g/t Au over 7.8m)
• The results included nine drill holes totalling 1,084m. The 2024 drill program is now complete for 7,303m drilled.

• Silgan Holdings Company (Silgan) delivered a mixed performance in its third-quarter 2024 financial results, illustrating both strategic progress and operational challenges.
• A recent highlight for the company is the successful acquisition of Weener Packaging, which adds advanced products and manufacturing capabilities to Silgan’s portfolio.
• The management expects this acquisition to drive organic growth, enhance margins, and generate shareholder value through efficient integration and cost synergies, aiming to return to targeted leverage levels by the end of 2025.

• Matador Resources Company reported its third-quarter 2024 earnings, which showcased several key developments and metrics influencing investor perspectives.
• The integration of the Ameredev assets was emphasized, with the company reporting that this integration is ahead of schedule and exceeding anticipated performance.
• These assets contributed significantly to the production increase seen towards the end of the quarter, primarily driven by new well completions that outperformed initial expectations.

• Teck Resources Limited’s third quarter of 2024 marks a transformative phase as the company evolves into a pure-play energy transition metals entity following the sale of its residual interest in the Steelmaking Coal business.
• This divestiture has substantially fortified Teck’s financial position, yielding USD 7.3 billion in cash and enabling one of the corporation’s most significant shareholder returns in its history.
• These returns include USD 720 million in dividends and share buybacks during the quarter, and over USD 1.3 billion year-to-date.

• Chord Energy reported strong third-quarter 2024 results, demonstrating resilience and operational efficiency amidst challenging conditions, including wildfires in North Dakota.
• The company produced oil volumes at the higher end of its guidance, driven by robust execution, superior well performance, and minimized downtime.
• Capital expenditures were lower than anticipated due to operational efficiencies and timing adjustments.

• The prices of the construction materials stocks collapsed recently, with China National Building Material (3323 HK) holding firm, thanks to the buyback proposal.
• A sustained drop in cement prices and continued weakness in fixed asset investment revealed the challenging demand environment, making CNBM’s offer attractive.
• The buyback price equals 25.7x and 10.8x PERs for FY24F and FY25F, representing a hefty premium over peers. We continue to believe this is a good exit opportunity. 

• Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAGP) reported a strong third quarter for 2024, reflecting continued operational success and strategic initiatives.
• The company is anticipated to reach the top end of its adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year, which ranges from $2.725 billion to $2.775 billion.
• This performance is largely driven by robust oil volumes from the Permian Basin and efficient handling of natural gas liquids (NGLs).

• Veren has reported its third quarter results for 2024, shedding light on both its operational successes and the challenges it faces.
• The company generated excess cash flow of $114 million, with $85 million returned to shareholders.
• A strategic infrastructure transaction was completed for $400 million, and total net debt is expected to be reduced by $1.3 billion by the end of 2024.

• For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 1.8m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
• U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 40 Bcf for the week ending 03/Jan, moderately beating analyst expectations of a 39 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 6.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
• Analysts lowered 12-month PTs on Exxon, BP, Halliburton, TotalEnergies, and SLB. Morgan Stanley upgraded rating on Shell to Overweight and raised PT to USD 79.8 from USD 66.5.

• Frontline plc’s Q3 2024 financial results indicate a complex and challenging environment for the company, characterized by mixed external factors influencing market dynamics.
• The company recorded a profit of $60.5 million for the quarter, translating to $0.27 per share, and an adjusted profit of $75.4 million or $0.34 per share.
• This represents a decline in adjusted profit by $62.8 million from the previous quarter, largely due to decreased time charter equivalent (TCE) earnings which fell from $357.7 million to $292.2 million quarter-over-quarter.

• Highlights ·       Set to finish 2024 with a 30% rise in rubber sale values YoY ·       Exports tires worth US$772.5 million during Jan-Nov 2024 ·       Minister charts course of action for 2025   Cambodia has made impressive strides in 2024, fueled by higher global rubber prices and exceptional progress in its burgeoning tire production and export industry, marking a pivotal step in its transformation into a key player in the global rubber value chain.
•   The Southeast Asian kingdom earned US$472 million from exports of NR latex during January-October 2024, up 22.5% over the same period the previous year.
• On the other hand, it gained US$568 million from exports of the product during January-November 2024, up 26.7% over the same period in 2023.

• SM Energy, an independent energy company engaged in exploration and production, reported its third quarter results for 2024, marked by significant strategic developments and operational highlights.
• The company’s performance this quarter showcases several aspects that are worth examining for investors.
• On the positive side, SM Energy highlighted operational success and welcomed a strategic expansion with the acquisition of assets in the Uinta Basin.

• Headquartered in Mumbai, UPL Limited is a global agrochemical company listed on the Indian stock exchange.
• It is the fifth-largest generic agrochemical company in the world (after Bayer, Dupont, Syngenta and BASF), with revenues of over USD 5.2 bn in FY 2023-24 (following the acquisition of Arysta LifeScience in 2019 for USD 4.2 bn).
• The bond issuer, UPL Corp, is 78% owned by UPL Limited, with TPG and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority each holding 11% stakes. UPL Limited is 27.9% owned by the family of Rajnikant Shroff, who is known as the Crop Protection King.

• Targa Resources Corp. has demonstrated a robust performance during the third quarter of 2024, with record volumes and adjusted EBITDA, suggesting a significant growth trajectory.
• The company’s strategic positioning in volatile markets, a strong Permian Basin presence, and a focus on fee-based or fee floor contracts, primarily in the Gathering and Processing (G&P) segments, have mitigated exposure to commodity price downturns.
• Notably, Targa has invested in long-term growth by expanding its infrastructure and capacity through key projects, such as the construction of new processing plants and sour gas treating facilities in the Permian Delaware Basin, expected to be operational by the upcoming years.

• Shell | 4Q24 trading update disappoints: In 4Q24, Shell posted ‘significantly lower’ results in its Integrated Gas, Chemical and Renewables divisions. This became clear on the back of the yesterday’s issued trading update.
• Odido | IPO expected at some point in 1H25: According to Bloomberg, Apax Partners and Warburg Pincus have selected various banks for an intended IPO of Dutch telecom provider Odido at some point in 1H25.  

• Boise Cascade Company reported its third-quarter financial results for 2024, highlighting the challenges and opportunities it faces within the U.S. construction materials sector.
• Overall, the company’s performance demonstrates resilience in a complex economic environment, with specific insights into the operations of its Wood Products and Building Materials Distribution (BMD) segments.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• The Vietnam Rubber Seminar held on December 12, 2024, saw experts presenting their assessment of challenges facing the Vietnamese rubber sector in complying with the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
• While rubber industry expert Dr. Tran Thi Thuy Hoa, during her holistic survey, offered actionable tips for Vietnamese operators to tackle EUDR, FSC Vietnam Country Manager Vu Thi Que Anh highlighted the role of FSC Certification in meeting the EU Regulation.
• Challenges in EUDR compliance Dr. Tran Thi Thuy Hoa said Vietnam’s rubber supply chain remains both complex and fragmented, which poses substantial challenges for EUDR compliance.

• Tenaz Energy is a debt-free E&P company with low-decline, high-margin natgas assets in the Dutch North Sea
• Led by former CEO Anthony Marino, the company has seen its share price increase significantly and is considered undervalued
• Strong M&A strategy and track record of success, with original asset Leduc-Woodbend now only a small portion of its FCF, highlighting growth potential and attractive valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Vale S.A.’s third quarter 2024 results present a mixed picture, with notable progress and some ongoing challenges.
• New CEO Gustavo Pimenta highlighted the company’s strategic vision, focusing on operational efficiencies, portfolio enhancements, and stakeholder trust.
• These pillars aim to drive Vale back to a competitive position, emphasizing safety, cost efficiency, and quality.

• Eni, a prominent energy company, presented its Q3 2024 financial results during a period marked by volatile energy markets influenced by a mix of fundamentals, geopolitical tensions, and speculative trading.
• The company’s performance objectives centered around maintaining resilient and competitive operations, reinforcing its balance sheet, funding business investments, distributing attractive returns to shareholders, and progressing its strategic initiatives.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Equinor ASA’s recent performance for the third quarter highlights several noteworthy financial and operational metrics, reflecting both strengths and challenges in its strategic execution.
• For the quarter, Equinor reported an adjusted operating income of $6.9 billion before tax and an IFRS net income of $2.3 billion.
• Year-to-date, the company has generated $14 billion in cash flow from operations after tax.

• 3Q24 production was 19,150 bbl/d including 18,938 bbl/d from Bretana and the remainder at Block 131.
• This performance exceeded expectations, as we had anticipated 17,900 bbl/d for Bretana.
• FY24 production at Bretana was 17,733 bbl/d, which is above the guidance of 16.5-17.5 mbbl/d.

• Antero Midstream Corporation, in its third-quarter 2024 investor conference call, provided key insights into its financial performance and strategic outlook.
• The company reported an EBITDA of $256 million, marking a modest 2% increase from the previous year.
• Free cash flow after dividends stood at $40 million, a significant 32% increase year-over-year.

• Following on from the surprise development that China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) had reduced its stake below 5%, I’ve had a few readers asking about hypothetical situations regarding its stake.
• IF Mengniu is a seller, can’t Mengniu simply sell its entire stake to Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF)? Can Mengniu sell to XJF above the Offer Price?
• Both questions are addressed in the Takeovers Code. But only one is permitted.

• Late 2024 Entree Resources (ETG CN) announced it won its arbitration against Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). The vote by the three judges was unanimously in favor of Entree. 
• Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) held its investor day in early December 2024 where almost its entire growth plan for 2025-2030 is predicated on Oyu Tolgoi’s (OT) performance.
• Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) is now backed into a corner to find a solution for OT’s minority shareholder Entree Resources. The most logical outcome? RIO buys ETG in 2025.

• Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)‘s spread to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)‘s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.
• Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. 
• Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete “before mid-2025”; possibly this quarter.

• Yesterday was a crazy day in FX and commodities as seen in chart 1.a. Within the span of 6 hours we had markets trading WaPo the rumour, then reacting to the pushback on the rumour from Trump and then markets calling Trump’s push back a bluff.
• We conclude a couple of things from this.
• Firstly, what we have been saying the last month ever since Trump’s first comments on Canadian tariffs, namely that this is a negotiation tactic to get what he really wants.

• Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition bid for U.S. Steel, announced in December 2023, faced regulatory resistance and was blocked by the Biden administration over national security concerns.
• U.S. Steel’s Big River Steel 2 expansion will double capacity to 6.3 million tons by 2026, contributing over 50% of EBITDA and supporting enhanced free cash flow generation.
• Despite the failed merger, U.S. Steel’s intrinsic value, supported by a $39.75 fair value estimate, easing capex, and reshoring tailwinds, offers a ~19% upside from the $33.30 closing price.

• Tire production volumes are declining
• Major tire manufacturers are closing/withdrawing from the Chinese truck tire market
• Emerging competitors are expanding capacity, challenging established suppliers 

• Record 4Q24 production was 26.1 mbbl/d, which is in line with our expectations.
• Net cash at YE24 was US$259 mm, exceeding our forecasts by US$34 mm.
• This reflects a 0.56 mmbbl reduction in oil inventory during 4Q24 (1.2 mmbbl at the end of September versus 0.64 mmbbl at the end of December).

• Westlake Corporation’s third-quarter 2024 financial results present a complex mix of achievements and challenges that potential investors must consider.
• The company reported net sales of $3.1 billion, with an EBITDA of $580 million and a net income of $183 million or $1.41 per share.
• These results were impacted by significant maintenance issues and strategic decisions, offering insights into both the resilience and the vulnerabilities within Westlake’s operations.

• We recommend to “BUY” on the new YPFAR 2034 at 8.5%
• We believe these bonds offer an appealing yield within YPF’s debt capital structure and are currently trading wide relative to the broader LatAm BB and EM BB curves
• Pricing is expected today, with initial price talk around 8.75%, and now guided at 8.5%.

• Quite a lot of new news to digest – GAPack (468 HK)‘s IFA, not altogether surprisingly, concluded that shareholders should not accept the Offer – in bold, red caps. 
• But more surprisingly, is the disclosure announcement that China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) has reduced its stake below 5%.  
• Evidently Mengniu is keeping its options open to tender – or not – and not have to make public disclosures. Keep an eye out on CCASS movements.

• SGX IO Futures closed USD 0.35/ton lower for the week ending on 03/Jan. It traded in a range of USD 4.35/ton, which was smaller than the prior week.
• For the week ending 03/Jan, China’s port iron ore stockpiles rose 0.2% WoW to 145.22 million tons, while daily imported ore pick-up volume fell 47k tons to 3.08 million tons.
• FIIs hold a net long position of 130.6k lots across all futures and options expiries. Managed Money and Physical market participants are net short by 19.6k and 82.1k lots, respectively.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) will increase production from 1.4 to 4.1 million tons annually in early CY25, placing it at 2.5x PE/0.3x EV-EBITDA FY26e (~100 USD/ton iron ore px assumption). 
• On our estimates, if the company pays no dividend and capex is 60 mn AUD in both FY25 and FY26, net cash>market capitalization. (Conclusion: Board Pays Dividend)
• We will look for the next quarterly production update for more color this month. Read our last update Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts 

• The Mopane-2A well at PEL-83 found a hydrocarbon column of gas-condensate in AVO-3 with a thin net pay in the reservoir sweet spot.
• Encountering AVO-3 at Mopane-2A confirms the lateral extent of the reservoir.
• The thin net pay is in line with the geological model.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Hongqiao, Adani Green Energy, Fosun International
• In the US, the final services PMI for December 2024 edged up to 56.8 (56.1 p), while the composite PMI rose to 55.4 (54.9 p). Separately in November, factory orders declined 0.4% (-0.3% e / 0.5% revised p), and the final durable goods orders fell 1.2% (-0.5% e / -1.1% p).
• Long-end treasury yields climbed, with the UST curve bear-steepening after a weak auction of 3Y notes and amid a large supply of US corporate bond issuances.

• The FAO Food Price Index stood at 127.0 points in December 2024, down 0.6 points (0.5%) from its November level.

• The index stood 8.0 points (6.7%) above its corresponding level one year ago, yet remained 33.2 points (20.7%) below the peak reached in March 2022.

• While the news is dominated by sky-high cocoa and coffee prices, you can clearly see from the data that on the one hand, vegetable oil prices were a primary driver of higher food prices throughout the year. 

• Pulsar is raising up to US$7.5 mm of new equity at a price of U$0.38 (£0.30 equivalent) per share which is higher than the closing price of £0.26 per share the day prior to the announcement.
• University Bank from Michigan will also provide a line of credit of up to US$4.0 mm to Pulsar’s major shareholder ABCrescent enabling ABC to exercise its 15.5 mm share purchase warrants at an exercise price of C$0.36 per share.
• Overall, Pulsar could receive a total of up to US$11.5 mm in new equity.

• Triton production resumed on 27 December 2024 following a shut-down of about three weeks, within the guidance of two to four weeks.
• There was brief period of unscheduled downtime at Bruce due to a subsea intervention associated with the Rhum field.
• Production at Bruce has now resumed.

• Fineotex Chemical is a small mid cap business in India with a $480 million enterprise value, listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange since 2011
• The author predicts the stock to multiply 5x in the next decade and outperform the Sensex and NIFTY indices
• Fineotex is a specialty chemical manufacturer with strong growth potential, increased production capacity, and a wide export network, positioning it for long-term success.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)‘s largest customer, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder. Mengniu opposes the Shandong Xinjufeng offer. 
• This development suggests that Mengniu has low confidence in a management competing offer and will likely shift its business away from GA Pack.
• The stake sale will help the Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) offer turn unconditional as it will nudge minorities to tender, partly due to GA Pack’s uncertain outlook.  

• NPS’s stake has dropped, and most minority shareholders are passive. NPS might oppose cumulative voting, so Choi’s chances of getting 67% support at the EGM on the 23rd are slim.
• The showdown is between MBK’s 14 picks and Choi’s 7. Without cumulative voting, even with NPS’s shares, Choi’s chances of beating MBK are slim.
• If you’re short on Korea Zinc, holding seems fine. Backwardation in Jan-Feb futures isn’t steep, so a new position before the EGM could also be worth a shot.

• The U.S. oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the fourth straight week at 589 for the week ending on 03/Jan.
• For the week ending 27/Dec, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.57m bpd from 13.59m bpd the week prior.
• The U.S. oil rig count declined by one to 482, while active gas rigs increased by one to 103. Producers added one rig in Texas and cut one in Louisiana.

• Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.
• Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.
• Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.

• Farmer body asks farmers not to go for ‘summer tapping’
• Rubber Board exhorts farmers to up tapping to discourage imports
• Farmers allege Rubber Board catering to interests of tire-makers

• Synergy Green Industries (SYGIL IN) Expansion of foundry to add new capacity to supply new customers (Envision). Company plans to increase its capacity from 30,000 MT to 45,000 MT.
• Machining unit to help improve margins as 50% of total machining would be done in-house. Solar power to add to EBITDA margins as electricity costs account for 8% of revenue. 
• Execution by management has been commendable due to experience in the industry.

• WTI futures rose 4.8% for the week ending 03/Jan, led by improving outlook on China and declining U.S. crude oil stockpiles.   
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.03 from 0.97 (27/Dec) last week, as call volume grew by 57.9% WoW while put volume increased by 68.1%.   
• WTI OI PCR rose to 0.93 from 0.89 last week. Call OI inched up by 4.1% WoW, while put OI rose by 8.9%. 

• This morning, China Hongqiao held a roadshow to market USD benchmark-sized three-year RegS bonds.
• The expected issuance size is USD 300-400 mn (capped at USD 400 mn).
• The order book is reported at USD 2 bn (including USD 395 mn interest from the 15 joint global coordinators).

• U.S. natural gas prices dipped 0.9% for the week ending 03/Jan, as robust early-week gains were eroded by volatile weather forecasts.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio jumped to 1.37 from 1.05 (27/Dec) the previous week as call volumes increased by 86.4% WoW, while put volumes surged by 141.6%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.87 from 0.85 compared to last week. Call OI inched up by 4.9% WoW, while put OI increased by 8.5%.

• • Tariki-5A has been perforated over the top 8 m of the 20 m of gas bearing sands intersected.
• Gas sales have commenced.
• • The well initially flowed at estimated rates increasing from 2 to 5.5 mmcf/d during clean-up.

• All Pre-Conditions of Newjf’s Offer have been satisfied. Based on Offer Document, the latest date for posting of the Response Document is Jan.7, 2025. First Closing Date is Jan.21, 2025.
• Newjf will make every effort to complete the acquisition and regain the control of international business so as to protect shareholders’ interests.So, the logic behind the deal is very solid.
• Mengniu’s attitude could be positive. A higher management offer seems more out of reach because the management lacks sincerity. We advise investors not to walk away from Newjf’s Offer easily.

• Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during 2024. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 11.8% (vs. 50.8% as of Y/E 2023); GBL, 40.9% (vs. 37.4%); Heineken Holding, 15.8% (vs. 16.7%);
• Industrivärden C, 5.5% (vs. 5.5%); Investor B, 4.5% (vs. 12.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 32.2% (vs. 36.6%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 23% (vs. 24.2%).
• What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).

• We expect copper demand to have ended FY24 at around 27.1 million tons (up 4% year over year). FY25 could be an interesting year in which copper demand outstrips supply. 
• We expect China to have about 15.3 million tons of demand (flattish year over year) in FY24. The stimulus will be crucial for growth in overall copper FY25 demand.
• We continue to expand our coverage of pure copper play names, with our favorites being Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 

• We expect iron ore to remain rangebound between 90 and 110 USD/ton in FY25, which is in line with the band it has maintained over the past six months. 
• Iron ore players like Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) can maintain high single-digit dividend yields at USD 100/ton. We see short-term opportunities in these names.
• For small-cap specialists, check out our research on Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Positive Developments At Iron Ridge And Other Catalysts. The company (trailing 5x PE) is poised to triple its production.

• The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
• In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the March 2025 index rebal event.
• Currently, we expect no deletions (but one is pretty close) and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be US$208mn.

• The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the March 2025 index rebal event.
• Currently, we see one change for T50 and one change for T100 but there are two more months to the base date and our expectations may change before then.