Energy & Materials Sector

• Back on the 6th December 2023, packaging play CPMC Holdings (906 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer of $6.87/share, in cash, from SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion.
• The Offer Document is now out. This is not a Composite Document. A “Response Document” is expected in two weeks, which will include the IFA opinion. 
• All the above is moot. ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)‘s superior HK$7.21/share Offer is currently navigating the necessary regulatory approvals. With irrevocables, ORG has 46.44% in the bag.

• Changping Industrial’s offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) opens at an unchanged HK$6.87, 4.7% below ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)’s competing HK$7.21 offer. 
• Changping Industrial thinks deal fatigue may tip the balance in its favour. However, minorities will call Changping’s bluff, as the offer at current terms has a low chance of success. 
• Despite the current posturing, Changping Industrial will likely need to bump above ORG’s offer marginally to succeed. Expect more twists and turns in this contested battle. 

• The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
• In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s estimation of the latest ranks of potential ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in September 2024.
• We have been tracking these movements for several months and it seemed like index changes were unlikely to take place but our expectations have changed now.

• Fed is expected to start easing cycle in September, potentially leading to a bullish trend for gold and silver
• Structural factors such as US fiscal deficit concerns, central bank reserve diversification, and geopolitical risks could continue to support gold prices
• Chinese physical gold demand has cooled, but other factors like western ETF demand and potential Indian import duty reduction may provide support for gold prices

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• TotalEnergies missed Q2 revenue and EPS estimates by 7.3% and 7.2%, respectively, with a 7.4% YoY drop in net profit due to contracting refining margins.
• TotalEnergies’ hydrocarbon production hit 2.44 mboe/d in Q2, near the top of its guidance. Projects production in Q3 at 2.4-2.49 mboe/d.
• In Q2, TotalEnergies generated USD 7.8 billion in cash flow and completed USD 2 billion in buybacks. Authorized up to USD 2 billion in buybacks for Q3.

• Surge in demand for packaging products and healthcare supplies
• Strong long-term growth prospects
• Attractive investment opportunity with history of acquisitions, minimal equity issuance, and low valuation at 7x 2023 FCF

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess CABB’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Environmental and Governance scores, while the Social score is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.

• Trigon announced its Q4/24 and FY24 financial results marking the completion of a transformational year for the Company.
• With just a small amount of underground production included in the Q4 numbers, costs have already started to decrease with C1 cash costs coming in at $3.31/lb vs. $3.81 for the full fiscal year.
• The failed pump has been replaced and most importantly, mining activities were not affected by the short dewatering issue.

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Fedrigoni’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Environmental and Social scores. Governance is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”. 

Fedrigoni received a Platinum medal from Ecovadis in 2022 and 2023, which places it in the Top 1% of companies assessed. This is an improvement from the Gold medal received in 2021. 

In addition, the company received a score of 59/100 in 2022 and 61/100 in 2023 from S&P (Top 15% in the Paper & Forest Products sector), which evaluated the integration level of ESG factors in policies and practices to mitigate risk as well as maximise opportunities.

• The Tariki-5 well continues to be expected to spud in early September.
• Drilling operations are expected to take 28 days with production starting in late October or early November.
• Initial production is expected to be around 6-8 mmcf/d growing to 20 mmcf/d within 10 months once New Zealand Energy has upgraded its facilities to comply with current safety and production standards.

• An undisclosed shareholder is looking to raise US$1.25bn (A$1.91bn) from selling some stake in Fortescue Metals (FMG AU).
• The deal is a large one to digest at 13 days of the stock’s three month ADV. The selling shareholder will be locked up for 45 days.
• In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

• The review period for the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index ends in August. The changes will be announced mid-September and implemented at the close on 27 September.
• Four potential constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 16% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.71bn (US$80m).
• Three of the four potential deletions are due to a change in the index universe and there will be selling from other passive trackers too.

• US oil and gas rig count increased by three to 589 for the week ending 26/Jul, rising for the second consecutive week.
• US oil rig count rose by 5 to 482, marking the first increase since May. Gas rigs fell by 2 to 101, following a rise of 3 the previous week.
• In July, the total US rig count increased by 8, the first monthly rise since February and the largest since November 2022.

• Commodity Popcorn Markets During the week, I saw a tweet by the legendary commodities trader Peter Brandt.
• The technical part of Kucrop Analytics institutional commodity research arm is heavily influenced by Peter Brands Research, as well as Larry Williams Research.

• Both look at markets very different and have a strong track record.

• Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. reported solid second-quarter 2024 financial results, crediting its encouraging performance mainly to robust cash flow generation that has been bolstered by increased shipments, sustained cost-reduction initiatives, and successful inventory level management.
• The company’s substantial reduction of its net debt balance to $3.4 billion, achieved by applying 65% of the quarter’s $362 million in free cash flow towards debt reduction, was a highlight of the period.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Freeport-McMoRan’s second quarter results underscore both strengths and areas for further improvement within its operations and strategic initiatives.
• As a dominant player in the copper industry, the company continues to benefit from strong global demand for copper, essential for various sectors like electrification and renewable energies.
• Freeport-McMoRan highlights robust EBITDA of $2.7 billion and an impressive $2 billion in operating cash flow, driven by steady production volumes and recovering commodity prices.

• Nucor Corporation, a leading manufacturer of high-performance steel products, reported its second quarter results.
• The company’s earnings decreased quarter-on-quarter to $2.68 per diluted share while year-to-date earnings stood at $6.14 per diluted share.
• A key determinant of the declining earnings was lower average selling prices in both the steel mills and steel product segments.

• Sherwin-Williams Company has reported robust results for the second quarter of 2024, showcasing growth in sales and margins across its segments.
• The company emphasized strong execution amid a complex macroeconomic climate, reflecting a persistent trend throughout their financial performance.
• Notably, Sherwin Williams has proactively managed the ongoing shifts in market demands while strategically positioning itself to capitalize on future growth opportunities.

• The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
• SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading. Hang Seng down again, A-shares down more. Bank buying minimal. 
• AH Premia fell 30bp on average. 1% for Liquid names. HK vs A-shares saw an even wider spread (the opposite of last week). SUPER-tight AH premia saw best H outperformance.

• BP expects lower realised refining margins and weak oil trading to hurt earnings, with a refining margin contraction to reduce earnings by USD 500-700 million.
• The company anticipates impairments ranging from USD 1-2 billion in Q2, including charges related to the ongoing review of its Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany.
• BP projects its upstream production to remain broadly flat sequentially, with stable oil output and a slight decrease in gas and low-carbon energy production.

• Steel Dynamics achieved notable results in the second quarter of 2024, with some mixed performances across different operational aspects.
• The company saw total revenues of $4.6 billion, a slight decline from the previous quarter, primarily attributed to a fall in steel prices which more than offset the stable shipment volumes.
• Correspondingly, there was a contraction in the steel metal spread which resulted in a 26% reduction in operating income, totaling $559 million, compared to the previous quarter.

• Kinder Morgan Inc. recently discussed various insights and forecasts regarding its business and the broader market context in which it operates.
• The company provided a detailed analysis of trends and operational activities, revealing both positive developments and challenges.
• This summary outlines the central points that might influence investment decisions related to Kinder Morgan.

• Alcoa’s revenue increased sequentially to $2.9 billion, driven by higher alumina and aluminum prices.
• In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue saw a 5% rise due to increased average realized prices, despite lower shipments.
• The Aluminum segment reported a 16% increase in third-party revenue, attributed to higher prices and increased shipments.

• Koninklijke Vopak Nv (VPK NA) & Shaftesbury PLC (SHB LN) are currently passing the entry rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund demands are $22m-$34m and 3-5 ADV. 
• Indivior PLC (INDV LN) is currently the only one below the exit rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund supply is $11.5m and 1.4 ADV.
• ‘Most liquid stock’ criterion can cause a ‘switch‘ of share lines in the index as it happened with Lindt (LISP SW) and Lindt (LISN SW) in September 2022. 

• Halliburton Company reported a total revenue of $5.8 billion for the second quarter, maintaining flat sequential growth.
• The company’s operating margin stood at 18%, representing a sequential increase of 69 basis points.
• International revenue reached $3.4 billion, marking an 8% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by a strong performance in Latin America, which saw a 10% increase.

• Revenue increased to JPY3.1bn (+8.3% YoY), with operating profit at JPY149mn (+173.2% YoY) and net income at JPY271mn (+127.3% YoY).
• Revenue from plating chemicals for PCBs and semiconductor substrates was JPY1.5bn (+75.1% YoY), with stable sales for generative AI.
• Revenue from plating chemicals for connectors was JPY444mn (-27.7% YoY), while revenue for lead frames was JPY1.1bn (-12.7% YoY).

• PPG Industries, a global supplier of paints, coatings, and specialty materials, reported their second quarter 2024 financial results highlighting an all-time record earning per share (EPS) of $2.50 that signified an 11% year-over-year growth.
• Despite increasingly challenging macroeconomic conditions, the company posted sales of $4.8 billion, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year segment margin improvement.
• However, their aggregate volumes in the quarter remained flat year-over-year, falling below their initial expectations due to weak demand in Europe and global automobile manufacturing.

• Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.
• Oklo Inc (OKLO US) and Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp (WUC CN) will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$486m.
• There are only 4 trading days to implementation of the changes and we’d watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.

• There is 1 constituent change for the LQ45 Index and 2 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 July.
• The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Central Asia (BBCA), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI) and Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR). 
• The adds have moved higher over the recent past and are near their highs while the deletes have dropped over the last few years and are trading near their lows.

• US crude inventories fell for the fourth straight week, with a 3.7 mb drawdown. Gasoline stocks dropped by 5.6 mb, the largest decline since March.
• As of 19/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 16.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.
• TotalEnergies’ Q2 revenue fell 5.2% YoY, missing estimates by 7.3%. EPS dropped 7.5% YoY and missed estimates by 7.2%.

• Graphite One Inc. (GPH:TSXV, GPHOF:OTC) is a Canadian development company focused on owning the entire graphite supply chain, through the production of natural and artificial graphite.
• GPH’s strategy is two-pillared with its Graphite Creek mining project in Alaska and its proposed Advanced Anode Manufacturing Facility in Ohio, both at the feasibility study stage.
• The anode facility will produce anode materials primarily used in lithium-ion EVs. Graphite, being a U.S. Government-listed critical mineral and its supply currently dominated by China, poses domestic supply risks and a recent $37.5M grant from the U.S. Department of Defense, gives us confidence in Graphite One bringing these projects into production.

• Bellevue is raising capital through a placement and share purchase plan at a discount to the last close
• The purpose of the capital raise is to pay off debt and fund future growth, with operational pressure and hedges in place
• The company is shifting to a long-term growth story, with guidance for increased production and costs going forward

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• We are updating our estimates to reflect actual 2Q24 NYMEX reference prices of $80.66/bbl for oil and $2.32/MMBtu for natural gas.
• Oil accounts for 78% of our 2Q24 oil production estimate and 98% of our 2Q24 revenue estimate.
• Management’s FY24 production outlook is 43.0-47.0 MBOE/d (Figure 1). 1Q24 production averaged 49.7 MBOE/d (80% oil). 

• IMPP is a shipping company that spun off in May 2021 with 4 ships, raising $140 million through 5 offerings
• Company has a strong balance sheet with net tangible equity of $360 million, over $140 million in net cash and $40-50 million in earnings power
• Shorting IMPP is effectively shorting cash with 3.8 million shares sold short and a borrow rate of -45%, potential for high returns with possible target stock price of $7-8 later in the year

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• ADX has confirmed a very busy programme of activity from September.
• The overall unrisked value of the programme is ~A$1.70 per share, which represents 17x the current share price.
• In early September, ADX will drill the Anshof-2A side track.

• Ionic Rare Earths Ltd (ASX:IXR) is a rare earths mining explorer (Uganda) and REO magnet recycling company (Belfast, UK).
• ACF visited IonicTech’s magnet recycling demo plant in Belfast yesterday, July 2024.
• IXR has a unique position in the REE recycling ecosystem.

• Goliath Resources provides investors exposure to gold-silver-copper resource exploration and leverage to an increasing in-ground inventory with discovery upside during a gold price market that is reaching new all-time highs.
• The Company is focused on expanding its resource target model tonnage at the Surebet prospect and making additional discoveries on its 64 km2 Golden Triangle property.
• A 15,000m drill program and continued surface exploration are underway for the summer of 2024.

• On 15 July, the precondition for Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) was satisfied, but the despatch of the offer document was delayed until or before 30 July.
• Since ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) announced its HK$7.21 offer on 7 June, the shares have traded above Changping Industrial’s offer on all but bar one trading day
• Changping Industrial has three options: launch at unchanged terms (low probability), match ORG’s offer (medium probability) or bump marginally higher than ORG’s offer (high probability).

• Since all the Pre-Conditions have been fulfilled, Baosteel has taken a solid step towards the successful acquisition of CPMC. Comparatively, ORG could encounter resistance and uncertainties in the upcoming process.
• The acquisition of CPMC by ORG cannot be completed by ORG and Zhang Wei alone.Without the “nod” of COFCO/SASAC, what ORG’s going to do is equivalent to a “hostile takeover”. 
• ORG’s acquisition of control of CPMC could go against the national strategy of “building strong alliances between SOEs”. In fact, what ORG wants is for Baosteel to raise its Offer.

• Chevron’s Q2 revenue is set to dip 0.6% YoY, with EPS projected to drop 4.5% YoY on the back of lower refinery margins and natural gas prices.
• Higher Brent crude prices and strong production may help Chevron partially offset Q2’s challenges.
• Unplanned downtime at two Australian LNG plants during Q2 raises concerns about a drop in production.

• The lack of specific stimulus from China’s 3rd plenary meeting and minor rate cuts led to a 2.5% decline in iron ore prices, highlighting market disappointment.
• Despite a 13.7% MoM increase in iron ore imports, market concerns arise from stockpile accumulation rather than domestic consumption, suggesting potential future import slowdown.
• SGX Iron Ore options showed a bearish trend with a weekly volume put/call ratio of 2.1 and notable put option increases for September and October expiries, indicating market pessimism.

Since our last update note on 20 May, Alkane has announced 1) the results of its scoping study on the Boda-Kaiser project, 2) FY24 production of 57,217oz Au at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance of A$2,150–2,350/oz, 3) an updated five-year mining plan at Tomingley and 4) regional exploration results from the Northern Molong Porphyry Project (NMPP). This note updates our valuation of the company for each of these developments, of which the most important are the results of the Boda-Kaiser scoping study.

• Southern Copper (SCCO US) posted a 6% EBITDA beat and a 17% EPS beat buoyed by higher pricing of copper and by-products
• Sales/EBITDA/Profit increased by 35.5%/61%/72% YoY. It also guided a positive outlook for copper, highlighting a tightening of the physical market boding well for future quarters. 
• The board paid a 1.20 USD/share quarterly dividend in 50:50 scrip/cash. It will probably continue this practice, considering the elevated capex/ debt repayment of 500 mn USD in April 2025.

• We believe Anhui Conch is near the end of a prolonged downturn. Earnings should have bottomed out in 1Q24, with highly visible sequential Q/Q improvements throughout the rest of 2024.
• The recovery is not demand-driven but cost-led as implementation of new national standards resulting in higher production costs led to industry-wide price-hikes, benefiting Anhui Conch the low-cost producer.
• We see mild rebound in cement demand in 2025 will pave the way for further price hikes, reinforce the company’s earnings recovery and catalyze valuation expansion.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• JSW Steel Ltd
• Vista Land & Lifescapes

• Schlumberger’s revenue grew 12.9% YoY and beat estimates by 0.7%, while its net profit rose by 7.65% YoY and beat estimates by 2.9%.
• Revenue from North America grew 3% sequentially but fell 6% YoY due to lower drilling activity in the US.
• Management expects low single-digit sequential revenue growth in Q3 2024 and free cash flow in H2 2024 to be higher than in H1 2024.

• Halliburton’s Q2 revenue rises by 0.6% YoY, held back by an 8% YoY decline in revenue from North America. It missed its revenue estimates by 1.9%.
• Strong performance from the international operations more than offset the slowdown in North America. Revenue from international markets rose 8% YoY.
• For 2024, Halliburton forecasts a 10% YoY increase in international revenue, while North American revenue is expected to decline by 6-8% YoY.

• Weatherford International delivered another strong quarter, driven by significant year-over-year growth in revenue and improved operational efficiencies.
• The company reported a 15% increase in revenue compared to the same period last year, with the international business showing remarkable strength, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia regions, which grew by 32%.
• Sequentially, revenue remained flat, which is notable given the typical seasonal decline expected in the first quarter.

• Range Resources Corporation showcased a robust set of financial and operational results in the first quarter of 2024, as detailed in the recent update.
• The company’s strategic initiatives have been closely aligned with industry demands and market conditions, facilitating a balanced approach towards capital allocation, operational efficiency, and shareholder returns.
• Range Resources reported successful operational outcomes with a focus on driving operational improvements and efficiency across the board.

• Antero Resources continues to exhibit operational efficiency and capital discipline, as evidenced by their recent performance and strategic initiatives.
• In the first quarter of 2024, Antero Resources delivered significant improvements in drilling and completion efficiencies.
• The company averaged 5.4 days per 10,000 lateral feet drilled, a slight improvement from 5.5 days in 2023, and achieved a quarterly record of 11.3 completion stages per day.

• 2Q24 production was 35,608 boe/d, which is in line with 2Q24 but below April production of ~37.5 mboe/d, as the company has experienced sporadic blockades and weather-associated flooding at Llanos 34.
• As a result production in Colombia was only 33,956 boe/d (we forecasted 35.5 mboe/d).
• The waterflood programme now generates 3.7 mbbl/d.

• Transocean reported adjusted EBITDA of $199 million on $767 million of adjusted contract drilling revenues for the first quarter, achieving an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 26%.
• Despite a slowdown in contract awards compared to last year, demand for high-specification ultra-deepwater drillships and harsh environment semisubmersibles remains robust, with improving day rates and longer contract terms.
• The company announced a 365-day contract extension for the Deepwater Asgard in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, valued at approximately $195 million, and a contract for additional wells on the Deepwater Atlas at a day rate of $505,000.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Anton Oilfield

• US oil and gas rig count increased by two to 586 for the week ending 19/Jul, rising for the second time in the last three weeks.  
• US oil rig count fell by 1 to 477, declining for the second straight week. Gas rigs rose by 3 to 103, after falling by one the week prior.
• The EIA has increased its US crude production forecasts in its latest STEO report, raising them by 0.8% YoY for 2024 and 0.4% YoY for 2025. 

• ACME Solar Holdings (1700918D IN) is looking to raise US$360m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are ICICI, JM Financial, Kotak, Nuvama Wealth and Motilal Oswal.
• ACME Solar (ACME) is a renewable energy firm with a portfolio of solar, wind, hybrid and firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) projects.
• As per CRISIL, the firm was among the top 10 renewable energy players in India in terms of operational capacity as of FY24. 

• Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supply
• Copper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA tool
• It’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion

• Following our insight, Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality, Mongolian Mining (975 HK) has released its Q2 2024 operational numbers. 
• For Q2, the sales of coking coal products increased by 47% YoY and for H1 by 25% YoY. HCC was only 63% of the product mix (vs 87% in H1FY23).
• Based on our numbers, the stock trades at 5.6x FY24 PE and 2.6x EV-EBITDA. We await the H1 FY23 results and clarity on the dividend catalyst in August. 

• Chariot has raised US$6.4 mm of new equity (US$7 mm before expenses) priced at 6.5 p per share.
• Management and insiders have contributed ~US$1 mm to the raise.
• The company was initially looking to raise only US$6 mm (before expenses) but the fundraising was oversubscribed.

• Short Centrus and long Silex Systems and Cameco to hedge against commodity price and uranium enrichment hype risk
• Centrus underperforming and expected to trade lower due to potential ban on Russian imports
• Long positions in Cameco and Silex Systems could offset risks and benefit from increased demand for Western enrichers

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Boise has transformed under new management since spinning off from OfficeMax in 2013
• Strategic acquisitions and investments have shifted focus towards higher-margin products
• Repurposing lumber/plywood capacity for engineered products and closer integration between segments have positioned Boise for strong cash flow returns

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.
• The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.
• On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.

• Since announcing Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)’s pre-conditional voluntary offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) at HK$2.65 per share, the gross spread has increased. 
• The Board’s strategy is to rally shareholders against a hostile offer. However, the recent AGM protest votes suggest that the Board cannot easily thwart the offer. 
• Shandong Xinjufeng’s renewed efforts to secure Board representation suggest that its offer is in trouble. Meanwhile, China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) seems disinclined to engage in a bidding war. 

• Copper retreated by more than 5% due to China’s weak print on TSF. The plenum’s lack of concrete stimulus measures also did not help matters. 
• Check out our initiation, Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play, where we provide our long-term bullish outlook on copper. 
• Also, see our initiation, Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own. The company reported a stellar Q2 FY24, beating the street estimates by 20%.

• Shift to the right in favor of Trump accelerated after assassination attempt
• Republican momentum challenging expectations for a divided Congress
• Gold and oil likely to benefit under GOP control, with potential increase in demand and production respectively

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Iron ore has remained rangebound between 95 and 130 USD/ton for three years, with cost-curve support kicking in on the higher cost curve at around 100 USD/ton.
• Last week, quarterly operational updates released were for Vale, BHP, Kumba, and Mount Gibson. Except for BHP, all companies were disappointed due to provisional pricing impacts and mix changes.
• Read our recent production preview Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24, to be declared on the 25th of July.